邮箱：xingt@hlzq.com 《AI+再迎政策支持，11 月挖机销量超 预期—机械设备行业周报》2024.12.23 《风起科技潮，船行内需海，帆扬出海 天—机械设备行业 2025 年度投资策略 报告》2024.12.05 2024.12.02 证券研究报告 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 CES 即将开幕，关注机器人及消费电子设备投资机会 ——机械设备行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230521040001 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 3 日机械设备指数下跌 7.58%， 在一级行业分类中排名第 24 位。受市场整体回调影响，各子板块 均出现不同程度下跌，其中工程机械（-3.97%）及轨交设备 （-6.78%）下跌相对较少，科技属性较强的自动化设备（-9.43%） 下跌较多。我们认为，机械设备行业子行业众多，仍存在结构性 投资机会，维持行业"推荐"评级。可以关注:（一）科技强国战 略高地-人形机器人、半导体设备、消费电子设备等；（二）受益 于内需复苏的顺周期板块，如工程机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, highlighting the expected advancements in vehicle intelligence by 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing significant developments in smart technology, with companies like Li Auto launching AI models and traditional manufacturers like BYD enhancing their intelligent driving systems [8][52]. - The report anticipates that the penetration of intelligent driving systems will significantly influence consumer purchasing decisions, leading to increased market share for companies that excel in this area [27]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Li Auto is accelerating its AI initiatives, aiming for substantial progress in vehicle intelligence by 2025 [8]. - The report notes that the automotive market is benefiting from policies promoting vehicle scrappage and replacement, which are expected to stimulate sales [90]. Key Industry Dynamics - Xiaomi Auto has partnered with "Wei Xiaoli" to develop a charging network, while BYD has launched its high-level intelligent driving system nationwide [15][56]. - The report highlights the upcoming launch of several new models, including the CS75PLUS and the ET9, which are expected to enhance market competition [34]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown resilience, with the overall index underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.7 percentage points [36]. - As of December 27, 2024, the automotive sector's PE ratio stands at 26.0, reflecting a week-on-week increase [42]. Data Tracking - In November 2024, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.424 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [90]. - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales reached 52.3%, continuing a trend of over 50% for five consecutive months [89].

是新的一年退市新规即将实施，加之近期不少公司披露被立案调查，还有被强制退市的；二是 1 月份将正式进入年报 预告披露期，那些前期被炒高的题材股，没有业绩支撑的话，就容易跌跌不休。相反，那些有叙事、有业绩的大票自 观点基于均线理论，技术分析可能具有滞后性，过往业绩不代表其未来表现，仅供参考！ 〖资料来源：通达信、wind、财联社、同花顺 iFinD〗 事件：财联社 12 月 27 日讯，尽管在日本央行（Bank of Japan）上周的政策会议上，多数人持谨慎态度导致 利率维持不变，但明年 1 月仍是有可能加息的。 以上信息由华龙证券整理公布，报告版权属华龙证券股份有限公司所有。本内参所载相关数据和信息来源于万得、财联社、同花顺、 启明星终端和公开资料，不构成具体投资建议，仅供投资者参考。据此操作，风险自负。未经许可，严禁以任何方式将本刊物全部或 部分翻印和传播。本周报风险等级为中风险。 - 2 - 度不确定性"的影响，特别是即将上任的美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普政府的经济政策。此外，植田还指出，明年日 本企业和工会之间的薪资谈判前景也很关键。他强调，如果经济继续改善，日本央行将加息，因为维持过度货币支持 的时间 ...

Market Analysis - The market experienced a slight rebound with major indices showing small gains, while the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a potential acceleration in sector rotation [2][7]. - AI hardware stocks saw significant increases, with sectors such as copper cables, CPO, and AI glasses leading the gains, while retail and consumer stocks also rebounded [3][4]. Financing and Investment Trends - As of December 25, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 955.699 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.101 billion yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance increased by 0.101 billion yuan to 909.774 billion yuan, resulting in a total of 1.865473 trillion yuan across both markets, a decrease of 1 billion yuan [6]. - The humanoid robot company MagicLab recently completed a 150 million yuan angel round of financing, aiming to expand talent recruitment and accelerate the development and commercialization of humanoid robots [9]. Sector Insights - The global energy storage market is primarily dominated by China, the United States, and Europe, which accounted for over 80% of the new installed capacity in 2023. The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed 200 GWh in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 49% from 2021 to 2024 [25]. - The humanoid robot industry is projected to see a cumulative demand of about 2 million units by 2030, indicating a clear trend towards growth in this sector [9]. Upcoming Events - A closed-door seminar on preventing "involution" in the new energy storage industry will be held on December 26, focusing on self-regulation and high-quality development [19].

Market Analysis - The market experienced a slight increase in trading volume, with the three major indices showing mixed performance The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets recorded a total trading volume of 1 43 trillion yuan, an increase of 161 4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Agricultural stocks surged collectively, financial stocks showed intraday fluctuations, and military-industrial stocks strengthened Retail stocks remained active [3] - Leading sectors included agriculture, Hainan, military equipment, and power grid equipment, while e-commerce, semiconductors, copper cable high-speed connections, and CPO sectors declined [4] AI Server Market - The global AI server market revenue reached 45 422 billion USD in Q2 2024, a 35% increase year-over-year AI servers now account for nearly 30% of all server revenue in Q2 2024 [6] - The server market is expected to grow significantly, with capital expenditure projected to increase by 22% in 2025, reaching over 280 billion USD By 2028, the server market is expected to reach 380 billion USD, and by 2030, it is projected to approach 500 billion USD [20] - Global AI server shipments are expected to grow by 41 5% in 2024, reaching 1 67 million units AI server shipments will account for 12 2% of total server shipments, with revenue share reaching 65% due to higher value-added AI servers [21] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0 06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0 13%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0 22% [15] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market rose, indicating a broad recovery in individual stocks [13] - AI hardware stocks experienced adjustments, with several stocks falling by more than 5% [14] Humanoid Robotics - The domestic humanoid robot market is projected to reach 2 76 billion yuan in 2024, with the potential to grow into a 100 billion yuan market by 2030 Key investment opportunities lie in high-value components with technical barriers, such as actuators, dexterous hands, and sensors [31] PC Market - Global PC shipments increased by 3 1% year-over-year in Q2 2024, reaching 62 5 million units This marks the second consecutive quarter of growth, driven by a moderate replacement cycle and a low base period [31]

Market Analysis - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with slight increases in major indices, while the North Stock Exchange 50 index fell over 4%, reaching a new low for the period. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.28 trillion, a decrease of 157.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [2][6]. Industry Insights - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach 2.76 billion by 2024 and is expected to grow into a trillion-yuan market by 2030. This sector is gaining attention and investment due to its significant market potential. Analysts suggest focusing on key components with high investment value and technological barriers, such as actuators and sensors, as the industry enters mass production by 2025 [6][8]. - NVIDIA has developed the second generation of its general-purpose robot model, RVT-2, which boasts a training efficiency six times faster than its predecessor and a twofold increase in inference efficiency. This advancement is crucial for the commercial application of humanoid robots, as AI capabilities are currently a major technical bottleneck [8][25]. - The Shanghai municipal government has announced plans to build a large-scale autonomous computing cluster to support AI innovation applications. This includes developing autonomous computing chips and enhancing the city's computing resource management capabilities [9][26]. Concept Highlights - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing the emergence of new players, with the recent launch of the MATRIX-1 prototype by Shanghai Matrix Super Intelligence Systems, which is set for mass production next year. This indicates a growing competitive landscape in the humanoid robotics field [22]. Market Performance - Financial stocks showed strong performance, with notable gains in sectors such as insurance, banking, and computing power. Conversely, sectors like agriculture and tourism faced declines [4][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintained)" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the launch of the third-generation humanoid robot "GoMate" by GAC Group, showcasing its advanced capabilities in precise motion control, navigation, and autonomous decision-making [8] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted CAGR exceeding 56% from 2024 to 2030, reaching a market size of approximately $15 billion by 2030 [8] - The report emphasizes that 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for the mass production of humanoid robots, driving rapid growth in the supply chain companies [8] Summary by Sections Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report includes a table of key companies and their earnings forecasts, with specific focus on companies like Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Beite Technology, Best, Shuanglin Co., Shuanghuan Transmission, and Jinguan Technology [3][11] - Notable earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2024E include: - Top Group: 1.75 CNY - Sanhua Intelligent Control: 0.88 CNY - Beite Technology: 0.22 CNY - Best: 0.66 CNY - Shuanghuan Transmission: 1.20 CNY [11] Market Trends and Innovations - The report discusses the rapid iteration of core manufacturer solutions in the humanoid robot sector, with significant advancements in mobility structures and AI perception technologies [8] - The introduction of innovative features such as variable wheel-foot mobility structures and advanced visual autonomous driving algorithms is highlighted as a key differentiator in the market [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the supply chain that are poised for rapid growth due to the anticipated mass production of humanoid robots, maintaining an industry rating of "Recommended" [8] - Specific stock recommendations include Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Beite Technology, Best, Shuanglin Co., Shuanghuan Transmission, and Jinguan Technology [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential investment opportunities arising from the "export rush" logic due to the anticipated policies of Trump 2.0, particularly in sectors like electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals [5] - Industries with significant growth potential in overseas revenue are highlighted, such as electronics and automotive, with projections indicating that domestic automobile exports could reach 5.35 million units by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 20% [5] - The report suggests that the stability of Trump's cabinet in the 2.0 era may lead to more effective policy implementation compared to the previous term, which faced significant internal challenges [13][17] Group 1: Trump 2.0 Policy Impacts - The report outlines that Trump's 2.0 policies will likely maintain a focus on tax cuts, immigration control, and trade protectionism, while also potentially leading to inflationary pressures that could affect monetary policy [22][41] - The cabinet for Trump 2.0 is expected to be more stable, with a higher loyalty among members, which may facilitate smoother policy execution [25][44] - The trade policy under Trump 2.0 is anticipated to be aggressive, with proposals for tariffs on all imports ranging from 10% to 20%, and specific plans to impose tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods [50][67] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies sectors that may benefit from the "export rush" effect, particularly those that can quickly adapt to changing trade policies, such as precision instruments and machinery [18] - The potential for growth in overseas markets is emphasized, with companies likely to seek alternative export destinations to maintain performance amid rising tariffs [105] - The report notes that the manufacturing sector, particularly in electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals, is expected to see increased demand due to the anticipated policy changes [5][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The report forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, driven by consumer spending, despite the challenges posed by Trump's trade policies [37] - It highlights that the inflationary environment created by Trump's policies may lead to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments [41][63] - The report also mentions that the potential impact of tariffs on Chinese imports could lead to a decrease in China's GDP by 0.85% if tariffs of 60% are implemented [85]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 22.1X for 2024, 18.4X for 2025, and 15.3X for 2026 [110] Core Views - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, aiming for double-digit revenue growth and a doubling of net profit margin over the next five years [10][110] - The company's low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt products are its core competitive advantages, contributing over 50% to its main business revenue [106][151] - The company has a strong ability to innovate and launch new products, with new products accounting for double-digit percentages of revenue [25][106] - The company's DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel has shown significant growth, contributing to the rapid growth of its low-temperature product categories [26][106] Company Overview - The company is a regional dairy leader, focusing on low-temperature products and implementing the "Fresh Cube" strategy to enhance profitability [104][115] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with Liu Chang and Liu Yonghao as the actual controllers, holding 65.07% and 15.61% of the shares respectively [3] - The company has achieved steady growth in revenue and profitability, with a gross margin of 29.09% and a net margin of 5.97% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.67pct and 1.20pct year-on-year [8][104] - The company has a nationwide presence through three rounds of acquisitions, focusing on low-temperature milk markets [121][129] Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to recover in 2025, with supply and demand for raw milk improving [20][148] - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top two players, Yili and Mengniu, holding 24.2% and 21.3% of the market share respectively [143] - The industry is expected to grow steadily, driven by increasing health awareness and technological advancements in dairy products [16][143] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong competitive advantage in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, with key products like "24 Hours" and "Weipin" achieving double-digit growth [30][151] - The company has a robust supply chain and cold chain logistics capabilities, supported by its parent company, New Hope Group [106][165] - The company's DTC channel, including home delivery, self-subscription, image stores, and e-commerce, has shown strong growth, with overall revenue increasing by over 15% in 2023 [169][170] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2024 is expected to reach 11.203 billion yuan, with a net profit of 553 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.42% [110][184] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been steadily increasing, with a gross margin of 29.09% and a net margin of 5.97% in the first three quarters of 2024 [8][104] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 16.58% in 2023 to 18.49% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [50][196]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction decoration industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The "One Profit and Five Rates" system is continuously optimized, focusing on undervalued central enterprises [9]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has updated the performance evaluation system for central enterprises for 2025, emphasizing cash collection and risk control [9]. - The optimization of the evaluation system is expected to lead to a gradual revaluation of undervalued central enterprises, particularly in the construction sector [9]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights major companies in the construction sector, including China State Construction (601668.SH), China Railway (601390.SH), China Railway Construction (601186.SH), and China Communications Construction (601800.SH) [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are provided, with China Railway expected to have an EPS of 1.74 in 2024 and 1.78 in 2025, while China Communications Construction is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.6 in 2024 and 1.73 in 2025 [11]. - Investment ratings for these companies include "Hold" for China Railway and China Communications Construction, while China State Construction and China Railway Construction are currently not rated [11].