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好未来20241024
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-25 08:44
Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Industry**: Tele-Education Group operates in the online education sector, focusing on providing hardware and software solutions for learning. 2. **Company**: Tele-Education Group is the subject of the conference call, discussing their financial performance and strategic direction. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Parental and Educational Philosophies**: There is a growing trend among new generations of parents to focus on their children's holistic development, beyond academic performance [1]. 2. **Product Upgrades**: The company upgraded its hardware and software, enhancing the content library and adding smart features to improve the online learning experience [2]. 3. **Financial Growth**: The company reported net revenues of $619.4 million, representing year-over-year increases of 50.4% in U.S. dollars and 50.8% in RMB [2]. 4. **AI Integration**: The company is investing in AI, particularly in the learning device sector, aiming to enhance user learning experiences [8]. 5. **Strategic Priorities**: Product quality and user experience are key strategic priorities for the company [9]. Other Important Content 1. **New Curriculum Standards**: The company's products align with new curriculum standards, covering primary to high school levels [4]. 2. **Xiaosi 2.0**: The newly launched Xiaosi 2.0 offers AI features, making it a more intelligent and practical learning companion [4]. 3. **Investment Plans**: The company has invested in compute infrastructure for AI development [8]. 4. **Shares.com**: Shares.com is a strategic priority for the company, with investments in online enrichment product capabilities and operational strategies [9].
德意志银行:金属与矿业_未来一周(铜股票、Hydro、淡水河谷、英美资源集团)。中国宏观,估值
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-24 10:13
Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Global Metals & Mining Metals & Mining Industry Metals & Mining Date 20 October 2024 Periodical Week ahead (copper equities, Hydro, Vale, Anglo). China macro. Valuations Reporting next week (earnings snapshot & calendar Fig 1-2) A number of global copper companies report next week, including FCX, Teck, BOL andFM, alongside results from Vale and Hydro and production from Anglo. For FCX (Hold) the focus will be on updated guidance for the greenfield Manyar smelter in In ...
人形机器人系列35期-未来已至-产业化蓄势待发
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-23 07:46
Key Takeaways Industry and Company Involved * **Industry**: Robotics, specifically humanoid robots * **Companies**: Tesla, Hamanako, North Star Technology, Double Lin Technology, etc. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: The robotics sector has been lackluster in October, with individual stocks like North Star Technology and Double Lin Technology performing well, but most stocks showing normal downward trends. The robotics sector remains one of the few areas in the tech sector that has not seen significant growth [1][2]. 2. **Tesla's Humanoid Robot**: Tesla showcased its humanoid robot at a press conference on October 11, demonstrating actions like dancing, playing rock-paper-scissors, and picking up gifts. Most of these actions were achieved through teleoperation, while the robot's ability to navigate through a crowd and play cards showed its hardware maturity and nearing mass production levels. The robot is expected to be priced between $20,000 and $30,000, but it is unlikely to achieve significant job displacement in the short term [3]. 3. **Supply Chain Developments**: Hamanako announced a significant expansion plan, investing approximately 27.5 billion yen (equivalent to 1 billion yuan) from 2024 to 2026. This includes a 106 billion yen investment in a domestic factory in Japan to produce harmonic drives for humanoid robots, expected to start production in March 2026. North Star Technology plans to invest 1.85 billion yuan in Jiangsu Kunshan for the production and research and development of planetary ball screw, with the earliest domestic factory expected to start production in 2026 [4]. 4. **Catalysts for the Next Few Quarters**: Three main catalysts are expected in the next few quarters: Tesla's third-quarter earnings release, the launch of the third-generation product before the end of the year, and the completion of the finalization and small-scale production before the end of the year, with an expected small-scale production of several thousand units next year and a larger-scale production in 2026 [5]. 5. **Evolution of the Third-Generation Humanoid Robot**: The third-generation humanoid robot is expected to have significant improvements in the dexterous hand, with the degree of freedom increasing from 11 to 22, making the hand function almost fully bionic. Other improvements include material and structure optimization, such as the use of carbon fiber to improve efficiency and extend battery life. The integration design capability will also be greatly improved, with higher modularization of single-joint modules, increasing the technical threshold. Additional transmission drives and sensors, such as hollow micro-motors, brushless geared slot DC motors, and miniature screws, will be added to the neck, waist, and feet, significantly increasing hardware demand. A large number of force sensors will also be configured, but their actual application is still controversial [6]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Sensor Applications in Robotics**: Currently, sensor suppliers are mainly foreign companies, but the future direction of robot iteration may involve four aspects: increased degrees of freedom, material and structure optimization, improved integration design capability, and changes in sensor demand and potential domestic production capabilities [7]. 2. **Current Development Trend of Robotics Sector**: The robotics sector is relatively underperforming in the tech sector, but it has high growth potential. The market has been dispersed in the past two years, especially last year, where the market would give a valuation to listed companies involved in the robotics sector or expressing intentions. However, with the establishment of the supply chain and the approaching mass production node, the market focus is shifting from a发散式思维 to focusing on companies that can truly participate in Tesla's supply chain [8]. 3. **Companies to Watch in Tesla's Supply Chain**: Companies worth focusing on in Tesla's supply chain include Sanyo拓普, Zhongjian Technology, Clorox, Beida Technology, Inner Harmonic, Wu Xinnong, Wu Zhou New City, and Midea Electric Appliances. These companies have high certainty in the component field and are expected to participate in the first batch of定点 projects [9]. 4. **Development of Other Domestic Companies**: In the component field, companies like Lushui Harmonic, which is one of the three companies in the world that can directly communicate with Tesla, may exceed expectations despite low market expectations. In the reducer field, Zhongdali De is selected as a partner by Zhiyuan. In the motor field, there are Zhaowei Electromechanical and Weichuang Sensor. Domestic companies like Helishi Sensing, Donghua, and Anpenglong are also worth paying attention to [10]. 5. **Outlook for Future Development**: Focus on the finalization and mass production of the third-generation product at the end of the year and Tesla's related statements. Domestic robotics companies like Yushu and Zhiyuan are also gradually choosing their supply chains. For example, in the inclined reducer field, it is hard to avoid Lushui, while Zhiyuan chooses Zhongdali De. Therefore, each target has its unique logic. Overall, the core portfolio of targets is based on the selection of Tesla and overseas supply chain participation, and these targets will have high certainty once they enter the first batch of定点 projects [11].
人形机器人系列35期: 未来已至,产业化蓄势待发
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-23 05:25
各位投资者大家早上好那么我是广发证券机器行业的分析师孙宏洋那么这场会议呢这个也给大家更新一下关于整个这个机器人板块啊这个最近的一些变化和我们对于整个量产的一些节奏和预期 嗯应该说整个机器人板块呢其实在这个十月份的表现啊其实不是一个板块性的这个行情啊更多的呢就是个股上的一些机会啊比如说北特啊双菱这些公司可能走的会比较强但是呢大部分标的其实在这个十月份啊他的走势呢是是是这种上上下下啊振动的一个这个走势而且呢也是可能整个科技板块里面啊仅有的还没怎么长一个方向了啊 那么昨天的可能市场也在传言啊就是有一些这个量产的信息出来可能对26年的一个展望也会比较乐观一点呃那么我们就给大家梳理一下整个最近这个九月份十月份啊机器人板块到底发生了哪些变化然后呢产业链啊这个为了量产都做了哪些准备 应该说这个最近的一个比较重磅的一个活动大家也看到了就是在10月11号特斯拉举办的这个WeRobot发布会现场展示了这个人形机器人Robotaxi这些产品 但是可能很多投资者之前对这个发布会的预期是比较高的尤其是关注机器人这块可能会预期有三代产品的发布但是现在是现场没有发布所以大家可能有一些投资者会认为这个发布会比较低预期了我们首先要明确一点就是 ...
外资持续抄底A股,未来加仓空间有多大
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-22 16:28
so so you Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Chinese Debate. I am Li Xun from Guangda Securities Investment Park. Today's market continues to rebound. The number of shares that have risen is actually similar to yesterday. Today we can see that more of such a board performance is more strong. Today, only three boards have fallen, 28 boards are in the state of rising. Instead, the falling boards are all from some of the technology, such as computers and electronics. Today, it is relatively weak, including t ...
红利-科技成长是未来主线吗
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-22 06:37
红利+科技成长是未来主线吗 20241021 摘要 • 煤炭行业供需关系紧张,预计未来价格将继续上涨。9 月份原煤产量同比 增长 4.4%,但供给端仍相对缩减。下游火电需求旺盛,北方供暖季临近, 预计 10 月下旬至 11 月初电厂将增加煤炭库存,推动价格波动。 • 近期市场表现较好,主要得益于 LPR(贷款市场报价利率)的调整。本次 不同期限贷款利率均降 25 个基点,这是自 2019 年以来最大的一次调降, 旨在拉动内需,促进消费增长。 • 政府应采取大规模的政策干预,而不是逐步释放政策,以有效改变市场信 心。日本经验表明,当居民信心不足时,大规模政策干预更能迅速扭转市 场预期和信心。 • 今年以来,中国政府陆续出台了一系列货币和财政政策,尤其是在 9 月底 的一些重大举措,显示出央行在提供流动性方面力度很大。但更关键的是 财政政策的具体落实情况,其将直接影响到消费者购买力等指标。 • 近期中国债券市场经历了一段快速回调,但总体上仍保持震荡企稳态势。 信用债配置基金业绩反弹明显,主要得益于银行理财资金的大量配置以及 保险机构因考核要求而不得不配置大量债券。 • 当前市场环境下,权益类资产仍然具有较高吸引力 ...
红利+科技成长是未来主线吗
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-21 17:18
大家好 欢迎来到国联基金直播间今天是周一 在交易时间我再次邀请到了我们的经理经理大家也非常熟悉的经理老师来到咱们直播间和我们一起聊一聊当下的股票市场的一个投资的一个思考那么欣宇跟咱们直播间的小伙伴打声招呼吧哈喽 直播间的小伙伴 大家下午好 非常开心很多每周一跟上在这个Good luck这样的一个固定节目跟大家一起去随便的聊一聊市场聊一聊我们最近对市场关注的热点以及我们未来如果要去布局市场的话应该关注哪些最重要的一些关键点好在这个直播之前呢也是暂时跟大家说哈因为最近呢大家也发现了这个周末过完之后呢我们至少北方这边啊变得降温了啊大家也都穿上了 深秋或者说冬天的衣服我看馨云也穿的比较厚在这里也是大家先要保重好身体记得多迁一些衣服我们有了好的身体才能投资说的好和不好那咱们就开始今天的内容咱们刚一开始开场直播间有个小伙伴就问到一看到馨云老师就想到了煤炭行业的一个情况因为煤炭我看这两天 它整体的表现一般但是也还好因为至少前一阵子煤炭已经涨了一波了要不信宇先给大家简单说一下煤炭的一些情况我先跟大家更新一下煤炭的基本面的情况大家可以看到9月份的整个的远微的产量总比是增加了4.4%其实确实我们看到了整个虽然我们之前说煤炭整个行 ...
下注未来-当前时点如何看待科技股
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-21 06:45
下注未来 - 当前时点如何看待科技股 20241020 摘要 • 电子行业投资机会主要集中在半导体板块,尤其是具备核心技术和高壁垒 的公司,如中芯国际、北方华创以及长电科技等。这些公司在设备订单方 面表现出较强的吸引力,无论是今年的订单情况还是对明年的预期,都比 年初或年中的预期更加明确和乐观。 • 存储、成熟制程和先进制程三个细分领域中,存储订单占比较大,预计明 年将有更多增量;成熟制程尽管今年需求端存在担忧,但明年的补充性订 单预期较好;先进制程发展迅速,相关核心设备领域值得深入挖掘。 • IT 行业目前处于触底阶段,价格在北上广深等地已处于底部区间,并且 下探空间有限。随着应用端需求增加,大趋势方向明确,预计明年上半年 可能出现明显拐点。 • 高功率机柜及大功率机房(定义为 30 兆瓦以上)市场稀缺且供不应求, 目前整体供应量仅占市场 20%不到,因此价格较高。这类项目具有先发优 势,因为扩建过程中至少需要 1~2 年的时间空缺。 • 近年来,互联网头部企业对第三方 IT 服务态度发生了显著变化,从 2020-2021 年期间强烈压价,到现在更加注重供应商财务健康、扩产能力 以及持续服务能力。这种转变源 ...
AFI谈股论金-中国资产大反转-路径-逻辑与未来
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-21 06:45
AFI 谈股论金:中国资产大反转——路径、逻辑与未来 20241019 摘要 • 中国近期出台的宽松政策旨在应对经济挑战,不再依赖房地产市场刺激, 而是转向股市,希望通过股市上涨恢复市场信心和激发消费。 • 政府希望通过股市上涨创造财富效应,刺激消费,并通过适度通胀促进消 费和生产。 • 中国面临内需不足和外贸动力减弱的双重挑战,需要依靠内需拉动经济增 长,恢复市场信心和激发消费成为关键。 • 当前值得关注的股票类型包括消费类股票、科技创新类股票、金融类股票 和基础设施建设相关股票。 • 评估当前市场刺激政策的有效性需要从多个角度分析,包括观察中国股市 走势、政策力度和创新性等。 • 本次刺激政策与以往最大的不同在于其创新性和力度,例如央行推出的 "以券换券"操作,以及低息贷款鼓励银行向企业放贷。 Q&A 中国近期出台了一系列宽松政策,能否详细解释这些政策的逻辑是什么? 中国近期出台的宽松政策主要是为了应对当前经济面临的挑战。过去,中国的刺 激政策往往依赖房地产市场,通过提升房价来创造财富效应。然而,目前房地产 市场已经出现过度供给和价格泡沫,难以再作为有效的刺激手段。因此,政府转 向股市,希望通过股市上涨来 ...
花旗:快手_2024 年第三季度业绩有望符合预期;未来将加强内容电商业务
未来财务人研究院· 2024-10-21 00:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating on Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price of HK$67, implying a 41 2% expected share price return [9][24] Core Views - Kuaishou is expected to report 3Q24 results in line with consensus, with revenue growth of 11 2% YoY to RMB31 1bn and adjusted earnings of RMB3 98bn [4][5] - Ecommerce GMV growth is projected at 15% YoY in 3Q24, driving 17% YoY growth in both ecommerce commission and ecommerce ads revenue [4][6] - Non-ecommerce ads momentum is expected to sustain into 2H24, supported by rapidly growing verticals like short plays [4][6] - Kuaishou is focusing on strengthening KOL live streaming ecommerce and content to compete during the Double 11 campaign [4][16] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow 12 1% YoY in 2024E to RMB127 2bn, with ecommerce and ads driving growth [13][17] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 19 6% in 2024E, up from 15 3% in 2023 [13][17] - Core EPS is forecasted to grow 72 8% YoY in 2024E to RMB3 995, with further growth of 28 5% in 2025E [8][17] Strategic Focus - Kuaishou's ecommerce strategy includes strengthening top KOLs, enhancing content (short video, live streaming, text & graphics), improving customer shopping protection, and advancing shelf-based ecommerce [16] - The company is allocating more resources to top KOLs and content to strengthen its live streaming ecommerce edge during the Double 11 campaign [6][16] Valuation - The target price of HK$67 is based on a 12x 2025E adjusted EPS of HK$5 6, close to 1 standard deviation below its historical PE average [24] - The valuation implies a ~0 4x PEG ratio to the 2024-26E earnings CAGR of 26%, reflecting Kuaishou's No 2 position in the short video market and potential competition from Weixin Video Accounts [24]