EchoTik TikTok Shop 2024 - 2025 墨西哥站点报告 TikTok Shop Market Report: Mexico(2024-2025） www.echotik.ai 选爆品找达人Q查店铺 看数据 数据统计时间：2024年1月-2025年1月 EchoTik官M EchoTik众号 为助力广大卖家快送抢占新商机，EchoTik快速上线西班牙站， 函西哥站数据，并准备了<TikTokShop2024-2025墨西哥 站点报告》，从TikTok现有数据、市场需况、人口分析、消费 分析等多方面，带领大家全方位解读市场情记， EchoTik NOTICES 特别声明 数据说明 1.统计周期；2024年1月到2025年1月 报告研究背景 背景说明/市场情况/数据说明 EchoTik h 1 t p n : / / a NTRODUCTION 引言 在全球社交电商高速发展的时代浪谢中，TikTok已然幅起为品 屏与消费者深度互动的重要阵地，TikTok不仅互塑了用户的消 费习惯。更开创了"发现式购物"的新模式，为品牌营销带来了 前所未有的机追与挑嵌， 从2021年开设第一个站点一一印尼站点 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economics** sector, particularly analyzing inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. Core Insights and Arguments - **Core CPI and PCE Inflation Forecasts**: A forecast of a **0.34% month-over-month increase** in core CPI for January is presented, leading to a **0.31% increase** in core PCE inflation, which is softer than the **0.50% increase** observed last January due to a slowdown in shelter inflation [1][5][7]. - **Tariff Impact**: The report discusses the potential impact of **10% tariffs on imports from China** and delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, suggesting that the overall effect on prices may be more minimal than anticipated by the market [1][8][9]. - **Consumer Inflation Expectations**: A significant jump in **1-year ahead consumer inflation expectations** was noted, rising from **3.3% to 4.3%**, with longer-term expectations also increasing slightly [12][13]. - **Wage Growth Trends**: Average hourly earnings rose by **0.5% month-over-month** in January, indicating some strength but not necessarily signaling reaccelerating wage inflation. The report highlights that wage growth dynamics may reflect a catch-up of wages for existing workers to higher market wages [10][11]. Additional Important Content - **Inflation Metrics**: The report provides detailed inflation forecasts for various metrics, including core CPI and core PCE, with projections indicating a gradual easing of inflation rates over the coming quarters [16]. - **Service Prices**: It is expected that service prices will slow down in the coming months, contributing to the overall inflation trend [17]. - **PPI and CPI Relationship**: The report emphasizes the relationship between PPI goods prices and potential increases in CPI goods prices, particularly as tariffs come into effect [22]. - **Market Sentiment**: The report notes that more firms are planning to raise prices than those planning to raise worker compensation, indicating a cautious outlook on inflationary pressures [29][32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding inflation trends and economic indicators as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and stakeholders in the US economy.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on the US economy, particularly focusing on trade with China, Canada, and Mexico [6][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Implementation**: Tariffs on imports from China have been implemented at a rate of 10%, while those on Canada and Mexico have been delayed. This aligns with baseline assumptions regarding trade policy [6][7]. 2. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts has been adjusted to only one anticipated cut in June 2025, influenced by the recent tariff announcements and inflation concerns [6][9]. 3. **Inflation Outlook**: The imposition of tariffs is expected to create upward pressure on inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts. The Fed's focus has shifted from labor market risks to inflation risks [9][10]. 4. **Quantitative Tightening (QT)**: The timeline for the end of QT has been pushed to June 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach due to the current economic environment [10]. 5. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The January payroll increase of 143,000 is viewed as suppressed by adverse weather conditions, indicating a softer labor market than previously thought [12][13]. 6. **Core CPI Projections**: Core CPI is projected to rise by 0.37% month-over-month in January, with annual increases expected at 3.2%. This is influenced by factors such as wildfires and residual seasonality [21][41]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Indicators**: The ISM manufacturing index has shown signs of stabilization, moving above 50 for the first time in nearly a year, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing [32]. 2. **Small Business Optimism**: The NFIB small business optimism index has returned to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting improved economic expectations among small firms [36]. 3. **Retail Sales Forecast**: A decrease of 0.1% in retail sales is expected for January, primarily due to a decline in auto sales, while control sales are anticipated to rise by 0.3% [47]. 4. **Impact of Wildfires**: The California wildfires are expected to have a temporary impact on goods prices, but this is largely accounted for in the current economic models [21][47]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and the implications of recent policy changes.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Indian economy, particularly high-frequency economic indicators for January 2025, indicating a mixed but gradually improving trend in economic activity [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary and Fiscal Policy**: The combination of monetary easing and increased fiscal spending is expected to support economic growth in the upcoming months [1][2]. - **High-Frequency Data Trends**: - GST collections reached INR 1.96 trillion, marking a 12.3% year-over-year growth, the highest in nine months, compared to 7.3% in December [6]. - Central government capital expenditure (capex) rose to INR 1.7 trillion in December, a 95.3% increase year-over-year, significantly higher than the average of INR 640 billion from April to November [6]. - Manufacturing PMI increased to a six-month high of 57.7 in January, driven by higher export orders, while services PMI decreased to 56.5, the lowest since November 2022 [6]. - Credit growth improved to 11.5% year-over-year as of January 10, up from 11.2% in December [6]. - Vehicle registrations for two-wheelers showed recovery, while passenger vehicle registrations slightly moderated year-over-year [6]. - The Naukri Job Index grew at a slower pace, influenced by base effects [6]. - Air passenger traffic remained robust, and consumer sentiment showed resilience, although power demand weakened to 2.5% year-over-year in January [6]. Important Trends to Monitor - **Government Spending**: Continuous monitoring of both revenue and capital expenditure trends is crucial [3]. - **Agricultural Output**: The winter crop (rabi) output will be tracked to assess food price volatility and rural demand strength [3]. - **Domestic Liquidity**: Observing domestic liquidity and financial conditions is essential for understanding economic stability [3]. - **External Environment**: The impact of trade and tariff developments, as well as the Federal Reserve's actions, will be significant [3]. Additional Insights - The government aims to maintain its capex at 3.1% of GDP for FY2026, while also investing in social infrastructure [2]. - The expected rate cut of 25 basis points on February 7 is anticipated to further stimulate growth [2]. - The strength in services exports is seen as a positive indicator for employment prospects [2]. Conclusion - The Indian economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by strong government spending and improving high-frequency indicators. Continuous monitoring of these trends will be essential for assessing future growth prospects and potential investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economics** sector, specifically analyzing trade data and its implications for the economy. Core Insights and Arguments - The **trade balance** in December widened significantly from **-$78.9 billion** to **-$98.4 billion**, attributed to increased imports and a decline in exports [1][4][6] - **Goods imports** rose by **4.1%**, while **goods exports** fell by **4.2%** [4][6] - A notable increase in imports was driven by **industrial supplies**, particularly **finished metal shapes** [7][8] - Approximately **$11.3 billion** of the total increase in goods imports came from **Switzerland**, which saw a rise from **-$3.9 billion** to **-$13.0 billion** in trade deficit [5][7] - The **goods trade deficit** with **Canada** increased from **-$5.0 billion** to **-$7.9 billion**, while the deficit with **Mexico** remained stable at **-$15.2 billion** [5] Potential Risks and Considerations - There is uncertainty regarding whether the strong imports are due to **front-loading** ahead of potential tariffs, although recent data does not clearly indicate this [6][8] - The **threat of tariffs** could lead to further widening of the trade deficit, particularly with Canada and Mexico, following a **30-day delay** in tariffs [10][11] - The report suggests that trade data may remain **volatile** in the coming months due to these tariff implications [10] Additional Important Information - The report highlights that **exports** also fell across various sectors, with the most significant declines in **autos** and **industrial supplies** [9] - The overall increase in imports from countries like **Australia** (+77% MoM) and **Hong Kong** (+284% MoM) suggests potential one-off disruptions, possibly related to seasonal adjustments [8] - The widening trade deficit is expected to exert downward pressure on **GDP growth** in Q1, although this may be offset by stronger investment or inventory levels [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home appliance category in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, where the market shows significant growth potential [9][14][27]. Core Insights - The home appliance market in Vietnam has a GMV of approximately $2.885 billion, ranking fourth among all categories, with home appliances accounting for only 4% of the total market share, indicating substantial room for growth [9][10][14]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for home appliances in Vietnam is reported at 8%, making it the fastest-growing category over the past year [14]. - The majority of sales in the home appliance category are driven by influencer marketing, with a notable increase in sales volume attributed to live-streaming and short video content [15][18]. Summary by Sections Chapter One: Vietnam Market Analysis - The home appliance category in Vietnam is currently underrepresented, with only 4% of the total GMV, suggesting a significant opportunity for market expansion [9][10]. - The top three categories in GMV are personal care and beauty, women's clothing, and men's clothing, with home appliances lagging behind [12][14]. - The sales trend for home appliances shows a peak GMV of $941 million, with a consistent growth trajectory [14][18]. Chapter Two: Philippines Market Analysis - The Philippines home appliance market has a GMV of approximately $241 million, ranking lower compared to other Southeast Asian markets [44][49]. - The home appliance category is experiencing steady growth, with a peak GMV of $1.168 million and a CAGR of 3% [49][50]. - The majority of sales are also driven by influencer marketing, with a stable contribution from live-streaming and video content [50][53]. Chapter Three: Thailand Market Analysis - The home appliance market in Thailand has a GMV of $235 million, ranking fifth among all categories [81][82]. - The market shows a stable growth trend, with a significant increase in GMV during seasonal promotions [85][86]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on practical and price-competitive products [89]. Chapter Four: Malaysia Market Analysis - The home appliance market in Malaysia has a GMV of approximately $78 million, accounting for 4% of the total market share [103][106]. - The market is experiencing stable growth, particularly during seasonal promotions, indicating a consistent demand for home appliances [106][107].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses trends in retail investor behavior in the context of the US and European markets, focusing on thematic investments, private markets, and money market funds. Core Themes and Insights 1. **Top Investment Themes for 2025**: - Innovation, Security/Defence, and Core beneficiaries of AI are the most popular themes among retail investors. Security/Defence has gained traction particularly in the US and Germany, with 36% of respondents indicating interest in this area [2][18][22]. - Preferred stocks in these themes include Rheinmetall in Europe and Fortinet in the US [2][7]. 2. **Private Markets Engagement**: - Retail investor engagement in private markets is increasing, with only 1-4% of wealth currently allocated to these assets. However, 20% of respondents made incremental investments in private markets over the last year, indicating a doubling of previous levels [3][41]. - Preferred investment vehicles for private markets include CVC and EQT in Europe, and Blackstone in the US [3][43]. 3. **Money Market Fund Trends**: - Money market funds (MMFs) have reached record highs with $9.6 trillion in assets under management (AuM). Despite this, inflows are expected to slow rather than reverse, as 72% of retail investors are open to reallocating funds to riskier assets under certain conditions [4][69][81]. - The survey indicates that 73% of retail investors with MMF exposure would consider moving to equities if certain conditions are met, such as a material decline in interest rates [4][82]. 4. **Demographic Insights**: - Younger investors, particularly Gen Z, show a higher propensity to invest in Defence/Security due to shifting geopolitical landscapes. This demographic is also more inclined to increase their investments in equities as life expectancy rises [14][32][58]. - The survey highlights a barbell investment approach among older generations, with increased allocations to both equities and MMFs [14][58]. 5. **Bancassurance Model Strength**: - The bancassurance model remains strong in Europe, with many retail investors using their primary banks for investments. This trend supports the growth of banks like KBC and Intesa [5][107]. Additional Important Insights - **Geographic Preferences**: Retail investors show a balanced interest in investing in Europe and the US, with a notable preference for global investments among higher-income European respondents [109][114]. - **Market Conditions Impacting Investment Decisions**: Factors such as improving personal finances, positive market momentum, and interest rate changes are significant motivators for retail investors considering reallocating their investments [87][100]. Conclusion - The findings from the survey indicate a shift in retail investor preferences towards thematic investments, particularly in innovation and security/defense, alongside a growing interest in private markets. The stability of money market funds remains a key consideration, with demographic trends influencing investment behaviors across different age groups.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Focus**: Economic outlook for 2025, including GDP growth, wage trends, inflation, monetary policy, and political risks Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The real GDP growth rate for FY2025 is projected to recover to 1.2%, exceeding the potential growth rate of approximately 0.8%. This is an improvement from the FY2024 estimate of 0.5%. The main drivers are expected to be sustained high wage increases supporting consumption, along with a gradual recovery in delayed capital investment [4][9][11]. 2. **Wage Increase Trends**: A significant wage increase of 5.1% was achieved in the 2024 spring labor negotiations, the highest in 33 years. For FY2025, a similar wage increase of around 5% is anticipated, driven by a genuine labor shortage and a shift in corporate wage increase awareness [19][21][25]. 3. **Inflation Outlook**: The inflation rate is expected to exceed 2% in the first half of 2025 but is projected to slow down in the latter half. However, due to stable service inflation, it is unlikely to fall significantly below the 2% target, remaining generally consistent with it [33][35][36]. 4. **Monetary Policy Normalization**: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to delay its next interest rate hike from January to March 2025, with subsequent hikes pushed from July to October. This cautious approach is influenced by domestic and international political uncertainties [47][48]. 5. **Political Risks**: The main risk factor is the tariff policy under the Trump administration, which could have significant secondary effects on the Japanese economy through reduced demand for Japanese goods due to a slowdown in the US and China. Additionally, domestic political instability could delay the passage of the FY2025 budget, negatively impacting corporate and consumer sentiment [17][18][18]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Business Cycle Transition**: Japan is expected to transition from a recovery phase to an expansion phase in 2025, following the US economy's lead with a lag of about six months [5][6]. 2. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The labor market is experiencing a structural change, with a significant increase in wage awareness among companies due to a genuine labor shortage. This is characterized as the "Second Lewis Turning Point," indicating a shift in labor supply dynamics [25][27]. 3. **Inflation Expectations**: Long-term inflation expectations among businesses are stabilizing around 2%, which could influence future wage negotiations and pricing strategies [43][44]. 4. **Service Price Dynamics**: The pass-through of labor costs to service prices is expected to occur gradually, impacting inflation rates over time [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Japanese economy as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the anticipated growth, wage trends, inflation expectations, and the potential risks posed by both domestic and international factors.

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: US Economy, North America * **Company**: Not specified, focus on broader economic analysis Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Report Preview**: The forecast for December payrolls is 150k, following November's 227k rise. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.3% and average hourly earnings (AHE) to rise 0.3% [2]. 2. **Labor Market Trends**: The labor market is on solid footing but experiencing slower employment growth and cooling overall conditions in 2024. However, it is not softening as rapidly as it appeared last summer [7]. 3. **Retail Payrolls**: A rebound in retail payrolls is crucial for the December forecast. After a decline in November, retail employment is expected to rise by 10k, similar to the pattern seen in 2023 [9]. 4. **Labor Supply Uncertainty**: Slower immigration, particularly since July and August, is likely impacting payrolls and the unemployment rate. The exact timing and impact are difficult to estimate [8]. 5. **Industry Breakdown**: The forecasted payroll changes by industry show a mix of growth and decline across various sectors. Goods-producing industries are expected to see a decline, while service-producing industries are expected to see growth [22]. 6. **Average Hourly Earnings**: Forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and remain stable at 4.0% on a 12-month basis, indicating continued growth in aggregate labor market income outpacing inflation [23]. 7. **Unemployment Rate**: Expected to increase slightly to 4.3% in December, continuing its gradual uptrend. The labor force participation rate is expected to remain stable [24]. Other Important Content * **Exhibits**: The document includes several exhibits providing detailed data and analysis on various aspects of the labor market, including payroll changes, retail payrolls, immigration, and unemployment rate trends [3, 10, 15, 16, 22, 28, 29]. * **Disclosures**: The document includes a disclosure section outlining important information about the research, including conflicts of interest, valuation methodology, and risks associated with the recommendations [33-42].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Perspectives** and the **Federal Reserve's monetary policy** outlook for 2024 and beyond [4][42]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Funds Rate Expectations**: - At the end of January, the market expected a reduction of 137 basis points (bps) in the funds rate for 2024. However, by April, this expectation dropped to just 28 bps following Q1 inflation data [5][18]. - The actual funds rate ended up being lower than the midpoint of these expectations, resulting in a realized cut of 100 bps by the FOMC [5][18]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Rate Cuts**: - From February to July, expectations for rate cuts remained below 100 bps, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment. The FOMC's actions exceeded market expectations, leading to a greater than anticipated reduction in the federal funds rate [13][19]. - By the end of September, the market adjusted expectations, adding nearly 100 bps back to the anticipated rate cuts due to a 50 bps cut announced in September and concerns about labor market slowdowns [19][20]. 3. **Future Projections**: - Looking into 2025, the market is pricing in slightly over one rate cut, indicating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [13][22]. - Chair Powell emphasized that future cuts will be data-driven rather than based on current forecasts, highlighting the unpredictable nature of economic conditions [22][49]. 4. **Monetary Policy Uncertainty**: - The call noted that monetary policy uncertainty remains elevated, with Chair Powell referencing a 2018 Fed staff analysis suggesting that policy should adapt based on economic conditions, particularly regarding tariffs [22][34]. Additional Important Content - **Inflation and Labor Market**: The discussions highlighted the interplay between inflation data and labor market conditions, which are critical in shaping the Fed's monetary policy decisions [5][22]. - **Historical Context**: The call provided a historical perspective on how market expectations for rate cuts have fluctuated significantly over short periods, illustrating the volatility in economic forecasting [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and the broader economic implications for 2024 and beyond.