Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining. As you all know, this is the UBS Risk Takers fortnightly call. I'll be your host for the next half hour or so, just in case we haven't met before. Anders Olsson here from the FX hedge fund desk in London. If this is your first time joining the call, generally the format is we do a quick run through across our UBS trading desks, across cash and options. And we'll start with the G10. Cash, we'll move on to G10 Ball, and then we'll do EM after we cover all the deve ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Global Economic Forecast Database UBS forecasts - changes this week Economics Global Latest global economic forecasts All UBS economic forecasts (>50 indicators for roughly 40 countries/regions) are accessible in Excel through our "Global Forecast Database" which can be found here. For ease of reference, we also circulate the Database tables, on a weekly basis, sorted by Indicator and Region (pg 6-70). A summary can be found on pg 4. Pg 5 shows forecast cha ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Economic Perspectives Fed & US outlook update Updating our rate call to reflect FOMC risks reassessment We expect three 25 bp rate cuts this year, one at each of the September, November and December FOMC meetings. We expect this to be well signaled in the September FOMC meeting materials and the Summary of Economic Projections. We expect Chair Powell will lay out a case for an orderly withdrawal of monetary policy restrictiveness in a speech at Jackson H ...

First Read Mabuchi Motor Results above estimates, but monitoring Europe/ US auto slowdown and cost increases Q: How did the results compare with expectations? Q2 (Apr-Jun) OP was ¥5.3bn, 15% above our forecast (¥4.6bn) and 20% above the consensus (¥4.4bn). The main reasons for the discrepancy versus our forecast were the weaker yen and higher than estimated volumes for the life & industrial products segment. In this segment, the health and medical areas performed well. The OP margin improved from 8.6% in Q1 ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Economic Perspectives July CPI recap: Ongoing progress Headline CPI +0.15%: 12-month inflation edges down to 2.9% The headline CPI increased 15bp (seasonally-adjusted) in July with 12-month CPI inflation edging down from 3.0% in June to 2.9% in July — its lowest level since May 2021. Energy prices were essentially unchanged, and both food prices (+16bp) and core prices (+17bp) increased at moderate paces that would not be out of line with their pre-pande ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab EMEA Economic Comment Poland: Stronger-than-expected Q2 rebound puts 3% GDP growth within reach Economics Poland Anna Zadornova Economist anna.zadornova@ubs.com +44-20-7567 4212 Strong Q2 GDP and revisions to past quarters push up our 2024 forecast to 3% Flash headline GDP data for Q2 came in substantially stronger than expected, at 3.2%y/ y (unadjusted), above 2.7%y/y Bloomberg consensus. Sequentially, GDP was up 1.5%q/ q, sa, vs 1%q/q consensus but with a ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab European Economic Perspectives Sweden: Core inflation down, Riksbank to cut next week This report has been prepared by UBS AG. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 8. Economics Riksbank to cut rates on 20 August despite upside surprise in headline inflation July headline inflation increased more than expected by us and consensus to 1.7% y/y (from 1.3% in Jun ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 August 2024 Equity Strategy Japan Japan Equity Strategy & Thematic Research Prime Minister Kishida to resign; what will the stock market impact be? A new LDP leader to be chosen in a presidential election in September On the morning of 14 August, it was reported that Prime Minister Kishida will not run for president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the next party election, and there was an official announcement to that effect at a press conference at 11:30AM (Prim ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Sector July US CPI: Both new and used vehicle prices down only slightly mom Japan Automobiles Kohei Takahashi Analyst kohei.takahashi@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6172 Moeka Xu Associate Analyst moeka.xu@ubs.com +81-3-5293 3000 New car prices and cost of ownership remain at high levels July US CPI data show new vehicle prices down 0.1% mom and down 1.1% yoy, while used car prices were down 1.1% mom and 10.9% yoy (Figures 2– ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Pigeon A better than expected recovery in China market share Q: How did the results compare with expectations? Q2 (April-June) OP came in at ¥3.1bn (+0.6% yoy), beating our forecast (¥2.89bn) by 7% and the consensus (¥2.82bn) by 10%. Compared to management's plans, OP was in line on a local currency basis, and including forex effects in China and the Lansinoh business, budget was exceeded by ¥430mn. In yen terms, sales rose across all regions and the squeeze o ...