策略 | 2024 年 5 月 24 日 建银国际证券|研究部 香港市场流动性报告 (2024 年 5 月) 过去一个月，我们的香港市场流动性指数保持正 值。支撑指数的是人民币走强。拖累指数的是对 SOFR 有利的 SOFR/HIBOR 息差扩大和新兴市场资 金流走弱。 成交量显示出强劲的复苏迹象。过去一个月日均 成交额约为 1,307 亿港元，环比增长 22.6%，同比 增长 30.3%。 上个月，流动性指数与恒生指数之间的差值再次 下滑，最近已被证明是市场反弹的前兆，上一次 出现是在 2008 年。 赵文利 邹炜 焦点图：我们的累计差值支撑市场强劲反弹。 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 建银国际资金流动指数与恒生指数走势差（未平滑，累计值）, 左轴 7/07 8/08 9/10 8/11 5/14 8/15 12/20 2/18 2/17 3/20 2/21 3/22 10/ ...

Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a recovery momentum with a projected GDP growth of 5.2% for 2024[18] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to drive mid-term growth, supported by government policies and global trade recovery[18] - Employment growth is expected to continue, although it remains below pre-pandemic levels[24] Policy and Reform Focus - The upcoming Third Plenary Session is expected to emphasize high-quality growth, innovation, and risk prevention[2] - Key areas of focus include fiscal reform, employment support, and energy transition policies[2] - The government plans to maintain a supportive fiscal stance, with an increase in budget deficits to stimulate growth[67] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales are projected to stabilize at 800-900 million square meters annually over the next 1-2 years, with a gradual recovery expected by 2026[15] - The impact of the real estate sector on economic growth is expected to diminish as supportive policies take effect[23] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade frictions remain significant risks, with a potential restructuring of regional supply chains[3] - Asia's share in global supply chains has increased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[30] - The extreme scenario of "Trump tariffs 2.0" could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1% and Chinese growth by 0.7% over several years[31] Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate slightly to 7.0 against the USD by year-end, influenced by U.S. monetary policy shifts[19] - Core inflation is projected to rise gradually, with CPI expected to reach 2.5% by 2025[50]

CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH April economic data was mixed, consistent with a gradual recovery. Industrial production has benefited from support for domestic demand and improved external demand, as strong manufacturing investment has sustained. Despite soft retail sales growth in April, we expect spending on catering, travel, and entertainment to continue to support a consumption recovery. Policy measures expected to remain supportive. The issuance of special sovereign bonds provided fiscal support for infras ...

建银国际证券 4 本文作者谨此声明：（i）本文发表的所有观点均正确地反映作者有关任何及所有提及的证券或发行人的个人观点，并以独立方式撰写；（ii）其报酬 没有任何部分曾经，目前或将来会直接或间接与本文发表的特定建议或观点有关；及（iii）该等作者没有获得与所提及的证券或发行人相关且可能 影响该等建议的内幕信息／非公开的价格敏感数据。本文作者进一步确定（i）他们或其各自的关联人士（定义见证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌 人或注册人操守准则）没有在本文发行日期之前的 30 个历日内曾买卖或交易过本文所提述的股票，或在本文发布后 3 个工作日（定义见《证券及 期货条例》（香港法例第 571 章））内将买卖或交易本文所提述的股票；（ii）他们或其各自的关联人士并非本文提述的任何公司的雇员；及（iii）他 们或其各自的关联人士没有拥有本报告提述的证券的任何金融利益。 建银国际证券 ｜宏观研究 宏观月报 – 2024 年 4 月: 联储转鹰但年内仍可能降息，上调中国增长预测 Monthly Economic Data Wrap – Apr 2024: Fed turns hawkish but a cut remains l ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK) with an expected return of over 10% in the next 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is entering a strong profit growth phase driven by globalization and product innovation, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67% in overseas revenue over the past three years [2]. - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of a 22% profit CAGR from 2024 to 2026 [2]. - The initial target price is set at HKD 6.90, based on a forecasted earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.57 for 2024 and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 41,631 - 2023: 47,075 - 2024F: 56,593 (20.2% YoY growth) - 2025F: 64,192 (13.4% YoY growth) - 2026F: 73,089 (13.9% YoY growth) [3] - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 2,306 - 2023: 3,506 - 2024F: 4,722 (34.7% YoY growth) - 2025F: 5,608 (18.8% YoY growth) - 2026F: 6,422 (14.5% YoY growth) [3] - Diluted EPS (in RMB): - 2022: 0.27 - 2023: 0.42 - 2024F: 0.57 (34.7% YoY growth) - 2025F: 0.68 (18.8% YoY growth) - 2026F: 0.78 (14.5% YoY growth) [3] - Dividend (in RMB): - 2024F: 0.33 - 2025F: 0.39 - 2026F: 0.44 [3] Market Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 12-month expected return of 18% [6]. - Absolute performance over the last 12 months is 40%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 52% [8].

Core Insights - The report indicates that major tech companies are expected to face negative sentiment as they prepare to release earnings, with investors interpreting the lack of preliminary forecasts as a sell signal [1] - Geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly in the Middle East, leading to increased market volatility, with the VIX index reaching a six-month high [1] - The report suggests that investors should take profits in the U.S. stock market and wait for buying opportunities, particularly in precious metals, as adjustments are expected to continue into April and May [2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals have seen significant gains over the past 30 days, with silver up 12.4% and gold up 9.1%, driven by geopolitical tensions [3] - Oil prices have also strengthened, with Brent crude increasing by 4.9% and WTI by 4.5% [3] - Industrial metals are rebounding due to demand recovery, with aluminum up 9.7% and copper up 4.2% [3] Bond Market - The report notes a divergence in 10-year government bond yields, with most developed markets experiencing increases, while yields in Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and China have decreased [3] Stock Market Analysis - U.S. stock valuations have reverted to historical averages after being approximately one standard deviation above [3] - The report highlights that sectors such as energy and communication services have led the market, both up 6.0%, while utilities have increased by 2.0% [3] - The report indicates that stocks remain near their highest levels relative to cash since 2000 [3] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is shifting from bullish to bearish, with a decrease in bullish investors from 52% to 43% over the past month [14] - The put-call ratio has increased from 0.62 to 0.67, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [14] - The report suggests that after recent market corrections, there may be signs of recovery in the U.S. stock market in the coming months [14] Economic Outlook - The report discusses the impact of strong U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have diminished hopes for early interest rate cuts [12] - Seasonal factors related to the upcoming U.S. elections are expected to increase investor anxiety, with historical trends indicating poorer performance for the S&P 500 in election years [13]

Core Insights - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants have recently faced significant market challenges, with a collective market capitalization loss of US$950 billion, marking the largest weekly decline for this group [2][4] - These companies represent approximately 29% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, raising concerns about market concentration and potential bubble risks [2][4] - The report discusses whether the current market conditions signify an impending tech bubble or the onset of a new paradigm characterized by high market concentration [2][4] Market Concentration and Historical Context - Historical parallels are drawn between the current market concentration and past market bubbles, such as the Nifty Fifty and the dotcom bubble, highlighting the similarities in market dynamics [2][4][26] - The technology sector's market capitalization has been growing relative to other sectors, with the concentration in top companies being more pronounced than during the dotcom era [2][4][25] - The report suggests that the current market may be different due to established firms with solid financials and cash flow, contrasting with the startups that dominated previous bubbles [2][4][28] Future Scenarios - Three potential future scenarios are outlined: "Diverge and Shuffle," "Expand and Fade," and "Bubble Burst," with "Diverge and Shuffle" being deemed the most likely outcome [2][4][30] - The "Diverge and Shuffle" scenario anticipates continued concentration among a few large stocks, with potential shifts in the leading companies over time [2][4][30] - Factors supporting this scenario include historical market shifts, rising costs of innovation creating barriers for new entrants, and the current monetary policy environment [2][4][34] Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The end of the US tightening cycle and expectations for interest rate cuts are highlighted as contrasting factors compared to previous bubble bursts, which were influenced by rising interest rates [2][4][27] - The report emphasizes that the current tech giants are financially robust, with ample cash flow, unlike the companies during the dotcom bubble that were heavily reliant on venture capital [2][4][28] Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - The report suggests that the US equity market may experience a U-shaped recovery in 2024, with potential corrections expected in the near term due to various catalysts [2][4] - Investors are advised to take profits in US equities and consider buying on dips during the anticipated correction period [2][4]

CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH China Economics Update: 1Q GDP beat expectations, lifting annual growth forecasts 中国经济评论: 经济增长良好开局，上调 2024 年 GDP 增长预测 Kevin Xie (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com Huiting Yan (852) 3911 8012 yanhuiting@ccbintl.com 预计宏观政策支持持续。除了加大财政支持外，设备升级和消费品以旧换新计划等新的政策举措 有助增加投资和消费需求。我们仍预计存款准备金率将下调 25 个基点。不过，美元走强可能会 限制近期降息空间。 Economics | 16 April 2024 GDP growth came in stronger than our and the Bloomberg expectation (actual: 1.6% QoQ versus consensus: 1.5% QoQ and our forecast: 1.3% QoQ). Furt ...

Credit growth reflected divergent sectoral trends and a soft start of government bond issuance. Medium- to long-term (ML) corporate loans increased notably in Feb. We expect ML corporate lending to benefit from the capex wave from largescale equipment upgrades. On the other hand, ML lending to households is unlikely to turn around quickly, despite continued policy easing in the property sector. As policymakers balance supporting high-quality growth and curbing growing debt risk, we expect TSF growth to slow ...

Economics | 22 March 2024 Li Cui (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 预计日本央行继续谨慎走向货币政策正常化。日本央行于本月结束负利率政策并取消国债收益率曲线控 制（YCC），迈出货币政策正常化进程的关键一步。尽管日本中长期的经济增长仍面临挑战，但我们预 计国内需求端的提振以及全球的复苏预期将支撑周期增长。我们预计日本央行下半年将进一步小幅加息 0.2-0.3 个百分点。 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 1 On 19 March, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced steps to move further away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, including: Ending its negative interest rate ...