摩根士丹利 北京首都机场股份(00694):去年亏损远超预期,评级"减持" 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，北京首都机场(2.53,-0.04,-1.56%)股份(00694)预告，去年净亏损介乎6亿 至7.6亿元人民币，远多于市场预测的亏损2.16亿元人民币。该行估计，即使撇除税务影响，公司的税前亏损 仍介乎4.8亿至5.6亿元人民币，仍逊于预期。由此推算，公司去年第四季的税前亏损介乎1.7亿至2.5亿元人民 币，亏损同比有所扩大。大摩予北京首都机场股份目标价2.4港港元，评级"减持"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a "wait and see" strategy among automakers as they navigate a challenging market environment, with many companies preparing for significant product launches post-Chinese New Year (CNY) while monitoring demand trends closely [54]. - Weekly order trends from January 26 to February 1 show a decline in demand for major electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, with notable decreases in order volumes compared to previous weeks [2][3]. - The anticipated pre-CNY buying rush is expected to be less impactful this year, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) adopt a cautious approach until demand shows signs of recovery [54]. - Approximately 25 localities began accepting applications for trade-in subsidies in January, but the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to be clearer only after the CNY break [54]. Summary by Relevant Sections Order Trends - BYD: 41-42k orders (down 8% week-over-week, down 41% month-over-month) [2] - NIO: 3.9-4.1k orders (down 5% week-over-week, down 49% month-over-month) [2] - XPeng: 7.5-7.7k orders (down 9% week-over-week, down 15% month-over-month) [2] - Tesla China: 9.5-9.7k orders (down 3% week-over-week, down 4% month-over-month) [2] - Aito: 5.2-5.4k orders (down 7% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] - Geely Galaxy: 15-15.2k orders (down 6% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] Market Environment - The report highlights that despite some seasonal promotions, the overall market remains tough, leading to a cautious outlook from manufacturers [54]. - The report suggests that the industry is in a transitional phase, with companies waiting for clearer signals of demand recovery before making significant moves [54].

中国金融业 | Asia Pacific 2026年展望：逐步回归正循环 我们预计中国金融行业在2025年触底后，将重新进入正循环 发展，表现为新贷款和金融资产收益率逐步回升，高风险金 融资产继续有序消化，信用成本保持稳定，资本市场活跃。 本翻译报告仅供参考之便，摘自以英文发表的原版研究报告。如果翻译与原版研 究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准。原版研究报告可在此 处查看：China Financials: 2026 Outlook: Gradually back to a positive loop (11 Jan 2026)。 January 19, 2026 01:54 AM GMT 我们预计2026年将是一个企稳之年，中国金融股将受益于多重有利趋势，包括： 1) 名义GDP增速较2025年整体平稳并有所提高（根据我们经济团队的预测）；2) 政策支持继续从信贷转向财政，进一步降低长期信用风险；3) 存量金融风险稳步 消化，新风险形成下降；4) 对贷款增长和定价的政策干预减少，体现为淡化M2和 社融目标增速； 5) 政策波动性降低。上述因素将为金融业创造有利环境，降低风 险溢价，并支持金融 ...

Investment Rating - The aerospace technology industry is rated as attractive for 2026, with Rocket Lab (RKLB) and MDA upgraded from Equal Weight (EW) to Overweight (OW), while Iridium Communications (IRDM) is downgraded from OW to EW [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The aerospace industry is expected to continue benefiting from favorable trends that drove strong performance in 2025, including increased launch frequency, new product introductions, policy support, and market maturation [3][8]. - The report highlights significant growth in the space industry, with record launch activities in 2025, including over 315 successful launches, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government contracts and the integration of aerospace and defense markets, particularly in light of geopolitical dynamics and the U.S. government's support for commercial solutions [3][8][11]. Summary by Sections Launch Providers - Rocket Lab (RKLB) is expected to increase its launch frequency from 21 to 28 missions in 2026, with a target price (PT) raised from $67 to $105 due to recent contract wins [9][45]. - Firefly Aerospace (FLY) plans to launch its Alpha rocket in 2026, with a PT increase from $27 to $33, reflecting improved market conditions and expectations for increased launch frequency [9][38]. Aerospace Services - Iridium Communications (IRDM) has been downgraded to EW with a PT reduction from $37 to $24 due to increased competition and strategic shifts following the SpaceX-Echostar spectrum deal [10][62]. - Viasat (VSAT) has seen a significant stock increase of approximately 305% in 2025, driven by successful satellite launches and improved investor confidence in its defense business [57]. Key Trends - Direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity is expected to mature in 2026, with several new services anticipated to launch, including IRDM's NTN Direct [13]. - The report notes the potential for significant government contracts related to missile defense systems, with MDA upgraded to OW and a PT increase from $32 to $46 due to its favorable positioning in this market [11][16]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional satellite communication providers like IRDM and GOGO due to emerging competitors like Starlink [58][62]. - The aerospace industry is characterized by a mix of established players and new entrants, with varying performance based on specific market segments and competitive pressures [9][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on humanoid robots, although it acknowledges that the industry is still in its early stages and that scaling production will take time [4]. Core Insights - The survey indicates a strong willingness to adopt humanoid robots, with 62% of respondents likely to deploy them in the next three years, suggesting significant potential [9][18]. - However, only 23% of respondents are satisfied with current humanoid robot offerings, highlighting a need for improvements in flexibility, functionality, and pricing [9][66]. - The report emphasizes that the adoption of humanoid robots is expected to accelerate in 2026 and beyond, supported by new models and government incentives [4][41]. Summary by Sections Adoption Intent - 62% of surveyed organizations plan to deploy humanoid robots or significant projects within the next three years, with initial deployments expected to be small [25][32]. - The most likely use cases for humanoid robots include logistics, warehousing, manufacturing, and customer service, aimed at improving productivity and reducing labor costs [25][54]. Product Readiness - Satisfaction with current humanoid robot performance is mixed, with only 23% expressing satisfaction, indicating substantial room for improvement [66][72]. - Key barriers to adoption include limited functionality, high upfront costs, and integration challenges with existing systems [72][79]. Market Dynamics - Unitree is identified as the most actively engaged brand among potential adopters, followed by Deep Robotics and UBTECH [85][87]. - The report notes that brand visibility and media exposure are likely to influence initial adoption decisions, with Unitree leading in brand recognition [97]. Employment Impact - The survey predicts that approximately 11% of jobs may be replaced by robots within the next five years, increasing to 28% over the next ten years [26][61]. Future Expectations - Respondents expect humanoid robots to perform specific tasks rather than general functions, with a strong emphasis on human-robot collaboration and IoT integration as desired future capabilities [71][81].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the memory sector, particularly in DRAM and NAND markets, driven by AI demand and expected price increases [1][2]. Core Insights - The memory industry is experiencing a capacity-constrained cycle, with order visibility extending significantly due to AI-driven demand. The risk lies more in execution and transformation rather than demand itself [1]. - A steeper price increase trend is anticipated, with DRAM, HBM, and NAND prices expected to rise rapidly. Innovations and architectural redesigns are enhancing memory efficiency, thereby lowering economic barriers for adoption and expanding the total addressable market for AI [2]. - The bottleneck in memory is becoming a critical challenge, with AI inference demanding significantly more memory capacity and performance than previous models. This shift is expected to drive substantial growth in DRAM and NAND demand [1][27]. Summary by Sections Memory Pricing and Demand - The report forecasts a steep upward cycle in memory pricing, with DRAM and NAND prices expected to increase significantly due to strong AI infrastructure demand. The analysis suggests that pure text AI inference could account for 35% of global DRAM supply and 92% of NAND supply by 2026 [2][39]. - Current supply chain dynamics indicate a tightening of inventory levels, necessitating accelerated capital expenditures, particularly in DRAM, with expectations of substantial greenfield expansions starting in 2027 [2][43]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights specific companies as favorable investment targets, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron in the DRAM space, and traditional memory manufacturers like Winbond. It also points to semiconductor equipment firms benefiting from increased capital expenditures [3][11]. - The focus is on companies that are positioned to benefit from the memory bottleneck, particularly those with strong pricing power in DRAM and NAND markets [3][8]. AI and Memory Demand - The transition from generative AI to agentic AI is expected to significantly increase memory requirements, as these systems demand higher memory capacity for context processing and continuous learning. This shift is anticipated to create a larger market for memory products [26][27]. - The report emphasizes that memory is becoming a critical bottleneck in AI development, with the need for high-bandwidth memory increasing as AI models scale up in complexity and capability [22][26]. Future Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the memory market is entering a phase of significant price inflation, driven by major suppliers reallocating capacity to high-margin server DRAM and HBM to meet AI demand. This has led to a seller's market characterized by high prices and limited supply [43][44]. - The anticipated price increases for DRAM and NAND are projected to be substantial, with quarterly increases expected to range from 50% to 85% depending on the product segment and customer agreements [44][45].

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session will release two important documents regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan, with the first public announcement on October 23 and a more detailed proposal on October 27[3] - The public announcement is expected to outline key tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on economic growth, structural reforms, social governance, ecological protection, and improving people's livelihoods[3] - The policy tone is anticipated to be balanced, with a low likelihood of significant surprises for the market[8] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December will set the growth target for 2026, likely maintaining a target around 5% to balance short-term employment stability and long-term GDP growth goals[13] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will include specific quantitative targets for GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization rate, carbon emissions, and social welfare, to be announced in March 2026[11] - The overall economic strategy will continue to emphasize supply-side reforms while gradually improving the social security system[8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - During the "Golden Week" holiday, daily travel and total spending increased by 1.6% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a 13% decline in per capita daily spending[12] - Retail sales for key retail and catering enterprises grew by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3.4% growth rate in August[14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pop Mart (09992) is upgraded to "Overweight" by Morgan Stanley [1] Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart from HKD 224 to HKD 302, reflecting a 35% increase [1] - The report emphasizes that Pop Mart's diverse intellectual property and operational capabilities will drive sustainable growth [1] - Although the growth momentum for 2025 may be fully reflected, the long-term growth potential remains underappreciated [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been increased by 6%, 15%, and 21% respectively, indicating a clearer growth path in North America and Europe [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291) with a target price of HKD 34 [1] Core Insights - China Resources Beer achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point [1] - The company is implementing "Three Precision" initiatives to further reduce operating costs [1] - The management anticipates pressure on the white liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] Sales Performance by Product - Heineken continues to perform strongly with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have seen over 50% year-on-year growth - Snow Beer Pure Draft experienced a slight single-digit decline in sales year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Region - The company highlighted strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around the Shenzhen area - It is expected that East China and South China will become key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [1] Sales Performance by Channel - The management noted that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [1] Capital Expenditure Plans - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - In 2025, further investments are planned in maintenance, production line transformation, and the white liquor business - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] Financial Assumptions - The report uses a discounted cash flow method with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3%, derived from a 3% risk-free rate and a 9.1% risk premium, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [5]. Core Insights - The United States and Mexico are negotiating a trade deal to remove the 50% tariff on steel imports, allowing Mexico to export tariff-free steel to the US up to a certain volume [1]. - The US was a net exporter of steel to Mexico in 2024, exporting approximately 4.78 million tons while importing around 3.51 million tons [4]. - The potential shift to a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system for Mexico could negatively impact long steel producers, as Mexico is a net exporter of rebar and wire drawn products [3]. Summary by Sections Section 232 Overview - Section 232 was enacted in 2018, imposing a 25% tariff on all steel imports and 10% on aluminum, with exemptions granted to Canada, Mexico, and Australia [2]. - In early June 2025, President Trump reinstated a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, removing all prior exemptions [2]. Trade Dynamics - In 2024, the US imported approximately 154,000 tons of rebar from Mexico but exported only about 4,000 tons, indicating a significant trade imbalance in this category [4]. - The US imported around 233,000 tons of wire rod from Mexico while exporting just 45,000 tons, further highlighting the trade dynamics [4]. Company Ratings - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF.N): Equal-weight rating as of February 15, 2024, with a price of US$8.02 [56]. - Commercial Metals Company (CMC.N): Equal-weight rating as of December 19, 2024, with a price of US$50.67 [56]. - Nucor Corp (NUE.N): Overweight rating as of August 14, 2024, with a price of US$124.68 [56]. - Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD.O): Overweight rating as of March 7, 2025, with a price of US$133.81 [56]. - US Steel (X.N): Equal-weight rating as of February 3, 2025, with a price of US$53.89 [56].