Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Polish inflation outlook but indicates a more dovish long-term outlook compared to the National Bank of Poland (NBP) [3]. Core Insights - The final July inflation estimate confirmed a rise from +2.6% year-on-year (yoy) in June to +4.2% yoy in July, primarily driven by higher utility inflation, which increased from -1.6% yoy in June to +10.1% yoy in July due to the partial expiry of energy price shields [2][4]. - Food inflation also rose for the third consecutive month, from +2.5% yoy to +3.2% yoy in July, while core inflation slightly increased from +3.6% yoy to +3.8% yoy [2][4]. - The report forecasts lower-than-expected Polish inflation in the medium term, attributing this to external factors, the recent appreciation of the zloty, and favorable food prices [3]. Summary by Sections Inflation Overview - July inflation rose to +4.2% yoy from +2.6% yoy in June, with a month-on-month (mom) increase of 26.2% (seasonally adjusted, annualized) [2][4]. - Core inflation increased to +3.8% yoy in July from +3.6% yoy in June, with a mom increase of 6.6% (seasonally adjusted, annualized) [4]. Key Figures - Utility inflation surged to +10.1% yoy in July from -1.6% yoy in June, while food inflation rose to +3.2% yoy from +2.5% yoy [4]. - The report highlights significant changes in various inflation components, including a dramatic increase in electricity, gas, and other fuels, which saw a yoy increase of +10.1% [4]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook remains dovish, with expectations of a temporary rebound in inflation due to the expiry of energy price caps, but overall disinflation is anticipated in the second half of 2024 [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. (603338.SS) with an upside potential of 56.2% to a target price of Rmb51.85 [1][3][21]. Core Insights - The investment thesis for Zhejiang Dingli is based on several factors including the accelerating adoption of aerial working platforms (AWPs) in China, a significant under-penetrated market, driven by rising labor costs, a construction worker shortage, and increasing safety awareness [21]. - The company is expected to benefit from a product mix upgrade towards higher-ASP and higher-barrier-to-entry boom lifts, where it has established a substantial technology gap compared to domestic peers [21]. - Despite the challenges posed by US-China trade tensions and anti-dumping duties, Dingli's competitiveness is expected to grow due to product differentiation, particularly in electrified boom technology [21]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Zhejiang Dingli are as follows: Rmb6,312.0 million for 2023, Rmb7,435.9 million for 2024E, Rmb8,421.7 million for 2025E, and Rmb9,548.8 million for 2026E [3][21]. - EBITDA is projected to grow from Rmb1,912.8 million in 2023 to Rmb3,198.1 million by 2026E [3][21]. - The report anticipates a core EPS CAGR of +22% from 2023 to 2025E, with EPS expected to be Rmb3.69 in 2023, increasing to Rmb5.47 by 2026E [3][21]. Market Context - The report highlights a normalization in the rental market, with softened fleet utilization and cautious demand from rental companies, indicating a potential peak in the cycle [1][10]. - The AWP segment in North America saw a growth of 6-7% year-over-year, but there were declines in other regions, particularly Europe [14][16]. - The overall market dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for the construction sector, with uncertainties related to interest rates impacting demand [11][21]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of Rmb81.0 is based on a 16.5X 2024E DACF, reflecting a ~45% discount to its long-term historical average [22]. - The report projects a P/E ratio of 20.2X for 2024E and 16.8X for 2025E, justified by the expected growth in core EPS [22]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that Zhejiang Dingli is one of the largest suppliers of AWPs in China, with significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets [21]. - The company faces competition from both local and international players, but its focus on product differentiation and technology leadership is expected to provide a competitive edge [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both Yue Yuen and Pou Sheng, with a 12-month target price of HK$17.2 for Yue Yuen and HK$1.00 for Pou Sheng [20][23]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen's OEM business has shown sequential order improvement, with management raising full-year order volume growth guidance to low double digits year-over-year, indicating better visibility on second-half orders [3][12]. - Pou Sheng's retail business faces challenges due to weak consumption power in China, but effective margin control and cost optimization strategies are expected to support stability [5][8]. Summary by Sections OEM Business Overview - Order Outlook: Full-year order volume growth guidance raised to low double digits year-over-year from mid-single to high-single digits, with improved visibility for second-half orders [3][12]. - Margin Expectations: Gross profit margin (GPM) in Q2 was 18%, below expectations, but management anticipates stability or a marginal increase in GPM for the second half [14]. - Capacity Expansion: Ongoing capacity expansion in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Cambodia, with plans for a new production base in India [15][16]. Retail Business Overview (Pou Sheng) - Sales Performance: Sales declined by 11% year-over-year in July, with management expecting similar trends to continue in the second half [5][7]. - Margin Management: Despite sales pressure, Pou Sheng achieved a gross profit margin of 34.2% in Q2, with expectations for stabilization in the second half [8][10]. - Cost Control Initiatives: Continuous efforts in optimizing SG&A costs have led to savings, including adjustments in labor and rental costs [5][8]. Earnings Revisions - For Pou Sheng, net income estimates for 2024 have been revised up by 9%, while estimates for 2025-2026 have been increased by 0%-2% due to better gross profit margin improvement and operational efficiency [6][19]. - For Yue Yuen, slight adjustments to gross profit margin forecasts have been made, reflecting recent results and new factory ramp-up [6][17]. Strategic Initiatives - Pou Sheng is enhancing its digitalization efforts and multi-channel strategies to counteract offline sales softness, with a focus on improving operational efficiency in high-tier cities [9][10]. - New brand collaborations and outlet-formatted stores are being pursued to drive growth and improve sales performance [10][11].

14 August 2024 | 6:40AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (tme) Buy Earnings Review: 2024 in-line: Shifting gear to ARPPU over subs, expectation reset but still long runway of growth; Buy TMEUpside: 27.7%12m Price Target: $14.20Price: $11.12 1698.HK12m Price Target: HK$55.10Price: HK$53.50Upside: 3.0% TME delivered in-line 2Q24 results (see our note) yet produced a mixed outlook over 2H24-2025 including: 1) A shift in gear of growth drivers may raise concerns for some investors on multiple contraction, ...

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating on Wanhua Chemical Group (600309 SS) with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb106 0 per share, up from Rmb103 0 [2][5] Core Thesis - The polyurethane cycle is bottoming out, with volume recovery across major players and sequentially improved pricing, although spread recovery was delayed due to high raw material prices [3] - Wanhua Chemical is well-positioned for cyclical recovery, with a leading position in one of the most consolidated commodity chemical supply chains and long-term structural growth opportunities [8] - The company is expected to grow earnings at a +c 20% CAGR over 2023-26E, driven by new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals and normalization of petrochemical earnings [6][8] Financial Estimates - 2024E-26E EPS estimates reduced by 5-9% to reflect weaker-than-expected margins in performance chemicals and new materials segment, higher opex, impairment losses, and finance expenses [2] - 2024E revenue estimate revised to Rmb198 310mn (from Rmb199 624mn), 2025E to Rmb228 460mn (from Rmb231 413mn), and 2026E to Rmb261 360mn (from Rmb262 856mn) [5] - 2024E net profit estimate revised to Rmb16 670mn (from Rmb18 227mn), 2025E to Rmb22 071mn (from Rmb24 199mn), and 2026E to Rmb26 748mn (from Rmb28 149mn) [5] Valuation and Catalysts - Target EV/EBITDA multiple slightly lowered to 10 5x (from 11 0x) to reflect reduced growth forecasts, but valuation base year rolled forward to average 2024E-25E [2] - Potential catalysts include US rate cuts and improving construction activities in Europe in early-mid 2025, which should support recovery in polyurethane demand and drive pricing/margin upside [2] - Strong pipeline of new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals (e g , polyolefin elastomers and flavor and fragrance) scheduled to come on stream in 2H24 [3] Industry Position - Wanhua Chemical is the largest global producer of MDI (30% share of 2023 global capacity) and TDI (25% share of 2022 capacity) [6] - The company accounts for ~80% of global new polyurethane supply over 2023-25E, with continued volume share gains expected [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a soft core producer price inflation, leading to a revised estimate for the core PCE price index increase of 0.14% in July, down from 0.17% previously [2][3]. Core Insights - The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.1% in July, which was below expectations, with core producer prices remaining unchanged. The PPI excluding food and energy was flat, while the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increased by 0.3% [2][3]. - Key components contributing to the PPI included a 0.6% increase in food prices and a 1.9% rise in energy prices. Retail margins saw a decline of 1.3% [2][3]. - The report highlights that the 'old methodology' core PPI for finished goods excluding food and energy increased by 0.1%, while core intermediate producer prices also rose by 0.1% [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPI increased by 0.1% month-over-month for July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.2%. This was below Goldman Sachs' forecast of 0.2% [2]. - PPI excluding food and energy remained unchanged month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4% [2]. - PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3% [2]. Core PCE Price Index - The core PCE price index is now estimated to have risen by 0.14% in July, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 0.17% [3]. - The report suggests that further updates will follow the upcoming CPI report [3]. Key Numbers - PPI for July: +0.1% (month-over-month), +2.2% (year-over-year) [2]. - PPI excluding food and energy: flat (month-over-month), +2.4% (year-over-year) [2]. - PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services: +0.3% (month-over-month), +3.3% (year-over-year) [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on UroGen Pharma (URGN) with a 12-month price target of $22, indicating a potential upside of 51.6% from the current price of $14.51 [42][43]. Core Insights - UroGen Pharma's Jelmyto sales remained flat year-over-year at $21.8 million, slightly below estimates, with challenges related to Medicaid/Medicare discounting impacting revenue guidance for FY24 [2][42]. - The company is focused on completing the rolling NDA submission for UGN-102, with expectations for priority review and potential commercialization in early 2025 [2][42]. - Management expressed confidence in the company's capitalization to reach profitability as it launches UGN-102 and advances its pipeline, despite caution regarding UGN-102's ability to replace TURBT surgery in the near term [2][42]. Financial Summary - UroGen Pharma reported total operating expenses of $184.9 million for 2Q24, slightly above expectations, driven by pre-commercial manufacturing costs for UGN-102 and increased R&D expenses for UGN-103 [2][42]. - The gross margin improved to 90.1%, while R&D expenses increased by 7.1% year-over-year [15][42]. - The company anticipates revenue growth, with projections of $95 million to $102 million for FY24, contingent on the uptake of Jelmyto and the successful launch of UGN-102 [2][42]. Model Adjustments - The report updates its model to reflect actuals from 2Q24 and adjusts near-term operating expense assumptions based on recent trends [2][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for UOL Group with a 12-month target price of S$7.75, slightly adjusted from the previous S$7.84 [2][12][13]. Core Insights - UOL reported a 1H24 core Patmi of S$143 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, but slightly below consensus estimates [2][3]. - Revenue decreased by 7% year-over-year to S$1.3 billion, primarily due to lower residential sales, although this was partially offset by increased investment and hotel revenue [2][3]. - The commercial portfolio showed strong rental reversions, and hotel RevPAR increased by 41% year-over-year, indicating a recovery in the hotel segment [2][7]. Financial Performance - The property development revenue was S$522 million, down 23% year-over-year, attributed to lower progressive recognition from Clavon and the absence of contributions from Avenue South Residence [4]. - The property investment revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to S$271 million, with a stable EBITDA margin of 32.1% [5][7]. - Hotel operations revenue rose by 11% year-over-year to S$378 million, with EBITDA increasing by 24% [7]. Strategic Initiatives - UOL is actively pursuing capital recycling, with the proposed divestment of Stamford Court at 21% above book valuation as part of its long-term portfolio optimization strategy [8][12]. - Upcoming project launches include Meyer Blue in September 2024 and additional sites in 2025 [4][8]. - The company is focusing on asset enhancement initiatives, with several projects expected to complete in the coming years [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that UOL's diversified portfolio across development and investment properties, hotels, and serviced suites positions it well for future growth [12]. - The valuation appears attractive, trading below -1 standard deviation discount to RNAV, indicating potential upside [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Thyssenkrupp Nucera (NCH2.DE) since November 13, 2023, with a 12-month price target of €10.50, indicating an upside potential of 23.9% from the current price of €8.48 [3][14]. Core Insights - Thyssenkrupp Nucera reported its highest quarterly revenue of €235.7 million in 3Q24, driven by ongoing projects in the Chlor-alkali (CA) and Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE) divisions [14][15]. - The order intake for 3Q24 was €271.3 million, a significant increase of 261% quarter-over-quarter, with AWE order intake reaching €220.1 million, 19 times higher than the previous quarter [14][20]. - The total backlog as of 3Q24 amounted to €1.3 billion, reflecting an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter [14][20]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: €837.7 million for 2024E, €935.8 million for 2025E, and €1,065.3 million for 2026E, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][39]. - The company expects to achieve EBITDA breakeven by 2026, with a projected EBITDA margin of approximately 5.5% by 2026E [39][54]. - The AWE division is anticipated to be the largest revenue contributor, with expected revenues rising from approximately €5 million in 2021 to around €504 million in 2024E and €1,900 million by 2030E [28][39]. Market Outlook - Despite strong order intake, the report highlights a slower pace in global awards for large-scale electrolyzers, primarily due to regulatory uncertainties and delays in final investment decisions [19][20]. - The company has a robust project pipeline and a strong balance sheet, supported by IPO proceeds, which will facilitate planned capacity expansions [14][39]. - Thyssenkrupp Nucera's growth strategy includes significant capital expenditures, estimated between €150 million to €250 million from 2023 to 2026E, aimed at supporting AWE growth and enhancing financial stability [54][55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TOTVS SA is Neutral, maintained after updating estimates based on 2Q24 results and macroeconomic assumptions [1][2]. Core Insights - The 12-month price target for TOTVS SA has been raised to R$34.00 per share from R$33.00, reflecting a 15.3% upside from the current price of R$29.50 [1][2]. - The report highlights solid Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) trends in 2Q24, supporting a positive outlook on revenue growth drivers [1][2]. - Margin scalability remains a significant topic of discussion, particularly following a slight margin miss in 2Q24 due to higher direct costs and general administrative expenses [1][2]. Financial Estimates Summary - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards, with 2024 revenue now projected at R$5,282 million, up from R$5,194.5 million [1][2]. - EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at R$1,249.7 million, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [1][2]. - Net income for 2024 is expected to be lower due to higher-than-expected amortization costs, but remains stable for 2025-2026 [1][2]. Valuation Methodology - The price target is based on a blend of discounted cash flow (DCF) and price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple valuations, with a nominal WACC of 13.9% and a terminal growth rate of 6% [1][12]. - The DCF component values the equity at R$33.00 per share, while the P/E-based component values it at R$35.00 per share, leading to the final price target of R$34.00 [1][12].