证券研究报告·行业深度 证券业高水平"走出去"的历 史进程和未来展望 核心观点 在金融强国建设不断推进、实体企业出海日益加快的背景 下，中资券商高水平走出去既是服务实体经济和国家战略大局的 必然要求，又是一流投行建设的应有之义。本文对国际一流投行 的国际化发展历程进行了详细回顾，并对中资头部券商国际化业 务布局进行了梳理，以期总结出"券商为什么要出海？怎么出 海？出海去哪？"的完整战略路径，并对我国券商国际业务的发 展提供一定的参照和借鉴意义。 摘要 券商为什么要出海？时代背景和行业格局使然 在加快建设金融强国的背景下，中资券商高水平走出去既 是服务实体企业走出去、融入全球金融治理体系的必然要求， 同时也是证券行业自身实现建设一流投行、实现高质量发展的 应有之义，具有显著的经济和政治意义。 券商怎么出海？国际化战略与管理模式相互适配 本文对摩根士丹利、高盛、野村等全球一流投行的国际化历 程进行了复盘，总结了券商国际业务的发展需要有清晰的国际化 发展路径以适应不同市场情况，同时还需要打造与发展模式相适 配的管理体系以兼顾当地团队的灵活性和总部管理的一致性。 券商出海去哪？市场容量和客户需求相结合 本文对中资券商 ...

证券研究报告·行业动态 每周观察：海风柔直的增量空间几何 ——新能源行业每周观察 核心观点 柔性直流输电方式多适用于海上风电大规模、远距离输送。大量柔 性直流海风项目处于规划状态，其中有明确项目清单的体量合计约 10GW，并网在 2025 年及以后，预计后续渗透率持续提升。我们预 计 2027 年新增柔性直流海上风电项目 5GW，渗透率约为 23% ，后 续年份渗透率逐步提升。海风柔直送出系统的设备相对集于换流站， 换流阀为换流站的核心设备，海缆等材料价值不菲。经测算，预计 "十五五"期间，海风配套的柔直换流阀的市场空间将提升至数十 亿，未来海风领域对柔直阀的增量需求将较为可观。 大量柔性直流海风项目处于规划状态，预计后续渗透率持续提升 目前我国规划的柔性直流海风项目较多，其中有明确项目清单的 体量合计 约 10GW，并网在 2025 年及以后。已建成采用柔直技术项目为 1.1GW 如东 海风项目，大量项目处于仍规划状态。 摘要 海风柔直的必要性：远距离海上风电的优选 1）通常来说，高压交流输电适合小于 70 千米左右的输送距离、400MW左 右的容量，超过这个临界值输电损耗将会增大，且其在故障处理中也较为复 ...

证券研究报告 以旧换新细则发布，看好一季度整车景气度延续 分析师：程似骐 chengsiqizgs@csc.com.cn 021-68821600 SAC 编号:S1440520070001 SFC 编号:BQR089 分析师：陶亦然 taoyiran@csc.com.cn 010-85156397 SAC 编号:S1440518060002 分析师：陈怀山 chenhuaishan@csc.com.cn 021-68821600 SAC 编号:S1440521110006 分析师：马博硕 maboshuo@csc.com.cn 010-65608316 SAC 执证编号：S1440521050001 分析师：胡天贶 hutiankuang@csc.com.cn 010-56135198 SAC 编号:S1440523070010 发布日期：2025年1月20日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 分析师：李粵皖 liyuewan@ ...

证券研究报告行业动态报告 DeepSeek激活创新竞争，AI应用迎来"安卓时刻" 分析师：杨艾莉 yangaili@csc.com.cn 010-85156448 SAC 编号：S1440519060002 SFC 编号：BQI330 分析师：杨晓玮 yangxiaowei@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440523110001 发布日期：2025年2月4日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下 ，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点 1、Deepseek激发创新竞争之后，AI应用怎么看？ 应用开发迎来"安卓时刻" 回顾安卓与iOS应用的发展，我们率先提出不应只关注大模型本身的用户数及活跃度，更应 该关注开发者，尤其是中小开发者的数量。据GitHub，在Llama比DeepSeek开源时间早1年半 的情况下，目前DeepSeek R1在GitHub上的开发者点赞数量已经达到约5.7万，接近Llama。根 据GitHub、Hugging Face社区 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The development of pension finance is crucial for promoting high-quality development in China's financial and pension sectors, which is essential for national development and the well-being of millions of people [1][2] - The report tracks the dynamics of pension finance, covering the three pillars of the pension system: basic pension insurance, social security funds, enterprise annuities, pension financial products, and personal pensions [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Pension Finance Policy Tracking - Recent policies emphasize the importance of pension finance in addressing population aging, with significant national strategies and guidelines issued to enhance the pension system [13][24] - The report highlights the establishment of a multi-tiered pension insurance system and the gradual implementation of a personal pension system across the country [23][24] 2. First Pillar Pension Tracking - As of Q3 2024, the entrusted investment scale of the basic pension insurance fund reached 1.9 trillion yuan [3] - The report notes the importance of improving the national coordination of basic pension insurance and enhancing the safety and regulatory framework for social security funds [14][15] 3. Second Pillar Pension Tracking - By Q3 2024, the accumulated fund scale of enterprise annuity plans was approximately 3.52 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [3] - The average investment return rate for enterprise annuities in the third quarter was 1.56%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.81 percentage points [3] 4. Third Pillar Pension Tracking - As of Q3 2024, the scale of personal pension funds and personal pension financial products reached 73 million yuan and 46 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.6% and 429.7% [3] - The report indicates that the average non-annualized return rates for personal pension funds and financial products were 7.0% and 0.49%, respectively [3] 5. Pension Industry Finance Tracking - The report discusses the importance of financial support for the aging population and the development of the silver economy, emphasizing the need for innovative financial products tailored to different elderly demographics [24][25] - It highlights the government's encouragement for financial institutions to develop diverse pension financial products and services to meet the varied needs of the elderly population [25][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the securities industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The securities industry is transitioning from a growth model focused on asset scale and human capital to one emphasizing value creation, driven by significant changes in the operating environment since 2024 [3][14]. - The industry is exploring various transformation paths, including platformization, diversification, and open business model innovations, to adapt to intensified competition and regulatory changes [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Brokerage and Wealth Management - The brokerage and wealth management sectors are under pressure due to weakened demand and intense competition, leading to a shift from traditional growth strategies to value creation strategies [15][16]. - Revenue from brokerage services, including agency trading and financial product sales, has declined, with total brokerage fee income down by 13% [16]. - Firms are adopting diverse strategies such as quantitative brokerage and private wealth management to enhance customer value and adapt to market changes [15][21]. 2. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector is facing cyclical fluctuations, particularly in IPOs, which are critical for discovering corporate value [38][42]. - The competition in the bond underwriting market is intensifying, with major firms like China Galaxy and招商证券 showing significant growth in their underwriting scales [55][56]. - The report highlights a need for investment banks to transition from merely facilitating listings to enhancing the quality of listed companies [42][49]. 3. Investment Management - The asset management sector is experiencing a divergence in growth trends, with securities firms accelerating the establishment of asset management subsidiaries while public funds face challenges [5][6]. - The report notes a shift towards net asset value-based products and the need for asset management firms to strengthen their liability side capabilities [5][6]. 4. Proprietary Trading - Proprietary trading faces challenges in performance volatility and the need to balance between non-directional and customer-driven business models [10][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing volatility and stabilizing returns through synchronized efforts in directional investments [10][27].

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - The core contradiction in China's economy remains its internal demand, influenced by the balance of internal and external factors and the rhythm of the RMB exchange rate[2] - In 2024, the global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by five key themes: persistent inflation in the US, weak demand and policy expansion in China, pricing opportunities in upstream commodities driven by liquidity and geopolitical factors, global manufacturing supply chain restructuring, and the continued strength of the US dollar[3] - The US MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy framework has been effectively implemented for nearly a decade, regardless of the political party in power[5] Group 2: US Economic Policies - The MAGA policy aims to bring high-end manufacturing back to the US, strengthen technological leadership, and restructure the global supply chain for low-end manufacturing[9] - The Biden administration's MAGA framework has led to significant private sector investment and persistent core inflation, with technology stocks outperforming expectations[12] - The US economy is expected to face uncertainties in 2025, including downstream inflation, monetary policy direction, and fiscal policy pressures due to high government debt levels[15][18] Group 3: China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is expected to follow three stages: liquidity easing, recovery of the real estate sector, and guiding capacity clearance to restore asset prices[22] - The current weak internal demand in China is not solely due to insufficient policy support but is also a result of a necessary transition in the real estate sector from financial products to consumer goods[11] - The probability of a strong stimulus similar to the 2008 four trillion yuan package is low, given the significant differences in the current economic fundamentals[12] Group 4: Global Commodity and Market Outlook - The global commodity market is influenced by geopolitical factors and liquidity expectations, with gold prices rising over 30% this year due to high inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions[84] - The restructuring of global manufacturing supply chains is evident, with China's machinery exports growing by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate of 4.6%[96] - The outlook for major asset classes in 2025 suggests that US stocks and bonds will be heavily influenced by monetary policy, while China's stock market may benefit from liquidity-driven trading opportunities[24]

Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%[2] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately, with CPI growth around 1% and PPI growth around 0%[3] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase significantly, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a broad fiscal deficit rate of 8.2%-9.6%[3] Policy Focus - Policies will focus on external shocks, macroeconomic regulation, and long-term planning, with a balance between supply and demand[4] - Real estate policies will continue to intensify, with reforms in the housing market and local government debt resolution[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will deepen reforms and promote modernization, with a focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading[121] Asset Allocation - Gold prices are expected to rise, potentially reaching $3000/ounce, driven by global uncertainty and monetary policy adjustments[128] - Crude oil prices are expected to slightly decline due to OPEC production increases and relaxed US energy regulations[129] - A-shares are recommended for overweight allocation, while the bond market is cautiously optimistic[130] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, technological innovation, leading companies, new supply chains, and elderly care and fertility sectors[4]

量化 CTA 风格因子跟踪-本周动量因子 表现较好 摘要 传统上，多因子主要应用于股票市场。随着我国期货 市场规模和上市品种数量的充分增长，多因子截面 CTA 策略也日益受到交易者关注。 我们研究发现了动量、期限结构、贝塔、波动率、偏 度、持仓等因子的有效性，并通过指数化，形成期货 市场的 Smart Beta，对它们作持续的跟踪。 风险提示：本报告仅对商品期货市场风格作客观呈现， 不具备任何交易建议。历史业绩不代表未来业绩，回 测业绩不代表实盘业绩，期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 C H I N A F U T U R E S R E S E A R C H 简评报告 [table_invest] 作者姓名：彭鲸桥 邮箱：pengjingqiao@csc.com.cn 电话：023-86769675 期货从业信息：F3074348 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012925 研究助理：盛亦青 邮箱：shengyiqing@csc.com.cn 电话：021-50600172 期货从业信息：F03107834 发布日期： 2024 年 9 月 15 日 | 一、 | 市场及板块一览 1 | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告·债券动态 日本意外加息，全球收益率下行 ——全球债市观察双周报 2024811 期 核心观点 利率债方面，仍维持中枢波动下行的假设，上行是加仓机会。本期全球国 债利率中枢亦维持下行方向，10Y 美债利率从 4.2%一度降至 3.7%以下， 期末回到 3.9-4%区间。往后看，美国通胀、就业数据逐步回落的大趋势难 改，利率大方向仍是往下。信用债方面，衰退风险仍可控，高等级信用债 和 MBS 类资产的票息价值仍然值得关注，但投机级、高风险行业应该规 避。美国经济基本面风险可控，出现快速下行乃至衰退的概率不大，因而 美国高等级信用债违约风险不大。目前投机级美国信用债的利差已经处于 30%左右较低的历史分位数，利差保护略显不足。 内容要点 一、全球债市观察：全球收益率下行、美国降息预期加重 本期（7 月 29 日至 8 月 11 日），彭博全球综合指数收益率收 3.51%，彭 博全球综合信用指数收益率收 4.50%，较两周前分别-20.34、-17.73BP。 利率预期方面，美国年内降息预期次数增加，日本由于 7 月 31 日加息， 年内加息预期减弱。国别利差方面，各地区代表国家对美国利差倒挂均收 窄。 ...