Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agribusiness sector in Latin America, but it provides insights into price pressures and production forecasts for key commodities such as soybeans, corn, and cotton, indicating a cautious outlook for prices in the near term [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sideways view for grain prices over the next 18 months, driven by strong crop conditions in the US and Brazil, alongside modest increases in crop areas and productivity [2][3]. - For soybeans, Brazil's production forecast for 2023/24 is steady at 147.4 million tons, while the USDA maintains its estimates for the US at 153.0 million tons for the same period [3]. - Corn production in Brazil is slightly adjusted down to 115.6 million tons for 2023/24, but export forecasts have increased significantly, leading to a sharp decrease in ending stocks [4]. - Cotton production in Brazil is forecasted to rise slightly to 3.644 million tons, with global production estimates being revised downward, particularly for the US [5]. Soybean Summary - Brazil's soybean production for 2023/24 is estimated at 147.4 million tons, with a modest increase in acreage and productivity expected for 2024/25 [3][7]. - The USDA has raised the global soybean production forecast for 2024/25, primarily due to increased estimates from the US [3][7]. - Price pressures are anticipated due to strong crop conditions and a potential increase in US-China trade tensions [3][11]. Corn Summary - Brazil's corn production for 2023/24 is slightly reduced to 115.6 million tons, with an increase in export forecasts to 36.0 million tons [4][17]. - The USDA's estimates for US corn production remain unchanged, while global production forecasts have been slightly adjusted down due to lower EU estimates [4][16]. - The report indicates that US corn prices may face pressure in the short to medium term due to strong crop conditions [4][22]. Cotton Summary - Brazil's cotton production is forecasted to increase to 3.644 million tons for 2023/24, driven by higher productivity [5][27]. - The USDA has made minor cuts to US cotton production estimates, which has contributed to a tighter global trade flow [5][26]. - Futures prices for cotton have risen due to improved market conditions and alleviated recession concerns in the US [5][31].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Performance Food Group Company What's The Initial View On 4Q'24 Results? PFGC's 4Q'24 adj EPS $1.45 vs. UBSe $1.35; cons. $1.37; Acquiring Cheney Bros Altogether, we think PFGC's 4Q results reflect its ability to take market share, despite the increasingly challenging macro backdrop. It guided in line to slightly above where we believe market expectations were for adjusted EBITDA for FY'25 (based on our conversations with investors). Still, we belie ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" to Brinker International Inc [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong sales performance in F4Q with revenues of $1.21 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $1.16 billion, but notes a disappointing adjusted EBITDA of $141.8 million compared to the expected $144.7 million [2]. - The guidance for FY25 includes projected revenues of $4.55-4.62 billion, adjusted EPS of $4.35-4.75, and capital expenditures of $195-215 million, which are mixed compared to consensus expectations [2]. - The report anticipates a negative market reaction due to lower-than-expected earnings flow-through despite strong sales, as well as FY25 EPS guidance falling below investor expectations [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - F4Q adjusted EBITDA was $141.8 million, missing consensus of $144.7 million, with restaurant margins at 15.2% versus the expected 15.5% [2]. - Revenues for F4Q were $1.21 billion, surpassing the consensus of $1.16 billion [2]. - Adjusted EPS for F4Q was $1.61, below the consensus estimate of $1.72 [2]. Guidance and Projections - FY25 revenue guidance is set at $4.55-4.62 billion, compared to the consensus of $4.49 billion [2]. - Adjusted EPS guidance for FY25 is $4.35-4.75, below the consensus of $4.80 [2]. - Capital expenditures are projected at $195-215 million, slightly above the consensus of $193.1 million [2]. Market Expectations - The report suggests that the stock may react negatively due to the disappointing earnings flow-through and lower-than-expected EPS guidance for FY25 [2]. - The focus for the upcoming earnings call will likely be on traffic and sales trends, as well as further details on FY25 guidance [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Cemig is Neutral with a 12-month price target of R$10.40 per share [5][6][23]. Core Insights - Cemig reported net revenue ex-construction of R$8,177 million for 2Q24, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase, which aligns with UBS estimates and consensus [2][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was R$1,726 million, which is 5% lower year-over-year and 4% below UBS estimates, while net income increased by 36% year-over-year to R$1,689 million, primarily due to a provision reversal of R$584 million [2][3][10]. - The company plans to ramp up capital expenditures significantly, with a guidance of R$6.2 billion for 2024, following a capex of R$1.4 billion in 2Q24 [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The volume of energy billed in the distribution business increased by 3% year-over-year, driven by a 7% increase in the residential segment and a 3% increase in the industrial segment [3]. - Consolidated costs and expenses rose by 2% year-over-year, with notable increases in personnel costs (17%) and materials and third-party services costs (11%) [3][9]. - The company announced a dividend payment of R$1.4 billion, resulting in a 4.2% dividend yield based on the last close [2][3]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation of Cemig is based on a DCF FCFE model, with key assumptions including a long-term energy price of R$178/MWh and a cost of equity of 14.1% [5][6]. - Forecasts indicate a price appreciation of -6.3% and a dividend yield of 9.8%, leading to an expected stock return of 3.5% [11]

First Read Cardinal Health Inc First Take: Improved FY25 Guidance and LT Commitment to GMPD Conveyed Loaded Print: Improved FY25 Guide, Steady GMPD Outlook and More Aggressive Repos Should Buoy Sentiment Along with F4Q results, CAH tweaked preliminary FY25 financial expectations offered last quarter. Key guidance highlights include: (1) FY25 EPS range of $7.55-7.70 (prior: at least $7.50) on better Pharma EBIT growth of +1-3% ( prior: at least 1% - at midpoint adds ~$0.06); (2) lower interest and other (at ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the truck industry, with specific recommendations to prefer companies positioned for a truck downcycle, such as Knorr-Bremse and Traton, while advising a sell on Volvo due to its exposure to the deteriorating truck cycle [1]. Core Insights - The North American truck market shows a significant decline, with a net score of -8 in July, indicating a deeper deterioration in market conditions compared to previous months [1][14]. - In Europe, the net score improved to +2 in July, marking the first positive score in a year, although sustained momentum is necessary for optimism [1][73]. - The report highlights that while North America faces challenges with high inventory levels and declining orders, Europe is experiencing a slight recovery in carrier metrics, albeit from a low base [1][14][73]. North America Overview - The preliminary truck net orders in North America decreased by 3.7% month-over-month in July to 17.5k, down 13% year-over-year [1][42]. - Inventory levels are at near all-time highs, driven by macroeconomic factors and the upcoming US election, which is affecting orders [1][49]. - The backlog to build ratio has narrowed to 4.5 months, the lowest level since 2017, indicating potential production slowdowns [1][42]. Europe Overview - The European truck market's net score of +2 reflects an improvement from June, with carrier confidence showing positive signs for the first time since July 2022 [1][73]. - Despite a year-over-year decline of 8% in truck orders, registrations in the EU and UK increased by approximately 9% [1][73]. - The report suggests that production levels in Europe are expected to slow in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half due to normalized supply chains [1][73]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the truck crowding scores have deteriorated across the industry, with specific brands like Knorr-Bremse remaining positive compared to peers [1][3]. - The overall sentiment in the North American market is cautious, with macro indicators and truck rates contributing to the negative outlook [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading indicators, which have historically correlated with truck order developments [1][13][72].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Daily Brief Today's Research – August 13, 2024 Equities Americas US Biotechnology Small/Mid Cap - BHVN degrader combined Ph1 update. IMVT pipeline progressing. APLT regulatory de-risking ahead. (Ashwani Verma) BHVN: degrader fulsome SAD + MAD update in 2H24. IMVT: Bato Graves detailed data next, MG Ph3 in 1Q. APLT: Significant stock upside on regulatory de-risking. US Biotechnology Small/Mid Cap - LEGN Carvykti inflection around the corner. ACLX attracti ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab KeyCorp BNS stake supports KEY shares, but greater visibility needed to determine upside Capital injection solves for near term capital, earnings headwinds KEY shares handily outperformed today (+9.1% vs. -0.5% for the BKX) after announcing a $2.8bn strategic investment in the bank by Scotiabank (14.9% pro forma ownership) at a premium to recent its valuation, though retreated from early trading levels that neared the $17.17 price implied by the deal. We th ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies [18]. Core Insights - The most crowded longs as of August 9, 2024, include EXC, ES, XEL, ETR, and AES, while the most crowded shorts are SO, EVRG, LNT, NEE, and WEC [1]. - The report highlights a positive change in crowding scores for companies such as CNP, NI, ETR, ED, and FE, indicating increasing long interest, while EIX, SRE, LNT, D, and EVRG show the largest negative moves [3]. - Six companies are identified as benefiting from the power demand trade theme related to data centers: AES, CEG, NEE, NRG, PEG, and VST [6]. Summary by Sections Crowding Data - The report provides a detailed analysis of crowding scores, which indicate the percentage of eligible funds holding or shorting a stock. Scores typically range from -30 to +30, with higher positive scores indicating more long-crowded stocks [10]. - Historical crowding scores for various companies are presented, showing fluctuations over the past months, with notable scores for July 2024 [11]. Global Crowding Momentum - A three-factor "Crowding Momentum" score is introduced, suggesting that stocks that are long-crowded, becoming more long-crowded, and had weak recent performance are expected to perform well in the coming month. Stocks like NRG and CEG received positive scores, while WEC and OGE were rated negative [12][13]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology for the North America Utilities sector is primarily based on price-to-earnings ratios, with adjustments made for growth, regulatory environments, and clean energy transition opportunities [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" to OMV with a price target of €41.00, while the current price is €38.56 [8][20]. Core Insights - The risk of gas supply interruptions from Russia to Austria has increased, but OMV is better prepared than in 2022 due to diversified gas supply sources [2][4]. - Natural gas prices in Europe have risen approximately 30% recently, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with Russia supplying about 80% of Austria's gas imports [3]. - OMV has secured alternative gas supply routes, including 40TWh via Germany and Italy, 25TWh from Norway, and 20TWh from third-party suppliers, along with 36TWh of LNG from the GATE Terminal in Rotterdam [4]. - In the event of a gas delivery stop, the financial impact on OMV's midstream division is expected to be limited, with a potential €25 million impact on pre-tax earnings for every €5/MWh increase in spot prices, which is only 0.5% of the 2025 EBIT estimate [5]. - Conversely, upstream profits are projected to increase significantly, with a €205 million rise in E&P pre-tax earnings for the same price movement [5]. Financial Metrics - OMV's net earnings are projected to decrease from €4.394 billion in 2022 to €2.593 billion in 2023, with a gradual recovery to €2.417 billion by 2028 [7]. - The diluted EPS is expected to decline from €13.43 in 2022 to €7.92 in 2023, with a forecast of €7.38 by 2028 [7]. - The dividend per share is anticipated to increase from €2.80 in 2022 to €2.95 in 2023, reaching €3.77 by 2028 [7]. - The company's production is expected to decrease from 392 kboe/d in 2022 to 364 kboe/d in 2023, with a slight recovery to 346 kboe/d by 2028 [7]. Market Outlook - The forecast stock return is estimated at 14.4%, combining a price appreciation of 6.3% and a dividend yield of 8.0% [10]. - The market return assumption is set at 8.2%, indicating a forecast excess return of 6.2% [10].