摩根士丹利闭门会：中国宏观货币政策最新 解读，预期赤字率 4%或更高，增量 2 万亿 左右 摘要 •政治局会议声明释放积极信号，货币政策适度宽松，财政政策积极，强 调扩大内需，首次提及房地产和股市企稳，提振市场信心。 •明年经济工作重点任务排序变化：扩大内需排首位，科技和产业链投资 次之，显示政策思维框架转向内需驱动。 •摩根士丹利预测官方赤字率可能达 4%或更高，政策投向更倾斜于消费 品更新换代，广义财政总量增量保持 2 万亿左右，预计明年年中累计下 调 40 个基点的政策利率。 •超常规逆周期调节措施包括央企发行特别投资债券，财政和央行更紧密 配合，通过国债买卖、流动性注入工具等手段扩大内需。 •中国经济下行需周期性刺激政策与结构性改革并行，重点领域改革包括 转向更平衡的经济结构，这将是一个长期过程。 •处理房地产坏账需打破道德风险，通过政策干预和市场化手段相结合， 帮助市场出清，加强地方政府激励机制，确保财政可持续发展。 •宽松货币政策导致存款储蓄率上升，对消费刺激有限，带来资源配置效 率下降等副作用，监管层强调合理贷款增速和存量贷款再分配。 Q&A 最近发布的政治局会议声明和即将召开的中央经济工作会议 ...

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 16, 2024 10:37 PM GMT September 16 Soft China activity data; BoC's Macklem does not "want to see more slack" in the Canadian economy; USTs rally amid uncertainty over size of Fed cut; ECB's Lane favors gradual easing; GBP and AUD outperform; RRP below $250bn; DXY at 100.67 (-0.4%); US 10y at 3.18% (-3.4bp). • USD/CNH weakens 0.1% despite soft August China activity data with larger-than-expected declines in industrial production, retail sales, and fixed ass ...

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August 30, 2024 08:41 PM GMT cover, CCB bucked the trend, showing improvement in overdue and SML loans. M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

M Update Asia Quantitative Strategy | Asia Pacific August 26, 2024 12:09 PM GMT Positions of Active Long-only Managers in Asia/EM Our August 2024 positioning guide shows Semis remained the most crowded industry group, although active weights were trimmed to +3.0% with Financials and Brazil were most bought. India has now overtaken China as the largest market in active portfolios. Active GEM funds saw US$2.2bn in redemptions Key Takeaways US$2.2bn outflow from active GEM funds but US$254m inflow into GEM pas ...

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August 27, 2024 01:00 PM GMT Venture Vision: The Crypto > AI Pivot Bitcoin's price sits 6% below its 2021 high, yet venture funding for blockchain protocols is 75% lower. Investors have pivoted en masse towards funding AI start-ups. Will this encourage more mining-to-data centre conversion? Will the AI 'spray-and-pray' be any more likely to find product market fit? Blockchain has a product-market-fit and repeat-user problem - and venture investors know it. 'Self-custody' and 'Digital-Gold' arguments resonat ...

M Global Idea Thematics August 28, 2024 03:00 AM GMT What to Buy & Sell Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Edward Stanley Equity Strategist Edward.Stanley@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0840 Matias Ovrum Equity Strategist Matias.Ovrum@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9902 The market is fidgeting to find the "next big theme" despite the current ones (1) having attractive fundamentals, (2) performing in line with prior multi-year themes, (3) seeing upgrades to consensus estimates and (4) remaining reasonably ...

Morgan Stanley August 27, 2024 10:58 AM GMT North America a America North | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | Interest Rate Strategy Positions and Flows Report | | | | | | Weekly Market Positioning Data | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

M Update Payments and Processing | North America August 26, 2024 12:39 PM GMT Stock Performance Review: V/ MA, PYPL, AFRM Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC James E Faucette Equity Analyst James.Faucette@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5771 Shefali Tamaskar Research Associate Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4948 Meryl R Thomas, CFA Research Associate Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0774 Michael N Infante Equity Analyst Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4631 Antonio Jaramillo Research A ...