金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 银行指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 [Table_Summary] 融 工 程 点 评 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-7.72% 波动率（年化）：17.15% 夏普率：-0.45 最大回撤：28.99% 指数期间总回报率：26.24% [Table_Message]2025-05-16 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势具有很好的局部延续性，标的价格永远处 于某一趋势中，出现反转行情的持续时间明显小于趋势延续的时间，若出现 窄幅盘整的情况，亦假设其延续之前的趋势。当处于大级别的趋势之中时， 给定较短时间的观察窗口，走势将延续观察窗口内的局部趋势。而当趋势发 生反转时，在观察 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of photomasks, with significant growth potential due to the increasing demand in the flat panel display and semiconductor industries. The report highlights the company's plans to raise up to 1.2 billion yuan through a targeted stock issuance to fund the construction of high-precision photomask production bases [3][4]. - The domestic photomask market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected demand increase from 73.1 billion yen in 2022 to 82.2 billion yen by 2027. The company aims to fill the gap in the domestic supply of high-end semiconductor photomasks, which are currently heavily reliant on imports [4][6]. - The company has established deep partnerships with key domestic IC foundries and other semiconductor-related enterprises, enhancing its market position and technical capabilities [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.11 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.10 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 172 million yuan to 408 million yuan over the same period. The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.29% for revenue from 2025 to 2026 [8][11]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in gross margin from 27.62% in 2023 to 32.95% in 2027, indicating improved profitability as the company scales its operations [11].

◼ 子行业评级 国有银行 看好 股份制银行 看好 区域性银行 看好 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 中信银行 增持 招商银行 买入 重庆银行 增持 渝农商行 买入 2025 年 05 月 15 日 行业周报 看好/维持 银行 银行 银行周报（0505-0511）：增量政策稳定预期，板块配置价值凸显 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/5/15 24/7/26 24/10/6 24/12/17 25/2/27 25/5/10 相关研究报告 <<重庆银行 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报点评：息差拖累边际缓解，资产 质量整体改善>>--2025-04-27 <<青岛银行 2024 年年报点评：规模 效益双增，高成长性持续展现>>-- 2025-04-27 证券分析师：夏芈卬 电话：010-88695119 E-MAIL：xiama@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523030003 研究助理：王子钦 E-MAIL：wangziqin@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124010010 报告摘要 行情回顾：1）大盘方面，本周上证指数、沪深 300 指 ...

2025 年 05 月 14 日 行业日报 看好/维持 医药 医药 相关研究报告 <<太平洋医药日报（20250513）：诺和 诺德 Sogroya 三期临床成功>>-- 2025-05-14 <<生命科学上游系列研究（一）：供需 回暖，板块向上>>--2025-05-13 <<太平洋医药日报（20250509）：GSK 在研小分子linerixibat三期临床成 功>>--2025-05-13 证券分析师：周豫 电话： E-MAIL：zhouyua@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523060002 证券分析师：张崴 电话： 太平洋医药日报（20250514）：默克匹米替尼拟纳入优先审评 ◼ 走势比较 ◼ 子行业评级 | 化学制药 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 中药生产 | 无评级 | | 生物医药Ⅱ | 中性 | | 其 他 医 药 医 | 中性 | | 疗 | | E-MAIL：zhangwei@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524060001 报告摘要 市场表现： 2025 年 5 月 14 日，医药板块涨跌幅+0.10%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.1 ...

2025 年 05 月 14 日 行业日报 看好/维持 医药 医药 赛默飞 25Q1 利润稳健增长，经调整 EPS 指引略有下调 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/5/14 24/7/25 24/10/5 24/12/16 25/2/26 25/5/9 子行业评级 | 化学制药 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 中药生产 | 无评级 | | 生物医药Ⅱ | 中性 | | 其 他 医 药 医 | 中性 | | 疗 | | 相关研究报告 <<太平洋医药日报（20250513）：诺和 诺德 Sogroya 三期临床成功>>-- 2025-05-14 <<生命科学上游系列研究（一）：供需 回暖，板块向上>>--2025-05-13 <<太平洋医药日报（20250509）：GSK 在研小分子linerixibat三期临床成 证券分析师：周豫 电话： E-MAIL：zhouyua@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523060002 证券分析师：张崴 电话： E-MAIL：zhangwei@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524060001 ...

电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-05-14 金工 ETF 点评：宽基 ETF 单日净流出 92.20 亿元；食品饮料拥挤度持续下降 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 一、资金流向 二、行业拥挤度监测 ◼ 通过构建行业拥挤度监测模型，对申万一级行业指数的拥挤度进行每日监测， 前一交易日国防军工、纺织服饰、美容护理拥挤度靠前，相比较而言，房地 产、食品饮料的拥挤度水平较低，建议关注。此外，交通运输、非银金融、电 力设备单日拥挤度变动较大。从主力资金流动来看，前一交易日主力资金流 入美容护理、医药生物、基础化工，流出国防军工、计算机、电子。近三个交 易日主力资金增配非银金融、美容护理、家用电器，减配计算机、电子、国 防军工。 三、ETF 产品关注信号 ◼ 根据溢价率 Z-score 模型搭建相关 ET ...

[Table_Message]2025-05-13 金 金融工程点评 国防军工指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-0.37% 波动率（年化）：29.80% 夏普率：-0.01 最大回撤：29.79% 指数期间总回报率：-3.81% 融 工 程 点 评 太 平 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 2023-03-07 2023-04-12 2023-05-22 2023-06-28 2023-08-02 2023-09-06 2023-10-19 2023-11-23 2023-12-28 2024-02-02 2024-03-18 2024-04-24 2024-06-03 2024-07 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels to provide actionable insights[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates crowding levels for each industry index based on specific metrics (not detailed in the report) and ranks them daily. For example, on the previous trading day, the crowding levels of "National Defense and Military," "Textile and Apparel," and "Beauty and Personal Care" were among the highest, while "Social Services," "Coal," and "Non-Banking Financials" had the lowest levels[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a useful tool for identifying industry trends and potential investment opportunities by highlighting crowding dynamics[4] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[5] - **Model Construction Process**: The Z-score is calculated as follows: $ Z = \frac{(P - \mu)}{\sigma} $ Where: - $ P $ is the premium rate of the ETF - $ \mu $ is the mean premium rate over the rolling window - $ \sigma $ is the standard deviation of the premium rate over the rolling window The model flags ETFs with significant deviations from their historical premium rates, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[5] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying ETFs with significant pricing anomalies, providing actionable signals for arbitrage strategies[5] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Top Crowded Industries**: "National Defense and Military," "Textile and Apparel," and "Beauty and Personal Care" had the highest crowding levels on the previous trading day[4] - **Least Crowded Industries**: "Social Services," "Coal," and "Non-Banking Financials" had the lowest crowding levels on the previous trading day[4] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Signal Examples**: The model flagged ETFs such as "Bank ETF" (512800.SH) and "Carbon Neutral 50 ETF" (159861.SZ) as noteworthy based on their premium rate Z-scores, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities[12] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were explicitly mentioned in the report

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Western Mining (601168) [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.542 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.74% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 808 million yuan, up 9.61% year-on-year and 305.62% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The production of key mineral products has shown significant year-on-year growth, with copper, zinc, lead, and molybdenum production increasing by 14.35%, 18.17%, 38.38%, and 43.64% respectively [5]. - The company is actively advancing resource expansion and production capacity, with the Yulong Phase III project expected to enhance copper production [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.542 billion yuan, a 50.74% increase year-on-year and a 24.37% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 808 million yuan, reflecting a 9.61% year-on-year increase and a 305.62% quarter-on-quarter increase [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 17.40% and 9.38%, respectively, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year [7]. Production and Capacity - The company’s mineral production for Q1 2025 included copper at 44,100 tons, zinc at 30,000 tons, lead at 16,700 tons, and molybdenum at 1,200 tons, with respective year-on-year increases of 14.35%, 18.17%, 38.38%, and 43.64% [5]. - The smelting production for copper, zinc, and lead also saw significant increases, with copper smelting up 54.83% year-on-year [5]. Market Conditions - Prices for copper, zinc, and lead have increased year-on-year, with copper averaging 77,400 yuan/ton, a 12% increase [7]. - The company maintains a high self-sufficiency rate for raw materials, which mitigates the impact of declining processing fees in the smelting segment [7]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.558 billion yuan, 3.814 billion yuan, and 4.134 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 23.73% for 2025, followed by more modest growth in subsequent years [8].

2025 年 05 月 13 日 行业日报 看好/维持 医药 医药 太平洋医药日报（20250513）：诺和诺德 Sogroya 三期临床成功 ◼ 走势比较 ◼ 子行业评级 | 化学制药 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 中药生产 | 无评级 | | 生物医药Ⅱ | 中性 | | 其 他 医 药 医 | 中性 | | 疗 | | 相关研究报告 <<太平洋医药日报（20250509）：GSK 在研小分子linerixibat三期临床成 功>>--2025-05-13 <<迈瑞医疗点评报告：海外高速增 长，看好国内全年复苏>>--2025-05- 12 <<联影医疗点评报告：国内市占率持 续提升，海外高速增长>>--2025-05- 12 证券分析师：周豫 近日，诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）公布了篮式 3 期临床试验 REAL8 的 积极数据，数据显示，每周一次使用 Sogroya（somapacitan）在改善小于 胎龄儿（SGA）、努南综合征（NS）或特发性矮小（ISS）患儿的青春期前 年生长速率方面，与每日一次使用的生长激素 Norditropin（somatropin） 相比，达到非 ...