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Latin America Metals & Mining: Good 2Q24; Leverage Concerns and Weak Capex Execution Remains
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:55
13 August 2024 | 10:29AM BRT Latin America Metals & Mining: Good 2024; Leverage Concerns and Weak Capex Execution Remains CSNA3 (Sell) EBITDA of R$2.6B (+35% α/q and +17% γ/γ) was 4% above GSe (+13% vs. Bloomberg consensus) mostly due to stronger steel earnings (beat on cost and product mix). CMIN3 (Sell) EBITDA of R$1.6B (+44% q/q and +47% y/y) came broadly in line with GSe, but 8% above consensus. We expect a slightly positive reaction for both CSN and CMIN. Steel weakness has been driven by a combination ...
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:55
13 August 2024 | 8:37AM EDT Market Intelligence: US Morning Update Click "here" to listen to the US Morning Call. Stocks in Asia traded higher Tuesday, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+3.5%) as it resumed trading after a long weekend. Mainland China's markets also ended higher, despite weak loan in demand in 2Q (see: "China: PBOC Q2 Surveys: Weaker loan demand; more willingness to spend on travel; muted house price expectations"). Australia's ASX also eked out a minor gain on the back of rebounding business surv ...
Carlsberg (CARLb.CO)First Take: Solid organic EBIT growth in H1 despite A&P step~up; guidance raised
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:51
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Carlsberg with a 12-month price target of DKK 1,100, indicating a potential upside of 36.7% from the current price of DKK 804.40 [10][11]. Core Insights - Carlsberg reported strong organic EBIT growth of +4.6% in H1, with a gross margin expansion of +160bps to 46.3%, allowing for a 20% year-on-year increase in marketing spend [1][2]. - The company raised its organic EBIT growth guidance to +4% to +6%, up from a previous range of +1% to +5%, reflecting confidence despite unfavorable weather conditions in Western Europe [2][9]. - The report highlights that Carlsberg's valuation is undemanding, trading at 12.9x CY25 P/E and 8.3x EV/EBITDA, excluding the expected accretion from Britvic [3][9]. Summary by Region Western Europe - Western Europe, accounting for 51% of FY23 sales, experienced a volume decline of -3.0% in Q2 due to poor weather, leading to an organic revenue decline of -1.3% [6]. - The region's organic operating profit grew by +1.0%, supported by higher revenue per hectoliter despite increased marketing costs [6]. Asia - Asia, representing 32% of FY23 sales, saw organic revenue growth of +4.7% in Q2, with beer volumes increasing by +1% [7]. - Despite significant marketing investments, organic operating profit grew by +5.3%, with strong performance in the premium portfolio in China [7]. Central & Eastern Europe and India (CEE&I) - CEE&I, which contributed 18% to FY23 sales, reported total volume growth of +6.0% in Q2, with organic revenue growth of +9.8% [8]. - The region's organic operating profit increased by +14.1%, driven by strong performance in Ukraine and solid growth in the premium portfolio [8].
China Banks:Gov. bonds supported July TSF, lowering both bank asset yields and capital consumption
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:51
13 August 2024 | 10:19PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 China Banks Gov. bonds supported July TSF, lowering both bank asset yields and capital consumption The July TSF data suggests strong government credit demand but weak corporate and retail. This trend has not changed since 2H23, but we highlight: 1) Slower growth of both loans and deposits. New loans to the real economy came in at Rmb -0.08tn, with new corporate and retail deposits coming in at Rmb -0.8tn in July 2024. 2) Further diverging yoy gro ...
CAE Inc. (CAE.US): F1Q25 First Take: mixed results
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:51
13 August 2024 | 8:01PM EDT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 CAE Inc. (CAE.TO): F1Q25 First Take: mixed results Bottom Line: CAE F1Q25 results are mixed. Revenue beat FactSet consensus by 2% in each business segment, but total segment EBIT is below on a softer Civil margin. The utilization rate in Civil remains high, and its book-to-bill was 1.31X in the quarter as demand remains strong. Defense posted its highest margin in over a year and owns 50% of a JV that booked a 25-year contract worth $11bn. The com ...
CEEMEA Chemicals:Names with growth optionality to outperform
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:50
13 August 2024 | 7:40PM GST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 CEEMEA Chemicals Names with growth optionality to outperform 2H24 outlook: remain selective in the space Following 2Q24 results, we update our numbers to incorporate the latest financial/operational metrics from the quarter. We see the combination of elevated feedstock costs and high freight cost weighing on margins in 2H24, while a focus on operational efficiency and volume improvement along with higher ethane/methane availability in 4Q could sup ...
Australia Energy Monthly
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:50
Global Investment Research Australia Energy Monthly August 2024 Table of contents 2 3 . 1. . ( • . | --- | |------------------------------| | Key updates | | Coverage summary | | Company production summaries | | Commodity prices & FX | | | Oceania LNG exports Western Australia gas production Western Australia gas consumption Eastern Australia gas production Eastern Australia key energy flows New Zealand gas production Australia liquid fuel New Zealand liquid fuel Offshore activity map 4-12 13-14 15 16-17 18 ...
Brazil: Strong Services Activity in June (Ramos)
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:50
13 August 2024 | 8:32AM EDT Brazil: Strong Services Activity in June (Ramos) Bottom Line: Services activity firmed in June, well above consensus for an already strong rebound from May. The strength of services activity in June was broad-based across the 5 main categories. On a quarterly basis services activity expanded to 0.7% goq sa (2.0% yoy) during 2Q24. The carry-over for 3Q2024 is at 1.0% and for 2024 at 2.0%. Going forward, we expect services activity to benefit from continued strong fiscal stimulus ( ...
Asics Corp. (7936.T):Earnings Review,In line with recent guidance raise; July sales strong, order outlook robust, share buyback announced; Buy (on CL)
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Asics Corp. with a 12-month price target of ¥3,100, indicating an upside potential of 33.4% from the current price of ¥2,324 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - Asics Corp. has shown strong performance in its earnings, with operating profits for the first half of FY12/24 reaching ¥59.0 billion, a 76% year-over-year increase, aligning with revised guidance [1][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining production volume below order volume to create a sense of scarcity in the market, which is seen as a strategy to avoid brand erosion and maintain gross margins [5][9]. - The report highlights structural improvements in the company, particularly in performance running shoes, which are driving sales growth across other product categories [8][9]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - The operating profit margin improved to 15.0%, up 6.7 percentage points year-over-year, driven by gross margin improvements and effective SG&A cost control [1][4]. - July sales were up 19% year-over-year in yen terms, outperforming the company's revised sales outlook for the second half [1][4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts FY12/26 operating profits of ¥128 billion, with an operating profit margin of 16.6%, reflecting significant growth potential [6][7]. - Expected annual sales growth of over 7% year-over-year from FY12/25 onward, supported by strong performance in running products and a shift to higher value-added products [6][9]. Valuation and Market Position - Asics is considered undervalued at an EV/NOPAT of 18.3x for FY25E compared to the average of 25.6x for global sports brands, indicating potential for share price appreciation [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's efforts to regain support from top athletes and improve market share in performance running shoes, which is expected to enhance overall sales [8][9].
Boundless Bio Inc. (BOLD.US) 2Q24 Update: Proof of Concept data for both ‘355 and ‘825 now expected in 2H25. With measures, cash
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-14 02:50
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Boundless Bio Inc. (BOLD) [8][20]. Core Insights - The timelines for clinical data reporting for BBI-355 and BBI-825 have been adjusted to the second half of 2025, delayed from the previous expectation of the second half of 2024 [5][6]. - Management is implementing measures to enhance enrollment in the Phase 1/2 POTENTIATE clinical trial, including expanding trial sites and collaborating with multiple NGS providers [4][5]. - The company has a cash position of $179.3 million, which is expected to provide a runway into the fourth quarter of 2026, extending guidance from the previous second half of 2026 [6]. Summary by Sections BBI-355 (CHK1 Inhibitor) - The initial clinical data for BBI-355 is now expected in the second half of 2025, with management aiming to present data involving a sufficient number of patients for informed assessments [5][6]. - The cohort involving combination with CDK4/6 is expected to initiate by the end of 2024 or early 2025 [5]. BBI-825 (RNR Inhibitor) - The STARMAP trial for BBI-825 is ongoing, with the first patient dosed in April 2024, showing encouraging bioavailability and good tolerability [5][6]. - Data from the Phase 1/2 trial is anticipated to be shared in the second half of 2025 [5]. Financial Guidance and Model Updates - The report indicates that the steps taken by management to enhance trial enrollment are prudent, and the cash position allows for extended operational runway [6]. - Current estimates for potential approval and commercialization of BBI-355 remain intact at 2028, with ongoing monitoring of enrollment efforts [6].