| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 9 月 11 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书：S1100524060001 | 联系方式：xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼，100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 | 每日热点 国家发展改革委办公厅等部门：发布关于推动车网互动规模化应用试点工作的通知。 海关总署：今年前 8 个月我国货物贸易出口 16.45 万亿元 同比增长 6.9 ...

CPI Analysis - In August 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-on-year, an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Food prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year, shifting from flat to growth, significantly influenced by the increase in fresh vegetable prices[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in non-food prices[2] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, PPI fell by 0.7%, with a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, largely due to price drops in high-energy-consuming industries[2] - Specific declines in high-energy industries included black metal smelting down by 4.4% and non-metallic mineral products down by 0.7%[2] Market Outlook - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices are expected to decline as temperatures cool, with CPI recovery dependent on domestic demand recovery[3] - The easing of last year's base effect may pressure PPI in the short term, but a narrowing of the year-on-year decline is anticipated in the medium to long term[3] - New productive forces and large-scale equipment updates are expected to support PPI stabilization[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in international oil prices and extreme weather events[4]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 9 月 10 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | | 执业证书：S1100524060001 | 联系方式：xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 | 楼，100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 | 每日热点 国务院总理李强：将赴沙特主持召开中国—沙特高级别联合委员会第四次会议并访问 沙特、阿联酋。 国家统计局：8 月 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 9 月 9 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | | 执业证书：S1100524060001 | 联系方式：xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 | 楼，100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 | 每日热点 国家发改委：发布《外商投资准入特别管理措施（负面清单）（2024 年版）》。 国家互联网信息办公室：编制发布《国家 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 川财证券研究所晨报 | | | | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 9 月 6 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书： | S1100524060001 | 联系方式： xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号， 200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 国家主席习近平：决定给予包括 33 个非洲国家在 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the alternative investment funds have shown outstanding performance with a cumulative return of 12.86% in Q2 2024, while the median return stands at 2.48% [4][7] - QDII funds and bond funds follow with cumulative returns of 7.07% and 2.31% respectively, with median returns of 3.11% and 1.07% [4][7] - The report notes that the gold-themed funds within alternative investment funds have been actively traded due to geopolitical conflicts driving gold prices up and expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [4][7] Group 2 - The report indicates that as of Q2 2024, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 31.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.47% [7] - The number of mixed funds remains the highest at 4,626, with an increase of 34 funds compared to the previous quarter [7] - The report mentions that the REITs funds are entering a normalization phase, with a total of 39 funds, an increase of 4 from the previous quarter, indicating a growing trend in this investment vehicle [7] Group 3 - The report discusses the adjustment in heavy holdings, noting that funds have reduced their stakes in liquor companies while increasing their investments in new energy-related listed companies [4][7] - Guizhou Moutai remains the highest valued stock held by funds at 118.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.66% from the previous quarter [4][7] - BYD is highlighted as the only new addition to the top twenty heavy holdings, with a market value increase of 1.32% from the previous quarter, reflecting market optimism towards the long-term potential of the new energy vehicle industry [4][7] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in maintaining market confidence, as their stable growth is crucial for the economy [7] - It notes that the inclusion of market capitalization assessments in SOE executives' evaluations encourages a focus on sustainable development and long-term planning [7] - The report suggests that this management strategy enhances investor confidence and ensures market stability [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increase in subsidies for scrapping and purchasing eligible new energy vehicles in Shanghai, with subsidies raised to 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles with engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less [2][5] - The report discusses the implementation of a comprehensive plan to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly focusing on the automotive sector, with an emphasis on utilizing long-term special bonds to support vehicle scrapping and replacement by the end of 2024 [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes the mixed performance of major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating while the ChiNext Index strengthened, indicating a divergence in market trends [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonably valued companies with stable earnings growth as a strategic direction for investment [3][8] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the central government's recent policy aimed at accelerating the green transition in the economy, outlining systematic deployment across five major areas including low-carbon industrial transformation and green urban development [4][9] - The report indicates that by 2030, the energy-saving and environmental protection industry is expected to reach a scale of approximately 15 trillion yuan, with non-fossil energy consumption accounting for about 25% [9][10] Group 4 - The report discusses the need for a broader green finance framework that supports not only "pure green" projects but also the low-carbon transition of high-carbon industries, addressing the funding challenges faced by these sectors [10][11] - The report highlights the extension of the implementation period for carbon reduction support tools until the end of 2027, encouraging the development of various green financial instruments [10][11]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[6] - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.1% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July increased by 3.6% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the first half of the year[8] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous value[8] - The CPI in July rose by 0.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous value, primarily driven by stable food prices[13] - The PPI in July decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous value[12] Policy and Market Outlook - The government aims for a 25% increase in investment in key energy sectors by 2027 compared to 2023 levels, focusing on energy efficiency upgrades and technology improvements[3] - The implementation of policies to support the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to boost consumer demand and retail sales[8] - Risks include potential changes in monetary policy and increased complexity in international relations[14]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 9 月 3 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书： | S1100524060001 | 联系方式： xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 | 深圳：福田区福华一路 | 6 号免税商务大厦 32 层， 518000 | | 上海：陆家嘴环路 1000 号恒生大厦 11 楼， | 200120 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 国务院办公厅：印发《关于以高水平开放推动服务贸易高质量发展的意见》。 工信部：拟实施大规模设备数字化 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that industrial enterprises' profits in China increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to July 2024, reflecting a stable recovery trend supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3][14][20] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a profit growth of 10.2% year-on-year during the same period, benefiting from rapid industrial product export growth and a mild recovery in domestic consumption [3][20][27] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors experienced profit growth rates of 12.8% and 6.1% respectively, indicating a shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in these industries [3][20][27] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports has been increasing monthly since the second quarter of this year, providing strong support for industrial production [3][20] - The implementation of policies such as large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods is expected to boost domestic demand [3][20][27] - The report suggests that the consumer goods manufacturing sector's profits are likely to continue improving with the deepening implementation of the replacement policy [3][20][27] Sector Performance - In the paper and chemical fiber industries, profits increased by 108% and 105% respectively, while profits in the agricultural and sideline food, textiles, printing, cultural and educational products, beverages, and furniture industries grew between 12.4% and 23.9% [3][20][27] - The high-tech manufacturing sector contributed nearly 60% to the overall industrial profit growth, indicating its leading role in the industrial economy [3][20][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of new productive forces and new industrialization in promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial enterprises [3][20][27]