Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **IT Budget Allocation by Chinese CEOs for 2024**: A cautious attitude is observed, with an expected overall growth rate of 10%, down 3 percentage points from previous expectations [2][3] - **Investment in AI Technologies**: 62% of CEOs plan to invest more aggressively in AI technologies over the next 12 months, particularly in large AI models, an increase from 59% in the last survey [2] - **Spending Trends**: Server spending remains stable, while spending on PCs and storage has decreased [2] Key Companies and Investment Preferences - **Preferred Companies**: Investors favor companies related to cloud AI, such as Huawei, Baidu, and Alibaba [2] - **Semiconductor Recommendations**: Companies like SK Hynix, AP, Memory, and TSMC are recommended in the semiconductor sector [2] - **Hardware Outlook**: Companies such as Flex, Quanta, and Home Technology are viewed positively in the hardware space [2] - **AI PC Market**: The promotion of AI PCs is still in its early stages, with CEOs showing an 8% tolerance for price increases [2] Domestic Market Trends - **Domestic Replacement Progress**: The trend of domestic replacement is gradually advancing, with companies with higher overseas revenue being favored [2] - **ERP and Digital Transformation**: These areas are considered the most resilient for investment, while IT outsourcing and consulting are viewed as lacking resilience [2] Impact of 2023 on 2024 - **Purchasing Behavior**: 52% of CEOs reported their purchasing behavior was affected in 2023, with 91% of CIOs believing this will have a lasting negative impact into 2024 [3] AI Market Dynamics - **Market Positioning**: In the AI sector, hardware companies and public cloud service providers dominate, with Huawei leading, followed by Baidu and Alibaba [4] ERP and Office Software Trends - **ERP Market Changes**: Delta ERP shows significant replacement growth in hospitals, while Kingsoft's WPS is gaining traction among both state-owned and private enterprises [5] - **Market Share Fluctuations**: Kingdee is gaining market share in ERP, while Yonyou's share is unstable [5] Public Cloud Market Insights - **Cloud Adoption Willingness**: Willingness to adopt public cloud services has decreased, with 30% of CEOs currently optimizing their cloud usage [6] Capital Market Preferences - **Investor Preferences**: Investors show a clear preference for stocks like Kingdee, Beisen, and Kingsoft, particularly due to valuation discrepancies between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7] Cybersecurity Market Outlook - **Growth Expectations**: The future growth rate in the cybersecurity sector is expected to decline, although government contributions remain significant [8] Server Market Demand - **Demand Trends**: The server market in mainland China shows demand growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2024, despite GPU procurement limitations [9] Communication Industry Trends - **Impact on Server Demand**: The declining communication industry and ongoing cloud optimization negatively affect domestic server demand [10] AI and PC Market Development - **Market Potential**: The AI and PC market is showing positive trends, with Lenovo expected to benefit significantly in the AI PC segment [11] Hardware Supply Chain Outlook - **Beneficiaries of AI PC Growth**: Suppliers in the hardware supply chain, particularly in PCB and cooling systems, are expected to benefit from the growth of the AI PC market [12] IT Investment Landscape - **Investment Trends**: IT investments are currently in a post-cycle phase, with software and IT service companies likely to face continued performance pressure in the short term [13]

Good morning and good afternoon. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's Thursday Macro Webcast. My name is Daniel Blake. I'm on the Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Team, and I'm pleased to be joined by four of my colleagues here across macro and equity research. We have Robin Xing, our Chief China Economist, Laura Wang, our Chief China Equity Strategist, Min Dai, our Head of Asia Macro Strategy, and Stanley Wang from our Greater China Autos Research Team. For this webcast, please note it's for Melbourne Morg ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley RESEARCH May 16, 2024 04:00 AM GMT Oil Data Digest I Europe Key Agency Revisions - May 2024 We summarise May oil market forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC. The IEA and EIA have both revised 2O24 demand growth lower, but again mostly due to upwards revisions of 2023 demand baselines. For 2025, non-OPEC supply and demand have both been revised up. Key Takeaways IEA - Revised up 2023 demand baseline again, compressing 2024 demand growth. Significantly cut 2024 non-O ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Srini Ramaswamy AC (1-415) 315-8117 srini.ramaswamy@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Ipek Ozil (1-212) 834-2305 ipek.ozil@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Philip Michaelides (1-212) 834-2096 philip.michaelides@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Arjun Parikh (1-212) 834-4436 arjun.parikh@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Fixed Income Strategy 10 May 2024 J.P.Morgan Interest Rate Derivatives The election enters the hearts and minds of options ...

多资米 开报数据加 知识星 Oil Markets Weekly Forever Nine We view the commodities sell-off over the last two days as collateral damage from the Fed repricing and non-fundamental in nature. Yet it sent a strong signal that Brent's ceiling is indeed s90, as physical buyers stepped away. Our fundamental view on oil has not changed: Brent averaged $89 in April ysy our fair value of $86, and May continues to screen at $88, ahead ofthe OPEC meeting on June 1. While several key indicators tracked by OPEC suggest relatively st ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley RESEARCH May 7, 2024 08:00 PM GMT TSMC / Asia Pacific Arm-based chips lead to higher CPU foundry market share; OW WHAT'S CHANGED TSMC (2330.TW) Price Target From NT $860.00 To NT$928.00 The new breed of Arm-based CPU designs - whether they be 98 NVIDIA + MediaTek's Al PC chips or Apple's Al server chips = will be a more important growth driver than Intel's'CPU outsourcing. TSMC fabricates almost 100% of Arm-based CPUs, vs. 30% of x86 CPUs (e.g., for Intel and AMD). ...

开报数据加\ 公众号：水木纪要 J.P.Morgan Global Markets Strategy 03 May 2024 Correction (See disclosures for details) This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy May 2024 outlook: Add in May and stay · After three years of EPS declines and P/E de ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley RESEARCH May 7, 2024 07:23 PM GMT The Oil Manual Overshoot, Undershoot Oil market indicators have turned softer in recent weeks, and prices have declined from recent peaks. The oil market is not tight now, but we see seasonal strength ahead in coming months. Our assessment remains that fundamentals support Brent at around $90/bbl by 3Q Key Takeaways shuin The oil market has given off weaker signals recently: calendar spreads, physical diffs and refining margins hav ...

各位上午好今天是5月10日星期五欢迎来到摩根史丹利周五的新经济板块热点前三我是Charlie请注意本次会议请勉向摩根史丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问不对媒体开放这次的视频直播将会由我及Daniel、刘端、Sharon跟Howard 那我们这次讨论主题主要是AI PC的一些对半导体Component的一些Implication以及最近AI Data Center的硬件有什么更新那主要是我们在Computex之前的话陆陆续续有一些Products那在Semiconductor这边的话我们有一个Global Insights是在讲这个Windows ARM的Chip那这是我今天主要 想要share的部分那另外Sharon的话也有一个鸿海的Single Stock Insights在讲GB200所以我们可能主题就是围绕这两个比较大的products那这中间如果各位有什么问题的话可以在提问的消息框对我们发问那我们最后会有一个Q&A好那首先的话我们先看一下到底这个 AIPC 我们一些assumption嘛那第一个的话我们是还是用一个45TAS做一个定义来算这个AIPC的presentation那照这样定义来看的话其实我们Mo ...

我是张蕾 Rachel基础测量行业的分析师今天的话我们讨论的主题比较多一个是请我们保险行业的分析师赵耀来聊一下保险行业整个一季度的一个业绩的增速以及他们最近的一个观点然后接着我们公用事业和新能源的行业分析师李一凡会聊一下核电火电在整个电力转型中的角色以及最近新澳的美国路演的反馈 接着我们交易行业的首席范倩蕾会聊一下最近的五一出行以及旅游的数据的解读然后我们地产行业的首席张永天会聊一下最近刚出来的房地产区库存的政策的解读然后最后我们香港的地产研究员麦静颖会聊一下整个香港零售业的展望以及他们最近刚上调的港铁的评级到overweight开始之前例行我需要读个disclaimer 请注意每次会议请面向摩根斯坦利的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话 请请退出会议另外提示一下在整个会议的过程中您可以随时在屏幕上发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样我们可以节约一点DNA的等待的时间好的 我也不多说了我把时间先交给Rick好的 谢谢Rachel我是保险行业的分析师Rick 那我这边跟大家更新一下我们最近对于整个保险板块包括对于一级报的一些更新那首先上的话我们整体上对于保险板块目前其实相比于去年下半年或者是今年 ...