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TBO Tek Ltd. (TBOT.BO) 1QFY25 in line; Sector~leading growth to sustain despite near~term travel weakness; Buy
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:59
14 August 2024 | 6:11AM IST Buy | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------- ...
The 720: Sea Ltd, Taiwan ODM, Asics, TME, Wanhua, China TSF, Global Market Views
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:59
Investment Ratings - Sea Ltd: Buy [2] - Asics: Buy [7] - Tencent Music Entertainment (TME): Buy [7] - Wanhua Chemical: Buy [8] - CP ALL: Buy [8] - BDMS: Buy [8] - Envicool: Buy [8] - Lotes: Downgrade to Neutral [9] Core Insights - Sea Ltd has improved growth outlook with FY24 GMV growth guidance raised to mid-20%, and Shopee expected to return to EBITDA positive from Q3 2024 [2] - Asics reported strong operating profits and expects orders for 1H25 to increase by over 20% due to continued demand [7] - TME is shifting focus to ARPPU growth, lowering net adds guidance but maintaining music revenue targets [7] - Wanhua Chemical's estimates revised down due to weaker margins but maintains a Buy rating based on expected recovery in polyurethane demand [8] - CP ALL showed healthy revenue growth and margin improvement, with a higher 12-month target price [8] - BDMS reported solid revenue growth but weaker margins, maintaining a Buy rating [8] - Envicool anticipates strong growth momentum in data center cooling, maintaining a Buy rating [8] - Lotes faces intensifying competition in server sockets, leading to a downgrade to Neutral [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Sea Ltd - Strong Q2 results with a significant stock reaction due to revised growth guidance [2] - E-commerce EBITDA loss narrowed, with Shopee Brazil achieving positive contribution margin for the first time [2] Asics - Operating profits for 1H12/24 were ¥59.0 billion, a 76% increase year-on-year [7] - July sales increased by 19% year-on-year, outperforming the company's 2H sales outlook [7] Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) - 2Q24 results were in line, but outlook for 2H24-2025 is mixed [7] - Management aims to maintain music revenue by increasing ARPPU [7] Wanhua Chemical - Revised EPS estimates down by 5-9% post 2Q24 results [8] - Anticipates a cyclical recovery in polyurethane demand over the next 12 months [8] CP ALL - 2Q24 PATMI of Bt6.2 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase [8] - Strong performance at CVS with robust revenue growth [8] BDMS - 2Q24 EPS of Bt0.21, a 9% year-on-year increase [8] - Revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, but EBITDA margin weaker than expected [8] Envicool - Solid 2Q24 results with expectations for strong growth in data center cooling [8] Lotes - Downgraded to Neutral due to rising competition in server sockets [9]
Taiwan ODM: AI server timeframe re~calibrating adds uncertainties in 2H24; general servers and PCs in recovery; 2Q24 / July review
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:59
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including ASUS, Quanta, and Gigabyte, while others like Compal and Pegatron are rated as "Neutral" [25]. Core Insights - The supply chain for AI servers is experiencing increased uncertainties regarding the launch timeline of new models, now expected to be late 2024 to early 2025, which may affect client order decisions [5][6]. - General servers are showing signs of recovery, with notable revenue increases reported by companies such as FIL and King Slide, indicating a positive trend in the sector [6][8]. - The report highlights a mixed outlook for PCs, with companies focused on commercial models expecting growth, while those with consumer model exposure anticipate a decline [6][8]. Summary by Sections AI Servers - The AI server market is facing uncertainties due to model revisions and delayed launches, impacting client order strategies [5][6]. - The expected launch of new AI server models has been pushed to late 2024 to early 2025, creating a cautious outlook for the second half of 2024 [5]. General Servers - Companies like FIL and King Slide reported significant year-over-year revenue growth of 16% and 92% respectively, indicating a recovery in general servers [6][8]. - The overall sentiment in the supply chain remains positive for growth in general servers during the second half of 2024 [6]. PCs - ODMs with a higher focus on commercial PCs are optimistic about a single-digit increase in global shipments for 2024, while those focused on consumer models expect flat to declining shipments [6][8]. - ASUS aims for a 15-20% quarter-over-quarter increase in PC shipments in Q3 2024, driven by Windows 11 and AI PCs [6]. Networking and Capacity Expansion - FII's networking revenues increased by 20% year-over-year in Q2 2024, surpassing expectations, driven by demand from CSP clients [7]. - Wistron announced a $214 million investment in capacity expansion for AI servers across multiple regions, reflecting positive trends in the AI server market [7]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with a strong presence in general servers and commercial PCs, such as Hon Hai, FII, and Quanta, are likely to outperform during the upcoming product cycle [8].
Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK): Earnings Review: 1H results beatwith margin improvements; Highlight potential in analgesia field; Buy
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:59
14 August 2024 | 7:40AM HKT Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK): Earnings Review: 1H results beat with margin improvements; Highlight potential in analgesia field; Buy 1H beats on expenses saving / one-off gains: 1H24 sales of Rmb15.9bn (+11% y/y vs GSe Rmb15.3bn) was better than our expectations, mainly coming from 1) strong growth in oncology (+19.5% y/y) benefited from smooth ramp-up of newly launched products including F-627 (G-CSF) and four biosimilar drugs (Rituxan/Humira/Avastin/Herceptin), 2) solid gro ...
SJVN Ltd. (SJVN.BO)First Take: Q1FY25 ~Hydro generation normalisation drives YoY PAT growth against a weak base
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:59
13 August 2024 | 10:01PM IST SJVN Ltd. (SJVN.BO): First Take: Q1FY25 - Hydro generation normalisation drives YoY PAT growth against a weak base SJVN's Q1FY25 adjusted consolidated PAT of c.Rs3.6bn rose 37% YoY against a weak base. Hydro generation increased c.54% YoY, as water flow normalised after a weak Q1FY24, which should have resulted in no / minimum fixed cost under recovery this Q. Solar generation, though minuscule, was up 240% YoY, indicative of SJVN's push into renewable capacity addition. The ear ...
Seven West Media (SWM.AX) FY24 First Take: Soft result and outlook; Sept/Oct booking trends below; Buy~back not renewed; Sell
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:58
Investment Rating - Seven West Media (SWM) is rated **Sell** with a 12-month price target of A$0 14 [1][7] Core Views - SWM reported FY24 Sales/EBITDA/NPAT of A$1,415mn/A$187mn/A$78mn, representing declines of -5%/-33%/-47% YoY respectively [1] - Cash conversion remains weak with GOCF of A$77mn (41% of EBITDA), impacted by the ARN acquisition [1] - Net Debt to EBITDA increased to 1 6x (1 3x ex-ARN) [1] - No dividend was declared for FY24, and the share buyback program will not be renewed in FY25 due to advertising market uncertainty [1] - FY25 operating costs are expected to be between A$1,200-1,210mn, marginally higher than GSe estimates [1] - SWM's Sept/Oct bookings are down 4-5% YoY, with SMI TV revenues declining -8%/-12% in Sept/Oct [1] Financial Performance - FY24 total revenue was A$1,415mn, a 1% increase vs GSe estimates but a 5% decline YoY [1][5] - FY24 EBITDA was A$187mn, a 3% decline vs GSe estimates and a 33% decline YoY [1][5] - FY24 NPAT was A$78mn, an 8% decline vs GSe estimates and a 47% decline YoY [1][5] - FY24 EPS was 5 1¢ps, a 7% decline vs GSe estimates and a 45% decline YoY [5] Market Outlook - SWM's revenue environment is challenged, with 90% of revenues tied to the TV market, which is expected to face structural declines in audiences [6] - FY25 revenues are assumed to decline by 2% (TV + BVOD), with a flat total TV market and a 4% decline in the total FTA market [1] - The Olympics impacted July/August trading, but tougher comps are expected in Sept/Oct [1] Valuation and Forecasts - SWM's market cap is A$154 7mn, with an enterprise value of A$725 5mn [8] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at A$1,373 8mn, with EBITDA of A$182 9mn and EPS of 0 05¢ps [8] - The stock trades at a P/E of 2 8x and a P/B of 0 7x for FY24E [8]
Pandora (PNDORA.US)Post 2Q24:Top~line strength continues, forward setup incrementally more difficult; Sell on valuation
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:57
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating for Pandora (PNDORA.CO) [2][6]. Core Insights - Pandora demonstrated solid organic top-line growth of +15% in 2Q24, exceeding the Visible Alpha Consensus Data estimate of +12% [2]. - The company upgraded its FY24 organic revenue guidance to a midpoint of +9-12%, up from +8-10% previously [2]. - Despite the positive near-term performance, the report highlights increasing challenges for the second half of 2024, including tougher comparables, commodity margin pressures, and heightened expectations for operating leverage [2][3]. - The report notes that Pandora's current valuation is at a premium compared to historical multiples, trading at 15x PE versus a 10-year average of 13x [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24 is forecasted at Dkr31,393.4 million, with EPS estimates revised to Dkr64.45 for FY24 [4][8]. - The report anticipates total revenue growth of 11.6% for FY24, with EBIT margins projected at 25% [4][8]. Market Trends - Current LFL (like-for-like) trading is reported at +MSD, with expectations for moderation in growth, particularly in Germany [3]. - The US market remains a key focus, with space growth driving performance, while LFL growth has moderated to +5% in 2Q24 [3]. Commodity Impact - Recent moderation in spot silver prices has led to a reduction in cumulative spot commodity impacts to -140bps, down from -220bps [3][7]. - Pricing strategies are highlighted as the most significant offset to commodity pressures, alongside cost efficiencies [7]. Product Performance - New product categories, including LG Diamonds and the Essence collection, have shown strong performance, with the Essence collection contributing approximately 3% to total sales [7][8]. - Core charm collections, however, have underperformed, growing only +1% [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target is set at Dkr1,060, reflecting slight organic growth upgrades and reduced commodity headwinds [8]. - The report emphasizes that despite brand momentum, the current valuation appears to be largely priced in, warranting a "Sell" rating [8].
Rede D’Or (RDOR3.SA) 2Q24 First Take: Solid operational KPIs across the board; Reiterate Buy
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:57
13 August 2024 | 9:59PM BRT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Rede D'Or (RDOR3.SA): 2Q24 First Take: Solid operational KPIs across the board; Reiterate Buy RDOR's 2Q24 consolidated EBITDA grew 28% YoY and was in line with GSe; solid KPIs in hospital and insurance divisions. While consolidated operational performance was in line with our expectation, we note some positive KPIs in the result that we read as positive. We highlight: 1) compelling hospital EBITDA margin expansion of 1.0 pp YoY even with a 2% decl ...
Pro Medicus Ltd. (PME.AX)FY24 First Take: Strong result, NPAT +5% vs. GSe; Lurie Children’s Hospital contract announced; Buy
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:57
14 August 2024 | 10:10AM AEST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Pro Medicus Ltd. (PME.AX): FY24 First Take: Strong result, NPAT +5% vs. GSe; Lurie Children's Hospital contract announced; Buy PME reported FY24 Sales/EBITDA/NPAT +29%/+31%/+37% vs. pcp to A$162mn/A$120mn/A$83mn, which were 1%/1%/5% vs. GSe, with EBITDA 2% vs. Visible Alpha Consensus Data (A$118mn). Outlook/contract wins: (1) Contract pipeline remains strong in terms of quantity and quality, with PME having signed Lurie Children's Hospital, the ...
Rakus Co. (3923.T)Earnings Review: 1Q profits above expectations; cloud sales momentum improving; Buy
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:57
13 August 2024 | 6:18PM JST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Rakus Co. (3923.T) Buy Earnings Review: 1Q profits above expectations; cloud sales momentum improving; Buy 3923.T 12m Price Target: ¥2,900 Price: ¥1,912 Upside: 51.7% Norihiro Miyazaki +81(3)4587-9842 | norihiro.miyazaki@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Ryohei Kurita +81(3)4587-1799 | ryohei.kurita@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Rakus's 1Q3/25 operating profits of ¥2.3 bn, reported after the August 13 close, were slightly above our estim ...