7 August 2024 | 4:00PM HKT China: Import growth surprised to the upside in July Bottom line: 1. In year-over-year terms, China's export growth moderated in July – exports rose Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | a ...

8 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT _ US Autos & Industrial Tech 2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends Coming out of 2Q24 earnings season, Street estimates on average moved lower for companies more tied to the auto end market (especially EV OEMs and auto suppliers), while estimates were generally revised up for companies with higher exposure to the datacenter market. In this note we show changes in Street consensus estimates and stock moves post earnings, as well as analyze end market demand trends ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Kweichow Moutai with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 [3][4] Core Investment Thesis - Kweichow Moutai is the largest player in the China spirits industry with a 20% value share in 2022 [3] - The company benefits from strong fundamentals, high visibility, and upside from channel reforms [3] - Near-term earnings drivers include wholesale and direct sales growth, product portfolio enhancement, and price hikes [3] - Long-term growth is supported by supply-demand gap, market-driven pricing system, and growth of Moutai-flavor spirits [3] Financial Performance and Estimates - 2Q24 revenue was Rmb37.0bn, up 17% YoY, with net profit of Rmb17.6bn, up 16.1% YoY [35][55] - Moutai Spirits revenue grew 13% YoY to Rmb28.9bn, while Series spirits revenue accelerated to 43% YoY at Rmb7.2bn [35][36] - i-Moutai generated Rmb4.91bn in spirits sales in 2Q24, up 11% YoY, exceeding expectations [55] - The company aims for a 75% dividend payout ratio for 2024-26, implying total shareholder return of Rmb219bn [56] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 is based on a 29.4x 2026E P/E, discounted back to 2024E year-end using a 9.8% CoE [4] - The target P/E includes a 40% premium for Moutai's leading position in China's spirits industry and strong returns profile [4] - Moutai is trading at 21x/18x 2024E/2025E P/Es with a 12% earnings CAGR in 2024E-26E [63] Product and Channel Performance - Wholesale channel sales grew 27% YoY in 2Q24, supported by a price hike in November 2023 [55] - Direct sales grew 6% YoY in 2Q24, contributing 40% of total spirits sales [55][59] - i-Moutai contributed 14% of total sales in 2Q24, with 531k bottles released in July, down 60% YoY [60] Market Trends and Pricing - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb180 for original case and Rmb130 for unpacked bottles in July [78] - Channel inventory stands below 1 month, with shipments expected to increase for the Mid-Autumn Festival [78] - Non-standard SKUs like Jingpin and Zodiac Moutai maintain decent channel profitability [79] Production and Supply - Base spirits production volume declined YoY in 1H24, with Moutai base spirits down 12.3% and Series base spirits down 5.4% [60] - The company has implemented active shipment controls, particularly for Moutai 1935 and Zodiac (500ml) [60]

8 August 2024 | 12:50PM CST _ China Tower Corp. (0788.HK): 1H24 net profit largely in line; first interim dividend announced and a turnaround in FCF; Neutral We see encouraging signs from 1H24 results, including: 1) the announcement of an interim dividend for the first time; 2) a turnaround in free cash flow as previously guided; 3) a net debt decline resulting from cash flow improvements; and 4) net profit is largely in line. Additionally, management provided a more detailed guidance for 2024, including: 1 ...

Will the rebound in Chinese stocks continue? China registered better-than-expected GDP growth figures in the first quarter of 2024. What's your take on that data? Within this context, how do you view stock earnings and valuations? Client Login Published on 11 JUL 2024 Topic: CHINA GDP growth has undoubtedly fared better than expected for China in the first quarter. China met its areas that have been promising include fixed asset investment – driven by faster manufacturing and Client Login sector recovery ha ...

Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International n We first published on women's contributions to the labour force, the opportunity for greater participation and the economic possibilities this provided 25 years ago in research led by our then head of Japan Portfolio Strategy, Kathy Matsui; Womenomics: Buy the Female Economy. Her research helped to shape the policy agenda, and we detail the policy progress in Japan in this report. n One of the areas of greatest progress is in the ...

ISSUE 129 | June 25, 2024 | 5:10 PM EDT "$$$$$P$$$$$ $$$$ $ $$ $ Global Macro Research TOP MIND of GEN AI: TOO MUCH SPEND, TOO LITTLE BENEFIT? Tech giants and beyond are set to spend over $1tn on AI capex in coming years, with so far little to show for it. So, will this large spend ever pay off? MIT's Daron Acemoglu and GS' Jim Covello are skeptical, with Acemoglu seeing only limited US economic upside from AI over the next decade and Covello arguing that the technology isn't designed to solve the complex p ...

Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue? After topping bubble-era highs, Goldman Sachs Research says Japanese stocks are poised to rise even higher. TOPIC: REGIONAL ANALYSIS Goldman Client Login https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/how-india-services-economy-became-a-world-leader.html 5/8 2024/7/8 14:42 How India's services economy became a world leader Goldman Sachs 01 FEB 2024 Japan's Prime Minister: How Japan is promoting a 'new form of capitalism' Japanese Prime Minister Kis ...

ARTICLES 2024/7/12 10:58 How India's services economy became a world leader How India's services economy became a world leader Topic: REGIONAL ANALYSIS India's services exports grew from $53 billion to $338 billion between 2005 and 2023 — almost double the rate of the rest of the world — and have come to form nearly a tenth of the national GDP. Its growth has outstripped that of India's exports of material goods. In their baseline forecast, our economists expect India's services exports to touch 11% of GDP ...

2024/7/8 14:44 Why the US dollar is likely to stay 'stronger for longer' Published on 06 JUN 2024 https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/why-the-dollar-is-likely-to-stay-stronger-longer.html 1/8 Client Login Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Research Dashed lines indicate GS forecasts. G10 ex-US aggregate uses market FX GDP country weights. As of June 4, 2024. The dollar has traded in a strong and tight range through the first five months of the year. Looking forward to the next 12 months, we ...