Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q3 2024 earnings call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a tone indicating that you have been placed in queue. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star, then two. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset befo ...

讲的这个专题的内容可能会超过半个小时应该会有大概40到45分钟左右那么今天的这个主要讲的一个内容的话题叫做美国大选及其后事影响的一些详解那么在这一次的这个一个讲的过程当中我们会分成这个六大部分跟大家做一个交流 第一呢就是当前大选的美国大选的一个最新的情况整理以及包括候选人的一些政策的主张的一些处理第二部分呢跟大家聊一下这个大选年普遍从历史周期来看货币跟财政等等的一些宏观政策导向是什么样的包括这一次货币跟财政政策到底跟以前有什么不一样哪些看点是值得我们去重点关注的或许也会对我们国内港A两地的资本上造成一些影响的 第三部分的我们开始就前两部分的更多的偏宏观一些后面几部分的我们更偏这个策略的一些结构问题来跟大家做交流第一个呢是关于大选年对于资产配置和资产价格的一些影响这个是一个偏这个大类资产相关的然后第四部分呢来看一下就是因为最近这一段时间我们看到整个一个大选的一个在选票上来说是很焦灼的之前的这个特朗普领先就是在他那个枪击案之后那个遭袭案之后呢这个有一度领先后来呢哈里斯上台之后呢 作为一个候选人之后呢又有一步又有又有再度领先然后从最新的这个民调来看呢似乎很焦灼啊不同的民调的结果可能还有点差别但是整体来看呢就是呃这个 ...

好 大家晚上好谢谢大家今天还来这个播入我们的更新我觉得半个月一次是一个可能我们自己给自己设定的一个频率不管市场上是不是有尤其是国内政策上有没有特别会改变商品路径的这些政策和基本面的变化我们每半个月都会来跟大家更新一下 也是对我们自己的一种自律跟现象观点我这边主要是讲两个方面这次一个是国内进入一个政策预期的大起大落或者可能是其实最后的政策可能既不能证实又不能证伪的一个阶段吧那么之后的话我们对需求怎么看那么其实我们现在更倚仗高频数据的 给我们的反馈因为政策层面看到的其实对四季度的支持应该是不在话下的但是对明年的支持仍然我想还是个问号这是个问号不是说大家都不知道是因为的确还没有完全的想明白制定好这些政策其中很大的一个变数就是美国大选的结果 我觉得市场因为在11月初也9月24号之后吧对中国的政策的关注度是首要的这个是完全可以理解但是因为9月27号之后美国大选的情形其实它的胜率的变化包括参议院的胜率的变化也是很剧烈的那么现在离大选只有15天的时间了那么海外已经应该说在 非常激烈的交易美国大选的结果已经两个礼拜了那么国内我觉得现在在国内的政策趋于平淡之后明显看到从上周四开始吧对美国大选的关注度以及市场定价对它的应该说进入 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Constellation Energy (CEG), Talen Energy (TLN), and Vistra (VST) with an "Overweight" (OW) rating for all three companies [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive sector view for IPPs, driven by structural tailwinds such as manufacturing onshoring, electrification trends, and data center development, which are expected to significantly increase power demand [1][2]. - The report anticipates that competitive market supply growth will not keep pace with this rising demand, allowing IPPs to capture outsized margins for an extended period [1]. - The demand for firm, carbon-free power is expected to surge, particularly benefiting nuclear power, which is seen as a unique and scarce offering that will command a premium [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Price Targets - CEG has a market cap of $88.14 billion, with a price target of $342 by December 2025 [3]. - TLN has a market cap of $10.22 billion, with a price target of $268 by December 2025 [3]. - VST has a market cap of $44.84 billion, with a price target of $178 by December 2025 [3]. Power Demand Growth - The report notes a significant increase in power demand forecasts, with a five-year outlook now at +4.7%, up from +2.6% [2][16]. - The growth is attributed to trends in onshoring, electrification, and data center expansion, with ERCOT estimating an additional +40,000 MW of load growth by 2030 [16]. Competitive Positioning - VST is positioned as the top pick due to its attractive ERCOT exposure and gas generation optionality [2]. - TLN is noted for its near pure-play PJM generation model, which offers high leverage to PJM pricing trends [8]. - CEG is recognized for its industry-leading nuclear fleet, which provides stability and growth visibility [9]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a blended EV/EBITDA multiple to establish price targets, with a firm multiple of 12.5x and a spot multiple of 6.0x [11]. - The valuation reflects high-quality cash flows and risk-adjusted future nuclear contracting upside [11]. Financial Outlook - CEG targets a +13% base EPS CAGR through 2030, with upside potential from nuclear contracting [9]. - TLN is expected to see significant EBITDA growth driven by its Susquehanna deal with Amazon [8]. - VST anticipates double-digit EBITDA growth, supported by its integrated retail business and nuclear exposure [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the U.S. Asset Management industry, but it highlights trends in fund flows and performance metrics that may influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The week ending October 16, 2024, saw outflows from equity funds (excluding ETFs) amounting to $6.0 billion, which is an increase from outflows of $4.7 billion the previous week. In contrast, fixed income funds experienced inflows of $2.5 billion, while money market funds had outflows of $13.7 billion, worsening from $10.2 billion the week prior [2][4]. - Domestic equity funds (excluding ETFs) faced redemptions of $5.0 billion, up from $3.8 billion the week before, indicating a trend of increasing investor withdrawal from domestic equities [2][4]. - The overall sales of equity funds (including ETFs) reached $23.6 billion, a significant improvement from $10.6 billion the previous week, suggesting a resurgence in equity ETF sales [2][4]. - The report notes that financials and technology sectors saw inflows of $0.9 billion and $0.3 billion respectively, while energy and telecom sectors experienced outflows of $0.9 billion and $0.7 billion [2][4]. - Asset manager fund returns were reported at 0.8% for the week, slightly below the S&P 500's return of 0.9%. Year-to-date returns for the fund companies tracked were 0.8%, compared to 1.4% for the market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Fund Flows - Equity funds (ex-ETFs) had outflows of $6.0 billion this week, compared to $4.7 billion the previous week. Domestic equity funds saw redemptions of $5.0 billion, while international/global equity funds had outflows of $1.0 billion [2][5]. - Fixed income funds (ex-ETFs) recorded inflows of $2.5 billion, while money market funds experienced outflows of $13.7 billion [2][5]. Sector Performance - Financials led sector inflows with $0.9 billion, followed by technology with $0.3 billion. Energy and telecom sectors faced the largest outflows [2][4]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that asset manager fund returns were up 0.8% for the week, while the S&P 500 returned 0.9%. Year-to-date returns for the funds tracked were 0.8%, with J.P. Morgan Funds leading at 1.6% returns [2][4].

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更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 桥水 Ray Dalio 解决债务光印钱很简单，但并非最优解决—— 我对于债务周期、中国政策、美国大选的看法 摘要 • 全球经济受到债务和货币政策、内部冲突、外部冲突以及气候变化等五大 主要力量的影响，这些因素相互交织，共同塑造了一个充满不确定性的动 态周期。 • 历史周期对于理解当前局势至关重要，通过研究帝国的兴衰，我们可以了 解权力转移和经济变迁的一般规律，并从中汲取经验教训，预见未来可能 出现的问题。 • 中国自 1984 年以来经历了一系列重要的发展节点，包括改革开放、融入 全球市场、基础设施建设和科技创新等，这些节点反映了其在全球经济中 的角色变化，并表明其正在从一个区域性大国向全球性领导者转变。 • 未来 10 到 20 年内，人类文明将面临气候变化、技术革命、人口老龄化以 及国际形势复杂化等重大挑战，需要各国共同努力，通过制定并落实有效 的政策来应对。 • 历史的因果关系模式可以帮助我们解读帝国的兴衰，例如，优质教育通常 会推动创新和科技发展，并最终反映在货币走势上，使其成为储备货币。 • 长期强盛的大国通常会经历内部和外部压力，这些压力 ...

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Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa North America United States Economics US Economic Notes Date 13 October 2024 What you need to know for the week ahead | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Figure 1: DB economic forecasts | 2024F Q4/Q4 | 2025F Q4/Q4 | 2026F Q4/Q4 | Brett Ryan \nSenior US Economist \n+1-212-250-6294 \nMatthew L ...