Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Investment Banking, Macro Economy, Debt Resolution, Infrastructure Investment - **Company**: Not specified Core Views and Arguments - **U.S. Employment Data**: - **11th Month Data**: Strong recovery in employment, with 227,000 non-farm jobs added, reflecting a significant improvement from the previous month's impact of hurricanes and strikes. - **Sector Distribution**: Services sector, particularly contact services, saw a strong rebound, while manufacturing employment also recovered but not fully. - **Wage Growth**: Average hourly earnings rose 4.0% in November, indicating a strong labor market demand. - **Inflation and Unemployment**: The strong employment and wage growth suggests no further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, potentially leading to a stronger dollar index. - **Future Outlook**: The labor market is expected to remain tight, potentially leading to a wage and inflation spiral in Trump's second term. - **China's Debt Resolution and Infrastructure Investment**: - **Debt Resolution**: The pace of debt resolution is expected to accelerate from November, with a focus on loan cooling. - **New Urban Infrastructure Construction Plan**: Aimed at addressing the issue of project delays in infrastructure investment, with a focus on six investment directions and two information platforms. - **Funding Measures**: The plan provides for special bonds and increased credit for investment, aiming to expand the scope of new infrastructure investment. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The plan is expected to offset the decline in traditional infrastructure investment and maintain a stable level of investment in 2025. - **Macroeconomic Policies**: - **Fiscal Policy**: Central government expansion of fiscal deficit, increased consumption subsidies, and allocation of a large proportion of special bonds for affordable housing. - **Monetary Policy**: Continuous open market operations by the central bank to replace high-cost liquidity tools with low-cost tools, potentially leading to further downward pressure on bond yields. - **Potential for Rate Cuts**: Conditions for rate cuts may arise in the coming months, as the central bank seeks to replace MLF and buy government bonds. Other Important Content - **Data Lags**: The analysis acknowledges the lag in data, particularly in labor participation rate and unemployment rate, which may not fully reflect the true situation. - **Impact of Tariffs and Tax Cuts**: Trump's proposed tariffs and tax cuts may accelerate the rise in consumer prices and inflation. - **Immigration Policy**: Trump's border control policy may lead to a slowdown in population growth and stabilize labor participation rates. - **Bond Market**: The central bank's open market operations and expansion of repo operations may lead to further downward pressure on bond yields. - **Special Bonds for Affordable Housing**: Increasing the allocation of special bonds for affordable housing may stimulate consumer demand and improve the liquidity of real estate developers.

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Semiconductor industry in China - **Companies**: - **Affected**: SMIC, Fujian Jinhua, IC Research & Development, Wuhan Xinxin, Qingdao Weixin, Chinese Academy of Sciences Microelectronics Institute, Shanghai Integrated Circuit Industry Equipment and Material Innovation Center, etc. - **Others**: Micron, NVIDIA, Samsung, TSMC, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA Core Views and Arguments - **Sanctions Update**: - **Entity List**: 140 companies, mainly semiconductor equipment manufacturers, including SMIC, Fujian Jinhua, Wuhan Xinxin, etc. - **Controlled Items**: HBM, advanced semiconductor equipment, etc. - **VEU List**: Removed three Chinese companies (Zhongyi, Anwell, and China Resources Weilai) - **Impact on Companies**: - **Business Continuity**: Minimal impact on business continuity. - **Technology Certification**: Sanctions accelerate the process of domestic semiconductor industry development. - **Component Sector**: Accelerates the pace of domesticization. - **Equipment Sector**: Focus on companies with low domestic production rates, such as Yangtze Memory Technologies, Weiping, and Zhong微. - **Advanced Packaging**: Continuous iteration space in HBM2.5D and 3D directions. - **Wafer Fab**: Zhongxing Semiconductor has significant growth potential. - **HBM**: - **Restrictions**: Strict restrictions on HBM, affecting domestic AI training cards. - **Domestic Development**: Domestic companies are actively developing HBM technology. - **Advanced Packaging**: Leading companies include Tofu, Changjiang Electronics, and Yongxi Electronics. - **Advanced DRAM**: - **Definition**: Modified to focus on storage density. - **Impact**: Relatively relaxed for low-end products like LPDDR5. Other Important Content - **Software Key Control**: Additional control requirements for software keys. - **Red Flag Mechanism**: New mechanism for early warning of potential risks. - **Equipment Control List**: Added eight categories of high-end equipment. - **New List**: Seven types of equipment moved to the 3B993 list. - **China for China, Local for Local**: Expected to become a common model for companies in the semiconductor industry. Conclusion The sanctions have a significant impact on the Chinese semiconductor industry, accelerating the pace of domestic development and promoting the growth of domestic companies. However, the long-term impact remains to be seen.

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) and Restructuring - **Company**: Not specified, but the discussion is focused on the broader industry trends and historical patterns of M&A and restructuring. Core Views and Arguments - **M&A and Restructuring Wave**: The discussion highlights the current wave of M&A and restructuring as a significant opportunity, drawing parallels to historical trends. - **Policy and Economic Factors**: The M&A wave is attributed to policy support, particularly the "Nine Measures on M&A" and the Politburo Standing Committee's endorsement of M&A activities. - **Valuation Impact**: M&A can lead to increased valuations, as seen in historical US M&A waves. - **Economic Cycles**: The discussion emphasizes the correlation between economic cycles, policy cycles, and industry cycles with M&A waves. - **US Historical Waves**: The analysis delves into the five historical US M&A waves, examining economic, policy, and industry factors behind each wave. - **China's M&A Waves**: The presentation also covers China's three M&A waves, highlighting industry shifts and policy changes. - **Insights and Implications**: The presentation concludes with insights on the current M&A environment, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right direction and considering the stage of the M&A wave. Other Important Content - **US M&A Waves**: The presentation provides detailed information on the five US M&A waves, including economic, policy, and industry factors. - **China's M&A Waves**: The analysis covers China's three M&A waves, highlighting key trends and policy changes. - **Valuation Premiums**: The discussion compares valuation premiums in the US and China, noting higher premiums in China. - **M&A Risks**: The presentation mentions potential risks associated with M&A, such as high premium rates and speculative transactions. References - [1]: "We have gained insights from studying the history of M&A and restructuring across three centuries from the 19th to the 21st century." - [2]: "The direct driver of this M&A and restructuring wave is the 'Nine Measures on M&A' in September, and the final decision was made at the Political Bureau meeting on September 26th." - [3]: "The core reason for the valuation gap is that your core business remains unchanged, and the valuation of your existing company is naturally only the valuation of the existing assets. The market believes that your business has not changed, so why should your valuation change?" - [4]: "Through M&A and restructuring, companies can tell a story of incremental growth and take advantage of the opportunity to achieve rapid valuation increases." - [5]: "The five US M&A waves occurred in the 1900s, 1920s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s." - [6]: "The M&A wave is often along the direction of emerging technologies or high-tech industries." - [7]: "The first US M&A wave occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [8]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [9]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [10]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [11]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [12]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [13]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [14]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [15]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [16]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [17]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [18]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [19]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [20]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by a stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [21]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [22]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [23]: "The Western countries actually tacitly allowed cross-border M&A and even helped domestic enterprises to carry out cross-border M&A in the dark, because their core purpose is to challenge the market." - [24]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [25]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [26]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [27]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [28]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [29]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [30]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [31]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [32]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [33]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [34]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [35]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [36]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [37]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [38]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [39]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [40]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [41]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [42]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [43]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [44]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [45]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [46]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [47]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [48]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [49]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [50]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [51]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [52]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [53]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [54]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [55]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [56]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [57]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [58]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [59]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [60]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [61]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [62]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [63]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [64]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [65]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [66]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [67]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [68]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [69]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [70]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [71]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [72]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [73]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [74]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [75]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [76]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [77]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [78]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [79]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [80]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [81]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [82]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [83]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [84]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [85]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [86]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [87]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [88]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [89]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [90]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [91]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of 7 times." - [92]: "The index also ushered in a round of upward momentum." - [93]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the stable and secure political and economic environment after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War." - [94]: "The M&A wave in this round still followed a relatively relaxed regulatory policy, mainly due to the acceleration of globalization at that time." - [95]: "The M&A wave in the 1980s and 1990s was driven by the acceleration of globalization, and the demand for global markets from enterprises in various countries." - [96]: "The same is true for the early stage of the M&A wave, which was characterized by high valuation, followed by valuation improvement in the mid-stage and valuation digestion in the later stage." - [97]: "The same is true for the later stage, where the performance improvement drives the stock price increase and also brings about an increase in IPO issuance." - [98]: "The first wave of US M&A occurred between 1890 and 1900, when the economic background was the unification of the United States after the Spanish-American War." - [99]: "At that time, anti-monopoly policies and regulations were not very strict in the United States, and the Sherman Antitrust Act had some loopholes." - [100]: "Three-thirds of the M&A activities were concentrated in upstream resources such as oil, petrochemicals, coal, and metals." - [101]: "After the first wave of M&A, the United States formed a large number of industrial giants in the industrial field." - [102]: "The productivity of the manufacturing industry has been fully integrated, and the efficiency has been further improved." - [103]: "The rise of M&A also drives a round of capital market prosperity." - [104]: "The new monetary system established by the Bretton Woods system established the core status of the US dollar, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade promoted tariff reductions among countries." - [105]: "In 1950, the United States issued a new anti-monopoly law, the Celler-Kefauver Act." - [106]: "The increase in the population brought about a huge increase in consumer demand, driving the prosperity of the US economy." - [107]: "The giants of energy and manufacturing before World War II began to diversify through M&A to incorporate consumer businesses into their portfolios." - [108]: "The performance improvement of the second stage is mainly from 1963 to 1967, during which the ROE of US food and beverage companies increased from 9% to 13%." - [109]: "After the performance realization of the three stages, the valuation was digested, and the ROE was maintained at around 13%, and the PE was pushed from the highest 17 times to a normalized level of

感谢大家参加本次电话会议会议即将开始请稍后 本次会议为中信证券白名单会议仅限受邀客户参会未经中信证券和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中信证券保留追究相关法律责任的权利 好的各位投资人大家晚上好感谢大家晚上11点来参加我们的电话会美国商务部是大概在一个小时之前也就是北京时间的今晚10点落地了对华半导体制裁的相关文件我们看到一共是有两个文件一个是在58页的篇幅然后另一个是在152页 因为内容其实还是比较多并且这个文件其实也是英文的我们为了更好地去解读这个制裁的内容也是专门请到了京都律师事务所负责贸易合规业务的合伙人戴律师跟各位投资人大家做一个解读和分享就是聊聊看这个制裁的内容 代理师其实在国际贸易领域也有十余年的一个职业经验,在出口管制和经济制裁这方面为众多的客户提供了高质量的服务。 那么戴律师其实之前也服务于多家半导体企业的知名企业的相关的比较深刻的认知和见解我们下面就是先请戴律师跟大家能不能介绍一下这一次制裁的背景以及能够系统的梳理一下本次制裁的内容都有哪些跟咱们之前的预期相比是否有哪些变化 整理&字幕志愿者梁珍 毕竟那边就有 ...

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今天上午8点时间给各位投资者做一个美国对东南亚四国光复反侵销税率落定影响如何的一个电话汇报那么昨天应该是在29号美国当地时间29号美国商务部宣布了对柬埔寨马来西亚泰国和越南的经济光复电池就是电池和组件的反侵销税调查的初步肯定性裁定 对东南亚四国的反倾销税率范围在0到271.28%这样的一个税率那么前面其实已经发布过东南亚四国的反补缺这个税率那么我们去看一下就是 头部企业在东南亚的一些税率的情况其中金科马来西亚的税率是最低的不到25%然后的话是隆基马来西亚的税率大概是在30%左右那么金科越南金澳越南以及天河越南的税率基本上是在55%到60%之间这个其实相对来讲是比较合理的 那么税比较高的呢一个是泰国的天河啊这个是接近78%的税率然后是阿特斯啊接近101%的税率然后是隆基的越南274%的这个税率啊所以说综合各种情况来看的话啊新科新澳的税率相对来讲比较低然后是天河啊那么隆基虽然说马来西亚税率比较低但是呢越南的啊产能的税率是在头部企业里面是最高的啊所以说如果对于啊这个税的影响 那么从影响相对低到高的排序是金科、金澳、天和、阿克斯和农机主要是这样的一个影响那么这样的话其实就决定了东南亚四国的产能产出来的产品再输入到美国 ...

从最新的市场表现来看的话,美股还有免贷市场的话,整体而言也是比较认可贝森特的。因为在10月23号,特朗普也是经过了多方的比较和考虑,最终提名了贝森特为新的财政部部长。 那么之所以提名贝森特的话也是出于几个原因第一的话呢就是贝森特在主要的这个候选人里面他对这个关税政策的这个立场吧也是稍微偏中性一点那么这样一来的话可以起到环节市场担忧的这样的效果第二的话呢就是贝森特本人那么他呢其实也有民主党方面的这个支持的背景 早年的话曾经给奥巴马希拉里都捐货款所以如果说是贝森特来当财政部长的话他明年可以为推减税法案起到一些正面的效果第三的话就是贝森特本人出身的背景是华尔街的经理而且是以外汇 尤其是汇率领域比较擅长所以这一点的话可以为未来美国可能会产生的贸易还有外汇谈判做一个准备 所以基于这方面的东方考虑吧那么川普最终也是 极为谨慎的选择了贝森特如果跟历史上相比的话,康普这一次的提名速度的话,其实还是比较快的达到了历史上最快的一次水平只有财政部部长是经过了几番的考量那么贝森特本人的话,他的政策主张相对而言也是符合共和党的一贯的小政府主张的也就是点税、放松监管、控制赤字并且在关税的政策主张上是稍微偏中间一点 没有特别的鹰派但是也并 ...

各位尊敬的投资者大家好我是中国银河证券的宏观分析师张吾非常开心有机会给大家带来我们关于人民币汇率近期的一篇深度研究大家能看到就是从10月以来其实全球市场进行了一个Trump交易 美元指数和美债收益率都做了一个趋势性的上行那来到11月6号呢就是整个美国大选是尘埃落定川普其实是已经赢得了选举那美国其实即将要进入川普2.0时代那在这样的背景下其实市场依然在进行川普交易的这个主线 能看到整个非美货币其实都面临了阶段性的压力那我们现在呢其实人民币汇率再次来到了一个市场讨论的聚焦点那我们在这里呢就带来我们关于人民币汇率近期的一个深度研究那题目叫美国的关税汇率的两面 那其实我们是试图从短期和中期两个时间维度那给出我们在现在这个当下对于人民汇率的一些讨论那首先呢我们先从短期维度对人民汇率做一个我们的讨论那大家能看到其实我刚才介绍了 其实现在整个非美货币都在面临冲击那其实市场现在在做川普交易的整个的逻辑链条也比较简单也就是说川普交易其实是能看到整个美元在走强那美债收益率其实是做了一个上行那在这样的背景下其实整个非美货币和美元之间的利差在扩大 那在这样的背景下其实整个非美货币的汇率其实都在面临一个短期的冲击大家能看到我左边的这张 ...

用直播记录热点大家好这里是国信期货投研在线直播间今天是投研在线第二百二十八期主题是二零二四年美国当选总统经贸政策以及影响特朗普的经贸政策倾向是什么时点会怎样政策影响有哪些本期投研在线邀请研究咨询部宏观金融分析师助理张俊峰老师一起聊聊宏观好各位投资者大家下午好 今天呢我们还是来聊聊美国当选总统特朗普的他的一些经贸政策以及影响那么我们知道应该说是在北京时间的11月6号也就是上上周特朗普宣布正式当选了2024年美国的总统那么此后呢他的竞争对手哈里斯呢也承认了败选在这个过程当中 特朗普与现任的美国总统也进行了接触去沟通相关的白宫的这样一个交接的事宜那么从特朗普当选美国总统到今天过去大概两周的时间那么在这两周期间大家对于特朗普的一些相关经贸政策的认识有没有一些改变 或者说特朗普的经贸政策是不是我们仅仅关注他的时间点是关注他的短期影响还是说我们根据更去关注他的中长期之内有没有其他的一些影响所以今天还是来和大家再聊一聊 2024年美国当选总统特朗普的他的一些经贸政策倾向以及影响那么时长呢大概在40分钟左右那么从框架上呢主要还是包括两点一个呢是他的政策倾向第二个呢是他政策的影响最后呢我们再做一个小节那么刚才也介绍过了大家也比 ...

屏幕前的朋友们大家好欢迎来到东方京城直播间我是东方京城工商企业部王璐璐很高兴今天在直播间能跟大家聊一个非常热点的话题 就是美国大选结果对半导体行业的影响那半导体行业现在已经成为全球各国争夺的一个战略高地可以说是兵家必争之地半导体行业能否实现国产自主的替代的话也是影响到中国整个产业升级成功与否的关键因素之一所以说这个话题是非常重要的 今天我的汇报呢主要分成四个部分第一部分是自由贸易已死和美国优先第二部分是特朗普发起芯片战争后呢我们来回顾一下中美两国这个战果如何第三部分是特朗普交易下的半导体在上周三特朗普当选美国总统以后呢可以说全球席卷特朗普交易那在特朗普交易下这个半导体表现怎么样呢一会儿我们就来聊一聊 第四部分就是中国AI的追赶前景如何首先我们来看第一部分 上周三美国大选结果新鲜出炉特朗普再次当选了这个美国总统那么在特朗普上一届任期的时候呢他还是一个政治小白啊政治素人啊他的这个影响力呢可以说完全跟现在是不可以相比较的当时他的很多政令呢甚至是政令不出白宫啊但是在特朗普这个2.0时代呢他的影响力将大大的增强 他将成为史上最有权势的美国总统这次美国大选结果出来以后据说他将控制美国白宫、国会两院以及最高法院那相当于是美 ...