Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH February 14, 2025 03:20 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific $${}^{46},\{1\}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{11}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}{\frac{1}{12}}$$ DeepSeek、智驾、人形机器人等"小龙"使市场再度认识中 国供应链优势和创新力。然而,若地缘政治割裂和消费支持 不足的大环境不变,科创难以只身肩负引领经济走出通缩的 重任。 2025年为乙巳蛇年。在中国，蛇也被称为小龙。恰逢蛇年到来之际，杭州"六小 龙"（包括DeepSeek和宇树科技在内的初创企业）声名鹊起，重新点燃了投资者 对于中国供应链竞争力和科技创新的信心。这些优势在过去一段时间被忽视， ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH February 13, 2025 01:42 AM GMT 中国股票策略 | Asia Pacific Al势头推动市场反弹 步怎么走? 最近中国市场的反弹主要是由Al势头推动的，表明科技股表现 与其他股票之间出现较大分化。鉴于全球投资者仓位较轻, 我们预计这一势头将在短期内持续,但对贸易和科技相关风 险持谨慎态度。我们筛选了15只直接受益的股票标的。 近期恒生指数表现强劲，主要是由Al/科技相关个股在DeepSeek的支持下推 动 …… : · · 了在Al领域的重大进步,这些模型的性能可与谷歌、Open Al和Meta等领先公司的 模型相媲美,但成本却低得多。我们认为这是近期中国股市反弹的最大推动因 素。MSCI 中国指数和恒生指数均已于 1 月 13 日 (DeepSeek-R1 发布后的第一个交 易日）触底,此后一直在反弹。1月13日至2月7日期间，恒生指数上涨了12%，其 中恒生科技指数上涨了22%。MSCI 中国指数上涨 13%，其中 MSCI 中国IT 板块上 涨 24%。A 股市场略微落后，上证综指和沪深 1000 IT 板块分别上涨 5% ...

Macro Policy and Economic Forecast - The official deficit rate is expected to reach 4% or higher, with a fiscal stimulus increment of around 2 trillion RMB[1] - Policy focus shifts towards consumer goods renewal, with a predicted cumulative policy rate cut of 40 basis points by mid-next year[1] - Unconventional counter-cyclical measures include central enterprises issuing special investment bonds and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, injecting 2 trillion RMB in liquidity[5] Economic Priorities and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized over technology and industrial chain investments, signaling a shift towards an internal demand-driven framework[3] - Structural reforms are necessary to transition from an investment and real estate-centric economy to a more balanced structure, a process expected to be long-term[5] - Addressing real estate bad debts requires a combination of policy intervention and market-based mechanisms to clear the market and ensure fiscal sustainability[5] Financial and Insurance Sector Outlook - Loose monetary policy has led to increased deposit savings rates, limited consumption stimulation, and reduced resource allocation efficiency[8] - The insurance sector shows strong investment value, with significant growth in new business value and improved performance due to channel optimization and product structure enhancements[13] - Challenges for the insurance industry in 2025 include managing new business value growth and addressing market concerns over interest rates and opening red scenarios[14]

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 16, 2024 10:37 PM GMT September 16 Soft China activity data; BoC's Macklem does not "want to see more slack" in the Canadian economy; USTs rally amid uncertainty over size of Fed cut; ECB's Lane favors gradual easing; GBP and AUD outperform; RRP below $250bn; DXY at 100.67 (-0.4%); US 10y at 3.18% (-3.4bp). • USD/CNH weakens 0.1% despite soft August China activity data with larger-than-expected declines in industrial production, retail sales, and fixed ass ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" investment rating to the industry [1]. Core Insights - The headline Total Social Financing (TSF) growth moderated to approximately 8% year-on-year (YoY) in August, indicating a more rational loan extension which is expected to stabilize loan yields [1][2]. - Government bond issuance is anticipated to be a primary support for investment and consumption in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The report forecasts TSF growth to remain around 8% for 2024, with a potential decline below this level, which is viewed positively for the long-term sustainability of the financial system [1][2]. - Credit growth is expected to slow to approximately 7% in 2025, which will help close the gap between credit supply and demand, thereby supporting loan yields through more market-oriented pricing by banks [1]. Summary by Sections TSF Growth and Loan Dynamics - TSF growth moderated to 8.1% YoY in August, with RMB loan growth also at 8.1% YoY [2][3]. - The moderation in loan growth is attributed to efforts to reduce self-circulating loans and a rationalization of loan growth as banks focus on risk containment [1][3]. - Long-term corporate loans remain weak, influenced by policies on capacity control and fair competition rules [1]. Government Bonds and Investment Support - Government bond issuance increased by 15.8% YoY, providing significant support for investment and consumption [2][3]. - The report highlights that government bonds will likely be utilized to bolster investment and consumption in the latter half of 2024 [1]. Household and Corporate Deposits - Household deposit growth remained stable at 10.9% YoY in August, while corporate deposits declined by 3.9% YoY [1][11]. - The stability in household deposits is seen as a positive indicator for fee income rebound in the second half of 2024 [1]. Loan Types and Trends - Short-term household loans saw a significant decline of 52% YoY, while long-term household loans are experiencing a slower decline [1][11]. - The report notes that mortgages are gradually stabilizing, attributed to lower early repayments and some recovery in demand due to lower mortgage rates [1]. Valuation Comparisons - The report includes valuation comparisons for various Chinese banks, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, with several banks rated as Overweight (OW) [12][13].

August 30, 2024 08:41 PM GMT cover, CCB bucked the trend, showing improvement in overdue and SML loans. M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

M Update Asia Quantitative Strategy | Asia Pacific August 26, 2024 12:09 PM GMT Positions of Active Long-only Managers in Asia/EM Our August 2024 positioning guide shows Semis remained the most crowded industry group, although active weights were trimmed to +3.0% with Financials and Brazil were most bought. India has now overtaken China as the largest market in active portfolios. Active GEM funds saw US$2.2bn in redemptions Key Takeaways US$2.2bn outflow from active GEM funds but US$254m inflow into GEM pas ...

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Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a significant pivot in venture funding from blockchain protocols to AI start-ups, with blockchain funding down 75% while AI funding has doubled from 2022 lows [6][7] Core Report Insights - Bitcoin's price is 6% below its 2021 high and 15% below its all-time high, yet venture funding for blockchain protocols has dropped by 75% [6] - AI start-up funding now constitutes over 40% of all venture/growth funding, indicating a strong shift in investor focus [8] - AI funding has a stronger correlation to Bitcoin prices than blockchain funding, a trend only seen once before in 2020 [8] Blockchain Industry Analysis - Blockchain faces challenges with product-market fit and user engagement, with venture-backed investments unlikely to return significant funds compared to previous cycles [2] - Institutional interest in blockchain, driven by ETFs and the recent halving, has supported prices but not on-chain activity levels [6] AI Industry Analysis - AI start-ups have seen better adoption statistics compared to blockchain, but exit challenges remain in the private market [7] - AI funding has surged, with deal flow dominating other verticals, including blockchain-focused companies [8] Crypto Mining to AI Data Center Conversion - There is a growing opportunity for Bitcoin miners to convert mining facilities into AI data centers, with potential valuations up to $10/watt for powered shell conversions [11] - The conversion of a 150 MW crypto facility to an AI data center could yield significant financial benefits, with an indicative enterprise value of $411 million [13] Venture Funding Trends - Venture funding for AI start-ups has doubled from 2022 lows, aligning with the stock performance of key listed AI companies [7] - AI funding now makes up over 40% of all venture/growth funding, significantly outpacing other sectors [8] Market Performance and Correlations - AI funding shows a stronger correlation to Bitcoin prices than blockchain funding, a trend not seen since 2020 [8] - The report includes detailed correlation data between Bitcoin prices and AI/ML capital invested from 2014 to 2024 [9] Largest Deals and Funding Rounds - The report lists significant VC and PE deals, including Grafana Labs' $328 million 6th round and Borealis Biosciences' $150 million 1st round [17][18] - Notable AI-related deals include Story Protocol's $83 million 3rd round and Slingshot AI's $30 million 2nd round [17]

M Global Idea Thematics August 28, 2024 03:00 AM GMT What to Buy & Sell Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Edward Stanley Equity Strategist Edward.Stanley@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0840 Matias Ovrum Equity Strategist Matias.Ovrum@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9902 The market is fidgeting to find the "next big theme" despite the current ones (1) having attractive fundamentals, (2) performing in line with prior multi-year themes, (3) seeing upgrades to consensus estimates and (4) remaining reasonably ...