高盛：日本科技半导体资本设备Micron业绩预示DRAM需求推动HBM,资本支出将大幅上升 ...

我们总体认为,美国经济是非常有韧性的,中长期的动能依然非常 强劲。 下半年美国经济增长的降速更多是因为高基数,以及美国消费动能 的相关变量有所减弱。 济比较乐观，认为美国经济是软着陆。 总体来看,不要对美国有过高的政策放水有所期待,也不要把我们 自己的货币政策宽松空间建立在美国放水的基础之上。 所以，从外部环境来看，我们还是"熬"字当头。 美股中长期我仍是坚定看多,但是,短期的维度来看,无论是纳斯 达克还是标普,预测市盈率均处于历史高位。 当下,美国风险偏好过高、风险溢价过低,如果下半年随着美国经 济有所回落,美股很有可能出现区间震荡，需要半年左右的时间去 震荡消化。 235 215 低增长时代并不是股市没机会，核心是要注重股权文化 美国经济中期有韧性、有效需求强,美股指数也是最优秀的一批公 司帶着走。 再看欧洲,欧洲的经济比我们差,欧洲的地缘政治比我们差,还有 很多的内部矛盾。 虽然欧洲的宏观数据比我们糟糕,但并不妨碍欧洲股市在"十一骑 士"的带动下持续上涨、一骑绝尘。 所以,我们在去年年底,对美债10年期的收益率的预判是下到 3.5%左右;今年一季度末,上调了美债收益率的下行的目标,大概 在 3.8%左右 ...

一起在线上的还有我们组的同事欣扬我是中兵传媒的紫月其实我们在写本篇报告的过程当中是更多想要去通过去回顾线上的广告平台他们在EQ的一个静的情况来观察整体广告板块他们走到了一个什么样的状态所以我会先对我们整个报告大致的情况以及说当中我们观察到的一些要点先跟大家做一个分享然后稍后的话我们会开启QA环节首先我们从EQ24的业绩来看我们觉得其实行业它并没有发生非常明显的边界的变化 我们在22年23年一直讲的这个广告组景深预算这件事情并没有改变 其背后的原因肯定也是整体的广告的大环境宏观的大环境它仍然是延续之前的一个状态那广告者他们依然是非常的强调广告的效率转化的效果那在这样的一个大背景之下我们看到的情况就是其实是广告平台他们在积极的修炼自己的内功来更好的适应当下的这个广告需求外部宏观环境的状态来更多的去获取广告者的预算所以这个其实对应的是我们这篇报告的前半句叫做十遍重移它是说我们看到广告平台广告媒体做了非常多 对于像类似数据标签全链路的数据获取广告产品的自动化等等做了非常多的这些内部的广告效率提升的动作来主动的适应整体环境的变化 那在这样的一个平台主动修炼内功的这个情况之下呢我们觉得进入到二级度随着整个618的活动开启 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Guotai Donation Coupons, specifically for clients who have officially signed up for the service [1] Core Points and Arguments - The content of the conference call is intended solely for internal learning purposes for Guotai Donation Coupon clients and is not to be disseminated externally without prior approval from Guotai Donation Coupon Research Institute [1] - Guotai Donation Coupons has not authorized any media to forward the content related to this conference call [1] - Any sharing of the conference call content requires permission and authorization [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on confidentiality and internal use highlights the strategic importance of the information discussed in the call [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ctrip Group achieved better-than-expected financial performance in Q1 2024, with revenue slightly exceeding expectations and net profit significantly surpassing market expectations by 45%, resulting in a net profit margin of 34%, well above the company's medium to long-term guidance of 25% to 30% [3][36] - The overall domestic tourism revenue reached 1.52 trillion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ctrip's domestic hotel and flight bookings increased by over 20% year-on-year, outpacing the overall tourism market growth of 17% [3] - Ctrip's core OTA business revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, while the vacation business contributed approximately 700 million yuan in revenue growth [29] - Tongcheng Travel's core online business continued to develop steadily, but the newly acquired offline travel agency business, which has a lower profit margin, impacted overall profitability [4][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The summer travel market is expected to be a significant reference for annual tourism forecasts, with strong performance in short-haul travel to Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea due to visa-free policies and increased flight availability [6][17] - The online travel market is projected to exceed 2.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with online penetration rates potentially rising to 40%-50% [32][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ctrip is considered a preferred target for investment in the tourism industry chain due to its leading market share domestically and its ongoing international expansion efforts, which may allow it to surpass Booking.com [8][36] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online business and expanding its market presence, particularly among younger consumers who show a higher propensity for online bookings [7][34] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of the summer travel market for future performance, noting that the recovery in domestic tourism is a strong support for OTA platforms [6][36] - The management expressed optimism about maintaining a net profit margin of 25% to 30% for the year, with potential for exceeding 30% if cost control remains effective [18][36] Other Important Information - The integration of the offline travel agency business into Tongcheng Travel's operations is expected to take time for optimization, which may affect overall profitability in the short term [4][29] - The average daily rate (ADR) for domestic hotels remained stable year-on-year, which is better than industry performance, while the commission rate remained steady [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel perform in Q1 2024? - Ctrip reported a significant net profit exceeding market expectations by 45%, while Tongcheng Travel showed mixed results due to the impact of its newly acquired offline travel agency business [3][4][36] Question: What is the outlook for the summer travel market? - The summer travel market is anticipated to be a key indicator for annual tourism forecasts, with strong growth expected in outbound travel due to favorable policies and increased flight availability [6][17] Question: What are the advantages of Tongcheng Travel in terms of user scale and long-term growth? - Tongcheng Travel is the largest online travel agency in China, with significant potential for increasing individual user spending, which is a key driver for long-term growth [34]

本次电话会议仅服务于国泰捐赠券正式签约客户会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰捐赠券客户内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰捐赠券研究所审核后方可留存国泰捐赠券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权 转载转发均属侵权国泰均安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰均安证券不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提请广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策大家好欢迎参加国泰均安证券 中期策略七十页PPT财税改革释放增长空间聚焦科技和高股息龙头目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面有请主持人讲话谢谢各位投资者各位朋友晚上好我是国军建筑韩星成今天晚上由我和郭浩然共同给大家汇报一下我们中期策略报告大概七十页的深度PPT会议分为两个部分首先我大概用二十分钟以内的时间把我们的整体思路和重点推荐的组合给大家汇报一下 后面那个郭浩然会用这个70页的深度PUT把逻辑的细节和重点公司给大家做40分钟的详细的汇报首先是我做个概要性的这个把思路给大家汇报一下整个的这个我们的策略报告的下半年的整体思路是以改革为基石左手抓科技右手抓高估息但是这是我们的核心思想那这话很显然就是我们把改革作为这样一个重要的基础的逻辑根基去理解这个事情 首先我 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue of 3,888 million yuan for 2023, with projections of 5,702 million yuan for 2024, 7,811 million yuan for 2025, and 10,712 million yuan for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 35.34% in 2023 and expected growth rates of 46.63%, 37.00%, and 37.14% for the subsequent years [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 911 million yuan in 2023 to 1,107 million yuan in 2024, 1,648 million yuan in 2025, and 2,455 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 36.21%, 21.55%, 48.92%, and 48.93% respectively [8][9] - The company's EBITDA is expected to rise from 922.97 million yuan in 2023 to 1,314.16 million yuan in 2024, reaching 2,000 million yuan in 2025 and 2,907.38 million yuan in 2026 [8][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The TSV (Through-Silicon Via) cleaning equipment and copper plating equipment are highlighted as key growth drivers, with the company securing repeat orders for TSV plating equipment from multiple clients [4][5] - The global semiconductor plating equipment market is projected to grow from 4 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.1 billion yuan in 2030, with the company positioned to benefit from this growth [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor plating equipment market is dominated by major players, with a CR5 of approximately 73%, indicating a concentrated market [5] - The company is expected to maintain a high market demand for TSV plating equipment into 2024, following an increase in orders starting from the second half of 2023 [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market, which is anticipated to be a significant growth area [4] - The proprietary SAPS and TEBO ultrasonic cleaning technologies are being leveraged to address global challenges in integrated circuit cleaning [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the future demand for HBM-related equipment, citing strong customer interest and the company's technological advancements [4][5] - The company acknowledged potential risks, including external uncertainties, technological iteration risks, and market expansion challenges [7] Other Important Information - The company maintains a debt ratio of 33.8%, with a projected increase in total liabilities from 3,296 million yuan in 2023 to 8,709 million yuan in 2026 [9] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 41.29, with projections of 34 times for 2024, 23 times for 2025, and 15 times for 2026 [3][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the growth prospects for the HBM market? - The HBM market is expected to be a significant growth point for the company, with increasing demand for TSV cleaning and plating equipment [4][5] Question: How does the company plan to address technological risks? - The company is investing in R&D to mitigate technological iteration risks and enhance its competitive edge in the market [7]

Compa n y U pda te Ch in a Res ear ch Dep t . 2024年06月24日 石头科技(688169.SZ) 买进（Buy） 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 股权激励调动员工积极性，内外销两旺助力公司营收增长 目标价(元) 466 事件：近日公司发布2024年限制性股票激励计划和事业合伙人持股计划，授予 公司基本信息 产业别 机械设备 价格均为每股208.2元（为6月20日股价的50.1%）。其中，股票激励拟授予5.4 A股价(2024/6/24) 404.76 万股（定向发行，占总股本的0.04%），对象共29人（占总员工数的1.8%）， 上证指数(2024/6/24) 2963.10 股价12个月高/低 469.99/211.75 均为公司管理、技术及业务骨干人员，考核目标为2024-2027年公司营收较2023 总发行股数(百万) 131.58 年增长不低于10%、14%、18%、22%。 A股数(百万) 131.58 A市值(亿元) 532.58 合伙人持股计划拟持有不超过17.0万股（回购股票，占总股本的0.13%），对 主要股东 昌敬(22 ...

Investment Rating - The report has lowered the industry growth forecast to +5% for CY24, reflecting a decrease of 100 basis points due to softness in Greater China, partially offset by stronger tourism sales in Japan [4][11]. Core Insights - The luxury goods sector has experienced a de-rating recently, with a 10% decline over the past three months compared to a 3% increase in MSCI Europe, primarily due to disappointing trends in Mainland China [2][15]. - Despite the challenges in China, the report remains optimistic about the sector's ability to sustain growth, particularly highlighting the robust performance of the Japanese luxury market [2][4]. - The forecast for the Chinese cluster growth in 2024 has been adjusted to +10%, down from +13%, but still aligns with historical GDP growth trends [4][11]. Summary by Sections Macro Trends - The report indicates a steady growth outlook for 2Q24, driven by positive trends in Japan and continued momentum in the US and Rest of the World (ROW) [3][4]. - Domestic trends in China have softened, with retail sales decelerating post-Lunar New Year and negative export/import data [3][4]. Regional Insights - Japan's luxury market is highlighted as a key area of strength, with tourism spending significantly increasing, reaching over 300% of 2019 levels in May [25][15]. - The report notes that while Greater China faces challenges, outbound tourism from China is improving, benefiting regions like Japan [25][15]. Growth Drivers - The analysis suggests that the second half of 2024 may see a meaningful uptick in growth, supported by easier comparisons in 4Q and positive wealth effects in the US [4][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Japan's momentum as a counterbalance to the domestic challenges faced in China, maintaining a resilient top-line setup for the sector [4][11].

高盛：酒类跟踪器更多措施稳定茅台批发价格;618酒类GMV大幅 ...