11 August 2024 | 10:15PM EDT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 B3 (B3SA3.SA): Key takeaways from 2Q24 call — diversification paying off Mitigating a challenging outlook in cash equities with other revenue streams Management discussed the main drivers of revenue growth in 2Q24. The good print in listed derivatives was supported by market volatility and price adjustments in prior periods, which can still benefit this line in coming quarters. Furthermore, BDRs, REITs and ETFs continue to gain traction (13% of t ...

12 August 2024 | 12:01AM EDT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Americas Retail: Specialty Hardlines: Updating our Beauty Trackers for 2Q24; Beauty read throughs In this note, we update our beauty trackers with the latest industry data and present analysis on the beauty/personal care category with additional third party data sources, including HundredX. Additionally, we discuss read throughs from earnings in the Beauty space (ELF, L'Oreal, LVMH, OLPX, and SBH), along with recent commentary from COST, CVS, and ...

9 August 2024 | 1:44AM HKT _ Hua Hong (1347.HK): 12'' new capacity to release in 1Q25; near-term recovery remains gradual Despite near-term margin challenges due to depressed pricing trend and rising depreciation, we maintain our long-term positive view on Hua Hong given local customers' rising demand on its specialty technology in a wide application across consumer electronics, computing, EV, new energy, and industrial. In recent quarters, management see solid demand for consumer electronics products (CIS ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) with a revised target price of HK$70, down from HK$80 [2][4]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's growth estimates have been lowered, with 2024E GMV growth revised to 20% year-on-year from 25%, and revenue growth to 10% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to deliver above-consensus earnings and in-line revenue for 2Q24, driven by strong advertising growth and margin expansion [1][3]. - The report highlights a moderation in advertising revenue growth to 17% year-on-year, down from 22% in 2Q, attributed to softer GMV growth amid a challenging macro environment [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 125,348 million, reflecting a 2% decrease from previous estimates [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2Q24 is expected to be RMB 4.2 billion, with a net margin of 14.1% [3][4]. Market Position and Growth - Kuaishou's GMV growth is anticipated to be 20% in 2024, with a significant focus on improving traffic monetization efforts [6][7]. - The company has consistently beaten consensus estimates on net profit by approximately RMB 500 million to 1 billion over the past ten quarters [3][5]. Advertising and E-commerce - Advertising revenue is projected to grow by 22% year-on-year, while e-commerce commission revenue is expected to see a growth of 21% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report notes a shift in the advertising mix, moving away from live streaming, which is expected to enhance margins [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 22.5 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 14.3 for Kuaishou [2][4]. - The company's CROCI is noted at 45.9%, indicating strong returns on capital employed [2][4].

8 August 2024 | 5:49PM CEST _ Big Oils Assessing Big Oils cash returns in a lower oil price environment; Screening for resilience Brent spot oil prices are down 5% over the past week, and the 2025 Brent futures curve has fallen below the $75 floor of this year's trading range and our commodity analysts' $75-90 range. While we still believe our $80/bbl oil price forecast for 2025 will withstand macro headwinds, given the consistent OPEC+ support of this oil price level over the past two years, we have attemp ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment with specific companies receiving upgrades and downgrades, reflecting a cautious approach towards the market [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant amount of deleveraging across the risk complex, suggesting forced risk transfer among market participants [3]. - There is an expectation of continued economic expansion rather than recession, supported by a recent increase in labor supply and healthy labor market indicators [4]. - The report notes that momentum factors are diverging from consensus secular themes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5]. Company-Specific Summaries TMT Sector - ARM ADRs upgraded to Outperform with a price target of $130 [9]. - BMBL downgraded to Hold with a price target of $6.50 due to poor growth [9]. - HUBS raised to Sector Weight, indicating positive sentiment despite macro headwinds [9]. Healthcare Sector - CRL downgraded to Neutral with a price target of $191 [10]. - NVRO upgraded to Peerperform, reflecting improved outlook [10]. - MCK lowered FY25 revenue growth guidance, indicating potential challenges ahead [10]. Consumer Sector - KVYO upgraded to Overweight with a price target of $33, reflecting strong performance [11]. - MNST missed expectations and flagged a category slowdown, indicating potential headwinds [11]. - BROS downgraded due to a downturn in growth outlook and lower unit development guidance [11]. Industrials/Mats Sector - ASH upgraded to Neutral with a price target of $89, indicating a more favorable outlook [12]. - WLK rated New Outperform with a price target of $170, suggesting strong potential [12]. - TXT downgraded to Equal-Weight with a price target of $95, reflecting a cautious stance [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SMIC is Neutral [2][6][8] Core Insights - SMIC is the largest foundry in China, covering technology from 0.35um to 14nm process nodes, with a diverse application range including smartphones and consumer electronics [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 13% to 15% quarter-over-quarter for Q3 2024, with a gross margin guidance of 18% to 20%, indicating a faster recovery than anticipated [2][6] - Despite positive long-term growth prospects driven by local fabless customers, short-term profit growth is expected to be slow due to industry down-cycle and weak demand from smartphones and consumer electronics, which constitute about 50% of SMIC's revenue [6][7] Revenue and Margin Guidance - Q3 2024 revenue is projected to be between US$2,148 million and US$2,186 million, exceeding previous estimates [2][3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 is expected to improve to 18% to 20%, compared to 13.9% in Q2 2024, which is higher than previous estimates [2][3] Recent Performance - In Q2 2024, SMIC reported revenues of US$1.9 billion, a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 22% increase year-over-year, slightly above guidance [3][5] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 13.9%, significantly higher than the guidance of 9% to 11% and previous estimates [3][5] Financial Metrics - The company’s operating income for Q2 2024 was US$87 million, with a net profit of US$165 million, reflecting a 129% increase quarter-over-quarter [3][5] - Capacity increased to 837.0k wpm by Q2 2024, with utilization rates improving to 85.2% [3][5] Price Target - The 12-month target price for SMIC's H-share is set at HK$21.40, based on a P/E ratio of 26x for 2025 estimates [7][8] - The A-share target price is set at Rmb53.70, reflecting a 273% premium over the H-share target price [7][8]

_ 8 August 2024 | 5:00PM BST | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | GS SUSTAIN: Circular Economy Our Circular Economy Ecosyste ...

7 August 2024 | 3:15AM EDT Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): F4Q24 review: Gross margin weakness offsets better revenue outlook SMCI's F4Q24 EPS missed ($6.25 v. $7.62-$8.42 guidance) as in-line revenue of $5.3 bn (v. $5.1-$5.5 bn guidance) was more than offset by a gross margin miss at 11.3% (v. consensus 14.2%). Weaker than expected gross margins of 11.3% were impacted by SMCI's focus on strategic new design wins with competitive pricing to win market share, customer mix (e.g., emerging hyperscalers) and ...

For the exclusive use of VIPS@RISKMACRO.COM 9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514 What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: US recession fears likely overblown, market volatility, Europe/China economic weakness 7 August 2024 | 4:39PM EDT This week: n US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown n Markets: bad news is bad news n Europe and China: a weaker economic picture, too Transcript US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown We raised our 12m US recession odds by 10pp to 25% and now expect a ...