策略研究报告 证券研究报告 策略报告 报告日期：2024 年 12 月 10 日 2025 年政策力度进一步提升 ——A 股投资策略点评报告 华龙证券研究所 A 股市场走势(2023/11/10-2024/12/10) 分析师 事件： 12 月 9 日政治局会议召开，事项包括分析研究 2025 年经济工作等。 观点： 一、2025 年工作定调与 2024 年相比新变化。①改革开放表述由"全 面深化改革开放"变化为"进一步全面深化改革，扩大高水平对外开 放"，②发展与安全方面表述由"统筹高质量发展和高水平安全"变 化为"更好统筹发展和安全"，③宏观政策方面表述由"加大宏观调 控力度"变化为"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，④市场供需方面 表述由"统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革"变化为"扩大国内 需求"，⑤科技创新方面表述由"推动高水平科技自立自强"变化为 "推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"，⑥社会经济方面表述由"切 实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回 升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"变化 为"稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，稳定预期、 激发活力， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is strengthening industry self-discipline, while the offshore wind project in Guangdong is progressing rapidly. The low-altitude policy is accelerating industrialization trends, and the power market is being planned in an orderly manner [3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the photovoltaic sector such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and Canadian Solar, as well as strong inverter companies like Sungrow Power, DeYe Shares, Jinlang Technology, and others [3]. - In the wind power sector, it recommends attention to companies like Daikin Heavy Industries, Taisheng Wind Power, and Dongfang Cable [3]. - For grid equipment, it highlights companies such as Guodian NARI Technology, XJ Electric, and Sifang Co. [3]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of new energy and public utility sectors, suggesting companies like Huaneng International, Huadian International, and others for investment [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 2 to December 6, 2024, the Shenwan Electric New Energy sector rose by 0.29%, ranking 30th among 31 industries, while the Public Utilities sector increased by 3.27%, ranking 11th [14][15]. Key Industry Dynamics - A symposium on promoting high-quality sustainable development in the photovoltaic industry was held, emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline to prevent unhealthy competition [28]. - The Guangdong 3000MW offshore wind project was signed, aiming to explore advanced technologies and applications in offshore wind energy [30]. - A joint action plan for the large-scale application of 5G technology was issued, aiming to enhance the integration of renewable energy and smart grid solutions [30]. - The State Council discussed the revision of the Civil Aviation Law, focusing on safety and quality improvements in civil aviation [30]. - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to support innovative development in the electricity sector, encouraging new business models and enhancing energy system capabilities [31]. Industry Tracking - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key components in the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating a downward trend in silicon material prices and a stable pricing environment for solar cells and modules [35][39][40].

| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 证券研究报告 | | 电新 & 公用 | | 报告日期： 2024 年 12 月 09 日 | | | 光伏行业强化自律，广东国管海风项目签约 | | | | | ——电新 & 公用行业周报 | | | | | | 华龙证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The production of humanoid robots is approaching, with significant actions from major manufacturers. 2025 is expected to be the year of mass production for humanoid robots, with a focus on suppliers in key areas such as actuators, reducers, screws, and sensors [1][18]. - Recent developments include partnerships between major companies like Huawei and various robotics firms to establish a world-class embodied intelligence innovation center [1][18]. - The electric vehicle sector is also active, with companies like BAIC New Energy and CATL signing agreements for chassis technology cooperation [20]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - Major manufacturers are intensifying their actions in humanoid robotics, with significant partnerships and product showcases indicating a maturation of technology [1]. - Tesla showcased its Optimus robot, which has increased dexterity, and other companies are ramping up production capabilities [1][18]. Key Industry Dynamics - **Electric Vehicles**: BAIC New Energy signed a chassis technology cooperation agreement with CATL. Shanghai's Pudong New Area has expanded its car purchase subsidy program to include vehicles registered from other provinces [20]. - **Intelligent Vehicles**: The Ministry of Transport is promoting the demonstration applications of unmanned vehicles and drones [25]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.1 percentage points, with the automotive sector index rising by 3.56% from December 2 to December 6, 2024 [35]. - The retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.261 million units in October 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core suppliers in the humanoid robot production chain and highlights specific companies for investment, including BYD, Great Wall Motors, and various technology firms involved in intelligent vehicle components [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a tightening of supply and demand during the off-season, leading to continued inventory reduction [1]. - The report highlights that the industry is expected to stabilize due to supportive factors from real estate and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing losses and the need for industry transformation [2][3]. Supply Summary - As of December 6, 2024, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.6124 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.18% [20]. - The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3261 million tons, down 0.54% week-on-week but up 1.44% year-on-year [20]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 87.33%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.58 percentage points year-on-year [20]. Demand Summary - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7461 million tons as of December 6, 2024, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.87% [25]. - The daily transaction volume of construction steel from mainstream traders was 104,300 tons, down 20.43% week-on-week and down 29.55% year-on-year [25]. - The total steel exports for October amounted to 1,118.16 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10.13% and a year-on-year increase of 41.06% [25]. Inventory Summary - As of December 6, 2024, the total social inventory of the five major steel products was 7.8309 million tons, down 0.64% week-on-week and down 10.51% year-on-year [38]. - The total factory inventory of the five major steel products was 3.7701 million tons, down 2.17% week-on-week and down 10.83% year-on-year [40]. Cost Summary - The price index for iron ore as of December 6, 2024, was 714.8 yuan per wet ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.01% [1]. - The comprehensive price index for scrap steel was 3,147.5 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.71% [1]. Price Summary - The Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 9,494.33 yuan per ton, remaining stable week-on-week but down 2.36% year-on-year [3]. - The global steel price index was 195.6 points, down 0.10% week-on-week and down 13.91% year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the first time in six months, with a total of 72.96 million ounces as of the end of November, supporting upward pressure on gold prices [1][25]. - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with a revised annualized GDP growth of 2.8% for Q3, and core PCE inflation rising by 2.1%, indicating potential for renewed inflation expectations [1][25]. - The manufacturing PMI in China remains stable at 50.8%, with industrial metal demand expected to recover as the economy stabilizes [1][45]. - The report suggests that industrial metals may benefit from increased investment in the real economy, particularly in companies like Zijin Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Western Mining [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - The Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index rose by 1.39% from December 2 to December 6, with industrial metals increasing by 2.1% [13]. - Key individual stock performances included significant gains for Liyuan Co. (33%) and Luoping Zinc & Electricity (20%) [15]. 2. Precious Metals - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 160,000 ounces in November, supporting gold prices [25]. - COMEX gold price was reported at $2,655 per ounce, with a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [20]. 3. Industrial Metals - China's comprehensive PMI recorded at 50.8%, with manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, indicating a gradual economic recovery [45]. - Industrial output increased by 5.3% year-on-year in October, while fixed asset investment grew by 3.4% [45]. - The report anticipates that the removal of export tax rebates on aluminum and copper will impact metal prices in the short term, but long-term price stability is expected [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing interest in AI application investment opportunities, particularly following OpenAI's launch of the ChatGPT Pro subscription plan at $200 per month, which includes access to advanced models and features [1][21][25]. - There is a positive outlook for the AI application sector, with expectations for significant growth in domestic AI applications, driven by a large potential user base [3][27]. - The report notes that overseas AI application companies have shown strong stock performance, with significant revenue growth and stock price increases for companies like AppLovin, Duolingo, and Shopify [26][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The computer index rose by 2.46% from December 2 to December 6, 2024, with notable gainers including Huihan Co. and Yanshan Technology [13]. 2. Industry News - Recent developments include a visit by Xi Jinping emphasizing the importance of modern information support in military strategy, highlighting the growing significance of network information systems [19]. 3. Key Company Announcements - Softcom Power announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging up to $660 million [19]. - Tianyima signed contracts worth approximately $3.31 billion for computing services [20]. 4. Weekly Insights - OpenAI's new subscription service is expected to enhance user experience and willingness to pay for AI applications, indicating a positive trend for the industry [21][25]. - The report emphasizes the rapid establishment of overseas AI application business models, which could signal a positive outlook for global AI industry profitability [26]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, and others, indicating their potential for growth in the AI application sector [3][27]. 6. Key Company and Earnings Forecasts - The report includes detailed earnings forecasts for key companies, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 and beyond [4][31].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the new "National Nine Articles" and the financial policies introduced on September 24 have established a market bottom, leading to a bullish market pattern and transitioning the market into a 4.0 era focused on high-quality development [6][25][28] - The report forecasts that the economic growth rate will remain around 5% in 2025, driven by investment and consumption, with a supportive global economic environment despite potential external disturbances [6][49][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that the microeconomic environment is being optimized, with market valuations still in the mid-low range, suggesting favorable conditions for equity markets in 2025 [7][62][63] - It emphasizes that the investment focus should be on sectors such as technology (TMT), advanced manufacturing, and cyclical industries, with specific attention to semiconductors, electric power equipment, and non-bank financials [8][95][100] Group 3 - The report outlines that the advanced manufacturing sector, particularly in electric power equipment, is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at high-quality development, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [105][106] - It also notes that the semiconductor industry is experiencing increased merger and acquisition activity, supported by government policies that encourage domestic innovation and self-sufficiency [100][101] Group 4 - The report discusses the potential for a slow bull market in the 4.0 era, contrasting with the volatility seen in previous market cycles, and suggests that liquidity measures will help stabilize the market [31][34] - It identifies that the real estate sector is expected to improve due to a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the market, which will also enhance consumer spending power [8][95][125]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the financial industry [2] Core Insights - The banking sector is characterized by stable stock prices and high dividend yields, making it a focal point for institutional investment in the coming years. The potential for balance sheet repair in the context of debt reduction is increasing [8] - Following a series of economic stimulus policies implemented after September 24, 2024, there is an optimistic outlook for the absolute return opportunities in the banking sector for 2025, supported by improved asset quality and stable credit growth [8] - The banking sector's high dividend yield and stability rank first among the Shenwan primary industries, indicating a favorable risk-return profile. The ongoing policies to encourage long-term capital inflow into the market further enhance the long-term investment value of listed banks [8] - The insurance sector is expected to see increased capital market participation, with listed insurance companies likely to benefit from improved fundamentals and investment opportunities in 2025 [11] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Industry Review for 2024 - The financial index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains across various sectors, including a 27.35% increase in the banking index and a 36.85% increase in the securities index as of November 29, 2024 [16] 2. Banking Sector High Dividend Investment Logic - The banking sector's high dividend yield is highlighted, with a current yield of 5.15%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 2.03%, indicating strong fixed-income asset characteristics [34] - Policies encouraging higher dividend payouts and long-term capital inflow are expected to benefit the banking sector, enhancing its attractiveness to long-term investors [32][34] 3. Securities Sector Performance - The securities sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with a notable increase in trading volumes and a favorable outlook for profit growth driven by policy support and market confidence [11][23] 4. Insurance Sector Outlook - The insurance sector is poised for growth as capital market reforms encourage long-term investments, with listed insurance companies expected to improve their fundamentals and investment strategies [11][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to support the innovative development of new types of operating entities in the electricity sector, which includes measures to improve scheduling management, encourage equal participation in the electricity market, optimize market registration, and enhance trading mechanisms [1]. - New types of operating entities are categorized into single-technology and resource aggregation types, which are characterized by their ability to adjust electricity and energy and feature new technologies and operational models [1]. - The importance of new operating entities is increasing, which will help enhance the power system's absorption capacity and flexibility [1]. - The report suggests that the participation of new operating entities in the electricity market will improve their profitability and enhance the overall flexibility of the power system [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the potential for new operating entities to participate in the electricity market through flexible methods such as volume-based bidding or non-bidding, which will provide more accurate price signals to meet market demand [1]. - The guidelines also propose exploring mechanisms to increase the supply of green electricity through direct connections with new energy sources, further enhancing local consumption of renewable energy [1]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including: - Guoneng Rixin (国能日新) with a projected EPS of 1.07 in 2024 and a current price of 44.53 CNY [4]. - Anke Rui (安科瑞) with a projected EPS of 1.06 in 2024 and a current price of 20.08 CNY [4]. - Langxin Group (朗新集团) with a projected EPS of 0.53 in 2024 and a current price of 13.66 CNY [4]. - Dongfang Electronics (东方电子) rated as "Buy" with a projected EPS of 0.52 in 2024 and a current price of 10.90 CNY [4]. - Guodian Nanrui (国电南瑞) with a projected EPS of 1.00 in 2024 and a current price of 24.86 CNY [4]. - Nanfang Technology (南网科技) with a projected EPS of 0.77 in 2024 and a current price of 33.31 CNY [4]. - JinkoSolar (晶科科技) with a projected EPS of 0.16 in 2024 and a current price of 3.15 CNY [4]. - Linyang Energy (林洋能源) with a projected EPS of 0.57 in 2024 and a current price of 7.35 CNY [4]. - Xinneng Technology (芯能科技) with a projected EPS of 0.47 in 2024 and a current price of 9.20 CNY [4].