Investment Rating - The report maintains a long position on 9m30y straddles, indicating a bullish outlook on US interest rate volatility markets [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased gamma in the vanilla volatility market, with 1-month expiries rallying by 10-20 basis points [2]. - The expiry term structures have flattened, particularly influenced by strong labor market data, leading to a neutral stance on volatility calendars [14]. - The report notes that the right side of the vanilla volatility surface is trading rich compared to the left side, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][29]. Summary by Sections Vanilla Volatility - Gamma products are at the upper end of their ranges for 1-year lookbacks, indicating heightened volatility expectations [2]. - The current vanilla ATMF implied volatility shows significant variation across different maturities, with 1-month implied vol at 123.3 for 1-year tails [2]. - The implied daily basis point move for 1-year tails is recorded at 7.8, reflecting market expectations for interest rate movements [3]. Expiry and Tail Structures - The report indicates that expiry switches have flattened, particularly in the 1m/3m segments, due to strong economic indicators [14]. - Tail term structures have steepened, with notable inversion on 2y/5y tail switches, suggesting a premium for shorter maturities [21]. - The implied correlation metrics show that products with expiries greater than 6 months are pricing in higher correlations than realized over the past 3 months [31]. Implied vs. Realized Volatility - The report emphasizes that the surface is trading above parity on a 1-month implied/realized basis, indicating a rich valuation for short-dated curve vol [29]. - The implied volatility for various curves is trading rich compared to vanilla vol, with the 1-year implied curve vol percentile showing significant richness [42]. - The analysis of implied correlation versus realized correlation suggests that gamma products are trading cheap, particularly in the 2s30s and 5s30s curves [40].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [6]. Core Insights - The upcoming U.S. elections are expected to have significant implications for economic policies in Asia, as discussed by the Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research and the Chief Asia Economist [1]. Summary by Sections Stock Ratings - Morgan Stanley employs a relative rating system with categories such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated, and Underweight, which reflect the expected performance of stocks relative to their industry peers over the next 12-18 months [6][7]. - As of September 30, 2024, the distribution of stock ratings includes 38% Overweight, 46% Equal-weight, and 16% Underweight across a coverage universe of 3,740 stocks [6]. Analyst Industry Views - Analysts categorize their industry outlooks as Attractive, In-Line, or Cautious, indicating their expectations for performance relative to market benchmarks over the next 12-18 months [8].

Investment Rating - The clean tech industry in North America is rated as Attractive [3]. Core Viewpoints - The risks to clean energy spending from election outcomes are considered limited, with recommendations to buy stocks such as FSLR, BE, GEV, AES, and NEE on any election-related weakness [2]. - Full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is deemed highly unlikely, even in a Republican sweep scenario, due to bipartisan support for certain provisions that drive investment in domestic manufacturing [15][21]. - The demand for renewables is expected to grow, driven by new sources of electricity demand from various sectors, which will require an increased buildout of renewable generation [7][8]. Summary by Sections Election Implications - The IRA is likely to remain intact under any election outcome, with significant bipartisan support for tax credits that incentivize domestic manufacturing [15][21]. - The potential for targeted repeal efforts exists, but key provisions such as the domestic manufacturing tax credit (45X) are considered safe due to bipartisan backing [15][27]. Policy Scenarios - Under a unified Democratic government, implementation of current policies will continue as planned, while a divided government may see some delays or limitations in implementation [4]. - A Trump presidency could lead to higher tariffs on clean energy imports, particularly from China, which may benefit domestic manufacturers like FSLR [29][31]. Stock Recommendations - FSLR (Overweight | Price Target: $332) is viewed positively due to its status as a major beneficiary of the IRA, with a low risk of IRA repeal [9]. - GEV (Overweight | Price Target: $256) is expected to be relatively insulated from election outcomes, with potential benefits from increased natural gas production under a Trump administration [10]. - BE (Overweight | Price Target: $22) is seen as neutral to positive under either administration, with no significant changes expected regardless of the election outcome [11]. Renewable Developers - AES (Overweight | Price Target: $25) and NEE (Overweight | Price Target: $90) are positioned to outperform post-election, as the long-term growth outlook for renewables remains intact [13]. - The election outcome is anticipated to clear uncertainty, allowing investors to express views on the future of the IRA and renewables growth more directly [13].

所以大家都拼命的在甩货之前甩货所以就是从6月份之前他那个货只能6月份之前进6月份之后你就不能进了就是你必须要符合美国这种供应链6选4你才能进到美国来6月份之前你进的那些货要到甩月3号你要装上在这之前导致好多大公司他从6月份之前他就 从那个啥就是当时Cosell不是4月25号提出那个petition嘛就是然后就说是你们要你们要就是要加税了什么反倾销又是这个ADCD这块又要加上嘛所以他们就6月份之前从从东南亚那个四个国家就就把自己的那些库存全都转到美国本土这块来了所以说钱就是2亿之前就9月12号之前开这个2亿美国2亿之前然后就是价格的话就是包括这些就是不符合条件的这种 不符合他供链条件的组件也都是在就是大厂的组件基本上都还在两毛三两毛二就差不多但是开完二亿之后啊有个公司就开始砸盘了你知道吗有个公司叫润阳的嘛直接就就因为润阳他在美国他当时我不知道是什么原因他当时压了很多库存然后就是这部分库存就是不符合美国这种供链管理的要在12月3号之前装上嘛因为他大家销不出去了他就开始硬在卖 压低价格直接就降到一毛钱了知道吗就这一部分这种旧的普通话直接降到一毛钱对 降到一毛钱你就想这个力度很大的人家本来两毛二子卖的挺开心的大家都还 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [51]. Core Insights - The report discusses various tariff policy options, including potential increases in average tariff rates, which could lead to higher input costs across US industries [7][47]. - It highlights the potential economic implications of tariffs, indicating that tariffs aligned with Republican proposals could increase inflation by 0.9% while negatively impacting GDP growth by 1.4% [47][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of US-Mexico policy alignment, noting that Mexico exports primarily intermediate goods to the US, which enhances US competitiveness [20][23]. Summary by Sections Tariff Policy Options - A variety of tariff proposals have been suggested, including 10% universal tariffs and targeted tariffs, with legal challenges being a key uncertainty for implementation [47]. Economic Impacts - Tariffs could lead to a near-term acceleration in prices, with a significant drag on GDP growth expected [10][47]. - The report estimates that monthly job gains could drop by 50-70k if tariffs are imposed [47]. Regional Implications - For Mexico, a 10% tariff is unlikely to significantly impact trade flows but could boost nearshoring activities [48]. - In response to potential tariffs, China may impose tariffs and non-tariff measures but is expected to focus on supply chain diversification rather than significant sanctions on US enterprises [48]. - The report anticipates a negative shock of 30 basis points on European GDP due to lower trade from US tariffs [49].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for the tire industry, with a negative outlook on wholesale shipments and operating earnings [1][3]. Core Insights - The U.S. tire industry is experiencing a decline in wholesale shipments, with a recent drop of -3.6% year-over-year, marking a significant shift after a year of growth [1][4]. - Original Equipment (OE) shipments have decreased by -9.0% year-over-year, while consumer replacement tire shipments fell by -2.4% year-over-year, reflecting a broader trend of inventory alignment among manufacturers [1][4]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are rising, with the J.P. Morgan Tire Commodities Index showing a modest increase of +2.0%, while tire pricing remains flat [3][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Tire Prices - U.S. tire prices tracked flat month-over-month in August, with a year-over-year decline of -0.9% [4][6]. U.S. Light Vehicle Tire Shipments - Total light and commercial tire shipments fell -3.6% year-over-year in August, following a series of declines over the previous months [4][9]. U.S. Commercial Vehicle Tire Shipments - The report does not provide specific data on commercial vehicle tire shipments but indicates a general trend of softness in the market [1][4]. U.S. Vehicle Miles Driven - Vehicle miles driven increased by +0.6% year-over-year in July, slightly down from the previous month's +1.0% [4][21]. Raw Materials Price Trends - The weighted average cost of raw materials used in tire manufacturing rose by +2.0% month-over-month, driven by a +10.3% increase in natural rubber prices [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades cyclicals to Overweight (OW) versus defensives, specifically upgrading Financials to OW, downgrading Health Care to Equal Weight (EW), and downgrading Staples to Underweight (UW) [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The strength in the recent jobs report, with a payroll increase of 254K versus an estimate of 150K and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, supports a more cyclical investment approach [2][4]. - The bond market's reaction, with rising yields, indicates increased confidence in a soft landing for the economy, which is favorable for cyclical stocks [5][22]. - The report emphasizes a shift from defensive stocks to cyclicals based on valuation levels and the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts [8][9]. Summary by Sections Labor Market and Economic Data - The jobs report showed a significant payroll beat and a downward revision of the previous month's payroll number, indicating economic resilience [2][4]. - The correlation between equity returns and bond yields has turned positive, suggesting that strong economic data will benefit quality cyclicals [4][5]. Sector Adjustments - Financials are upgraded to OW due to expected M&A activity and improved earnings revisions, while Health Care is downgraded to EW and Staples to UW due to high valuations and weak earnings revisions [12][22]. - Utilities remain an OW as a defensive hedge with growth exposure [9][22]. Large vs. Small Caps - The report takes profits on large-cap stocks, moving to neutral on large versus small caps, as the risk-reward for large caps becomes less attractive amid a rate-cutting cycle [25][26]. - Small caps are expected to perform better due to improving sentiment and economic indicators, with a focus on quality within this segment [25][26]. Earnings Outlook - The consensus for 3Q '24 EPS is down 4% over the past three months, but a mid-single-digit beat rate is anticipated due to lowered expectations [30]. - Margins are projected to drive EPS growth, with a focus on operational efficiency as a key factor [31][30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies covered. Core Insights - Consumer sentiment is improving, with 35% of consumers expecting to spend more in the upcoming holiday season, resulting in a net spending outlook of +24%, significantly higher than the average of +16% since the survey began in 2020 [6][29]. - Price sensitivity among consumers when grocery shopping has decreased compared to 2022, with fewer consumers paying attention to prices (NET +49% vs. +58% in '22) [6][34]. - Key issues for the upcoming 2024 Presidential election include the economy (58%), immigration (36%), healthcare (34%), and taxes (32%), with a majority of voters believing the country is not headed in the right direction [6][14]. Summary by Sections Sentiment - Concerns over inflation remain high, with 63% of consumers worried about rising prices, while 48% are concerned about the political environment [8][10]. - Low-income consumers show increased concern about their ability to pay rent/mortgage, rising to 28% [8]. Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy remains elevated, with 40% expecting improvement in the next six months [19]. - The outlook for household finances is stable, with 47% expecting their finances to improve [20]. Spending Patterns - Consumers are likely to start spending earlier this holiday season, with a net spending outlook of +24% [6][29]. - The purchase of organic and premium products has increased, although they still trend net negative [6][34]. Grocery Shopping Trends - Consumers are less price sensitive when grocery shopping compared to 2022, with a notable decrease in attention to prices [6][34]. - A slight increase in consumers purchasing preferred brands has been observed [36]. 2024 Presidential Election - The economy remains the top concern for voters, followed by immigration and healthcare [14][16]. - A significant portion of voters believes that the current state of these issues is not favorable [16]. Household Savings Reserves - 26% of consumers report having no savings, while 33% have three months or less [27]. - Upper-income consumers have an average of ~7 months in savings compared to ~3 months for lower-income cohorts [27]. Engagement in Activities - Participation in out-of-home activities remains consistent, with a slight decrease in dining out [41]. - Online grocery shopping continues to trend positively, with 48% of consumers purchasing groceries online [42]. Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [43].

October 4, 2024 02:19 PM GMT M Update Oil Data Digest | Europe US Oil Supply and Demand US oil demand returned to positive YoY growth in July, rising by 440 kb/d on stronger summer demand for travel fuels. A hurricane and unplanned outages caused US refinery throughput to dip marginally. However, runs remained high vs historical levels, driving crude storage draws and product builds. Total US crude production stayed broadly flat in July, averaging an output of 13.2 mb/d. This is 95 kb/d lower than the July ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a healthy growth outlook for the US tax equity market in 2024, with expectations of a 15-20% year-over-year increase, reaching approximately $35 billion in total funding, up from around $30 billion in 2023 [2][3]. Core Insights - The US tax equity market is expected to experience strong growth in 2024, driven by a healthy appetite from traditional tax equity providers and large corporations, with a diversified approach to monetizing clean energy tax credits [2]. - The 2025 market is anticipated to be relatively flat due to permitting and interconnection challenges, but the pipeline for 2026 and 2027 remains robust [2]. - The upcoming US election and the revised Basel III proposal are not expected to materially impact the market, with projects including clauses to protect tax equity investors from potential tax code changes [2]. Summary by Sections Market Growth - The US tax equity market is projected to grow by 15-20% year-over-year in 2024, with total funding expected to reach nearly $35 billion [2]. - The growth is attributed to three main avenues for monetizing clean energy tax credits: traditional tax equity partnerships ($18-20 billion), hybrid tax equity partnerships ($10-12 billion), and pure tax credit transfers ($5-6 billion) [2]. Future Outlook - The 2025 tax equity market is expected to be flat due to project deployment caps from lengthy permitting and interconnection queues, although the appetite for tax equity remains strong [2]. - The pipeline for 2026 and 2027 is viewed positively, with expectations of slight upticks in wind and manufacturing facility credits [2]. Regulatory Environment - The report notes minimal election-related impacts for 2024 and 2025 projects, with ongoing revisions to the Basel III proposal expected to support renewable tax equity [2]. - The manufacturing tax credit transfer pricing remains strong, with expectations of stability in the residential solar tax equity asset class despite recent bankruptcies [2].