9 August 2024 | 8:07PM HKT China: Q2 2024 BOP data suggest faster capital outflows Bottom line: China's preliminary Balance of Payments (BOP) data showed faster capital outflows in Q2 2024 on the back of more outflows through the direct investment channel and foreigners' selling of RMB assets as well. Current account surplus widened in Q2 from Q1 due entirely to a higher goods trade surplus, and FX reserves decreased in Q2. Main points: 1.The preliminary BOP data show three main categories of China's intern ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for MXCN with a target price of 67, suggesting a potential upside of 19% [30] - The CSI300 has a target price of 4000, indicating a potential upside of 20% [30] Core Insights - MXCN gained 2% while A-shares experienced volatility, with export growth missing expectations at 7.0% year-on-year, while import growth was at 7.2% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights that the State Council has released policies to boost services consumption and that Shenzhen has initiated a program to acquire unsold houses for affordable housing [2][20] - The report notes that the earnings growth forecast for 2024 is 12% for MXCN and 14% for CSI300, with respective P/E ratios of 8.8x and 10.9x [2][30] Performance Summary - MXCN and CSI300 forward P/E ratios are 8.8x and 10.9x, respectively, with expected EPS growth of 12% and 15% for 2024 and 2025 [2] - The report indicates that sectors such as Industrials and Energy have been revised up the most, while Materials and Momentum lagged behind [2] Earnings and Valuations - The report shows that 13% of all China-listed companies have reported earnings for 1H24, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [11] - The earnings growth for various sectors varies, with Consumer Discretionary at 19% and Energy at -11% [11] Policy Summary - The report outlines recent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including the PBOC's supportive monetary policy stance and the allocation of RMB 300 billion (approximately USD 41 billion) in special treasury bonds [20] - It also mentions the relaxation of home-buying requirements in major cities to stimulate the housing market [20] Market Outlook - The report predicts that small caps are likely to underperform large caps modestly, while H shares are expected to outperform A shares over the next three months [24] - The overall economic forecast for China indicates a real GDP growth of 4.9% for 2024, down from 5.2% in 2023 [32]

China's Manufacturing Capacity - Seven global manufacturing industries represent 22% of China's GDP growth[2] - Over 50% of capacity in five sectors operates at zero or negative cash margins[2] - Solar and lithium batteries are closest to reaching a supply/demand inflection point, while electric vehicles and power semiconductors are the furthest[2] Investment Ratings and Relationships - Goldman Sachs has investment ratings on 2,925 equity securities as of July 1, 2024[8] - 48% of ratings are Buy, 35% are Hold, and 17% are Sell[10] - 64% of Buy-rated companies have investment banking relationships with Goldman Sachs, compared to 57% for Hold and 41% for Sell[10] Research and Disclosures - Goldman Sachs' Quantum database provides detailed financial statement histories and forecasts for in-depth analysis[7] - Analysts certify that their views are personal and not influenced by compensation[4] - Research reports are based on public information and are subject to change without prior notification[17]

12 August 2024 | 1:24PM KST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS): MLCC peers' CY2Q24 results read-across; solid MLCC outlook supporting our positive view In this note, we provide read-across of CY2Q24 results of 4 MLCC peers (Murata, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo, and TDK) to our covered Korean MLCC player, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO). We believe the read-across from the peers' results were generally positive due to: 1) most of the peers guiding MLCC revenue to sequentially grow ...

12 August 2024 | 9:28AM GST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Jahez International (9526.SE): 1H24: Revenue growth slightly below GSe but new verticals weigh on margins Jahez reported 1H24 results with revenue of SR1.02bn (+22% yoy), 2% below GSe. 1H24 net income came in at SR43mn down 26% yoy, 31% below GSe. There are limited number of consensus estimates. Revenue growth of 22% yoy was driven by 30% increase in total number of orders (to 50.1mn), and higher AOV, which increased to SR61.5 from SR60.4 in 1H23. ...

12 August 2024 | 9:49AM GST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Parkin Co. (PARKIN.DU): 2Q24 First Take Parkin reported 2Q24 results on August 12th pre-market open. Revenues for 2Q24 came in at AED206mn, +3%/-2% vs. GSe/Eikon consensus, up +12% yoy driven by higher revenues from public parking (+7% yoy), developer parking (+7% yoy), seasonal permits (+15% yoy) and fines (+27% yoy). EBITDA of AED134mn came ahead of our estimates and consensus, reflecting a c.65% margin for the quarter driven by revenue growth a ...

Harbour Energy Analysis - **Investment Rating**: Sell rating maintained for Harbour Energy due to its high exposure to European spot gas prices, negatively impacting its earnings profile in 2025-26E [5] - **Core Thesis**: Harbour Energy offers the lowest cash return to shareholders at 6.9% in 2024/25E compared to the EU E&P sector average of 10.9%/12.7% [2] - **Valuation**: The company trades in line with its peers in the EU E&P sector on 2025E EV/DACF, but better combinations of shareholder return, growth, and valuation are found elsewhere in the sector [3] Copper Industry Update - **Escondida Mine Labor Negotiations**: Sindicato No.1 (2.4k operators) at Escondida, the largest single mine union in Chile, has not agreed to initial terms presented by BHP, with government mediation underway [6] - **Potential Cost Impact**: Negotiating an improvement on the existing contract could cost approximately $110mn in cash bonuses, adding USc8/lb to 2H'24e Escondida unit costs [6] Beverages Industry Trends - **Soft Drinks Performance**: Nielsen Carbonates data for the 4 weeks to 14 July shows flat sales development yoy in Western Europe, with the UK down 10.8%, France -8.6%, and Spain -6.9% [6] - **Promotional Activity**: Promotional activity ramped up across all tracked markets, with Germany showing +1.9% volume growth likely due to the UEFA Eurocup [6] UK Macroeconomic Outlook - **Inflation Forecast**: July inflation is expected to see services inflation decelerate to 5.48%, down from 5.74% in June, with core inflation decelerating to 3.38% [8] - **Labour Market**: The June labour market report is expected to show the 3m average unemployment rate edge up to 4.5%, above the BoE's forecast of 4.4% [8] Global Economics Insights - **Neutral Real Rate (r*)**: The neutral real rate is an important anchor for monetary policy and financial markets, with market-based estimates suggesting high returns from macroeconomic stabilization [8] - **China PBOC Policy**: The PBOC maintained an easing bias in its 2Q monetary policy report, with a forecast for a 25bp RRR cut in 3Q and a 10bp policy rate cut in 4Q [8] FX Market Dynamics - **Yen Carry Trade Unwind**: The CFTC weekly positioning report suggests net shorts amongst non-commercial investors have fallen to just $1bn from a peak net short of nearly $15bn, indicating c.90% of the carry trade unwind is done [8]

12 August 2024 | 1:48PM AEST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Helia Group (HLI.AX): 1H24 results preview — focus on claims environment and capital management; Neutral Results date Tuesday, 20 August 2024 Goldman Sachs forecasts Cash earnings: 1H24E underlying cash earnings down -25% pcp to A$102.8 mn. DPS: Interim ordinary DPS of A15¢. What we expect n Request for Proposal (RFP): On 19-Jun, HLI was advised by CBA (for a second time in three years) that it will issue an RFP relating to its Lenders Mortgage I ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cellnex, indicating a positive outlook for the company [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for a strike at Escondida, the largest copper mine in Chile, which could impact copper supply and prices. Negotiations with Sindicato No.1 are ongoing, and historical patterns suggest a likelihood of industrial action [2]. - Cellnex's sale of its Austrian asset for €803 million is viewed positively, as it supports the company's deleveraging efforts and enhances the growth outlook for its remaining assets [2]. - UK inflation is expected to decelerate, with services inflation projected at 5.48% for July, slightly below the Bank of England's forecast [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining an easing bias to support economic growth, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio in Q3 [5]. - The report notes a rebound in the Japanese equity market, with a revised 12-month target for TOPIX set at 2,900, reflecting a constructive long-term outlook despite recent corrections [9]. - In the China Internet sector, Tencent and Alibaba are expected to report in-line results, with Tencent projected to see a 33% year-on-year growth in adjusted operating profit [10]. Summary by Sections Copper Industry - The potential strike at Escondida could add USc8/lb to unit costs in the second half of 2024, with a cash bonus of approximately $110 million being a significant factor in negotiations [2]. Cellnex - The sale of the Austrian asset for €803 million implies a valuation of 20x 2025E EV/EBITDAaL, which is below recent transaction multiples but supports Cellnex's deleveraging path and enhances organic revenue growth [2]. UK Macro - July inflation is expected to show a deceleration in services inflation to 5.48%, with core inflation projected at 3.38% [4]. - The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge up to 4.5% in the June labour market report [4]. Global Economics - The report discusses cross-country differences in the neutral real rate (r*), emphasizing the benefits of macroeconomic stabilization for lowering interest rates [4]. China Macro - The PBOC's supportive stance includes a forecast for a 25 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio in Q3 and a 10 basis point policy rate cut in Q4 [5]. US Equities - The S&P 500 ended flat after a recovery from a previous sell-off, with small-cap and tech stocks underperforming [7]. Japan Strategy - The TOPIX index has rebounded by 11% from recent lows, with a revised year-end target reflecting the impact of recent market corrections [9]. China Internet - Tencent is expected to report a 33% year-on-year growth in adjusted operating profit, while Alibaba's EBITA is forecasted to decline by 11% year-on-year [10]. GCC TMT - The GCC TMT sector shows attractive free cash flow outlooks and dividend potential, with growth expected in both consumer and B2B segments [11].

12 August 2024 | 8:59AM CEST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 GS Utilities Daily: 40% of Biden's IRA top manufacturing projects on hold // Ørsted partnership to develop 1GW battery storage across US Alberto Gandolfi +39(02)8022-0157 | alberto.gandolfi@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch Ajay Patel +44(20)7552-1168 | ajay.patel@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Mafalda Pombeiro +44(20)7552-9425 | mafalda.pombeiro@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Jojo Kwofie +44(20)7774-6526 | jojo.kwofie@gs ...