期货研究 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 日 | | 现实走向明朗，等待外力信号 —— 6 月 PMI 点评 | | 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0011222 maolei013138@gtjas.com | | 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0013736 Wangxiao019787@gtjas.com | | | | PMI 报 49.5 ，小幅低于万得预期的 49.55 ，连续第二个月低于荣枯线，是对年中经济 动能较一季度转弱的 ...

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 感谢大家参加本次会议 大家好欢迎参加中信箭头国台局安情况交流目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报免责声明声明播报完毕后主持人可直接发言谢谢风险提示及免责声明一本次会议为中信箭头研究发展部组织的闭门会议仅限向中信箭头完名单客户参加会议的投资者不得制作会议纪要包括但不限于文字纪要录音录像写评等形式 并对外转发给任何其他个人或机构擅自制作、编辑及转发会一定要引起不当传播的中信箭头有权追究其法律责任 本次会议内容在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议且中信线头不承诺不保障所含具有预测性质的内容必然得以实现敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险三本次会议包含信息均来源于中信线头认为可靠的公开资料 但中信箭头对这些信息的准确性、时效性以及完整性不做任何保证本次会议如涉及专家分享该专家分享仅代表专家个人观点不代表中信箭头立场 在法律法规及监管规定允许的范围内中信建投可能持有并交易本次会议所提及公司的股份或其他财产权益也可能在过去目前或者将来为所提及公司提供或者争取为其提供投资银行做市交易财务顾问或 ...

资料来源: Bloomberg, 国泰君安期货研究 表 9: 服务消费强于商品消费 表 10:科技板块上游盈利优于下游 资料来源: Bloomberg, 国泰君安期货研究 11 医疗保健作为防守板块受经济周期影响有限,但新药上市带来利润推动难以抵消公共卫生事件相关商 物与科研服务业务量的持续增水,板块盈利蒙上阴霾。24Q1 医疗保健板块营收增长 5.95%，盈利变缩 25.65%,成为该季度美股盈利最差的板块,同时由于其市值占比在出现盈利负增长板块中最高,对指数整 体盈利增速的拖累也最为严重。板块中,生物科技和制药行业(以下简称生物医药)仍然受到公共卫生事 件产品及相关服务需求回落影响,盈利负增长最为严重,季度同比-50.12%。当下生物医药行业盈利主要 靠龙头公司推出新产品支撑,其中礼来一季度表现宪眼,是唯二的正增长行业权重股,营收增长 25.98%,一方面得益于其减肥药 Mounjaro 与 Zepbound 的强劲销售,另一方面还得益于其产品组合中其 他药物的销售增长,包括 Verzenio 与 Jardiance,在销售增长的助推下,其李度利润从2301的 13.4 亿美元增至22.4亿美元。 能源板 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry as it only contains a greeting and does not provide any substantive content. Core Points and Arguments - No core points or arguments are presented in the document as it consists solely of introductory remarks. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The document includes a standard opening statement thanking participants for attending the meeting, indicating that the meeting is about to begin, but does not provide any further details or insights. Since the content is limited to introductory remarks, there are no additional key points or data to summarize.

声明 【本周热点前瞻】 6月24日 6月25日 6月26日 美国5月新屋销售 6月27日 中国5月工业企业利润 美国截至6月22日当周初请失业金人数 点评：6月27日20:30，美国商务部将公布2024年第一季度GDP终值。预期美国2024年第一季度实际GDP年化 季率终值为1.3%，修正值为1.3%，初值1.6%，2023年第四季度终值为3.4%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 本报告中所指的研究服务可能不适合个别客户，不构成客户私人咨询建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任 何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见均不构成对任何 人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司、本公司员工或者关联机构不承诺投资者一定获利，不与投资 者分享投资收益，也不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何直接或间接损失或与此有关 的其他损失负任何责任。投资者务必注意，其据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司、本公司员工或者关 联机构无关。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。投资者不应将本报告作为作出投资决策的唯一参考因素，亦 不应认为本报告可以取代自己的判断。在决定投资前，如有需要，投资者务必向专业人士咨询并谨慎 决 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国泰君安期货 · 海外研究 | | | | 孙嘉良 （联系人） 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 | | | | 国泰君安期货研究所 刘雨萱 Z0020476 | | | | 戴璐（联系人） F03107988 俞臻洋（联系人） F03131108 F03129093 日期： 2024 年 6 月 23 日 | | | 01 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及FICC观点 • 经济数据日历 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 • 实时经济动能 – 实时GDP模型、WEI和板块惊喜指数 • 金融条件 – 央行资产负债表及金融条件指数 • 财政支出 – 美国联邦政府支出明细及债务占GDP比重 • 就业市场 – 美国就业市场周频、月频追踪 • 通胀 – 通胀拆分、核心驱动及通胀预期 • 消费需求 – 美国消费数据周频、 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2024 年 06 月 22 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 —— 关注风险冲击后的回归 报告导读： 美债收益率：调整式降息美债计价较为均衡，三季度超短久期占优，四季度长端下行有机会。美元指数：三季度地 缘政治支撑美元，四季度回归利差收敛，美元指数或先上后下整体震荡。 1.1 *关国例外 -- 美国经济增速仍具韧性,增速硕先发达国家主要经济结。 202.jav 1.2 再议"关国例外"的原因 2. 2024年下半年海外宏观经济展望 3.2024 下半美食收益率和美元指数观点。 - ...... 3 从长期经济趋势上看,主要发达国家市场中仅仅只有美国经济总量回到长期趋势线水平,欧元区、日本和 英国等非美经济体至今尚未回到 2020年之前的长期增长趋势线上。可以看出，经过全球公共卫生事件后，美 国经济在修复能力和内生增长动能上仍旧具有相对优势。 二 〇 二 三 年 度 经济动能平稳，地缘风险难测 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 wangxiao019787@gtjas.com 戴璐（联系人） 从业资格号：F03107988 dailu026543@gtjas. ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The conference call discusses various quantitative investment products and strategies, particularly focusing on index-enhanced products across different indices such as zz500, hs300, and zz1000. Core Points and Arguments - **Performance Metrics**: The performance of various quantitative stock selection products is highlighted, with specific attention to their weekly returns and monthly excess returns. For instance, the "Cloud Quantitative Index Enhancement No. 1" reported a weekly return of 2.95% and a monthly excess return of -1.84% [1][2]. - **Product Launch Dates**: Several products have specific launch dates, such as "Mingda Stock Selection" launched on December 30, 2016, and "Juchuang All-Market Enhancement No. 11" launched on October 22, 2021 [1][2]. - **Return Comparisons**: The document provides comparative performance data, indicating that some products have experienced significant drawdowns, such as "Jiu Zhang Fantasy" with a maximum drawdown of -1179% [1][2]. - **Investment Strategies**: The strategies employed include quantitative stock selection and index enhancement, with a focus on balancing risk and return across different market conditions [1][2]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Risk Metrics**: The document includes various risk metrics such as maximum drawdown and volatility, which are crucial for assessing the risk profile of the investment products. For example, "Mingda Stock Selection" has a maximum drawdown of -10.08% [1][2]. - **Market Conditions**: The performance of these products is contextualized within broader market conditions, suggesting that external factors may influence returns and risk [1][2]. - **Disclaimer**: A disclaimer is included, emphasizing that the content is intended for professional and qualified investors only, and does not constitute investment advice [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the performance, strategies, and risk metrics of the discussed investment products.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The notes pertain to various investment products and strategies within the futures market, specifically focusing on CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies. Core Points and Arguments - **Performance Metrics**: Various products reported performance metrics including weekly, monthly, and annual returns. For instance, the "奕睿CTA" product reported a weekly return of 2.40% and a year-to-date return of -18.02% [35][36]. - **Investment Strategies**: The products are categorized into low-frequency, medium-frequency, and high-frequency CTAs, indicating a diverse range of investment strategies employed by the firms [35][36]. - **Risk Metrics**: The notes include risk metrics such as maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratios, which are critical for assessing the risk-adjusted performance of the investment products. For example, "众壹进取套利1号" had a maximum drawdown of -32.59% [35][36]. - **Market Conditions**: The performance of these products is influenced by market conditions, with some products showing negative returns due to adverse market movements. For instance, "量道CTA精选1号" reported a return of -1.19% [35][36]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Diverse Product Offerings**: The notes highlight a wide array of products with varying investment horizons and risk profiles, catering to different investor needs. This includes products with investment scales ranging from 0-5 billion to over 100 billion [35][36]. - **Regulatory Disclaimer**: There is a disclaimer indicating that the content is intended for professional and qualified investors only, emphasizing the importance of regulatory compliance in the investment advisory space [35][36]. - **Performance Variability**: The performance of the products varies significantly, with some showing strong returns while others are in negative territory, indicating the inherent volatility and risk in the futures market [35][36]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call notes, focusing on the performance, strategies, and market conditions affecting the investment products discussed.

国泰君安期货私募净值跟踪（2024年06月14日） ...