Ac更ces多sib资le v料ers加ion入 知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Basic Materials - China Cement/paper/glass price recovery; weak steel price amid weak consumption Industry Overview Coal: Price remained stable WoW 1 7 June 2024 The QHD 5,500kcal price was down 0.2% WoW to RMB871/t, almost flattish. NEWC Equity 6,000K price was up 0.3% WoW to US$135/t, at 22% of premium vs QHD price. The China Liulin No.4 HCC price was down 2.5% WoW to RMB1,930/t. As of Jun 10, the water Basic Materials i 1n 5f ,l 2o 8w 9 o cf m T /h sr ,e we ...

中国央行暗示货币政策将有重大改革 A speech by China's central bank chief signals that it is looking to update its monetary tool kit with potential changes that economists say herald a major policy revamp, bringing it closer to practices adopted by its western peers. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said Wednesday that the monetary authority might restart trading Treasury bonds in secondary markets, a policy shift that could rewrite the way Beijing manages liquidity. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Over the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, Fen Wine, Gujing, and ZJLD due to their potential for market share gains and solid brand positioning [2]. Core Insights - The spirits sector in China has seen a decline of over 6% in stock prices on average, attributed to media reports regarding potential consumption tax reforms [1]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the impact of consumption tax reform on the spirits industry, indicating that high-end spirits will be more affected than mass-market players [1][2]. - Moutai is expected to be more resilient in passing on tax burdens due to its strong pricing power, despite recent share price volatility [2]. Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Transfer of Tax Collection to Wholesale/Retail - Effective tax rates would vary by retail pricing tier, with rates of 20% for products priced over Rmb1,000, 15% for Rmb600-Rmb1,000, and 12% for products under Rmb600 [5]. - Companies most impacted include Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Gujing due to their higher exposure to high-end spirits [10][20]. Scenario 2: Increased Tax Rates for Manufacturers - Different effective tax rates would apply based on retail pricing tiers, with a 25% rate for products priced over Rmb1,000 [5]. - Similar to Scenario 1, Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Gujing would face significant impacts due to their high-end product exposure [22]. Scenario 3: Unified Effective Tax Rate - A unified effective tax rate of 25% on ex-factory prices would be applied, translating to approximately a 15% effective tax rate on wholesale prices [5]. - Companies like Gujing, Swellfun, and Jiugui would be most affected due to their lower net profit margins [24]. Financial Metrics - The spirits sector is currently trading at an average of 18X/15X P/E for 2024/2025 estimates, with an expected net profit CAGR of 18% from 2024E to 2026E [1]. - Moutai is trading at 21X/19X P/E for 2024E, indicating its premium valuation compared to the sector [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's distributors currently enjoy a gross profit margin of over 50%, allowing Moutai to potentially absorb more of the tax burden compared to its competitors [13][14]. - A price hike of approximately 6% may be necessary for Moutai to offset the additional tax burden under the proposed scenarios [15].

高盛：央行行长重申支持性货币政策立场, 并呼吁完善货币政策框架 ...

高盛：消费税改革长期利好, 但实施可能逐步推进 ...

高盛：宏观到微观房地产融资支持政策的影响 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights Super Hi's steady overseas expansion and enhanced local customer penetration as key growth drivers [2] - Management expects mid-single-digit to high-single-digit operating profit margin (OPM) in 2024, supported by higher table turns and enhanced management, despite higher wage costs [1][5] - Outbound tourism from China during holidays is identified as a tailwind for the company's performance [1][5] Store Expansion - As of May 2024, Super Hi has 121 stores, with 6 new store openings in the first five months of 2024 [1][5] - Management targets over 10 store openings in 2024, with a goal of 30% new stores under plan annually compared to the previous year's total store count [3][5] - In the mid-to-long term, customer base expansion and operational capability are seen as critical factors for store growth [5] Store Economics - Management views a 10%-15% restaurant margin as reasonable for overseas markets, with the gap compared to China stores attributed to higher rental costs and table turn ceilings [4][5] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is 66%, with labor costs at around 30% in 2023, and rental expenses (including ROU depreciation) at 7%-8% overseas, compared to 3%-4% in China [7][8] - Average capital expenditure (capex) for overseas stores is $3 million, with payback periods of 2-3 years in Asia and 4-5 years in Europe/North America [8] Customer Profile - Local customers (non-Chinese) account for approximately 50% of Super Hi's total customer base, with regional variations: 60%-70% in Asian markets and up to 80%-90% in countries like Vietnam, while Chinese customers dominate in Europe/North America at around 70% [5] - The primary customer demographic is adults below 45 years old, with university students also being a significant cohort [5] Table Turn and Repeat Purchase Rate - Table turn improved to 3.9x in 1Q24, up from 3.3x in 1Q23, with further growth expected in 2Q24 [1][5] - Management sets different table turn targets by store type: 4-4.5x for high-performing stores, with lower targets for less favorable locations [5] - The repeat purchase rate for members is 3-4 times per year, supported by a membership program similar to Haidilao's model in China [5] New Brand Incubation - Super Hi is committed to new brand incubation, testing noodle shops and rice bowl shops in various markets, including the US and Singapore [4][9] - The company offers regional managers a budget to launch new brands and provides incentives if the first store is successful [9] Average Selling Price (ASP) - The average ASP for Super Hi is $25 overseas, compared to approximately RMB 100 in China, with higher ASPs in the US ($50-$60) and Southeast Asia similar to tier-2 cities in China [5][7]

我们本次也是非常有幸的邀请到了我们中国联通的IR林总来为我们更新一下现在联通的一个经营情况首先让我们邀请林总跟我们交流一下现在联通的一个经营情况然后我们会开放投资者的一个提供环节 哎呀感谢您声音通气然后也感谢各位投资人的时间然后我简要的介绍一下联通近期一个经营的情况相信大家都比较了解其实 现在来看啊前两个季度其实公司还是在一个比较严峻的市场环境之下还是实现了一个相对比较稳健的增长啊那从一季度业绩来看的话我们一季度主营是3.4%的增长然后定位总额呢也是达到了10%啊这个其实也是达到了我们初步达到了我们和市场啊 2024年的业绩承诺就是我们的业绩是要经营的收入是要稳健增长然后我们的利润是要实现双位数的增长但从全年来看我们觉得2024年仍然是一个非常有挑战有压力的一年这宏观的环境宏观的经济上还是实在压力那么对于联通来讲我们看到的是 主营收入的增速有一个显著的下降那么这个下降主要的原因就是我们算网数字或者说我们2B的创新业务的这个收入的增长有一个明显的下降那么为什么会有这样的一个趋势那么特别是说在算网数字业务已经占到我们主营业务收入 达到1%那么贡献了我们新增收入超过50%这样的一个情况之下那么在这样的阶段我们追求的 ...

现在开始了没时间唱歌今天很高兴邀请到了中国河边的网民来跟我们做分享 我们最近每次出来开会报名的人都超多我还是来讲一下我们那个有的PPT吧我这个PPT我们现在就是前两天我们的那个商交所网站上我们领导就是公开也讲了那个PPT其实你要看商交所的回放其实也是有的然后我们这个PPT我们觉得还是很多投资者关心的问题我们在PPT都有回答所以我还是在还是大概讲一下讲的过程中如果大家有问题可以随时打电话我问 那我就先介绍一下我们公司的情况首先我们公司现在的三大核心产业还是核能、非核停电能源以及战略吸金产业 核能就是通常大家所知的能够发电以外现在还能够供暖 供气 海水淡化 制氢以及模组的提取这块我们统称叫核能多用途利用今天上午我们那个中国集团包括我们中国核电子公众号已经发了我们的核气一号今天已经正式已经完成了就是进入运行状态这个什么叫核气一号呢就是我们田湾三四号机组经过改造可以给周边的石化源去供应工业蒸汽 建成之后每年可以供应480万吨工业蒸汽然后今天是已经正式建成了我们的今天新闻也有讲然后核能供气里面除了刚才我说的填湾压水堆改造之后供应的高温蒸汽大概在260度左右另外大家现在通常所知的四大堆里面有一个高温气冷堆 因为高温气冷堆 ...

刚才更新一下您的一个概念说这个公司投2300亿的资金是什么概念就是刚才我们讲的这个2300亿是我的一个供货的货值它的这个投入它不会是在某一年集中投入因为刚才我们也讲了它分为新盘老盘 然后这里面我们讲的是货值的概念其实倒挂跟成本它可能就没有这么多而且新盘呢一般来说投入可能会相对集中一些它的投入但是老盘以前的就是相当于历史的一些投入了所以从投资的角度来看它倒不是说不是说意味着就是2300亿要投进去就是可能是两个概念了解那平年计划投入多少资金呢 我不知道您这个投入资金指的是投资拿地还是什么投资拿地的话我们就提款基本上这几年每年是希望投个两百亿当然每年情况不太一样可能会稍微有一些节奏上的调整比如说今年到现在我们可能投资因为整体考虑到今年一到五月整个的行业的这个交售数据还是有一些下滑的就在投资上我们也是 以回定投嘛所以在整体投资上我们也会控制一下节奏所以现在一到五月份我记得全预投资也就三十亿吧对就相对来说会少一些但基本上这几年每年我们大概会维持一个两百亿的一个买地的这样的一个投资力度吧好的好的了解了我还有最后一个问题就是请问一下公司对新增拿利的利润率要求是多少 这我刚才说了 我们定位率是要求10%以上好的 我的问题问完 ...