未经授权引用或转发须承担法律责任及一切后果，并请务必阅读文后的免责声明 1 深证成指 12269.21 203.99 1.69 沪深 300 4134.14 -14.32 -0.35 中小 100 8021.05 -21.78 -0.27 每日晨报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|----------------------------|----------------------|-------------------------| | 市场研究部证券研究报告 | 国内市场 | 收盘点位 | 2024 年 9 \n涨跌 | 月 27 日 \n涨跌幅 % | | 国内市场综述 | 上证综指 | 3000.95 104.65 3.61 | | | | 大盘重上 点 | 深证成指 | 8916.65 378.92 4.44 | | | | 3000 周四（ 9 月 26 日）大盘震荡攀升，上涨延续。截至收 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the public utility sector [2]. Core Insights - The public utility sector has shown stable profitability, with 32 central enterprises achieving a total profit of 115.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase [1][4]. - The public utility index rose by 11.76% in the first half of 2024, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 10.87 percentage points [3][4]. - The overall revenue for the public utility sector decreased slightly by 1.74% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.47% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, 20 out of 32 central enterprises in the public utility sector saw their stock prices rise, while 12 experienced declines [1][3]. Financial Analysis - The public utility sector's total operating revenue was 1,086.05 billion yuan, with a slight decline, but net profit attributable to shareholders reached 107.04 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [4]. - The sector's asset-liability ratio slightly increased, but the overall asset-liability structure remained stable [4]. Subsector Performance - Thermal and hydropower sectors experienced slight revenue declines but maintained profit growth. The gas sector showed revenue and profit growth, while the solar and wind sectors faced profit declines due to reduced utilization hours [4][5][8]. - The nuclear power sector is expected to maintain stable performance with a consistent approval pace for new units [8]. Company Performance - Among 133 listed companies in the public utility sector, 116 were profitable, with 78 companies reporting year-on-year profit growth [5][7]. - Central enterprises in the public utility sector showed improved profitability, with a year-on-year increase in total profits and net asset return [7][8].

Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[2] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points, expected to lead to a 0.3 percentage point decrease in MLF rates and a 0.2-0.25 percentage point decrease in LPR and deposit rates[3] - The reduction in existing mortgage rates by around 0.5 percentage points is expected to benefit 50 million households, reducing annual interest expenses by approximately 150 billion yuan[4] Economic Growth Expectations - The combination of monetary policy measures is anticipated to enhance market confidence and economic growth expectations, with Q4 GDP growth expected to exceed that of Q3, aiming for around 5% for the year[3] - The central bank's actions are designed to support the real economy and stabilize financial markets, particularly in the context of high government bond supply[3] Stock Market Support - Introduction of structural monetary policy tools specifically for the stock market, including 500 billion yuan in securities and a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase program, aimed at boosting market confidence and addressing stock market challenges[4] - These measures are expected to significantly increase capital supply to the stock market, enhancing its ability to support the real economy[4] Real Estate Market Policies - The down payment ratio for second homes will be reduced from 25% to 15%, alongside extending financing policies for real estate companies until the end of 2026[4] - The reduction in mortgage rates is expected to alleviate the housing consumption burden on residents, thereby boosting consumer spending and confidence[5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the A-share innovative drug sector saw 4 stocks rise and 22 stocks fall last week, with notable gainers including Hai Chuang Pharmaceutical-U (19.67%) and Bai Jie Shen Zhou-U (0.66%), while major losers included Shou Yao Holdings-U (-11.78%) and Rong Chang Bio (-10.00%) [1]. - In terms of R&D progress, 3 innovative drugs/improved new drugs were approved for market last week, and 11 innovative drugs/improved new drugs submitted applications for market approval [1]. - The report emphasizes the rapid development of domestic HER3 ADCs, particularly the BL-B01D1 from Bai Li Tian Heng and SHR-A2009 from Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, both of which are in Phase II clinical trials for NSCLC indications [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share innovative drug sector experienced mixed performance, with a total of 4 stocks increasing and 22 decreasing in value last week [1]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector also showed similar trends, with 29 stocks rising and 16 falling [1]. Domestic R&D Progress - Three innovative drugs/improved new drugs were approved for market, while 11 submitted applications for approval [1]. - Notable approvals include the HER2 ADC drug from Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and a dual-function fusion protein for gastric cancer treatment [1]. Global R&D Progress - Several drugs received new indications, including Dupixent for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and Keytruda for advanced malignant pleural mesothelioma [1]. - The report mentions the significant clinical trial results for patritumab deruxtecan, which showed improved progression-free survival in NSCLC patients [3]. Corporate Collaborations - Bai Li Tian Heng entered a collaboration agreement with BMS for BL-B01D1, with an upfront payment of $800 million and a potential total deal value of $8.4 billion [3]. Investment and Financing - The report discusses ongoing investment trends and financing activities within the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the importance of strategic partnerships and funding for R&D advancements [1].

国防军工行业周度观察 上周国防军工行业指数表现 上周（2024.9.18-2024.9.20）国防军工（申万）板块下跌 0.78%，沪 深 300 指数上涨 1.32%，国防军工板块落后沪深 300 指数 2.1 个百分 点。和其他行业对比，国防军工行业本周排名申万行业涨幅第 30 位。 今年以来，国防军工板块累计下跌 19.15%，沪深 300 下跌 6.71%， 国防军工落后沪深 300 指数 12.44 个百分点。上周国防军工行业 5 个 子板块中，地面兵装、军工电子和航天装备板块上涨，其中地面兵装 上涨 1.97%，涨幅最大，航空装备和航海装备下跌，其中航海装备下 跌 5.38%，跌幅最大。 市场表现截至 2024.9.23 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expects 2 million low-emission passenger vehicles to be phased out by the end of the year as part of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy [2] - The NDRC has fully allocated 300 billion yuan in support for the "Two New" initiatives, with various local governments implementing detailed measures to promote vehicle replacement and scrapping policies [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) have shown significant growth, with retail sales reaching 1.027 million units in August, a month-on-month increase of 17% and a year-on-year increase of 43.2% [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 24, 2024, the retail volume of passenger cars in August was 1.905 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 10.8% [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.9%, surpassing 50% for two consecutive months [2] Investment Suggestions - The recent implementation of vehicle replacement and scrapping subsidy policies is expected to further stimulate demand in the NEV market in the fourth quarter [2] - The current period is traditionally strong for vehicle sales, suggesting an increase in domestic vehicle replacement demand [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry, indicating an expectation of favorable market performance in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The wind power equipment index decreased by 2.08% during the week of September 16-20, 2024, underperforming the broader market index by 1.69 percentage points [4][6]. - A total of 7 wind power projects were tendered this week, with a combined capacity of 1,017.5 MW, including 6 onshore projects and 1 offshore project [11]. - The average winning bid for wind turbine projects was 2,064.6 CNY/KW, with the highest bid reaching 2,395 CNY/KW for a specific project [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.32%, while the power equipment index fell by 0.37%, ranking 28th among 31 industry indices [4]. - The performance of the wind power equipment index was notably poor, with a decline of 2.08% [6]. 2. Tendering and Raw Material Prices - The total tendered capacity for wind power projects this week was 1,017.5 MW, with 712.65 MW of wind turbine capacity awarded [11]. - Key raw material prices included iron ore at 680 CNY/ton (down 2.0%), and copper and aluminum at 9,395 and 2,477 USD/ton, respectively, showing increases of 3.5% and 3.0% [15]. 3. Company and Industry Events - A significant tender for an 850 MW offshore wind project in Jiangsu was announced, which includes multiple offshore wind farms [22]. - The Guangdong provincial government is initiating a "Wind Action" program aimed at developing wind energy projects in rural areas, with a focus on local economic benefits [23].

行业研究 市场研究部 2024 年 9 月 23 日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the computer industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to remain stable relative to the market index in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - Lenovo has commenced production of AI servers in India to meet local and export market demands, alongside establishing an AI research lab in Bangalore, preparing for the anticipated growth in AI-enabled personal computers and devices [1]. - Over 300,000 enterprise clients have integrated with Tongyi's large model, indicating a significant transformation across various sectors through AI [1]. - The Beijing computing power interconnection and operation service platform has been officially launched, aimed at creating a comprehensive computing power hub to support the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and beyond [1][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for updating industrial equipment, targeting a networked transformation of 80% of large manufacturing enterprises by 2027 [5]. Summary by Sections Industry News Dynamics - Lenovo's AI server production in India and the establishment of an AI lab are strategic moves to capitalize on the growing AI market [1]. - The launch of the Beijing computing power platform is a significant step towards standardizing and optimizing computing power services [5]. - The Ministry's guidelines aim to enhance the industrial internet's application and promote the digital transformation of various sectors [5]. Investment Clues - The continuous iteration of domestic large models is expected to drive exponential growth in computing power demand, aligning with the government's push for a competitive digital industry cluster [6]. - The establishment of new intelligent computing centers and the focus on domestic IDC, servers, and algorithms are anticipated to benefit leading companies in these sectors [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as neutral [1]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 5.3%, ranking second among 30 industry indices by performance [6]. - Copper prices rose by 8.9%, while lithium prices fell by 1.6% during the same period [1]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw price increases of 2.0% and 0.8% respectively [12]. - Industrial metals showed mixed price movements, with copper increasing by 1.8% and lead decreasing by 1.7% [15]. - Rare metals experienced varied price changes, with lithium carbonate dropping by 0.5% and rare earth carbonate rising by 2.9% [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance for the week of September 16-22, 2024, was a 5.3% increase, placing it second among industry indices [6]. 2. Weekly Observation of Non-Ferrous Metals - The report highlights the performance of various metals, noting that copper and aluminum showed positive trends, while lithium and lead faced declines [12][15]. 3. Industry News Dynamics - A warning about global copper shortages was issued, emphasizing the need for new mines to address supply crises [22]. - The outlook for precious metals is bolstered by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold [23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Short-term expectations for gold remain strong due to recent interest rate cuts, while industrial metals require validation from economic data to resume upward trends [25]. - The report suggests that rare metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, lack fundamental catalysts for price increases, indicating potential trading risks [25]. 5. Major Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a table detailing earnings forecasts and valuations for leading companies in the sector, highlighting their market capitalizations and expected earnings per share [26].