7 August 2024 | 3:15AM EDT Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): F4Q24 review: Gross margin weakness offsets better revenue outlook SMCI's F4Q24 EPS missed ($6.25 v. $7.62-$8.42 guidance) as in-line revenue of $5.3 bn (v. $5.1-$5.5 bn guidance) was more than offset by a gross margin miss at 11.3% (v. consensus 14.2%). Weaker than expected gross margins of 11.3% were impacted by SMCI's focus on strategic new design wins with competitive pricing to win market share, customer mix (e.g., emerging hyperscalers) and ...

For the exclusive use of VIPS@RISKMACRO.COM 9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514 What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: US recession fears likely overblown, market volatility, Europe/China economic weakness 7 August 2024 | 4:39PM EDT This week: n US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown n Markets: bad news is bad news n Europe and China: a weaker economic picture, too Transcript US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown We raised our 12m US recession odds by 10pp to 25% and now expect a ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for imports with a score of +3, while exports received a score of 0, reflecting weaker performance [2]. Core Insights - China's export value growth was 7.0% year-over-year in July, which was below expectations, while import value growth was 7.2%, exceeding consensus forecasts [3][5]. - The trade surplus decreased to US$84.6 billion in July from US$99 billion in June, indicating a decline in export performance [5][9]. - Import strength was attributed to more working days in July this year compared to last year, contributing to a sequential growth of 4.0% in imports [5][6]. Summary by Category Export Performance - Year-over-year export growth moderated to 7.0% in July from 8.6% in June, with a sequential decline of 2.0% non-annualized [3][5]. - Exports to major trading partners showed mixed results, with exports to the US rising by 8.1% year-over-year and to the EU by 8.0% [6][10]. - Tech-related products, such as chips and automobiles, saw notable growth, with chip exports increasing by 27.7% year-over-year [7][11]. Import Performance - Import growth accelerated significantly to 7.2% year-over-year in July, compared to a decline of 2.3% in June, with a sequential increase of 4.0% [3][5]. - The most significant increases in imports were seen in automobiles, which rose by 17.3% year-over-year, and chips, which increased by 14.9% [8][12]. - Import value rose across major trading partners, with notable improvements from the US and EU [6][11].

8 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT _ US Autos & Industrial Tech 2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends Coming out of 2Q24 earnings season, Street estimates on average moved lower for companies more tied to the auto end market (especially EV OEMs and auto suppliers), while estimates were generally revised up for companies with higher exposure to the datacenter market. In this note we show changes in Street consensus estimates and stock moves post earnings, as well as analyze end market demand trends ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Kweichow Moutai with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 [3][4] Core Investment Thesis - Kweichow Moutai is the largest player in the China spirits industry with a 20% value share in 2022 [3] - The company benefits from strong fundamentals, high visibility, and upside from channel reforms [3] - Near-term earnings drivers include wholesale and direct sales growth, product portfolio enhancement, and price hikes [3] - Long-term growth is supported by supply-demand gap, market-driven pricing system, and growth of Moutai-flavor spirits [3] Financial Performance and Estimates - 2Q24 revenue was Rmb37.0bn, up 17% YoY, with net profit of Rmb17.6bn, up 16.1% YoY [35][55] - Moutai Spirits revenue grew 13% YoY to Rmb28.9bn, while Series spirits revenue accelerated to 43% YoY at Rmb7.2bn [35][36] - i-Moutai generated Rmb4.91bn in spirits sales in 2Q24, up 11% YoY, exceeding expectations [55] - The company aims for a 75% dividend payout ratio for 2024-26, implying total shareholder return of Rmb219bn [56] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 is based on a 29.4x 2026E P/E, discounted back to 2024E year-end using a 9.8% CoE [4] - The target P/E includes a 40% premium for Moutai's leading position in China's spirits industry and strong returns profile [4] - Moutai is trading at 21x/18x 2024E/2025E P/Es with a 12% earnings CAGR in 2024E-26E [63] Product and Channel Performance - Wholesale channel sales grew 27% YoY in 2Q24, supported by a price hike in November 2023 [55] - Direct sales grew 6% YoY in 2Q24, contributing 40% of total spirits sales [55][59] - i-Moutai contributed 14% of total sales in 2Q24, with 531k bottles released in July, down 60% YoY [60] Market Trends and Pricing - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb180 for original case and Rmb130 for unpacked bottles in July [78] - Channel inventory stands below 1 month, with shipments expected to increase for the Mid-Autumn Festival [78] - Non-standard SKUs like Jingpin and Zodiac Moutai maintain decent channel profitability [79] Production and Supply - Base spirits production volume declined YoY in 1H24, with Moutai base spirits down 12.3% and Series base spirits down 5.4% [60] - The company has implemented active shipment controls, particularly for Moutai 1935 and Zodiac (500ml) [60]

8 August 2024 | 12:50PM CST _ China Tower Corp. (0788.HK): 1H24 net profit largely in line; first interim dividend announced and a turnaround in FCF; Neutral We see encouraging signs from 1H24 results, including: 1) the announcement of an interim dividend for the first time; 2) a turnaround in free cash flow as previously guided; 3) a net debt decline resulting from cash flow improvements; and 4) net profit is largely in line. Additionally, management provided a more detailed guidance for 2024, including: 1 ...

Will the rebound in Chinese stocks continue? China registered better-than-expected GDP growth figures in the first quarter of 2024. What's your take on that data? Within this context, how do you view stock earnings and valuations? Client Login Published on 11 JUL 2024 Topic: CHINA GDP growth has undoubtedly fared better than expected for China in the first quarter. China met its areas that have been promising include fixed asset investment – driven by faster manufacturing and Client Login sector recovery ha ...

Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International n We first published on women's contributions to the labour force, the opportunity for greater participation and the economic possibilities this provided 25 years ago in research led by our then head of Japan Portfolio Strategy, Kathy Matsui; Womenomics: Buy the Female Economy. Her research helped to shape the policy agenda, and we detail the policy progress in Japan in this report. n One of the areas of greatest progress is in the ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the AI industry but discusses varying perspectives on the economic potential and returns of generative AI technology [3][7]. Core Insights - The generative AI sector is projected to see over $1 trillion in capital expenditures, yet the immediate benefits remain limited, with skepticism from experts regarding the technology's ability to deliver substantial economic returns in the near term [3][7]. - Daron Acemoglu from MIT forecasts only a 0.5% increase in US productivity and a 0.9% increase in GDP over the next decade due to AI, suggesting that only a small fraction of tasks will be cost-effective to automate [7][10]. - In contrast, Goldman Sachs economists, including Joseph Briggs, predict a more optimistic scenario where generative AI could automate 25% of work tasks, leading to a 9% increase in productivity and a 6.1% increase in GDP over the same period [7][18]. Summary by Sections AI Spending and Economic Impact - Companies are expected to invest around $1 trillion in AI infrastructure, including data centers and chips, but the current returns are minimal, primarily limited to efficiency gains [3][7]. - Experts express concerns about whether the high costs of AI technology can be justified, with some arguing that it is not designed to solve complex problems effectively [3][7]. Expert Opinions - Daron Acemoglu is skeptical about the transformative potential of AI, suggesting that significant advancements will not occur within the next decade and that the technology will primarily enhance existing processes rather than create new opportunities [7][10]. - Conversely, Goldman Sachs analysts remain optimistic, believing that the current capital expenditure cycle is more promising than previous ones, with potential for substantial long-term returns [3][7]. Constraints on Growth - The report highlights potential constraints on AI growth, particularly shortages in critical components like chips and power supply, which could hinder the technology's development and deployment [3][8]. - Analysts warn that the aging US power grid may not be prepared for the increased demand driven by AI technologies, leading to potential power shortages [8][18]. Market Implications - Despite skepticism about AI's fundamental story, there is an expectation that the AI theme will continue to attract investment, with infrastructure providers benefiting in the interim [8][18]. - The report suggests that only under the most favorable conditions, where AI significantly boosts growth without raising inflation, would long-term returns for the S&P 500 be above average [8][18].

Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue? After topping bubble-era highs, Goldman Sachs Research says Japanese stocks are poised to rise even higher. TOPIC: REGIONAL ANALYSIS Goldman Client Login https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/how-india-services-economy-became-a-world-leader.html 5/8 2024/7/8 14:42 How India's services economy became a world leader Goldman Sachs 01 FEB 2024 Japan's Prime Minister: How Japan is promoting a 'new form of capitalism' Japanese Prime Minister Kis ...