Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Tupy SA with a price target of R$25.50 [3][16]. Core Insights - Tupy SA's revenue has been negatively impacted by lower volumes, particularly in the off-road segment abroad, but the company has demonstrated effective cost control, leading to an adjusted EBITDA increase of 14% compared to expectations and a margin expansion of 3 percentage points year-over-year [2][3]. - The significant decline in net income, which fell by 67% against expectations, is attributed to foreign exchange hedge mark-to-market expenses [2][3]. Financial Highlights - Revenue for Tupy SA is projected to be R$11.291 billion for 2024, a slight decrease from R$11.368 billion in 2023, with expected growth to R$12.518 billion in 2025 and R$13.835 billion in 2026 [5]. - The company's EBIT margin is expected to be 7.8% in 2024, improving to 8.7% in 2025 and 9.3% in 2026 [5]. - The net debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to be 1.2x for 2024, indicating a manageable level of debt relative to earnings [5]. Market Metrics - Tupy SA's market capitalization is approximately R$3.72 billion (US$0.68 billion), with an average daily trading volume of 573,000 shares [4]. - The stock price as of August 13, 2024, is R$25.79, slightly above the price target of R$25.50 [3][16]. Forecast Returns - The forecast price appreciation for Tupy SA is -1.1%, with a forecast dividend yield of 3.6%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 2.5% [6].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Alinma Bank SJSC ALINMA Post 2Q24: Higher growth guidance 2Q24 2% profit beat on better revenue, with updated guidance Alinma's 2Q24 net profit was 2% above Visible Alpha consensus, driven by a 2% beat on NII and a 3% beat on noninterest income, with asset quality broadly in line with expectations. On the call it improved guidance for loan growth (from mid to high teens), and cost of risk (from 65-75bps to 60-70bps), but lowered it for cost/income (from c30 ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Global Tobacco MSA settlement in Massachusetts Equities Global Tobacco Faham Baig Analyst faham.baig@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3966 $600m Massachusetts settlement could be paid through funds in escrow On Monday 12 August 2024, the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office (see here) said it had "reached a $600 million settlement with major tobacco manufacturers, marking the largest AGO resolution in recent history. In addition to the $600 million that wi ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Crest Nicholson Bellway walks; where does this leave shares? Bellway confirms it does not intend to make a firm offer for Crest Nicholson Following an extension of the offer period (on 8 August) to 20 August at the request of Crest Nicholson's Board, in order to fully conclude due diligence and the negotiation of definitive transaction documentation, Bellway today announced it does not intend to make a firm offer for Crest Nicholson (click here). ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Bezeq to Neutral with a new price target of NIS4.4, down from Buy and NIS6.1 [2][5][13] Core Viewpoints - Bezeq has a strong balance sheet with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 1.6x, compared to the sector average of 2.7x, and offers defensive returns with a projected 70% net profit payout in 2024, translating to a dividend yield of around 7% [2][4][10] - The mid-term outlook remains attractive with catalysts such as a decline in FTTH capex and cost reductions in satellite operations, although the risk premium has increased recently, leading to caution regarding the 2024 outlook [2][3][10] - Regulatory pressures are expected to continue impacting profitability, particularly concerning FTTH campaigns and fixed broadband rates, which may hinder revenue growth [3][10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Bezeq's revenue for 2024 is projected at NIS8.823 billion, reflecting a slight decline from previous estimates, with EBITDA expected to be around NIS3.719 billion [7][15] - The company anticipates a flat year-over-year adjusted EBITDA for 2024, with a forecasted slight miss at NIS3.7 billion [3][15] Dividend Policy - Bezeq plans to increase its net profit payout ratio by 10 percentage points annually from 70% in 2024 until it reaches 100% in 2027 [4][8][18] Valuation and Estimates - The report incorporates a higher WACC of 9.2% due to an increased risk premium, which has contributed to the reduction in price target [6][13] - The valuation reflects a DCF-derived price target of NIS4.4, with a dividend yield of approximately 7% for 2024, supported by a free cash flow yield of around 9% [6][10] Market Position and Outlook - Bezeq is positioned as Israel's largest telecommunications provider, with significant market share in mobile and pay-TV, but faces ongoing regulatory challenges that may limit growth [10][12] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% in free cash flow from 2024 to 2027, despite a projected dip in 2024 [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. with a revised 12-month price target of ¥2,730, down from ¥2,960 [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The merger of Matsumoto Kiyoshi Holdings and Cocokara Fine in October 2021 has led to improved gross margins and is expected to enhance profitability through better personnel allocation, store openings, and logistics optimization [3][4]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in foreign visitors to Japan, which will contribute to growth in same-store sales driven by differentiated products and industry consolidation initiatives [3][4]. Earnings Forecasts - For FY3/25, sales are expected to reach ¥1,054.6 billion with an operating profit (OP) of ¥77.4 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase. The OP margin is projected at 7.3% [4][7]. - In FY3/26, sales are forecasted to grow to ¥1,087.3 billion with an OP of ¥85.0 billion, marking a 10% increase from the previous year [4][7]. - Same-store sales growth is estimated at 1.0% year-over-year for FY3/25 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The revised price target of ¥2,730 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 21.5 times the FY3/25 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of ¥126.9 [5][6]. - The report indicates a market capitalization of ¥946 billion (approximately US$6.40 billion) and an average daily trading volume of 1,579,000 shares [6][8]. Financial Highlights - The company reported revenues of ¥951.2 billion and an operating profit of ¥62.3 billion for FY3/23, with a significant increase in sales projected for FY3/24 at ¥1,022.5 billion [7][9]. - The net profit for FY3/25 is expected to be around ¥52.1 billion, with a slight decrease from the previous estimate of ¥53.7 billion [4][9]. Profitability and Valuation Ratios - The operating profit margin is projected to be 7.3% for FY3/25, with an increase to 7.8% in FY3/26 [4][7]. - The report highlights a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.8% for FY3/25, indicating strong profitability [7][9]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The cash flow from operating activities is expected to be ¥73.6 billion for FY3/25, with a free cash flow (FCF) of ¥43.8 billion [11]. - Total assets are projected to be ¥717.2 billion for FY3/25, with total liabilities at ¥196.8 billion, indicating a healthy balance sheet [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for small businesses, with the NFIB small business optimism index rising 2.2 points to 93.7 in July, surpassing estimates and consensus expectations [2][3]. Core Insights - Small business optimism has improved for five consecutive months, although it remains below the long-term average of 98 for the 31st month in a row [2]. - The share of firms considering it a good time to expand is historically low at 5%, but expectations for economic improvement surged by 18 points [2][4]. - Employment expectations remain stable, with net plans to increase employment at 15% for three consecutive months [3]. - Inflation continues to be a significant concern, with 25% of businesses citing it as their biggest problem, up from 21% last month [4]. Summary by Sections Small Business Sentiment - The NFIB small business optimism index increased to 93.7, indicating a positive shift in sentiment [2]. - Expectations for higher real sales rose by 4 points to a net -9% [2]. Employment and Compensation - Net plans to increase employment remained steady at 15%, while the share of businesses unable to fill positions rose to 38% [3]. - The share of firms raising compensation dropped to 33%, with plans to increase compensation in the next three months declining to 18% [3]. Credit Conditions - Small businesses report that credit is harder to obtain, with a net reporting of 6% indicating tougher conditions [4]. - The share of households experiencing tighter credit conditions increased to 52%, although expectations for future credit conditions improved slightly [7]. Inflation Expectations - Medium-term inflation expectations fell to 2.3%, marking a series low, while one-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively [6]. - The perception of inflation uncertainty remained stable across all time horizons [6].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 Equities Japan Retail Sector July 2024 sales (announced 9 and 13 August): SEJ's same-store sales continue to seesaw Japan Retail Welcia HD (3141): Sales missed the company's plan again in July Monthly sales (end of month, FY2/25): Group same-store sales rose 0.3% yoy, with customer numbers down 1.0% yoy and sales per customer up 1.3% yoy. By category, product sales fell 2.4% yoy (pharmaceuticals -0.5%, hygiene and nursing care -8.8%, counselling cosmetics -4.2 ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 US Economic Data Core PPI perks up a little Headline producer prices edge up 0.1% in July, core rises 0.3% The headline Producer Price Index (PPI for final demand) increased 0.1% in July, in line with our expectations (0.1%) and a touch below consensus (0.2%). Prices for final demand goods climbed 0.6%, on the back of the 1.9% increase in energy prices. The volatile trade services weighed on the monthly gain, holding down the increase in headline PPI by 0.3 pp ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 First Read Japan Retail Sector Jiji Press report: Government to alter the consumption tax-exemption system – as has been expected; no surprises Summary On 13 August, Jiji Press reported that the government and current ruling party will proceed with a fundamental review of the consumption tax-exemption system for visitors to Japan. Specifically, the report said the system will change so that consumers get their tax refund after it is confirmed that tax-free pur ...