国泰君安期货私募净值跟踪（2024年06月14日） ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 （正文） 6 月 17 日，国家统计局公布了中国 5 月生产、投资与消费数据。整体来看，数据平稳，但均低于万 得一致预期，与近期宏观预期退潮拖累下，部分工业品、股指走势偏弱相印证。二季度经济表现或弱于一 季度。结合已发布的 PMI、物价及金融数据综合分析，结构来看，当前国内宏观经济延续供给指标(如 5 月当月工业增加值+5.6%、制造业投资+9.4%)好于需求型指标（如社会消费品零售总额+3.7%、房地产投 资-11%）；外需(出口+7.6%)好于内需(3.7%)。需求偏弱对于价格的压制，信贷的拖累依旧明显。边际变 化上，①偏弱的需求已开始影响到生产端，如 PMI 生产、工业增加值、汽车制造等数据均出现读数微幅回 落态势，后期继续关注假日错位影响消退之下生产的变化。②从广义基建单月增速创 2021 年 12 月以来低 点可以看出，今年地方债发行进度偏慢，财政等政策力度事实上低于预期等因素是宏观略有回落的因素之 一。③此次数据部分的亮点来自于政策大力推动的设备更新改造、消费品以旧换新涉及的相关领域，如设 备工器具购置投资增长明显(累计同比 17.5%)；同时诸如家 ...

此次电话会议仅服务于国泰捐赠券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰捐赠券客户内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰捐赠券研究所审核后方可留存国泰捐赠券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权 转载转发均属侵权国泰均安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰均安证券不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提请广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策大家好欢迎参加消费的魅力美国消费百年历史复盘 目前所有的参会者均处于静音状态现在有请主持人发言 谢谢好的 谢谢惠英秘书各位投资者大家下午好我是国泰基金研究所之猛今天邀请我们消费大局几位首席一起跟大家分享一下美国百年消费的一个变迁和发展的一个历史其实我们在写美国之前之前我们也写过这个日本的从这些国家的这个互盘来看的话其实一个国家的 消费的这种发展深受经济的发展以及人口结构的这种影响相对来说还是比较大的尤其我们看到美国和日本其实差异非常大主要体现在经济的发展和人口结构这种变化方面这一块差异比较大整体来讲美国经济发展基本上是全球的典范尤其是一些发展中国家的一些典范 那經濟可以保持持續的這種長期的這種增長相對來說還是比較難的在二戰以後的話一直到1973年第一次危機 ...

Summary of Guotai Junan Conference Call Company Overview - Guotai Junan is a leading comprehensive financial service provider in the Chinese securities industry, established in 1999, with a 25-year history and consistently ranked among the top ten in the industry [2] Industry Context - The current market environment is challenging, with regulatory pressures leading to a decline in overall industry revenue and net profit. Despite this, Guotai Junan has outperformed the average, ranking second in the industry due to its robust operational model and balanced business layout [3] Key Business Segments - Guotai Junan operates five main business segments: financial management, investment banking, institutional trading, investment management, and international business, all of which are industry leaders [3] Risk Management and Compliance - The company has exceptional risk management capabilities, having received a commercial regulatory rating from the CSRC for 16 consecutive years, which is unique in the industry. This strong compliance framework has facilitated steady growth and provided opportunities during regulatory cycles [4] Strategic Direction - The strategic path remains unchanged despite policy adjustments, focusing on a "three-phase" strategy. The first phase, "addressing major demand gaps," has been successfully implemented, optimizing customer service systems and enhancing competitiveness in key sectors like high-end manufacturing and TMT [5] Investment Management Progress - Guotai Junan has leveraged new regulations to reform its public asset management business, currently managing approximately 55 billion RMB in public funds and around 660 billion RMB in debt plans, both showing strong growth [6] Fund Management Actions - The company acquired 51% of a fund management firm in the previous strategic cycle, increasing its public fund scale to approximately 700 billion RMB, contributing to a diversified business portfolio exceeding 1.3 trillion RMB [7] Future Development Goals - Over the next three years, the focus will be on enhancing capabilities in financial management, increasing competitiveness in investment banking, and transitioning institutional trading towards specialized services [8] Technology and Financial Services - Guotai Junan emphasizes serving technology enterprises, providing comprehensive financing services across the entire industry chain, particularly in sectors like TMT and healthcare, while exploring investment opportunities in high-tech fields [9] Investment Banking Outlook - The investment banking sector has significant growth potential, especially in mergers and acquisitions, with a strong demand from numerous domestic companies. Bond financing has shown robust growth, helping to mitigate declines in investment banking revenue [10] Venture Capital Performance - The venture capital arm manages approximately 50 to 100 billion RMB, ranking fourth in the industry, focusing on sectors like fintech and urban renewal, with expectations for future revenue growth as investment scales increase [11] International Expansion - Guotai Junan has made strides in internationalization, establishing a presence in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, including significant investments in Vietnam and plans for further expansion in the region [11][13] Cross-Border Business Challenges - The company faces challenges in cross-border operations due to stringent regulations from the Hong Kong SFC, but has maintained a leading position in the industry through enhanced service quality [12] Financial Management Developments - The company is optimizing financial management strategies, achieving a product sales scale of nearly 200 billion RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of approximately 4% [14] Sales Model Transition - Guotai Junan plans to shift towards fund advisory services to provide personalized solutions, which is expected to support the growth of its asset management capabilities [14] Investment Performance Insights - The company’s equity investment scale is approximately 66.6 billion RMB, with 90% being non-directional. The focus is on reducing equity risk exposure while maintaining a stable performance in bond investments [15] Derivative Trading Dynamics - The trading volume of equity derivatives is around 100 billion RMB, with a stable performance in cross-border business, although some segments like OTC options have faced challenges [15] Conclusion - Guotai Junan is positioned to navigate the current market challenges through its diversified business model, strong risk management, and strategic focus on technology and international expansion, while adapting to regulatory changes and evolving market demands.

图 6：对发达经济体出口当月同比增速 图 7：对新兴经济体出口当月同比增速 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 2019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-05 主要贸易伙伴出口累计同比(美元计,21年为两年平均) 出口总额 对东盟 对美国 对欧盟 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2024-04 2024-05 % 中国出口额(美元计)分地区同比 地区后数字代表占中国出口份额最新比重 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 4 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 • Weekly Data Ahead 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | CONTENTS • Thoughts of the Week 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及FICC观点 周期定位 - 美国零售商分品种库存跟踪 美国制造业和零售业库销比 海服长 美国通胀同比数据拆分 ■CPI 同比 于 4/30/243.4 ដ​ខ្លួន ■食品 ■能源 8.0- "核心商品 ■梭心服务 6.04 123 -2.0- 6.1 2019 3月 9月 12月 3月 9月 22月 oH ISH 3H 2022 2024 2020 Headline通胀同比趋势与能源、核心商品 核心通胀同比趋势与房价、房租 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 34 消费需求 – 美国消费数据周频、月频追踪 零售 ...

期货研究 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 价格方面，大宗涨价环境下明显改善，主要原材料购进价格为 56.9，近七年中位数为 51.8；环比 2.9pct，近七年中位数-1.2pct。出厂价格为 50.4，近七年中位数为 49；环比 1.3pct，近七年中位数- 1.2pct。从 PMI 价格指标对 PPI 的领先性来看，后期 PPI 环比有望回升，带动 PPI 同比改善，后期 PPI 跌幅有望缩窄至-2%以内。但另一方面，原材料购进价格改善程度好于出厂价格，显示企业成本上升较 快，向下游传导仍受限。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 图 1：5 月 PMI 回落至荣枯线下方 图 2：供需双双回落拖累 PMI 走低 49.50 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 % 中国:PMI -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 百分点 PMI分项环比变动贡献 生产 新订单 从业人员 供货商配送时间 原材料库存 PMI环比变动 生产方面，报 50.8 环比-2.1，近七年中位数 0.5，回落幅度远大于季节性，但仍在荣枯线上方 ...

大家好欢迎参加六月投资展望从春到夏的消费电话目前所有的参会者均处于拼音状态现在开始播报声明声明播报完毕后请主持人举行发言谢谢本次电话会议仅服务于国泰捐赠券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰捐赠券客户内部学习使用 不得外发并且必须经国泰居安证券研究所审核后方可留存国泰居安证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发均属侵权国泰居安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰居安证券 不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提请广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策各位投资者大家下午好今天邀请我们国泰金融消费组跟大家一起分享一下 6月投資的一個展望以及從春到夏的整個消費行業的一些變化我是國泰軍研究所之猛從目前來看經歷了這個四、五月份就是二季度大家也看到了整個二季度消費的一個情況從我們瞭解來看的話其實各個消費者行業也都發生了一些變化這些變化跟整個經濟、政策以及天氣還是息息相關的目前看的話四、五月份 整个消费这一块稳中略微有些放缓整个增速这一块略微有些放缓鸡堂很多纸行业都出现了类似的这种特征所以其实这个特征目前来看的话现在还在延续这个我们刚刚讲了跟整个经济、天气、政策都有一定的这种关系所以也发 ...

25 资金流量 - 主要大类资产ETF资金流量追踪 美元-日元 Carry 回报指数、日元和权益市场指数 美国经济各板块经济惊喜指数 1200- 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 ■PoP Rate(Year on Year,1) (RSRSMOTV) 22.05 卡车和航运 1M1 ■ 明库存（LVE+Comex+上明丙） (L1) ■原油库存（D0E除战略储备） 于 5/17/24 (R1) 0.459M + 0.501 ■ 原油体存 (DOE除战略体备) ■上期所钢可家副库存 (L1) 0.301M 0.8H -0.5294 -0.5M 0.6M - 0. 6604 M 0 423M r 0.4599 0 302M 0.429 0.254- -0.4294 0.4M 2016 2019 2021 , 2022 2024 2024 2015 2017 2019 2020 2022 欧元区边缘国家赤字率和主权债务风险追踪 5.50 260- > 130 ■ 在伦特报道 (R2) ■全美平均示台 于 5/25/24 0.1) 3分 #Hooflie OPIFI比 于 4/30/24 (R1) 0 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | 期货研究 | | | 2024 年 5 月 27 日 | | | 本周热点前瞻 2024-05-27 | | | 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号： | Z0000372 Taojinfeng013026@gtjas.com | 中国4月规模以上工业企业利润 点评：5月27日09:30，中国国家统计局将公布4月及1-4月规模以上工业企业利润。1-3月规模以上工业企业 利润同比增长4.3%，3月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降3.5%。 声明 点评：5月29日20:00，德国联邦统计局将公布德国5月CPI初值，预期德国5月CPI年率初值为2.4%，前值为 2.2%。 点评：5月30日17:00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区5月经济景气指数和5月工业景气指数，预期欧元区5月经济 景气指数为96，前值为95.6；预期欧元区5月工业景气指数为-8，前值为-10.5。如果欧元区5月经济景气指数和 5月工业景气指数均高于前值，则将有助于相关工业品期货价格上涨。 点 ...