14 August 2024 | 6:40AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (tme) Buy Earnings Review: 2024 in-line: Shifting gear to ARPPU over subs, expectation reset but still long runway of growth; Buy TMEUpside: 27.7%12m Price Target: $14.20Price: $11.12 1698.HK12m Price Target: HK$55.10Price: HK$53.50Upside: 3.0% TME delivered in-line 2Q24 results (see our note) yet produced a mixed outlook over 2H24-2025 including: 1) A shift in gear of growth drivers may raise concerns for some investors on multiple contraction, ...

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating on Wanhua Chemical Group (600309 SS) with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb106 0 per share, up from Rmb103 0 [2][5] Core Thesis - The polyurethane cycle is bottoming out, with volume recovery across major players and sequentially improved pricing, although spread recovery was delayed due to high raw material prices [3] - Wanhua Chemical is well-positioned for cyclical recovery, with a leading position in one of the most consolidated commodity chemical supply chains and long-term structural growth opportunities [8] - The company is expected to grow earnings at a +c 20% CAGR over 2023-26E, driven by new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals and normalization of petrochemical earnings [6][8] Financial Estimates - 2024E-26E EPS estimates reduced by 5-9% to reflect weaker-than-expected margins in performance chemicals and new materials segment, higher opex, impairment losses, and finance expenses [2] - 2024E revenue estimate revised to Rmb198 310mn (from Rmb199 624mn), 2025E to Rmb228 460mn (from Rmb231 413mn), and 2026E to Rmb261 360mn (from Rmb262 856mn) [5] - 2024E net profit estimate revised to Rmb16 670mn (from Rmb18 227mn), 2025E to Rmb22 071mn (from Rmb24 199mn), and 2026E to Rmb26 748mn (from Rmb28 149mn) [5] Valuation and Catalysts - Target EV/EBITDA multiple slightly lowered to 10 5x (from 11 0x) to reflect reduced growth forecasts, but valuation base year rolled forward to average 2024E-25E [2] - Potential catalysts include US rate cuts and improving construction activities in Europe in early-mid 2025, which should support recovery in polyurethane demand and drive pricing/margin upside [2] - Strong pipeline of new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals (e g , polyolefin elastomers and flavor and fragrance) scheduled to come on stream in 2H24 [3] Industry Position - Wanhua Chemical is the largest global producer of MDI (30% share of 2023 global capacity) and TDI (25% share of 2022 capacity) [6] - The company accounts for ~80% of global new polyurethane supply over 2023-25E, with continued volume share gains expected [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on UroGen Pharma (URGN) with a 12-month price target of $22, indicating a potential upside of 51.6% from the current price of $14.51 [42][43]. Core Insights - UroGen Pharma's Jelmyto sales remained flat year-over-year at $21.8 million, slightly below estimates, with challenges related to Medicaid/Medicare discounting impacting revenue guidance for FY24 [2][42]. - The company is focused on completing the rolling NDA submission for UGN-102, with expectations for priority review and potential commercialization in early 2025 [2][42]. - Management expressed confidence in the company's capitalization to reach profitability as it launches UGN-102 and advances its pipeline, despite caution regarding UGN-102's ability to replace TURBT surgery in the near term [2][42]. Financial Summary - UroGen Pharma reported total operating expenses of $184.9 million for 2Q24, slightly above expectations, driven by pre-commercial manufacturing costs for UGN-102 and increased R&D expenses for UGN-103 [2][42]. - The gross margin improved to 90.1%, while R&D expenses increased by 7.1% year-over-year [15][42]. - The company anticipates revenue growth, with projections of $95 million to $102 million for FY24, contingent on the uptake of Jelmyto and the successful launch of UGN-102 [2][42]. Model Adjustments - The report updates its model to reflect actuals from 2Q24 and adjusts near-term operating expense assumptions based on recent trends [2][42].

13 August 2024 | 9:39AM EDT USA: Core Producer Prices Soft on Net in July; Lowering July Core PCE Tracking to +0.14% BOTTOM LINE: The producer price index (PPI) increased by somewhat less than expected in July. Relative to expectations, core producer price inflation was soft on net, with the PPI excluding food and energy remaining unchanged (vs. consensus) +0.2%) and the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increasing 0.3% (vs. consensus +0.2%). Based on details in the PPI report, we now estimate ...

13 August 2024 | 9:16PM SGT UOL Group (UTOS.SI): 1H24 slightly below: Executing on divestment and asset enhancement initiatives despite weaker resi; Buy UOL reported 1H24 core Patmi of S$143m, +8% YoY and slightly below at 39%/43% of GSe/IBES consensus. Revenue was -7% YoY with lower residential sales partially offset by higher investment and hotel revenue, and EBITDA +3% on higher contribution from commercial/hotel segments. While residential sales and contribution remain weak, commercial portfolio saw str ...

13 August 2024 | 4:56PM CEST eutra Thyssenkrupp Nucera (NCH2.DE) A quarter of strong delivery, but lack of visibility on new green hydrogen orders weighs on forecasts NCH2.DE 12m Price Target: €10.50 Price: €8.48 Upside: 23.9% Thyssenkrupp Nucera reported 3Q24 results this morning (August 13th), with total revenue of €235.7mn, in line with the preliminary results, its highest quarterly revenue recorded thanks to the ongoing implementation of the CA and AWE projects, and positive operating income of €0.8mn t ...

13 August 2024 | 5:50PM BRT eutra TOTVS SA (TOTS3.SA) Updating Estimates Post-2024 TOTS3.SA 12m Price Target: R$34.00 Price: R$29.50 Upside: 15.3% We update our estimates to factor in the mostly-in-line 2Q24 results as well as updated macroeconomic assumptions. All in, we raise our 12-month price target to BRL34.00/share (up from BRL33.00) mainly on lower cost of capital, and maintain our Neutral rating. Overall, the solid ARR trends in 2Q corroborate the constructive view on revenue-growth drivers we prese ...

13 August 2024 | 8:34PM JST Ulvac (6728.T) Buy Earnings Review: 40 above expectations; mixed business environment for FY6/25, but management says medium-term plan targets within reach; Buy 6728.T 12m Price Target: ¥12,000 Price: V8,249 Upside: 45.5% 4Q above expectations; FY6/25 guidance also cleared market expectations 4Q6/24 operating profits of ¥9.4 bn, reported after the August 13 close, were well above our estimate of ¥7.3 bn, guidance of ¥2.6 bn, and the Bloomberg consensus of around ¥5.5 bn. 4Q order ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) with a 12-month price target of US$16.00 per ADS and HK$62.30 for 1698.HK, indicating an upside potential of 21.9% [7][10]. Core Insights - Tencent Music reported 2Q24 revenue largely in line with expectations, showing a slight year-over-year decline of 2% but a significant increase in non-GAAP operating profit by 39% year-over-year [2][4]. - The company achieved a record high gross profit margin (GPM) of 42%, reflecting an 8 percentage point increase year-over-year, driven by operating leverage from online music services and subscriber growth [4][8]. - The number of paying subscribers increased by 3.5 million quarter-over-quarter, with an average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) of RMB 10.7, marking a 10% year-over-year improvement [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Net Revenues**: RMB 7,160 million, down 2% year-over-year, and slightly below Goldman Sachs estimates [4]. - **Online Music Revenues**: RMB 5,424 million, up 28% year-over-year, indicating strong growth in this segment [4]. - **Adjusted Net Income**: RMB 1,873 million, a 22% increase year-over-year, slightly above estimates [4]. - **Gross Margin**: Increased to 42%, surpassing expectations, with a target of 45% in the medium term [4][8]. - **Operating Expenses**: Remained disciplined, with total OPEX largely flat quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a focus on cost management [4][8]. Subscriber and Revenue Metrics - **Total Subscribers**: 117 million, with a year-over-year growth of 18% [4]. - **ARPPU**: RMB 10.7, showing a 10% increase year-over-year [4]. - **Quarterly Subscriber Growth**: Sustained momentum with 3.5 million net adds [4][8]. Market Outlook - The management's outlook for 3Q growth in subscribers and ARPU, along with profitability expansion, will be critical to watch [2][4].

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