更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 21 June 2024 | 12:02AM HKT Hon Hai (2317.TW): AI to support smartphone demand; AI servers to ramp up ahead; TP up to NT$257; Buy We are positive on Hon Hai and raise our target price to NT$257 (vs. previously at Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | NT$227) to reflect higher iPhone shipment post Apple WWDC event, with highlights allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. of AI features (report by Michael Ng) helping to drive the replacement cycle. Despite Verena Jeng rising competi ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 摘要 人形机器人轴承市场规模快速增长： 随着人形机器人产业的快速发展,预计到 2030 · 年全球人形机器人用轴承市场规模将达到 18.1 亿元人民币,年复合增长率为 76.8%, 乐观情况下甚至可达 30.8 亿元人民币,年复合增长率约为 89%。 高端轴承市场竞争激烈:高端轴承市场主要被全球八大轴承企业垄断,市占率高达 70%。 中国企业如五洲新春、人本股份、光阳股份等正在不断突破核心技术,实现制造能力并 部分达成批量供货,但国产化率仍然较低。 • 中国企业在高端交叉滚子轴承制造方面取得进展:中国厂商如仁德股份具备小批量供 货能力,国际军工也拥有相关技术与产品。在小接触角度领域,中国已有多家成熟供应 商,但整体而言,高端市场仍需进一步突破。 无框力矩电机和空心杯电机在人形机器人中应用广泛:无框力矩电机因体积小、响应 迅捷、质量轻且扭矩高等优点,非常符合人形机器人的需求,预计到2030年将占据人 形机器人价值量的16%。空心杯电机以其突出的性能优势被广泛应用于手部关节,中国 企业如鸣志电气正在逐步缩小技术差距,并凭借价格优势提升市占率。 gbettp ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust growth outlook for the Permian Basin, with production growth expected to slow down but remain strong, suggesting a positive investment sentiment towards the sector [2][13][22]. Core Insights - US oil production exceeded expectations in the previous year, with the Permian Basin accounting for 60% of this growth. However, the rig count has recently declined, raising concerns about future supply [7][8]. - Production growth in the Permian is projected to decrease from 520 kb/d in 2023 to 270 kb/d by 2026, primarily due to geological constraints and a declining rig count [2][13]. - Despite the slowdown, efficiency gains and a favorable WTI price forecast above breakeven levels are expected to sustain robust production levels [3][20]. Summary by Sections Production Growth Forecast - The report forecasts that annual average production growth in the Permian will slow from 520 kb/d in 2023 to 340 kb/d in 2024 and further to 270 kb/d in 2026, driven by geological constraints and a stable rig count [2][13][22]. - The geological quality of the Permian Basin is deteriorating, limiting the potential for new well productivity improvements [15][18]. Rig Count and Efficiency - The Permian rig count has decreased by nearly 15% from its peak in April of the previous year and is expected to remain around 300 by the end of 2026 [15][18]. - Efficiency improvements in drilling and completion are anticipated to enhance the production from declining wells, with a projected 5% growth rate in declining wells production over the next three years [18][20]. Price Sensitivity and Breakeven Analysis - The WTI price forecast for 2024/2025 is set at $79/76 per barrel, which is above the estimated breakeven price of $74/bbl for the Permian, indicating a favorable economic environment for producers [20][21]. - A 10% decline in WTI prices is estimated to result in a modest 1.3% drop in Permian production, but a more significant impact if prices fall below $50/bbl [20][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The report suggests that while Permian production growth will slow, it will still contribute significantly to US crude supply, driving 60% of non-OPEC production growth [24][25]. - The balance of robust growth in the short term and limited upside in the long term is expected to support crude price stability [25].

Industry Overview - Global eCommerce sales are expected to grow at a +7% CAGR between 2023 and 2028, reaching $5.0tn by 2028, up from $3.6tn in 2023 [7][8] - China and the US are the largest regions, expected to drive 2/3 of global eCommerce growth, with smaller regions like India (+19%) and ASEAN (+9%) growing faster [8] - eCommerce penetration is projected to increase from 30% in 2023 to 34% in 2028, with an average annual increase of +80bps/yr [8] Regional Insights United States - US eCommerce sales are forecasted to grow at a +7% CAGR through 2028, reaching $1.6tn, with online penetration rising to 32% [27] - Discretionary categories are under pressure, with consumers shifting spending towards essentials, benefiting companies like Amazon [32][33] China - China's eCommerce sales are expected to grow by 8% in 2024, driven by promotional events, better shopping experiences, and leading fulfillment speeds [48] - Platforms like Alibaba, JD, and PDD are focusing on price competitiveness and expanding SKU selections to cater to value-conscious consumers [51] ASEAN - ASEAN eCommerce GMV is expected to grow +16% YoY in 2024, driven by platform investments and the rise of livestream and short-form video shopping formats [68] - Indonesia is the largest market in ASEAN, accounting for 47% of the region's eCommerce TAM [68] Latin America - LatAm eCommerce is expected to grow at a +10% CAGR through 2026, with online penetration reaching 27% by 2026 [79] - Cross-border competition is intensifying, with Temu and TikTok Shop entering markets like Brazil and Mexico [85][86] Europe - Europe accounts for 16% of global eCommerce sales, with penetration expected to reach 30% by 2028 [96] - The UK leads in online penetration, with non-food retail online penetration stabilizing at 37% in 2023 [97][98] Korea - Korea's eCommerce market is expected to grow at a high-single-digit rate in 2024, with online penetration reaching 33% by 2026 [117] - Retail market growth is lukewarm, with eCommerce penetration growth picking up since Q4 2023 [117][120] India - India's eCommerce market is forecasted to grow at a 20% CAGR through 2026, reaching $92bn, driven by beauty and fashion/apparel categories [123] - Quick commerce platforms are rapidly expanding, with Zomato achieving store-level profitability in this segment [124] Competitive Landscape - The top 5 eCommerce platforms (Amazon, Alibaba, PDD, JD, Shopify) held a combined 63% market share in 2023, with further consolidation expected [21][22] - Asia-based platforms like Temu and TikTok Shop are gaining share globally, with Temu expected to reach $45bn in GMV in 2024 [9] Key Trends - Platforms are focusing on price competitiveness, expanding SKU selections, and promoting second-hand goods to cater to value-conscious consumers [51] - Adtech upgrades are driving higher take rates, with platforms shifting from CPC to CPS models [56] - Social commerce, including livestream and short-form video shopping, is becoming a significant driver of eCommerce growth, particularly in ASEAN [73]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Equity Sachs Research 19 June 2024 | 3:13AM HKT Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK): GMV +36% yoy at 6.18 shopping festival, on nigher smartphone AsP and strong large home appliance sales; Buy Xiaomi reported Rmb26.3bn GMV (+36% yoy and 17% higher than 2023 Singles' Day GMV) during the 6.18 shopping festival across online and offline channels. This robust 6.18 print implies faster China revenue run rate than GSe, which is equivalent to 73% of Xiaomi's China smartphone and loT revenue ...

Investment Rating - The report rates EDPR, RWE, and Orsted as "Buy" due to their significant exposure to the US market and expected higher returns from renewable energy projects [6][48][66]. Core Insights - Renewables are transitioning from being a substitute for thermal plants to becoming essential assets to meet rising electricity demand in both the US and Europe [1][2]. - The tightening supply/demand balance for renewables is expected to lead to higher returns, with project IRRs currently estimated at 8-10% for US developers [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant increase in power demand expectations driven by factors such as datacenters and electrification, which is anticipated to boost renewable energy returns [7][24]. Summary by Sections Renewables and Power Demand - Over the past 15 years, power demand in Europe has declined by approximately 10%, while the US demand has remained broadly flat [2][8]. - Renewables have primarily replaced fossil fuel plants during this period, but the current inflection in power demand is expected to change this dynamic [1][11]. Supply/Demand Balance and Returns - The combination of rising demand expectations and recent capex reductions by major renewable developers is tightening the supply/demand balance, leading to improved returns [3][20]. - The report anticipates that the US will see a more immediate impact from these trends, with Europe expected to follow suit within 1-2 years [7][31]. Company-Specific Insights - EDPR's business is estimated to have around 55% exposure to the US, while RWE and Orsted have approximately 25-30% and 25% exposure, respectively [6][48]. - The report slightly upgrades return assumptions for these companies and raises EPS estimates and price targets, reflecting the positive outlook for US renewable energy projects [6][48][66]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the reserve margin in Europe may turn negative by 2030 due to rising power demand and a slowdown in renewable energy additions, which could lead to higher PPA prices [31][41]. - The expected cumulative growth in power consumption in Europe is projected to be around 40% over the next decade, driven by the expansion of datacenters and electrification [34][35].

高盛：欧洲饮料行业海尼克恩将从欧洲杯中受益;利润由欧洲、巴西和成本投入驱动。 ...

谢谢各位好我是向云国际新闻研究分析师郑明康以下我们会跟大家一同介绍我们下半年的展望当中光谱的部分是由我们团队的文号跟大家介绍的首先我们从一个 紫行业顺序跟大家介绍一下其实我们对于紫行业的编号的话我们觉得在电影改的背景之下我们觉得还是跟运营商那边的利好会多一点然后光谱方面的话我们从叶元熙多星归以及 光谱玻璃上的资本块当中的话我们觉得还是看好那个联名器方面的一个就是在未来那个发展会好一点简单说一下其实我们对于 运营商方面的话 我们觉得现在国家已经是出台了就是有两个文件去协调一下新生装机方面的利用率虽然是对于全年商务来讲的话会是有下调的可能性但是 这部分腾出来的空间的话对于一些装机速度跟规模比较快的一些就是投入企业来讲的话相对应来讲的还是一个利好能确保就是以后的营利增长及发电量的上升这一方面的话我觉得还是会 对于运营商来讲的话还是比较有利的另外就是在分红政策方面的话我们觉得就是运营商来讲的话管理层总体来讲的还是比较重视美股分红的那个同比增长所以这方面的话也是能满足一些比较常见的投资者的一个角度对于光谱来讲的话我们觉得 独裁能不能比例太来的话还是一个比较关键的一个情景我们觉得在双方人来讲的话我们看到光谷玻璃有一个比较 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call involves **Jia Yun International New Energy** and its outlook for the second half of the year, specifically focusing on the **photovoltaic sector** [1] Core Points and Arguments - The analysis team, led by **Zheng Mingkang**, will present insights regarding the company's performance and market trends in the **photovoltaic industry** [1] Other Important Content - The presentation will include contributions from **Wen Hao**, who will provide detailed information on the **photovoltaic segment** [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Oracle Corp. (ORCL) with a 12-month price target raised to $137, indicating a potential upside of 10.6% from current levels [1][14]. Core Insights - Oracle is expected to achieve notable growth in its Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment, with management projecting over 50% growth for FY25, following a 51% increase in FY24 [1][7]. - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth in FY25, breaking the trend of low-to-mid single-digit growth seen in previous years [1][7]. - Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $98 billion, reflecting strong demand across its offerings [1][7]. - The report highlights Oracle's competitive positioning in the IaaS market, despite being a distant fourth compared to major players like AWS, Azure, and GCP [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Oracle are set at $52.96 billion for FY24, increasing to $64.91 billion in FY25, and reaching $72.31 billion by FY26 [6][8]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from $29.19 billion in FY24 to $39.23 billion by FY27, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6][8]. - The report outlines a projected EPS growth from $5.56 in FY24 to $8.37 by FY27, reflecting strong earnings potential [6][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Oracle is recognized for its extensive technology stack and large Total Addressable Market (TAM), which positions it well for future growth [7][8]. - The company is focusing on converting its database support customers to its Autonomous Database offerings, which could significantly enhance revenue [7][8]. - Oracle's strategy includes leveraging its dual offerings for small and medium businesses (SMBs) and enterprise customers through NetSuite and Fusion ERP [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes Oracle's current valuation at 36x EV/FCF for FY26, suggesting a balanced risk/reward profile [7][8]. - Key financial ratios indicate a P/E of 20.6 for FY24, decreasing to 14.8 by FY27, which may attract investors looking for growth at a reasonable price [3][6]. Competitive Landscape - Oracle faces challenges in maintaining its market share in the database sector due to competition from hyperscalers and pure-play companies [7][8]. - Despite these challenges, Oracle is expected to sustain its leadership in the ERP market, supported by its comprehensive product offerings [7][8].