证券研究报告·A 股公司简评 特钢Ⅱ 子公司利润增长，海外布局 可期 核心观点 公司公布 2024 年年度报告，全年营业收入 1092.03 亿元，同比下 降 4.22%；归母净利润 51.26 亿元，同比下降 10.41%。2024 年公 司产量 2016 万吨（同比+1.5%），实现对外销量 1889 万吨（同 比持平），其中外贸出口 220 万吨（同比-7.6%）。产品的下游 结构与 2023 年一致，收购天津大无缝后能源行业占比 34%，成 为公司第一大下游，其次为汽车行业占比 28%，机械设备占比 19%，高端特材占比 2%。分品种来看，棒材作为压舱石和核心 品种盈利能力维持，板材在激烈竞争中略有下滑，而天津大无缝 的代表产品无缝钢管和青岛特钢的代表产品线材毛利率有效提 升，展现了公司在收购和整合方面的优异能力，后续的外延扩张 值得期待。 事件 公司公布 2024 年年度报告。 2024年营业收入1092.03 亿元，同比下降 4.22%；归母净利润 51.26 亿元，同比下降 10.41%；扣非归母净利润 49.75 亿元，同比下降 5.48%；基本每股收益 1.02 元，基本每股收益同比下降 9 ...

秦港库存环比增加 1.25%，同比增长 39.92% 煤炭库存方面，截至 3 月 21 日，秦港库存 729 万吨，环比增加 9 万吨，增幅 1.25%，同比增加 202 万吨，增幅 39.92%。而广州港 3 月 21 日库存为 242.5 万吨，环比减少 11.3 万吨，降幅 4.45%， 同比减少 42.5 万吨，降幅 14.91%。 投资建议 证券研究报告·行业动态 煤炭供需维持宽松运行，强 制绿证消费提升市场需求 核心观点 近期，国家统计局、国家能源局披露 2025 年 1-2 月份能源生产和 用电量情况，1-2 月份，规上工业发电量 14921 亿千瓦时，同比下 降 1.3%；从上游煤炭生产情况来看，1-2 月份，规上工业原煤产 量 7.7 亿吨，同比增长 7.7%，增速比上年 12 月份加快 3. 5 个百分 点。整体来看，原煤生产稳定增长的趋势下，我们预计动力煤价 格仍有望维持下行趋势，火电盈利能力有望维持。近期，国家能 源局发布《关于促进可再生能源绿色电力证书市场高质量发展的 意见》，针对目前绿证市场需求不足、绿色电力环境价值低估的 问题，以构建强制消费与自愿消费相结合的绿证消费机制为核 心 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [4][16]. Core Views - On March 21, the company invested CNY 593 million in Chen'an Bio, acquiring a 51% stake, which allows the company to control Chen'an Bio. This investment is seen as a strategic move to expand into the therapeutic biopharmaceutical sector, particularly in metabolic diseases [2][3][8]. - Chen'an Bio has developed multiple products targeting diabetes and obesity, with several pipelines in late clinical stages or awaiting market approval. The investment is expected to create a new revenue stream for the company as these products move towards commercialization [3][8][10]. Financial Overview - The company forecasts revenues of CNY 274.39 billion, CNY 300.20 billion, and CNY 324.13 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit is projected to be CNY 23.49 billion in 2024, with a significant decline of 70.9% year-on-year, followed by growth in the subsequent years [3][16]. - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (CNY million): 38,264.01 in 2022, projected 52,917.77 in 2023, and 27,438.55 in 2024 - Net Profit (CNY million): 7,539.00 in 2022, projected 8,069.87 in 2023, and 2,348.74 in 2024 - EPS (CNY): 3.15 in 2022, projected 3.37 in 2023, and 0.98 in 2024 [3][16]. Strategic Developments - The investment in Chen'an Bio is part of the company's strategy to diversify its business from vaccines to therapeutic biopharmaceuticals, which is expected to be a significant growth driver in the future [3][10][15]. - The report highlights that Chen'an Bio's pipelines, including GLP-1 analogs and insulin products, are positioned well in the market, with some products nearing commercialization [8][9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 15.92 yuan for the next six months [11]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.1% [2][3]. - The decline in profit despite revenue growth is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in impairment provisions [3]. - The company continues to rank among the top five in national sales, with a focus on core cities, where the investment proportion has increased [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 was 178.9 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, while net profit dropped to 4.04 billion yuan, down 36.1% [2][3]. - The gross margin for real estate development decreased to 15.58%, a decline of 1.53% year-on-year [3]. - Impairment provisions increased significantly, with asset impairment and credit impairment provisions amounting to 4.48 billion yuan and 1.55 billion yuan, respectively, which were higher by 2 billion yuan and 1.41 billion yuan compared to 2023 [3]. Sales and Investment Strategy - The company secured a total contracted sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position among the top five nationally [3]. - The total land acquisition cost was 48.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 57% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 22% [3]. - Investment in first-tier cities accounted for 59% of total land acquisitions, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, with the top 10 core cities representing 90% of the investment [3]. Asset Management and Financing - The asset management business generated revenue of 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [3]. - The company’s comprehensive financing cost at the end of the year was 2.99%, a reduction of 48 basis points from the beginning of the year, maintaining the best level in the industry [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][21]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership with ByteDance's Jidream is expected to position the company favorably in the AI application sector, focusing on AI-driven content innovation and industry upgrades [9][20]. - The company is projected to benefit from an unexpected increase in movie box office revenues in the first quarter, alongside potential growth from IP derivative areas such as games and card products [20][16]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 113 million, 272 million, and 393 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.86%, +140.58%, and +44.20% [21]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth from 368.35 million yuan in 2022 to 1.31 billion yuan in 2026, with a notable increase in net profit from -334.80 million yuan in 2022 to 392.66 million yuan in 2026 [3][21]. Strategic Developments - The collaboration with Jidream aims to enhance AI applications in the film industry, including the development of lightweight AI creation tools and a vast AI material library [9][10]. - The company is actively working on revitalizing classic IPs through AI and PUGC content, leveraging its rich portfolio of classic animations [13][20]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative decline over the past 12 months, with a performance of -15.00% compared to the market [5]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 11.73 billion yuan, with a stable shareholding structure where Shanghai Film Group holds 69.22% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the logistics sector [4]. Core Insights - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, aiming for 3000 points, with the price peaking at 2989 USD/ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.89% due to expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and tariff disputes [1][3]. - Oil prices continue to face downward pressure amid expectations of a potential short-term ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may lead to further negotiations or renewed conflicts, indicating volatility in oil prices [1][3]. - There is a temporary recovery in demand for thermal coal, with a reported capacity utilization rate of 96.3% across 462 mines, a week-on-week increase of 1.5 percentage points, although overall purchasing remains cautious [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The logistics sector overall saw an increase of 1.21% in the week from February 24 to February 28, with the raw material supply chain services segment rising by 1.44% [2][9]. Industry Dynamics - Global commodity futures prices have generally declined, with oil prices experiencing significant drops [7]. - The logistics sector's performance relative to the Shanghai Composite Index indicates a mixed outlook, with some segments showing resilience [10]. Commodity Prices - The report highlights the recent performance of major commodities, including gold and oil, with gold prices showing a significant upward trend while oil prices are under pressure [16]. - The report also notes fluctuations in domestic commodity price indices, with a 1.3% month-on-month increase in China's commodity price index for February [26].

证券研究报告·A 股公司简评 燃气Ⅱ 员工持股彰显发展信心，海外 订单落地进入业绩释放期 核心观点 公司发布 2025 年员工持股计划(草案)，计划受让股份总数不超过 537.7650 万股，占公司目前总股本的 1.3942%，持有人包括公司董 事长、总经理以及董秘在内的不超过 30 人，业绩考核目标为以 2024 年实现的剔除商誉减值计提因素后归属于上市公司股东净利 润为基数，2025 年归属于上市公司股东净利润增长 40%。本次员 工持股计划实控人参与、不折价、业绩增长目标高，彰显公司发展 信心。公司天然气业务受外部因素影响计提商誉，24 年业绩出现 亏损，而公司设备业务海外订单不断创新高，25 年公司高毛利海 外订单开始正式大规模交付，将给公司带来显著的业绩弹性。 事件 公司发布 2025 年员工持股计划(草案) 公司于 3 月 14 日晚发布《中泰股份 2025 年员工持股计划(草案)》， 计划受让股份总数不超过 537.7650 万股，占公司目前总股本的 1.3942%，拟募集资金总额不超过 7,109.25 万元，受让公司回购专 用证券账户股份的价格为 13.22 元/股，本次员工持股计划的持有 ...

证券研究报告•宏观简评 宏观简评报告 提振消费政策的要点 | 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 18 日 | 分析师： | 周君芝 | 电话：15601683648 | SAC 编号： | S1440524020001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分析师： | 王泽选 | 电话：010-86451441 | SAC 编号： | S1440520070003 | 核心观点 国新办提振消费会议涉及 6 大部门，已知政策主要集中在财政和信贷。 此次会议较为明确的政策工具有两处，一是针对以旧换新、民生领域（医疗就业）给出具体数据；二是勾勒未 来还可动用的工具有货币信贷、财政贴息，只不过当前未给出明确数据。 此前市场最关注的生育补贴，虽未给出具体政策数据，但前日呼市给出的生育补贴信息，提高市场预期空间。 事实上早在 2021 年 7 月，四川攀枝花市便率先推出育儿补贴政策，后续各地也有陆续跟进（如浙江温州、湖 北荆门等）。 我们认为，生育补贴政策效果关键在于三对关系平衡：财政资金、部门联动、地方激励兼容。这或许也是关注 未来生育补贴政策需要密切跟踪的重点。 信 ...

证券研究报告•海外经济与大类资产简评 （1）恒科能否打通"经济提供 EPS 保障+AI 打开 PE 空间"的任督二脉？纳指 AI 叙事只是表象， 牛市根基在美国经济稳健。我国本轮牛市，经济复苏不能缺席。 （2）恒科能否重现 2013 互联网+行情"股价上涨带动盈利改善"的正反馈？彼时一大亮点是股 价和盈利内循环，本轮 AI 行情在这一机制上，或略逊色，但预期是动态变化的。 （3）恒科与纳指估值差距收敛，短期比价优势下降，但交易的趋势性不能轻视。 （4）美国衰退、美股盈利的压力多大？经济边际走弱，但美股盈利预期稳定，不像在定价深度 衰退。 （5）欧美资金后续会接力吗？南向和亚太目前是加仓主力。 （6）德国能不能再助攻一把？关注三个节点：议案通过情况、欧央行货币宽松配合态度、基建 等实际效果。 事件： 恒科 vs 纳指，后续的几个问题 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 18 日 分析师： 钱伟 SAC 编号： S1440521110002 核心观点： 年初至 3 月 17 日，纳斯达克指数下跌 8%，恒生科技指数上涨 31%，二者分化显著。 简评： "东升西落"的叙事自年初演绎至今，中美科技股的分化超出此前市场预 ...

证券研究报告·行业动态 2024 公募代销数据点评：ETF 驱动下的代销新格局 核心观点 24 年非货基金代销保有规模的增长主要由以股票 ETF 为代表的 股指基金所推动，债基代销规模亦迎来持续的增加，而主动权益 代销保有却在市场回暖下出现下滑。代销格局维度，主动权益仍 以银行领先；股指基金则以券商居上，24 下半年银行奋起直追； 固收类产品代销则以银行、三方为首。公募保有量本身的排名或 无法直观反映机构的能力，更多反映的是机构的选择。展望未来， 如何提高投资者的赚钱比例？实现基民回报、渠道回报、基金公 司回报三者之间的平衡或是其中的关键。实现"投资者获得感提 升-资本市场长期稳健发展"的正向循环，需要财富管理行业真正 站在客户的一边，而这需要投顾的力量、受托责任的力量、资产 配置和再平衡的力量。 亓良宸 事件 2025 年 3 月 14 日，中国证券投资基金业协会披露 2024 年下 半年基金销售机构公募基金销售保有规模数据。 数据显示，公募基金代销（前 100 名机构，下同）非货基金 保有规模 9.54 万亿，较上半年增加 7.6%，较去年同期增加 11.6%； 权益基金保有规模 4.85 万亿，较上半年 ...