策略研究报告 证券研究报告 策略报告 报告日期：2024 年 9 月 9 日 降准仍具备空间 ——A 股投资策略周报告 摘要（核心观点）： 降准仍具备空间，央行维持支持性货币政策。2024 年 9 月 5 日，央行表示 降准仍具备一定空间。强调货币政策在总量上，综合运用多种货币政策工 具，保持流动性合理充裕，引导银行增强贷款增长的稳定性和可持续性； 在利率上，发挥好近期政策利率和贷款市场报价利率下行的带动作用，推 动企业融资和居民信贷稳中有降；在结构上，仍强调提高资金使用效率， A 股市场走势(2023/08/11-2024/09/09) 加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融服务。 8月地方政府债发行提速，有望支撑基建投资增长。1-8月全国地方债总的 发行量为 54032.54 亿元，同比下降 14.18%。8 月地方政府债发行提速。8 月地方债发行293只，发行总额为11996.23亿元，发行数量和总额为年内 亿元，其中净融资规模环比 7 月增加近 6300 年上半年地方债总体发行速度偏慢，6 月以来发行明显提速， 月总发行量快速上升，有望支撑基建投资增长，稳定经济增速预 分析师 | --- | --- ...

证券研究报告 电新&公用 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 10 日 硅片电池博弈涨价，能源局印发绿证交易规则 ——电新&公用行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 行业方面，2024.9.2-9.8（后文均简称本周）申万电新板块涨跌幅 -0.92%，涨跌幅在 31 个行业中排名第 4；申万公用板块涨跌幅 -2.73%，涨跌幅在 31 个行业中排名第 20。同期沪深 300 涨跌幅 -2.71%，万得全 A 涨跌幅-2.50%。 光储行业：硅片电池博弈涨价，组件订单能见度暂不明朗。本周 硅片主流成交价格水位依然平稳，部分硅片厂家坚持调整后的报 价，买卖双方仍在博弈阶段。短期之内，由于上游涨价的需求不 断向下传递，电池环节也正酝酿在下周调涨电池片价格。个股方 面，建议关注光伏龙头通威股份、隆基绿能、天合光能、晶科能 源、阿特斯、TCL 中环，建议关注盈利能力较强的逆变器环节， 阳光电源、德业股份、锦浪科技、上能电气、禾迈股份等。 风电行业：中国电建新能源公司琼海市 200 万千瓦海上风电项目 前期工作招标公告，国内外海风建设 Q3 有望提速，进而带动产 业链出货，海外订单外溢有望打开我国海风出口空间。个股方面 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 09 日 8 月挖机销量超预期，工程机械市场逐步回暖 ——机械设备行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 上周机械设备指数下跌 2.81%，在一级行业分类中排名第 21，受 大盘拖累机械各子行业均出现下跌。展望后市，新质生产力和大 规模设备更新有望成为机械设备行业全年投资主线，建议关注： 数控机床、半导体设备、轨交设备、电梯、农机等方向。机械设 备行业指数处于低位，行业内部仍存在结构性投资机会，维持行 业"推荐"评级。 投资评级：推荐（维持） 分析师：景丹阳 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzqgs.com 8 月挖掘机内销+18.1%，好于 CME 预期。2024 年 8 月销售各类 挖掘机 14647 台，同比增长 11.8%，其中国内 6694 台，同比增长 18.1%；出口 7953 台，同比增长 6.95%。2024 年 1—8 月，共销 售挖掘机 131550 台，同比下降 2.21%；其中国内 66335 台，同比 增长 7.32%；出口 65215 台，同比下降 10.3%。此前，CME 预估 国内市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The merger between Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities is expected to accelerate industry valuation enhancement, creating a leading investment bank and promoting high-quality industry development [1] - Post-merger, the combined total assets and net assets of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities will reach 1.62 trillion yuan and 346 billion yuan respectively, positioning them at the forefront of the industry [1][3] - The merger is anticipated to increase the revenue share of investment banking and interest-related businesses, making it the highest in the industry [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Developments - On September 5, 2024, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities announced a major asset restructuring plan, leading to a temporary suspension of their stocks [1] - The restructuring involves complex processes and is expected to take no more than 25 trading days for completion [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the combined revenue of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is projected to account for 11% of the total revenue of listed securities firms, with significant increases in the shares of brokerage, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading, and interest income [1][4] - The breakdown of revenue by business for the combined entity shows brokerage at 10.4%, investment banking at 14.4%, asset management at 12.2%, proprietary trading at 8.8%, and interest income at 16.7% [4] Industry Context - The report highlights the ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions within the securities industry, with a focus on creating a few internationally competitive investment banks [1][5] - Regulatory support from the government encourages top institutions to enhance their core competitiveness through mergers and reorganizations [5][6]

证券研究报告 煤炭 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 09 日 传统需求淡季，煤价震荡运行 ——煤炭行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 投资评级：推荐（维持） 供给端：动力煤方面，陕西：区域内大部分煤矿正常生产销售， 市场煤供应基本稳定。内蒙：区域内多数煤矿保持正常生产，以 落实长协发运为主。炼焦煤方面，煤矿正常生产下，供应相对稳 定，进口蒙煤市场持续冷清，贸易商心态谨慎，甘其毛都口岸监 管区去库乏力，通关车数维持低位。 需求端：动力煤方面，随着天气温度逐步下降，民用电需求回落， 煤价上涨持续性不足。预计短期内煤价或将继续僵持运行，9 月 市场虽进入"金九银十"非电需求旺季，但由于水泥、化工成品 销售不畅，较难释放规模性补库，预计短期煤价反弹可能性较小。 炼焦煤方面，在旺季需求初步恢复阶段，钢材需求有季节性回升 但仍缺乏高度，目前供需错配问题还未有效缓解，钢价或再次承 压。焦企亏损加重，多进一步限产保价，焦钢企业对原料端采购 仍刚需为主，焦煤市场情绪再次转弱。 分析师：景丹阳 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzqgs.com 库存端：动力煤方面，台风将给华南沿海带来强风 ...

证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 09 日 旺季即将来临，关注白酒量价表现 ——食品饮料行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 食品饮料板块跑输上证指数。上周（09 月 02 日-09 月 06 日）食 品饮料板块涨跌幅为-3.53%，在申万 31 个行业中排名第 24，上 证指数涨跌幅为-2.69%，食品饮料跑输上证指数-0.84pcts。子板 块来看，零食（+1.16%），肉制品（+1.09%），软饮料（+1.08%） 涨幅居前，白酒（-2.98%）、调味品（-2.95%）跌幅居前。当前 市场需求波动，行业内公司业绩分化，龙头表现更加稳健，估值 回调后中长期配置性价比凸显，我们维持行业"推荐"评级。 投资评级：推荐（维持） 分析师：王芳 白酒：关注中秋国庆传统动销旺季量价表现。2024 年以来，白酒 市场表现前高后低，春节旺季动销较好，二季度进入淡季，动销 较弱，商务场景复苏较弱以及宴席场景高基数背景下出现回落， 行业步入调整期。批价来看，飞天茅台（散装）维持 2365 元/瓶， 飞天茅台（原装）从 2660 元/瓶下降 65 元/瓶至 2595 元/瓶。普五 （八代）批价维持 9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady development in its main business, with a focus on building an "AI + Education" ecosystem [1] - The company reported a revenue of 4.025 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 299 million yuan, down 27.22% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively promoting specialized and branded reforms in public publishing, with notable sales success in its general book business, particularly with the book "My Alashan" by Li Juan, which has sold over one million copies [1] - The company is expanding its new business lines, with the "Le Fu Culture" publishing new titles and ensuring the supply of textbooks for the spring semester [1] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 9.665 billion yuan, 10.013 billion yuan, and 10.363 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Expected costs for the same period are 6.843 billion yuan, 7.039 billion yuan, and 7.151 billion yuan [3] - The projected gross margins for 2024-2026 are 29.2%, 29.7%, and 31% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 949 million yuan, 1.022 billion yuan, and 1.204 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3] - The company maintains a stable profitability with a gross margin of 34.21% in the first half of 2024, an increase of 2.74 percentage points year-on-year [1] Comparable Company Analysis - The company is compared with similar businesses such as Phoenix Media, Zhongnan Media, Shandong Publishing, and CITIC Publishing, showing a favorable outlook for steady growth and new business expansion [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12, 11.1, and 9 times for 2024-2026 [3]

偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 166 期，总第 1725 期（电子版） 2024 年 9 月 9 日 星期一 一、市场分析 大金融独木难支 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------|-----------| | | | | | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 2765.81 | -0.81 | | 深证成指 | 8130.77 | -1.44 | | 中小 100 | 5244.97 | -1.62 | | 创业板指 | 1538.07 | -1.7 | | 沪深 300 | 3231.35 | -0.81 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 40345.41 | -1.01 | | 纳斯达克 | 16690.83 | -2.55 | | 标普 500 | 5408.42 | -1.73 | | 英国富时 100 | 8181.47 | -0.73 | | 日经 225 | 353 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 09 日 行业需求下滑业绩承压，估值底部静待政策起效 ——建材行业 2024 年半年报报综述 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 投资评级：推荐（维持） 建材行业：2024 年上半年，主要建材产品需求下滑，行业整体业 绩承压。下半年建材行业业绩有望改善，目前建材板块估值处于 历史底部，随着地产政策利好影响释放底部回升，维持建材行业 分析师：彭棋 "推荐"评级。 水泥行业：2024 年上半年，受房地产市场整体延续调整态势、基 建项目开工不足以及大范围连续性降雨天气影响，2024 年上半年 水泥需求持续弱势，水泥行业业绩整体承压。我们重点研究的 12 家水泥上市公司在 2024 年上半年实现营收 1822.07 亿元，同比下 滑 19.65%，实现归母净利润-4.03 亿元，同比转盈为亏。中长期 来看，水泥行业供给侧改革力度加大，行业供需格局有望改善； 短期来看，目前行业错峰生产力度加大，行业实际产能受限，水 泥库存下滑价格上涨，有望带动行业盈利能力提升。关注高盈利 能力的龙头企业，同时关注出海业务带来的业绩增长：华新水泥 （600801.SH） 、海螺水泥（6 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the media industry [1] Core Views - Tencent released its new-generation large model "Hunyuan Turbo," which improves inference efficiency by 100% and reduces costs by 50% [1] - The price of Hunyuan Turbo is 0.05 yuan per 1,000 tokens for output and 0.015 yuan per 1,000 tokens for input, making it more affordable for enterprises and developers [1] - Step-1X, an image generation model by Jieyue Xingchen, focuses on deep semantic alignment and detail generation, optimized for Chinese cultural elements [1] - Zhizhi Huazhang completed a financing round with a pre-investment valuation of 20 billion yuan, supported by state-owned capital [1] - The report suggests focusing on three major AI application scenarios in the media sector: gaming/film, AI education, and companies developing AI models or products [1] Market Performance - The Shenwan Media Index fell by 0.74% from September 2 to September 6, 2024 [7] - Top gainers in the media sector included Shengyibao (002095 SZ) and *ST Wentou (600715 SH), while top losers included Guangxi Broadcasting (600936 SH) and 365 Net (300295 SZ) [7] Key Industry News - Jieyue Xingchen launched Step-1X, an image generation model with deep semantic alignment and detail generation capabilities, optimized for Chinese cultural elements [11] - Zhizhi Huazhang secured financing with a pre-investment valuation of 20 billion yuan, led by Zhongguancun Science City Company [12] - Alipay introduced "Zhi Xiaobao," a service-oriented AI native application, marking the first of its kind in China [13] - Zhiyuan Research Institute launched FlagEval, the world's first model evaluation service including text-to-video capabilities [14] Company Announcements - Qitian Technology (300061 SZ) announced a change in control, with Shenzhen Qicaihong Haoyue Technology becoming the new controlling shareholder [15] - Gibbit (603444 SH) announced a semi-annual dividend of 4.50 yuan per share [16] - Huayang Lianzhong (603825 SH) returned 130 million yuan of temporarily used raised funds to the dedicated account [16] - Jishi Media (601929 SH) completed a share repurchase of 50.9135 million shares, accounting for 1.46% of the total shares [17] - Chinese Media (600373 SH) provided a guarantee of 450 million yuan for its subsidiary Jiangxi Xinhua Distribution Group [17] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI applications in gaming/film, AI education, and companies developing AI models or products [22] - Specific recommendations include companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555 SZ), Century Huatong (002602 SZ), Wanda Film (002739 SZ), and Giant Network (002558 SZ) [22]