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Group 1 - The report indicates that the new "National Nine Articles" and the financial policies introduced on September 24 have established a market bottom, leading to a bullish market pattern and transitioning the market into a 4.0 era focused on high-quality development [6][25][28] - The report forecasts that the economic growth rate will remain around 5% in 2025, driven by investment and consumption, with a supportive global economic environment despite potential external disturbances [6][49][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that the microeconomic environment is being optimized, with market valuations still in the mid-low range, suggesting favorable conditions for equity markets in 2025 [7][62][63] - It emphasizes that the investment focus should be on sectors such as technology (TMT), advanced manufacturing, and cyclical industries, with specific attention to semiconductors, electric power equipment, and non-bank financials [8][95][100] Group 3 - The report outlines that the advanced manufacturing sector, particularly in electric power equipment, is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at high-quality development, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [105][106] - It also notes that the semiconductor industry is experiencing increased merger and acquisition activity, supported by government policies that encourage domestic innovation and self-sufficiency [100][101] Group 4 - The report discusses the potential for a slow bull market in the 4.0 era, contrasting with the volatility seen in previous market cycles, and suggests that liquidity measures will help stabilize the market [31][34] - It identifies that the real estate sector is expected to improve due to a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the market, which will also enhance consumer spending power [8][95][125]

1 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---金融行业2025年度投资策略报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 红利为锚，助力资本市场长期发展 华龙证券研究所 银行/非银金融行业 分析师：杨晓天 SAC执业证书编号：S0230521030002 邮箱：yangxt@hlzq.com 2024年12月04日 证券研究报告 市场表现（2024.11.29) （单位：%） 2024年市场走势 相关报告 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2024-1 2024-3 2024-5 2024-7 2024-9 2024-11 沪深300 非银金融(申万) 银行(申万) 证券Ⅱ(申万) 保险Ⅱ(申万) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 指数 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 沪深300 | -2.31 | 17.83 | 15.66 | | 非银金融(申万) | -0.01 | 43.14 | 36.34 | | 银行(申万) | -0.82 | 5.19 | ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, with varying performance across sub-sectors. The white liquor sector is under pressure, while snack and soft drink segments show promising growth potential [9][10][14][57]. Summary by Sections Market Review: Valuation Correction, Performance Slowdown - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline of 4.78% from January 1 to November 24, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.27 percentage points. Sub-sectors like soft drinks (+34.73%) and snacks (+13.94%) outperformed the index, while white liquor (-9.09%) and pre-packaged foods (-18.17%) lagged [21][24]. White Liquor: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations - The white liquor industry is in a deep adjustment phase, with a projected recovery in 2025 driven by macroeconomic improvements. The sector has faced declining demand due to external factors and a shift in consumer behavior. However, high-end and regional liquor brands are expected to stabilize and recover first [9][32][50]. Snacks: High Growth Potential - The snack sector is anticipated to maintain high growth, with a significant increase in revenue and profit in Q3 2024. Companies are focusing on product innovation and supply chain efficiency to meet consumer demand for healthier snacks. The integration of new sales channels is also expected to enhance growth [10][57][60]. Beverage Supply Chain: Recovery on the Horizon - The beer consumption is expected to improve with the recovery of the restaurant sector in 2025. The condiment industry is stabilizing, while pre-packaged food faces challenges but may see a turnaround as demand improves [14][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brands with strong market positions, such as high-end white liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as snack companies like Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Foods. The beverage supply chain should also be monitored for potential recovery [15][19].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a year of equalization in smart technology, with significant advancements in automation and globalization [1] - The overall automotive sector has shown substantial excess returns, particularly in the vehicle segment, driven by the rise of autonomous driving and the introduction of popular new models [6][18] - The report emphasizes two main themes: the dual focus on smart technology and globalization, with expectations for significant growth in both areas by 2025 [7][11] Summary by Sections 1. Excess Returns in Vehicle Sector - The automotive sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.9 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 17.93% as of December 2, 2024 [6][18] - The performance of sub-sectors includes passenger vehicles (+31.78%), commercial vehicles (+54.78%), auto parts (+6.72%), and auto services (-13.05%) [6][18] 2. Passenger Vehicles & Parts: Focus on Smart Technology & Globalization - The report predicts that 2025 will be a pivotal year for smart driving, with advancements in Robotaxi and humanoid robots [7][11] - The penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, with a projected retail sales volume of 13.2 million NEVs by 2025 [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of smart driving capabilities in consumer purchasing decisions, with several new models achieving significant pre-order success [34][37] 3. Commercial Vehicles: New Growth Cycle Supported by Demand - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand recovery, with government spending and export opportunities driving growth [8][11] - The report notes that the sales of new energy buses are likely to increase due to local government initiatives [8] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in smart driving technology, such as Seres, Li Auto, and Xpeng, as well as companies with strong overseas expansion capabilities like BYD and Great Wall Motors [11][13] - Key suppliers in the smart technology space, such as Desay SV, Kobot, and Huayang Group, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11][13]