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Economic Growth and Policy - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 due to increased US tariffs and domestic challenges[7][8] - Policymakers are anticipated to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025[7] - The property sector is projected to weigh on GDP growth by 2.0pp in 2025, continuing its multi-year drag[40] Trade and Tariffs - US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is expected to increase by 20pp, reducing China's real GDP by 0.7pp in 2025[7][9] - Chinese exports to the US are likely to decline significantly, while exports to other countries may increase modestly, keeping total goods export volume flat[50][54] Inflation and Consumption - CPI and PPI inflation are forecasted to be 0.8% and 0% respectively in 2025, below consensus expectations[14][69] - Household consumption growth is expected to remain flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by ongoing subsidy programs but weighed down by declining house prices[21][22] Labor Market and Wages - Youth unemployment reached 18.8% in August 2024, reflecting weak labor market conditions[27] - Urban wage growth slowed to 2.6% in Q3 2024, with expectations of modest improvement in 2025[31][32] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is expected to widen by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% in 2025, driven by increased local government special bond issuance[80] - The PBOC is likely to cut the 7-day OMO rate to 1.1% by end-2025, with additional RRR cuts expected to support fiscal expansion[109] Property Market - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60% respectively since the 2020-21 peak[34] - Recent housing easing measures may stabilize home prices in some large cities, but the nationwide property downturn is expected to persist[39][40]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 QUICK TAKE 4 November 2024 Global Luxury Goods 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 Global Luxury Goods: Preliminary ideas and reference points on the financial feasibility of a Moncler + Burberry deal 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 Luca Solca +44 207 959 4884 luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com James Hooper +44 207 170 0675 james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo +44 207 170 0640 yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Eric Chen, CFA +44 207 170 0635 eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com ...

14 August 2024 | 2:40PM EDT Viridian Therapeutics Inc. (VRDN): SC TED Race Heats Up Following SLRN's Prioritization on Lonigutamab On Tuesday 8/13, SLRN (not covered) announced its refocused pipeline strategy prioritizing lonigutamab in thyroid eye disease (TED), discontinuing investments in HS/PsA, and a 33% reduction in force to extend cash runway to mid-2027. Recall that lonigutamab is an SC formulated IGF-1R mAb competing directly with VRDN-003. Early lonigutamab PoC data from 12 patients was disclosed ...

14 August 2024 | 4:06PM BST Riksbank Preview — Easing Further in August BOTTOM LINE: At its last meeting in June, the Riksbank's Executive Board kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, and guided that "[i]f inflation prospects remain the same, the policy rate can be cut two or three times during the second half of the year." Since then, core inflation has broadly printed close to the Riksbank's June MPR forecast, while the recent CPIF inflation numbers were below the Riksbank's projections. The activity pi ...

14 August 2024 | 12:36PM BST Poland: July Inflation Print Confirmed; Jump Caused by Rise in Energy Prices Bottom Line: The final July inflation estimate confirmed the preliminary release, which showed inflation rising from +2.6%yoy in June to +4.2%yoy in July (in a downside surprise to consensus). The increase was mainly driven by higher utility inflation (Exhibit 1), which rose from -1.6%yoy in June to +10.1%yoy in July on the back of the recent partial expiry of energy price shields. Food inflation in Jul ...

13 August 2024 | 5:42PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. (603338.SS) Read-across from US AWP OEMs/rental companies' 2Q24: Softened fleet utilization; rental capex cadence continued to normalize Buy 603338.SS 12m Price Target: Rmb81.00 Price: Rmb51.85 Upside: 56.2% Nick Zheng, CFA +852-2978-1405 | nick.zheng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yan Lin +852-2978-7020 | yan.lin@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Selina Yan +852-2978-0178 | shuling.yan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L. ...

13 August 2024 | 6:12PM HKT Yue Yuen (0551.HK)/Pou Sheng (3813.HK) 2024 earnings review: Raises OEM FY24 order guidance; PS protects margin amid demand uncertainties; Buy We attended Yue Yuen/Pou Sheng's briefing meeting today post their earnings release. We are encouraged by mgmt's upbeat tone on OEM orders with raised full-year volume guidance to LDD yoy growth given the concerns on weaker demand globally; while the retail business in China (under Pou Sheng) faces challenges on weak consumption power and ...

14 August 2024 | 6:40AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (tme) Buy Earnings Review: 2024 in-line: Shifting gear to ARPPU over subs, expectation reset but still long runway of growth; Buy TMEUpside: 27.7%12m Price Target: $14.20Price: $11.12 1698.HK12m Price Target: HK$55.10Price: HK$53.50Upside: 3.0% TME delivered in-line 2Q24 results (see our note) yet produced a mixed outlook over 2H24-2025 including: 1) A shift in gear of growth drivers may raise concerns for some investors on multiple contraction, ...

14 August 2024 | 12:34AM HKT Wanhua Chemical Group (600309.SS): Revising estimates and TP post 2024 results; maintain Buy (on CL) Post 2Q24 results (see our first take), we reduce our 2024E-26E EPS estimates by 5-9% to reflect 1) weaker-than-expected margins for Wanhua's performance. chemicals and new materials segment mainly due to intensified domestic competition in aliphatic isocyanates (ADI) based on our channel checks and 2) higher-than-expected opex, impairment losses and finance expenses. That said, ...