Core Insights - The engineering machinery industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, driven by domestic infrastructure investment and overseas market expansion, achieving a high-quality development pattern of "stable growth, structural optimization, and improved efficiency" [10] - The report maintains a "leading the market" rating for the engineering machinery sector, highlighting the potential of intelligent logistics and mining machinery as key investment areas [10] Industry Performance Overview - The engineering machinery industry index has outperformed major market indices, with a year-to-date increase of 33.14% as of December 21, 2025, significantly surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [9][14] - The revenue and net profit of the engineering machinery industry grew by 10.84% and 19.72% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a recovery in operational performance [21][23] Intelligent Logistics Equipment - The demand from e-commerce has driven rapid transformation in the logistics market, with the logistics total amount reaching 263.2 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [38][49] - Policies at both national and local levels are establishing a supportive framework for the development of intelligent logistics, focusing on technology empowerment, equipment upgrades, and scenario innovation [10][55] Mining Machinery and Tunnel Engineering Equipment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of deep-earth economy, with mining machinery showing significant work hour differentiation, particularly for non-road dump trucks [10][19] - The demand for intelligent mining equipment is accelerating due to stringent policies related to carbon neutrality and safety regulations, driving the production of advanced machinery [10][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in intelligent logistics equipment such as Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, as well as traditional earth-moving machinery like SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion [10][7] - The mining machinery sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in non-road dump trucks and tunnel boring machines, with companies like Tiedao Heavy Industry and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment recommended for investment [10][7]

Market Strategy - The report suggests positioning for the "spring rally" market by focusing on technology growth sectors [5][7] - The A-share market has shown a rebound after a period of consolidation, indicating a potential upward trend [9] Economic Insights - From January to November, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises in China increased by 16.9% year-on-year, with a total of 61,207 enterprises [15][16] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the highest level in 30 years [17][18] Industry Dynamics - Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen production has exceeded 10,000 tons, achieving a fourfold increase compared to the previous year [25][26] - The 2025 China Game Industry Report indicates that the domestic game market's actual sales revenue reached 350.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68% [27][28] - OpenAI is reportedly planning to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation of $830 billion to support its growth plans [29][30] - Human-shaped robots have been deployed in CATL's battery production line, increasing daily output by three times compared to manual labor [31][32] - Changying Precision has delivered over 80 million yuan worth of components for humanoid robots from January to August this year [33] Company Tracking - Lizhu Group's NS-041 tablet for treating depression has received approval for clinical trials [35][36] - Longping High-Tech plans to acquire a stake in Longping Oilseed and increase its capital, resulting in a 79.69% ownership [37][38] - Huakai Yibai has initiated its first share buyback, with a total investment of between 15 million and 30 million yuan [39][40]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "spring market rally" effect, indicating that from the Central Economic Work Conference to the National People's Congress, the A-share market typically experiences a rally, with an average increase of 18.30% over 57 days based on historical data from 2009 to 2025 [4][7] - The report suggests that the market is expected to gradually enter a "spring market rally" phase, driven by increased liquidity and risk appetite, alongside favorable domestic policy expectations [4][7] - Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, satellite industry, national defense, AI applications, and new consumption areas such as health, cultural tourism, and pet economy, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][14][16] Group 2 - The macroeconomic recovery foundation remains to be solidified, with fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a need for policy measures to boost domestic demand [8][11] - The report notes that public budget expenditure increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security, technology, and environmental protection spending, reflecting a focus on improving livelihoods and technological advancement [11] - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike is expected to have limited impact on global markets, as the market had already priced in this increase, suggesting a continued trend of easing liquidity globally [12] Group 3 - The report provides an overview of A-share market performance, noting a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.03% and a decrease in the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.89% during the specified week [17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was reported at 17,380.31 billion, reflecting a decrease of 10.12% compared to the previous week [17] - The report also highlights the performance of various sectors, with retail, non-bank financials, and beauty care showing the highest gains [17][20]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97. The ChiNext Index decreased by 2.17% to 3107.06, and the STAR Market 50 Index dropped by 1.46% to 1305.97 [1][7] - The overall market saw a decline in the majority of indices, with the exception of the blue-chip stocks represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [7][8] Industry Dynamics - The average operating rate and workload of the national engineering machinery sector increased month-on-month in November, with an average operating rate of 46.95%, up 1.39 percentage points, and workload increasing by 10.03% [25][26] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a 32.0% year-on-year increase in domestic production in January 2026, following a decline in retail sales in November [28][29] - The sulfuric acid industry is implementing measures to stabilize supply and prices to ensure agricultural input stability, particularly for fertilizer production [31][33] - The total grain production for 2025 is projected to be 14,297.5 billion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, with improvements in yield per mu for corn and rice [34][35] Company Updates - Yanjinpuzi (002847.SZ) announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant 3 million shares at a price of 35.18 yuan per share, with performance targets set for 2026-2028 [36][37] - Shuhua Sports (605299.SH) plans to invest up to 500 million yuan in a health industry park project to enhance its competitive edge in the smart fitness sector [39][40] - Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH) disclosed a special dividend plan for 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.754 billion yuan [41][42] - Qibin Group (601636.SH) is establishing a subsidiary in Shenzhen to enhance supply chain efficiency and management in the photovoltaic glass business [43]

Market Strategy - The market showed a rebound in the afternoon with significant volume, indicating stabilization at the index level [7] - The overall A-share market saw an increase of 1.54%, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.39% [7][8] - The technology sector, particularly the computing hardware and lithium battery supply chain, experienced notable rebounds, while small-cap stocks lagged behind [7][9] Industry Dynamics - From January to November 2025, China's railway passenger and freight volumes continued to grow, with passenger volume reaching 4.279 billion, a 6.6% increase year-on-year [27] - The total freight volume for the same period was 4.830 billion tons, up 2.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in container and grain transport [27] - Yushun Technology launched the world's first humanoid robot application store, which allows users to download action modules without programming knowledge, potentially creating a new industry trend [29] Company Tracking - Fuling Pickled Vegetable Company is advancing its "dual expansion" strategy, focusing on product diversification and channel optimization to seek new growth [31] - Huitian New Materials plans to invest approximately 97.68 million yuan to build a new production line for lithium battery negative electrode adhesives, aiming to increase its market share in this rapidly growing sector [33] - Yujing Co. announced a stock option incentive plan for 2025, targeting core employees with a total of 2.2 million stock options [35] Local Economic Dynamics - Hunan Province's new energy installed capacity surpassed 40 million kilowatts, accounting for 46.2% of the total installed capacity in the province, with significant growth in both wind and solar power [37]

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing continuous volume contraction, with the retail sector showing resilience [5][10] - The overall A-share market saw a decline of 1.45%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.11% and the ChiNext Index down 2.10% [9][10] - The retail sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, especially as the year-end shopping season approaches [10][11] Company Tracking - Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) is involved in a lawsuit and is planning to sign a mediation agreement, which may impact its financials positively [38][41] - Miao Ke Lan Duo (600882.SH) announced expected related party transactions for 2026, with a projected decrease in procurement amounts compared to 2025 [33][35] - YH Bio (688575.SH) received two medical device registration certificates, indicating potential growth in its product offerings [36] - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH) won a bid for a significant offshore wind power project valued at 1.834 billion yuan, enhancing its market position in renewable energy [42][44] Industry Dynamics - The Three Gorges Jiangsu Dafeng 800 MW offshore wind power project has achieved full capacity grid connection, marking a significant advancement in China's offshore wind energy capabilities [31][32] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to enhance domestic consumption and support various sectors, including e-commerce and health care, to stimulate economic growth [21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy maintained a stable state in November 2025, with obvious structural improvements, but the endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The report maintains the judgment that the economic growth rate in 2026 will still be positive, with a possible pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [4]. - In the equity market, market sentiment may continue to improve, and the market may show a volatile upward trend. In the bond market, volatility may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, and attention should be paid to gold, copper, and aluminum priced internationally [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the November 2025 Economy - The economy maintained a stable state with obvious structural improvements, including the continuous recovery of CPI, prominent economic kinetic energy switching, strengthened export competitiveness, high - level production, steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, and highlights in service consumption [5]. - The endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The "subsidy withdrawal" effect has a significant impact, economic data still needs trend improvement, the endogenous growth momentum needs to be strengthened, and real estate still has a certain drag on the economy [6]. 2. Interpretation of November 2025 Economic Sub - item Data - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and service PMI declined. The new order index was the main contributor to the increase in PMI. The PMI of high - tech manufacturing was above the boom - bust line. The service business activity index was below the boom - bust line for the first time since September 2024. The construction industry PMI improved [7][8]. - Fixed - asset investment continued to decline under the drag of real estate. Real estate development investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 3.4 percentage points. In the future, the drag of real estate on fixed - asset investment is expected to shrink, and infrastructure investment may stabilize, while manufacturing investment should focus on emerging directions [9]. - Service consumption had highlights, while commodity consumption was highly differentiated. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased slightly. Service consumption, such as catering, maintained growth, while commodity consumption, such as automobiles and home appliances, declined due to the "subsidy withdrawal" effect [10]. - Exports showed strong resilience, with prominent structural highlights and a steady expansion of the surplus. In November, the export growth rate rebounded. The exports to Africa performed outstandingly, and the product structure was optimized. Exports are expected to be a major bright spot in the economy in 2026 [11][12]. - Real estate sales continued to bottom out. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the market was still in the process of destocking. The prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [13]. - The production end remained stable. In November, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries grew faster than the overall level [14]. - At the price end, CPI continued to rise, and PPI was stable and waiting to rise. In November, CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI increased month - on - month. Consumption - end prices showed a recovery trend, and production - end prices were characterized by differentiation [14]. - In November, the overall social financing was stable, and credit increased less year - on - year. Government bond financing supported the growth of social financing, while the demand of the resident sector was weak, and the demand of the enterprise sector improved marginally [18]. - The profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily. From January to October 2025, the cumulative profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises increased for three consecutive months. In the future, policies are expected to promote the growth of industrial enterprise profits [19][20]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Overseas, the main narrative is the soft landing of the economy, but there are still uncertainties in the structure. The US economy is expected to maintain a positive trend, but there are risks such as the differentiation between the real and virtual economies, the widening wealth gap, and the differentiation between AI and non - AI investments [21]. - At the domestic policy level, in 2026, the macro - policy will be more proactive. Fiscal policy will be more positive and pay attention to robustness and sustainability, and monetary policy will be moderately loose, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [21]. - In terms of the economy, the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. The endogenous recovery momentum of domestic demand needs to be consolidated, and exports are expected to perform well [22]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: In the short term, the market may show a volatile upward trend. Investors should focus on sectors with positive event catalysts, sectors benefiting from the recovery of the equity market, sectors benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the supplementary rise of the large - consumption sector [24]. - Bond market: The volatility of ultra - long bonds may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the expected term of fiscal bond issuance and the adjustment of the risk assessment indicators of large banks [25]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies. For precious metals, the long - bull foundation of gold remains. For crude oil, the price trend may continue to be weak. For internationally priced non - ferrous metals, the price is in a medium - term upward channel. For commodities priced by the domestic fundamentals, the prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range volatile trend [26].

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing a contraction with major indices showing declines, including the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55% to 3867.92 points and the ChiNext Index down by 1.77% to 3137.80 points [4][6] - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 17,944.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,245.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating reduced market activity [7][9] - The insurance sector is leading gains due to favorable regulatory changes, while technology stocks are under pressure amid concerns over AI market bubbles [6][9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - From January to November 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 444,035 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [17][18] - In November, the retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, which is below the expected growth of 2.9% [20] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, slightly below the expected growth of 5% [21] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - In November, China's crude oil production accelerated with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while natural gas production grew by 5.7% [24][25] - The investment in urban rail transit construction is projected to reach 450 billion yuan in 2025, marking a continuous decline over five years [26][27] - The industrial power generation in November grew by 2.7% year-on-year, with significant increases in solar power generation, which rose by 23.4% [31][32] Group 4: Company Updates - Yipin Hong (300723.SZ) announced that its associated company, Arthrosi, is being acquired for a total of 9.5 billion USD upfront, with additional milestone payments potentially reaching 5.5 billion USD [33][34] - Jingjiawei (300474.SZ) reported progress in the development of its edge AI SoC chip, achieving key milestones in testing and performance metrics [35]

Market Structure - The A-share market has formed a dual-core industrial structure centered on technology growth and midstream manufacturing, driven by macroeconomic cycles, industrial policy guidance, and market funding preferences [6][9][12] - The technology sector has developed into a high-prosperity cluster with significant internal linkage, while the manufacturing sector serves as a market stabilizer, maintaining connections with various fields [10][12] - The TMT sector has shown a clear rotation characteristic with midstream manufacturing since 2021, constituting the core direction for market capital allocation [12][16] Market Sentiment - The three-dimensional sentiment model provides an objective and sensitive monitoring of market sentiment, which is crucial for observing phase changes in the market [23][51] - In 2025, the market sentiment exhibited a dual-cycle pattern, with a small cycle from January 6 to April 14 and a larger cycle from April 15 to October 29, reflecting the complex interplay of policy and external factors [51][52] - The sentiment phases are closely linked to industrial rotation, with TMT industries gaining prominence during positive sentiment periods, while upstream resource industries serve as defensive plays during cautious sentiment [52][53] Policy Frequency Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight a strategic emphasis on technological innovation and manufacturing, indicating a shift towards self-reliance and security in the industrial framework [56][57] - The frequency of terms related to safety, technology, and energy in the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a deepening focus on these areas, reflecting their importance in the context of modernizing China's economy [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" and the rating has been maintained [3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes balancing market stability, risk prevention, and transformation in the real estate sector. The focus has shifted from urgent measures to stabilize the market to a more balanced approach aimed at long-term risk resolution and high-quality development [6][7]. - The probability of large-scale, nationwide support policies for the real estate market is low, with "city-specific policies" becoming the main theme. The focus is on local governments as the main implementers of policies [6][7]. - The role of real estate has transitioned from driving economic growth to risk prevention and social welfare, highlighting the sector's importance in social security and housing attributes [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The investment suggestion indicates that the real estate policy environment in 2026 will seek a balance between market stability, risk prevention, and transformation, with a moderately positive but more rational and structured policy environment [6][7]. - Short-term focus should be on the implementation pace and scale of "stock housing acquisition policies," which will be crucial for market sentiment and improving liquidity for real estate companies [7]. Policy Directions - The core policy measures include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, with an emphasis on acquiring existing housing for social housing and promoting the construction of quality homes [6][7]. - The new development model aims to enhance the quality of housing rather than merely expanding scale, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in the industry [6][7].