更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley RESEARCH June 5, 2024 03:01 PM GMT US Economics & Global Macro Strategy I North America FOMC Preview: June Meeting Slow inflation progress this year keeps the Fed on hold for longer. Chair Powell should emphasize patience. We still see a first cut in September. Our strategists maintain long 3m1Oy receivers. Key expectations shuinu . The FOMC remains on hold at 5.375%. The FOMC statement describes progress on inflation as slowed rather than stalled. The Summary of E ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 印度大选、韩国展望、亚洲市场策略 摘要 •The recent Indian election results, with the BJP forming a government for the third term, suggest continued reform momentum and a focus on macroeconomic stability. The government is expected to avoid populist measures, despite challenging times, and maintain its commitment to fiscal consolidation. •The market's current focus on consumer staples stocks, anticipating populism, is likely to unwind as budget signals become clearer. Key alliance partners like TDP ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 M Asia Pacific Insight June 5, 2024 05:53 AM GMT India Equity Strategy and Economics Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ Ridham Desai Equity Strategist Modi 3.0: This Remains India's Ridham.Desai@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2222 Upasana Chachra Chief India Economist Decade Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2246 Sheela Rathi Equity Analyst Sheela.Rathi@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2224 We expect macro stability to continue to inform policy, and we Nayant ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley RESEARCH 2024年5月7日晚上9： 时间) 中国股票策略亚太地区 对近期反弹的思考 动性上升已有所缓解;近期超买技术信号已经出现。鉴于投资者情绪改善,我们推荐个股 和主题机会。 中国股市在单周和单月表现均为全球最佳;今年今其表现一直优于全球和新兴市场。 近期上涨的主要驱动因素包括国内和全球因素、仓位和资金流动,以及最新的价格技术面：1)在 国内,我们看到一些宏观稳定的早期迹象,尤其是在出口和制造业方面,同时政策制定者加大了稳定股市的 力度（重点是A股）。2)在全球范围内,此次上涨的背景包括远离地缘政治不确定性和美国 和日本市场波动性上升的多元化投资。在预计伊朗和以色列将发生军事冲突之前,VIX 指数在 4 月 19 日 (星期五)升,投资者对主要美国科技/半导体表现优异的股票和调整后的投资组合获利了结。对较长 最低水平。 中国大陆/香港的持续资金外流终于停止了。4)从技术角度来看,中国股市的实际波动率在1月下 旬达到顶峰,迫使基金经理通过减持和回补空头来降低主动风险。 我们预计当前的反弹势头将减弱;不要在指数层面进 ...

开报数据加\ 知识星 Global Markets Strategy 30 May 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Flows & Liguidity A structural break in oil positioning The mean of net long positions in Brent futures by the managed money category appears to have a experienced ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley RESEARCH June 2, 2024 07:00 AM GMT Powering Al I Asia Pacific More Gigawatts New data center announcements continue to accelerate in ASEAN, with another 1 GW in potential power demand being underwritten as these data centers ramp up. With US$5Obn in committed Al/DC investments, we see upside to power gencos and grid operators in the region. Tenaga, SCl and Keppel are OWs. ASEAN remains an outsized beneficiary of Asia's Powering Al theme ( Exhibit 1). Recent announc ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Recent pullback in Hong Kong and A-share markets reflects differing investor views on economic fundamentals and policy outlooks [1][2] - Despite the pullback, the forecast for annual real GDP growth remains at 4.8%, with Q2 expected to exceed 5% [1][2] - Economic recovery is uneven, with strong exports but weak consumption, increasing uncertainty [1][2] Real Estate Market - The response to the 517 policy relaxation in the real estate market has been positive, with increased transaction volumes in some cities and recovering buyer confidence [1][4] - The sustainability of policy effects is still under observation, and further policy support may be needed for market stability [1][4] - The shift in policy focus from ensuring project completion to supporting developers is significant, especially amid rising geopolitical risks [1][5] Internet Sector - The internet sector showed good performance in Q1, but regulatory changes introduce uncertainty [1][4][16] - Some platform companies have announced convertible bond issuances, which may impact future shareholder returns by diluting existing equity [1][4][16] Supply-Side Reform - Recent tightening of capacity control in the basic materials sector suggests the potential arrival of Supply-Side Reform 2.0, aimed at optimizing industrial structure and improving production efficiency [1][5] - This reform is expected to adjust supply-demand relationships and potentially drive price increases in related industries, enhancing corporate profitability [1][5] Policy Directions - Upcoming policy directions are particularly focused on the July Third Plenary Session and Politburo meeting, with expectations around urbanization, social security, healthcare, and affordable housing reforms [1][6] - The potential for fiscal stimulus is limited due to stable GDP growth above 5% in the first half of the year, but existing policies may be accelerated [1][6] Stock Market Trends - The recent stock market rally is deemed unsustainable, primarily driven by external factors rather than internal economic conditions [1][6][11] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a projected annual growth of 9% for the Minsheng China Index, reflecting signs of macroeconomic stabilization [1][11] Real Estate Policy Impact - The 517 policy is seen as a significant market intervention, with varying responses across different city tiers [1][12] - High-tier cities have seen increased sales and viewings, while lower-tier cities remain stagnant [1][12] Future Expectations - The one-handed housing market is currently weak, with declining prices and shrinking new supply, leading to decreased transaction volumes [1][13][14] - The second-hand housing market is expected to outperform the first-hand market in the coming months, although price declines may continue [1][14] Government Policies - The government's recent announcement of a 300 billion yuan re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises aims to provide liquidity to developers [1][15] - The effectiveness of this policy will depend on the execution details, which are yet to be disclosed [1][15] Internet Company Performance - Internet companies generally performed better than expected in Q1, driven by cost control and reduced losses [1][16] - Regulatory pressures are primarily focused on platform fees and market share, but the actual impact on companies is considered limited [1][16][17] Tencent and JD.com - Tencent and JD.com have issued convertible bonds, raising concerns about potential impacts on equity structure and liquidity [1][19] - Tencent's share buybacks are expected to mitigate the impact of major shareholder sell-offs, positively influencing stock prices in the long term [1][20] Energy and Materials Sector - The government's energy-saving and carbon reduction plan will strictly control new smelting capacities for copper and alumina, impacting the basic materials sector [1][21][22] - The international alumina market is experiencing tight supply, benefiting companies like Chalco [1][22] Inflation and Economic Rebalancing - The transition to a re-inflation phase is anticipated to take time, with economic growth expected to stabilize and gradually improve [1][23][24] - Achieving a healthy inflation rate of 2-3% will require addressing overcapacity and promoting consumption [1][24]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 18008430008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/inance/banking/elon-musk-jamie-dimon-fued-eba6f3ed EXCLUSIVE Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon Are Making Peace 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）和杰⽶·戴蒙 （Jamie Dimon）正在和平相处 After years of feuding, t ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 摩根士丹利：周期主题会议纪要 摘要 电动车产业面临的关税挑战主要集中在美、欧、中三国。美国对中国电动车进口关税提 高至100%，但实际影响有限，因为中国出口到美国的电动车数量较少。欧洲对中国电 动车出口可能加征 20%至 30%的关税，市场对此较为关注。中国计划将2.5升排量以上 的进口车关税提高到25%，主要影响雷克萨斯、宝马、奔驰、奥迪和保时捷等品牌 ·最近一周，理想汽车销量为8,600辆，环比有所回升，但仍未达到预期。蔚来汽车销量 为5,400辆，恢复较好，主要受换电月费下降和 ET7新改款的推动。小鹏汽车销量约为 2,000 辆，仍较低，关键在于未来Mona 平台新车型能否提升销量。整体来看，电动车 市场销量表现一般，未达到预期据) · 保时捷经销商在中国的联合抗议主要由于需求下降导致库存积压和新车毛利率为负。经 销商提出减量、亏损车型补贴以及更换保时捷中国CEO等诉求。预计今年保时捷经销商 获得补贴的概率较大，但这类补贴仅为暂时性措施，长期来看，市场竞争和价格战仍将 新能源运营商面临的市场前景广阔，但政策的不确定性和市场竞争加剧也带来了挑战 运 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company raised its 2024-26 earnings estimates, expecting 38% and 40% growth in sales and adjusted net profit for 2024 [2] - The price target was increased by 18% to HK$45, with a target 2024 P/E of 33x [2] - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 6,301 million, with net income of RMB 1,191 million [6] - For 2024, revenue is projected to grow to RMB 8,712 million, with net income expected to reach RMB 1,662 million [6] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 15.5% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2024 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The company creates over 1,000 toy figures annually, leveraging a large archive of 3D images for IP development [3] - New businesses such as toy bricks, mobile games, and apparel/accessories are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [4][16] - Overseas sales grew by ~250% in 1Q24, driven by a 70-80% increase in store count and ~100% growth in store productivity [11] - The company plans to open ~15 stores in the US and enter new markets like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam in 2024 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics - In 2023, Eastern Asia accounted for 55-60% of overseas sales, while Southeastern Asia and the West contributed ~25% and ~15%, respectively [13] - For 2024, management expects Eastern Asia to account for ~30% of sales, Southeastern Asia ~40%, and the West ~30% [13] - Overseas store productivity is projected to increase to ~RMB 18 million in 2024, up from ~RMB 12 million in 2023 [12] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is transforming into a leading IP operator, aiming to become a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, Sanrio, and Disney [5] - The strategy includes "brand-izing" top IPs and diversifying into new businesses like toy bricks, mobile games, and apparel [18] - The company is leveraging its large design archive to efficiently develop new products and extend IP value [3][16] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted strong demand for new products, with several items selling out quickly [10] - The company expects overseas sales to grow ~130% in 2024, with offline channel sales up ~190% [12] - Management is optimistic about the potential of new businesses and overseas expansion, which are seen as key drivers for 2025-26 [5][17] Other Important Information - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at 63.4% in 2024, with overseas markets contributing higher margins (~69%) [27] - The SG&A ratio is projected to decrease to 42.8% in 2024, reflecting potential operating leverage [27] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is estimated at 19.1% for 2024, slightly below management's optimal target of 20% [28] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document