Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company [1] Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its revenue and profit forecasts for the company for the years 2025 to 2027 down by 1% and approximately 3% respectively [1] - The revenue forecast for the last quarter of the previous year has been adjusted from a high single-digit growth to a mid-single-digit growth, primarily due to macroeconomic slowdown and weak dining demand [1] - The firm anticipates that gradual economic recovery and pipeline expansion will support the company in achieving high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 2026 and 2027 [1] - The target price for the company has been slightly reduced from HKD 41 to HKD 40 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the potential for significant alpha generation through the enhanced MSSBT V2 model. Core Insights - The MSSBT V2 model has been developed to capture greater alpha by incorporating both inclusion and exclusion predictions for stocks in the southbound trading scheme, achieving a hit rate of 93% for exclusion predictions and an average absolute return of 25% through a two-way trading strategy [1][3][23]. - Southbound capital inflows reached a record high of $170 billion in 2025, significantly impacting the Hong Kong market and enhancing the liquidity and investor structure for Hong Kong-listed stocks [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that stocks removed from the southbound trading list experience a substantial decline in trading volume and liquidity, with an average daily trading volume drop of 44% and a 28% reduction in southbound ownership within 30 days post-exclusion [2][27][28]. Summary by Sections MSSBT V2 Model - The MSSBT V2 model enhances alpha generation capabilities by predicting both inclusion and exclusion of stocks, with a backtest showing a 93% hit rate for exclusion predictions and an average performance of 11% for predicted stocks [3][20]. - The model suggests that in the upcoming March 2026 review, 44 stocks are expected to be included and 25 excluded from the southbound trading list, recommending investors to build equal-weight positions based on these predictions [3][11][35]. Impact of Southbound Capital - Southbound capital inflows have been a major driver for the Hang Seng Composite Index, with a record net inflow of $170 billion in 2025, continuing into 2026 [1][3]. - The participation of southbound capital is increasingly important for liquidity supply and the investor holding structure of Hong Kong-listed stocks [1]. Historical Performance of Excluded Stocks - Analysis of 285 stocks excluded from the southbound trading list from 2020 to 2025 shows that these stocks typically experience a 44% decline in average daily trading volume and a 28% decrease in southbound ownership within 30 days after exclusion [2][27][28]. - Over 70% of excluded stocks show significant price declines, averaging an 11% drop in the 30 days prior to exclusion, indicating a clear negative impact on stock performance [16][31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks in the A-share market, suggesting a positive outlook for large-cap stocks in the short term [2][11]. Core Insights - Despite recent global market volatility, the liquidity in the Chinese market remains robust, supported by effective cooling measures in the A-share market and signs of long-term regulatory support in the Hong Kong market [1][2]. - The report highlights that the A-share sentiment index has returned to a normal range, indicating a decrease in speculative behavior and a more stable market environment [11][25]. - The report anticipates that large-cap stocks will outperform small-cap stocks as the relative performance of large-cap stocks has reached a five-year low, with attractive valuations and dividend yields expected to provide reassurance to investors [2][29]. Summary by Sections A-share Market - The risk of further cooling interventions in the A-share market is decreasing, with large-cap stocks expected to outperform small-cap stocks as the relative performance has dropped to a five-year low [2][11]. - The sentiment index for A-shares has quickly returned to a normal range, with the Morgan Stanley A-share sentiment index (MSASI) falling from an extreme level of 93% on January 12 to 65% on January 28 [11][12]. - The "national team" has sold approximately $77 billion to cool down the overheated market, which has offset all inflows since 2024 [12][25]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market is expected to outperform the A-share market in the short term, driven by geopolitical uncertainties that enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [2][35]. - Recent discussions about potential regulatory changes in Hong Kong, such as setting a market cap threshold for dual-listed IPOs, could improve market quality and attract more capital [36][38]. - The report notes that the liquidity in the Hong Kong market remains strong, supported by an active IPO market and a favorable exchange rate for the Renminbi against the US dollar [35][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Reduce" rating to Beijing Capital International Airport Co., Ltd. (00694) with a target price of HKD 2.4 [1] Core Insights - The company has forecasted a net loss ranging from RMB 600 million to RMB 760 million for the previous year, significantly exceeding market expectations of a loss of RMB 216 million [1] - Even excluding tax impacts, the estimated pre-tax loss is projected to be between RMB 480 million and RMB 560 million, which is still below expectations [1] - The estimated pre-tax loss for the fourth quarter of last year is between RMB 170 million and RMB 250 million, indicating a year-on-year increase in losses [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a "wait and see" strategy among automakers as they navigate a challenging market environment, with many companies preparing for significant product launches post-Chinese New Year (CNY) while monitoring demand trends closely [54]. - Weekly order trends from January 26 to February 1 show a decline in demand for major electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, with notable decreases in order volumes compared to previous weeks [2][3]. - The anticipated pre-CNY buying rush is expected to be less impactful this year, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) adopt a cautious approach until demand shows signs of recovery [54]. - Approximately 25 localities began accepting applications for trade-in subsidies in January, but the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to be clearer only after the CNY break [54]. Summary by Relevant Sections Order Trends - BYD: 41-42k orders (down 8% week-over-week, down 41% month-over-month) [2] - NIO: 3.9-4.1k orders (down 5% week-over-week, down 49% month-over-month) [2] - XPeng: 7.5-7.7k orders (down 9% week-over-week, down 15% month-over-month) [2] - Tesla China: 9.5-9.7k orders (down 3% week-over-week, down 4% month-over-month) [2] - Aito: 5.2-5.4k orders (down 7% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] - Geely Galaxy: 15-15.2k orders (down 6% week-over-week, down 32% month-over-month) [3] Market Environment - The report highlights that despite some seasonal promotions, the overall market remains tough, leading to a cautious outlook from manufacturers [54]. - The report suggests that the industry is in a transitional phase, with companies waiting for clearer signals of demand recovery before making significant moves [54].

Investment Rating - The industry outlook for the Chinese financial sector is rated as Attractive [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese financial industry is expected to enter a positive cycle in 2026 after hitting a low in 2025, characterized by a gradual recovery in new loans and financial asset yields, orderly digestion of high-risk financial assets, stable credit costs, and active capital markets [1][8]. - Key favorable trends for financial stocks in 2026 include stable nominal GDP growth, a shift in policy support from credit to fiscal measures, steady digestion of existing financial risks, reduced policy intervention in loan growth and pricing, and decreased policy volatility [1][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Environment - The macroeconomic team forecasts stable nominal GDP growth in 2026, slightly higher than in 2025, providing an optimal opportunity for financial sector investment [8]. - The shift in policy support from monetary to fiscal will help control financial risks and support financial asset yields in 2026 [8]. Financial Asset Yields - Financial asset yields are expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2026, driven by a slowdown in loan supply, a renewed focus on risk pricing, and alleviation of deflationary pressures [2][10]. - The banking sector's net interest margin is anticipated to bottom out in the first half of 2026 and rebound later due to delayed deposit repricing [12][13]. Growth in Financial Assets - Continuous strong growth in household financial assets, projected to maintain over 10% growth in 2026, will support robust growth in bank fee income and double-digit growth in insurance premiums [14][17]. - The capital market is expected to remain active, further enhancing the revenue streams for banks and insurance companies [14][19]. Credit Risk Management - The credit growth rate has slowed to 6%, with a significant reduction in new risk accumulation, indicating a shift from expansion to digestion and mitigation of financial risks [15][16]. - The banking system is expected to continue digesting high-risk financial assets, with non-performing loans being managed effectively [16]. Stock Recommendations - The insurance sector is favored, with Ping An being the top pick due to its structural growth potential and product innovation [2][17]. - In the banking sector, Bank of Ningbo is highlighted for its strong revenue and profit growth, while Minsheng Bank shows potential for recovery [2][18]. - For brokerage firms, CICC and Futu are recommended due to their market positions and growth prospects [2][19].

Investment Rating - The aerospace technology industry is rated as attractive for 2026, with Rocket Lab (RKLB) and MDA upgraded from Equal Weight (EW) to Overweight (OW), while Iridium Communications (IRDM) is downgraded from OW to EW [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The aerospace industry is expected to continue benefiting from favorable trends that drove strong performance in 2025, including increased launch frequency, new product introductions, policy support, and market maturation [3][8]. - The report highlights significant growth in the space industry, with record launch activities in 2025, including over 315 successful launches, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government contracts and the integration of aerospace and defense markets, particularly in light of geopolitical dynamics and the U.S. government's support for commercial solutions [3][8][11]. Summary by Sections Launch Providers - Rocket Lab (RKLB) is expected to increase its launch frequency from 21 to 28 missions in 2026, with a target price (PT) raised from $67 to $105 due to recent contract wins [9][45]. - Firefly Aerospace (FLY) plans to launch its Alpha rocket in 2026, with a PT increase from $27 to $33, reflecting improved market conditions and expectations for increased launch frequency [9][38]. Aerospace Services - Iridium Communications (IRDM) has been downgraded to EW with a PT reduction from $37 to $24 due to increased competition and strategic shifts following the SpaceX-Echostar spectrum deal [10][62]. - Viasat (VSAT) has seen a significant stock increase of approximately 305% in 2025, driven by successful satellite launches and improved investor confidence in its defense business [57]. Key Trends - Direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity is expected to mature in 2026, with several new services anticipated to launch, including IRDM's NTN Direct [13]. - The report notes the potential for significant government contracts related to missile defense systems, with MDA upgraded to OW and a PT increase from $32 to $46 due to its favorable positioning in this market [11][16]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional satellite communication providers like IRDM and GOGO due to emerging competitors like Starlink [58][62]. - The aerospace industry is characterized by a mix of established players and new entrants, with varying performance based on specific market segments and competitive pressures [9][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on humanoid robots, although it acknowledges that the industry is still in its early stages and that scaling production will take time [4]. Core Insights - The survey indicates a strong willingness to adopt humanoid robots, with 62% of respondents likely to deploy them in the next three years, suggesting significant potential [9][18]. - However, only 23% of respondents are satisfied with current humanoid robot offerings, highlighting a need for improvements in flexibility, functionality, and pricing [9][66]. - The report emphasizes that the adoption of humanoid robots is expected to accelerate in 2026 and beyond, supported by new models and government incentives [4][41]. Summary by Sections Adoption Intent - 62% of surveyed organizations plan to deploy humanoid robots or significant projects within the next three years, with initial deployments expected to be small [25][32]. - The most likely use cases for humanoid robots include logistics, warehousing, manufacturing, and customer service, aimed at improving productivity and reducing labor costs [25][54]. Product Readiness - Satisfaction with current humanoid robot performance is mixed, with only 23% expressing satisfaction, indicating substantial room for improvement [66][72]. - Key barriers to adoption include limited functionality, high upfront costs, and integration challenges with existing systems [72][79]. Market Dynamics - Unitree is identified as the most actively engaged brand among potential adopters, followed by Deep Robotics and UBTECH [85][87]. - The report notes that brand visibility and media exposure are likely to influence initial adoption decisions, with Unitree leading in brand recognition [97]. Employment Impact - The survey predicts that approximately 11% of jobs may be replaced by robots within the next five years, increasing to 28% over the next ten years [26][61]. Future Expectations - Respondents expect humanoid robots to perform specific tasks rather than general functions, with a strong emphasis on human-robot collaboration and IoT integration as desired future capabilities [71][81].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the memory sector, particularly in DRAM and NAND markets, driven by AI demand and expected price increases [1][2]. Core Insights - The memory industry is experiencing a capacity-constrained cycle, with order visibility extending significantly due to AI-driven demand. The risk lies more in execution and transformation rather than demand itself [1]. - A steeper price increase trend is anticipated, with DRAM, HBM, and NAND prices expected to rise rapidly. Innovations and architectural redesigns are enhancing memory efficiency, thereby lowering economic barriers for adoption and expanding the total addressable market for AI [2]. - The bottleneck in memory is becoming a critical challenge, with AI inference demanding significantly more memory capacity and performance than previous models. This shift is expected to drive substantial growth in DRAM and NAND demand [1][27]. Summary by Sections Memory Pricing and Demand - The report forecasts a steep upward cycle in memory pricing, with DRAM and NAND prices expected to increase significantly due to strong AI infrastructure demand. The analysis suggests that pure text AI inference could account for 35% of global DRAM supply and 92% of NAND supply by 2026 [2][39]. - Current supply chain dynamics indicate a tightening of inventory levels, necessitating accelerated capital expenditures, particularly in DRAM, with expectations of substantial greenfield expansions starting in 2027 [2][43]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights specific companies as favorable investment targets, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron in the DRAM space, and traditional memory manufacturers like Winbond. It also points to semiconductor equipment firms benefiting from increased capital expenditures [3][11]. - The focus is on companies that are positioned to benefit from the memory bottleneck, particularly those with strong pricing power in DRAM and NAND markets [3][8]. AI and Memory Demand - The transition from generative AI to agentic AI is expected to significantly increase memory requirements, as these systems demand higher memory capacity for context processing and continuous learning. This shift is anticipated to create a larger market for memory products [26][27]. - The report emphasizes that memory is becoming a critical bottleneck in AI development, with the need for high-bandwidth memory increasing as AI models scale up in complexity and capability [22][26]. Future Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the memory market is entering a phase of significant price inflation, driven by major suppliers reallocating capacity to high-margin server DRAM and HBM to meet AI demand. This has led to a seller's market characterized by high prices and limited supply [43][44]. - The anticipated price increases for DRAM and NAND are projected to be substantial, with quarterly increases expected to range from 50% to 85% depending on the product segment and customer agreements [44][45].

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session will release two important documents regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan, with the first public announcement on October 23 and a more detailed proposal on October 27[3] - The public announcement is expected to outline key tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on economic growth, structural reforms, social governance, ecological protection, and improving people's livelihoods[3] - The policy tone is anticipated to be balanced, with a low likelihood of significant surprises for the market[8] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December will set the growth target for 2026, likely maintaining a target around 5% to balance short-term employment stability and long-term GDP growth goals[13] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will include specific quantitative targets for GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization rate, carbon emissions, and social welfare, to be announced in March 2026[11] - The overall economic strategy will continue to emphasize supply-side reforms while gradually improving the social security system[8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - During the "Golden Week" holiday, daily travel and total spending increased by 1.6% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a 13% decline in per capita daily spending[12] - Retail sales for key retail and catering enterprises grew by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3.4% growth rate in August[14]