偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 153 期，总第 1712 期（电子版） 2024 年 8 月 20 日 星期二 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------|-----------| | | | | | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 2893.67 | 0.49 | | 深证成指 | 8356.9 | 0.08 | | 中小 100 | 5338.48 | -0.26 | | 创业板指 | 1589.29 | -0.14 | | 沪深 300 | 3356.97 | 0.34 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 40896.53 | 0.58 | | 纳斯达克 | 17876.77 | 1.39 | | 标普 500 | 5608.25 | 0.97 | | 英国富时 100 | 8356.94 | 0.55 | | 日经 225 | 37839.85 | 1.21 | | 恒生指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to ZTE Corporation (000063 SZ) [3] Core Views - ZTE Corporation maintains steady performance in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 624 87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2 94% [2] - The company's government and enterprise business revenue grew significantly by 56 09% to RMB 91 2 billion, driven by server and storage revenue growth [2] - ZTE continues to focus on the "connectivity + computing power" strategy, with R&D expenses accounting for 20 4% of revenue in the first half of 2024, totaling RMB 127 3 billion [3] - The company holds over 90,000 global patent applications and 46,000 authorized patents, including approximately 5,000 AI-related patent applications and over 2,000 authorized patents [3] Business Performance Operator Network - Revenue decreased by 8 61% to RMB 372 96 billion, mainly due to domestic investment environment factors [2] - Gross margin increased slightly by 0 12 percentage points to 54 32% [2] Government and Enterprise Business - Revenue surged by 56 09% to RMB 91 2 billion [2] - Gross margin decreased by 5 74 percentage points to 21 77%, primarily due to changes in revenue structure [2] Consumer Business - Revenue grew by 14 28% to RMB 160 19 billion, driven by growth in home terminal and mobile phone products [2] - Gross margin increased by 1 11 percentage points to 18 93% [2] Market Position - ZTE maintains a leading position in wireless and wired core products [2] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in international markets, including Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Thailand, and Africa [2] - ZTE's fixed network products maintain a global leading position, with market share expansion in Italy, Indonesia, and Brazil [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow at 4 58%, 5 84%, and 5 83% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to parent company is projected to reach RMB 10 104 billion, RMB 11 309 billion, and RMB 12 689 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The current P/E ratio is 12 1x for 2024, 10 8x for 2025, and 9 7x for 2026 [4] Valuation - The report compares ZTE's valuation with peers, showing a 2024E P/E of 11 8x, lower than the industry average of 23 1x [6] - ZTE's market capitalization stands at RMB 1,225 5 billion as of August 20, 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance is driven by full order books, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth in H1 2024 [2] - The company is expanding into the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to open up new growth opportunities [2] - The EGR system and motor core businesses are the main drivers of revenue growth, with strong order growth from both existing and new customers [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 1,060 million yuan, up 44.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, up 43.6% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 495 million yuan, up 25.2% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 million yuan, up 60.8% YoY [2] - Gross margin in Q2 2024 increased by 2.14 pct YoY and 0.88 pct QoQ to 19.47%, driven by economies of scale [2] Business Segments - EGR system business achieved revenue of 354 million yuan in H1 2024, up 43.3% YoY, with strong order growth from BYD, Geely, and Chery [2] - Motor core business achieved revenue of 457 million yuan in H1 2024, up 76.8% YoY, with new customers including Tesla, BYD, and Hefei Junlian [2] Commercial Aerospace Expansion - The company's subsidiary, Weiyan Zhongjia, has extensive experience in national aerospace projects, including Shenzhou, Tianzhou, and Chang'e missions [2] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Galaxy Aerospace to supply precision components for energy modules [2] - The company is constructing a third-phase factory, expected to be operational by the end of 2024, to support its aerospace business [2] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 243 million yuan, 336 million yuan, and 410 million yuan, respectively [2] - The current PE ratio is 17.0x for 2024, 12.3x for 2025, and 10.1x for 2026, lower than the industry average [2] Valuation - The company's valuation is lower than comparable companies, with an average PE ratio of 30.8x for 2024, 19.7x for 2025, and 13.0x for 2026 [4]

证券研究报告 化工 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 19 日 旺季备货将至，行业有望触底回升 ——化工行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：孙伯文 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzqgs.com 联系人：彭越 执业证书编号：S0230124010004 邮箱：pengy@hlzqgs.com 《原油、维生素、TDI 价格向上，全面 绿色转型系统部署发布—化工行业周 报》2024.08.12 《原油价格持续波动，巴斯夫装置事故 引发维生素价格跳涨—化工行业周报》 2024.08.06 摘要： 投资评级：推荐（维持） 原油：截至 2024 年 8 月 16 日，WTI 原油期货价格为 76.65 美元/ 桶，周环比下降 0.25%；布伦特原油期货价格为 79.68 美元/桶， 周环比上升 0.03%。随着加沙停火谈判的进行，地缘政治方面也 有一些缓解，市场对需求前景的展望偏空，利空情绪仍在延续， 需求端压力和地缘不稳定性仍是市场主要关注点，预计国际油价 或趋高整理运行。 聚氨酯：截至 2024 年 8 月 16 日,聚合 MDI 价格为 1.73 万元/吨， 周环比 ...

策略研究报告 证券研究报告 策略报告 报告日期：2024 年 8 月 19 日 7 月经济数据分化，消费端有所改善 ——A 股投资策略周报告 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 计算机 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 19 日 谷歌推出 Gemini live，端侧 AI 再迎新进展 ——计算机行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：孙伯文 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzqgs.com 联系人：朱凌萱 执业证书编号：S0230124010005 邮箱：zhulx@hlzqgs.com 《政策催化+投资落地，低空经济有望加 速发展—计算机行业周报》2024.08.06 《DRG/DIP 2.0 版分组方案发布，关注 医疗 IT 投资机会—计算机行业周报》 2024.07.29 《从微软蓝屏事件看国产替代必要性— 计算机行业周报》2024.07.22 摘要： 投资建议：我们认为，在端侧 AI 技术突破的推动下，AI 终端产 品出货量提升具备较为确定性的趋势，也为端侧多模态相关的软 件厂商技术落地拓展了更多场景，维持行业"推荐"评级。建议 关注科大讯飞（002230.SZ）、中科创达（300496.SZ）、软通动 力（301236.SZ）、金山办公（688111.SH）等。 相关阅读 风险提示：多模态 AI 推进不及预期；所引用 ...

证券研究报告 银行/非银金融 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 19 日 银行板块高股息+稳定性投资价值提升 ——金融周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 市场数据 2024 年 8 月 16 日 行业,% 1M 3M YTD 沪深 300 -4.98 -9.04 -2.49 非银金融 0.58 -8.03 -6.73 银行 -1.37 -3.41 16.87 证券 2.29 -7.59 -10.66 保险 -2.69 -7.54 4.79 分析师：杨晓天 执业证书编号：S0230521030002 邮箱：yangxt@hlzqgs.com 《央行强化长期国债利率稳定性 助力 银行保险改善资产配置—金融周报》 2024.08.12 《预定利率下调等政策助力险企缓解负 债、长期投资稳定性增强—金融周报》 2024.08.06 《央行降息低利率环境下 银行高股息 价值进一步凸显—金融周报》2024.07.30 摘要： 上周（8 月 12 日至 8 月 16 日，下同）A 股市场整体上行，金融 各指数（申万）大幅上行，沪深 300 指数上周上涨 0.42%，全年 跌幅为 2.49%；银行指数上周上涨 2.66%，全年 ...

. 证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 19 日 第二轮以旧换新补贴细则发布，政策加码支撑销量向上 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzqgs.com 联系人：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230124020003 邮箱：lihy@hlzqgs.com 《新能源渗透率首超 50%，下半年上升 趋 势 有 望 持 续 — 汽 车 行 业 周 报 》 2024.08.12 《报废更新补贴细则发布，商用车销量 增长确定性提升—汽车行业周报》 2024.08.05 《以旧换新政策加码，有望提振汽车内 需—汽车行业周报》2024.07.29 摘要： 本周观点：第二轮以旧换新补贴细则发布，政策加码支撑销量向 上。商务部等 7 部门发布《关于进一步做好汽车以旧换新有关工 作的通知》，对于符合条件的报废后增购新能源车/燃油车的个人 消费者，补贴额度由 10000/7000 元提升至 20000/15000 元，有望 刺激更多符合报废条件的车主参与以旧换新，支撑下半年乘用车 销量提升。除补贴额度提升外，新能源车和燃油车补 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Buy" with a target price of 70.36 CNY [4][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that Wanhua Chemical is positioned well for long-term growth, with a focus on the integrated industrial chain and global competitive advantages. The company is expected to see steady profit growth in the coming years [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the polyurethane segment saw a year-on-year sales increase of 14.47% and revenue growth of 8.19%. The MDI prices showed an upward trend, while TDI and polyether markets faced a downturn [3]. - The petrochemical segment experienced a significant year-on-year sales decline of 59.8%, although revenue increased by 9.53% due to fluctuations in international oil prices and insufficient downstream demand [3]. - The fine chemicals and new materials segment reported a sales increase of 24.32% year-on-year, with revenue growth of 15.23% [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 17.91 billion CNY, 22.35 billion CNY, and 25.23 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 12.34, 9.88, and 8.76 [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of Wanhua Chemical's valuation metrics with peer companies, indicating a P/E ratio of 12.34 for 2024, which is competitive within the industry [6][5]. Market Data - As of August 15, 2024, Wanhua Chemical's market capitalization is approximately 220.91 billion CNY, with a trading range over the past 52 weeks between 66.78 CNY and 99.10 CNY [3].

证券研究报告 传媒 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 18 日 国内外大厂加速布局 AI 智能眼镜，端侧 AI 应用落地进行时 ——传媒行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：孙伯文 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzqgs.com 《持仓集中度提升，行业配置比例下降 —传媒行业 2024Q2 基金持仓分析》 2024.08.14 《政策端催化叠加基本面回暖，教育行 业向上空间可期 —传媒行业周报》 2024.08.12 《声智科技发布 AzeroGPT 算法升级成 果，开启 AI 硬件新体验—传媒行业周 报》2024.08.05 摘要： 国内外互联网大厂加速布局 AI 智能眼镜，端侧 AI 应用落地进行 时。微软、华为、苹果、字节跳动和 Meta 等大厂均在积极布局 AI 智能眼镜市场，AI 智能眼镜备受关注。AI 智能眼镜作为端侧 AI 落地重要的应用场景之一，机身轻薄化并有望深度融合 AI 算 法，实现更好的人机交互和情境感知，穿戴舒适度和日常便携性 提升。随着大模型、电子、计算机等底层技术的不断迭代，AI 的 应用形态也在不断创新，为传媒行业带来了新的发展增长 ...