市场研究部 2025 年 1 月 27 日 12 月规模以上工业利润总额同比转为增长 ——12 月工业利润数据点评 事件 12 月 27 日，国家统计局发布，2024 年全国规模以上工业企 业实现利润总额 74310.5 亿元，比上年下降 3.3%（按可比口径计 算）。 点评 在一揽子增量政策及时出台后，工业企业效益呈现持续恢复态 势。随着政策继续落地见效，预测 1-2 月工业利润同比保持增长。 12 月，全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 11.0%，比 11 月提高 18.3 个百分点，转降为增，比 2023 年 12 月低 5.8 个百 分点。 1-12 月，规上工业企业利润总额同比下降 3.3%，降幅比 1-11 月收窄 1.4 个百分点，降幅比 2023 年扩大 1.0 个百分点。其中， 制造业利润总额同比下降 3.9%，降幅比 1-11 月收窄 0.7 个百分点， 采矿业同比下降 10.0%，降幅比 1-11 月收窄 3.2 个百分点，电力 热力水的生产供应业同比增长 14.5%，比 1-11 月提高 3.6 个百分 点。 2024 年 12 月，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比由下降 7.3% 转 ...

国内市场综述 震荡走强 缩量上涨 周五（1 月 24 日）大盘震荡走强，缩量上涨。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3252.63 点，上涨 0.7%；深成指收 于 10292.73 点，上涨 1.15%；科创 50 上涨 0.9%；创业 板指上涨 1.36%，万得全 A 成交额共 12337 亿元，较前 一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个收涨，其中计算 机、传媒及钢铁涨幅居前，仅有食品饮料、房地产、电 力及公用事业小幅收跌。概念方面，Kimi、微软合作商 及 ChatGPT 等指数表现活跃。 | 1. 习近平：钢铁产业是我们国家的重要基础产业，实 | | --- | | 体经济是国民经济的根基所在 | 2. 国办印发《关于推动文化高质量发展的若干经济政 策》 3. 2024 年中国财政收入比上年增长 1.3% 4. 世界经济论坛高层人士表示对中国经济发展前景充 满信心 5. 日本央行加息 25 个基点 日货币政策利率达约 17 年 来最高水平 6. 全球重要经济数据发布 海外市场综述 美国三大股指小幅收跌，英伟达跌超 3% 周五（1 月 24 日），美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌 0.32%， ...

海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，英伟达涨超 3% 周四（2 月 6 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指 跌 0.28%，标普 500 指数涨 0.36%，纳指涨 0.51%。霍 尼韦尔国际跌超 5%，赛富时跌逾 4%，领跌道指。万得 美国科技七巨头指数涨 0.89%，英伟达涨超 3%，亚马逊 涨逾 1%。中概股普遍上涨，涂鸦智能涨超 25%，禾赛科 技涨逾 21%。 新闻精要 国内市场综述 量价齐升 行业普涨 周四（2 月 6 日）大盘量价齐升，行业普涨。截至收盘， 上证综指收于 3270.66 点，上涨 1.27%；深成指收于 10393.63 点，上涨 2.26%；科创 50 上涨 2.89%；创业 板指上涨 2.8%，万得全 A 成交额共 15548 亿元，较前 一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业全线收涨，其中电子、 综合及国防军工涨幅居前。概念方面，宇树机器人、 DeepSeek 及消费电子代工等指数表现活跃。 | 1. 央行等六部门拟规范供应链金融业务 | | | --- | --- | | 2. 春节假期消费市场亮点多、活力足 | | | 3. 商务部：消费市场平稳开局 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition as major manufacturers set ambitious sales targets for 2025, with BYD aiming for over 5 million units, a growth of at least 20% [1]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are becoming a significant growth driver, with companies like Geely targeting 1.5 million NEV sales, a nearly 70% increase from 2024 [1]. - The overall market for passenger vehicles in January saw a decline, with retail sales estimated at approximately 1.75 million units, down 14.6% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Targets for 2025 - BYD targets over 5 million units, a growth of at least 20% [1] - Geely aims for 2.71 million units, with NEV sales of 1.5 million, a nearly 70% increase [1] - Chery's target exceeds industry growth by 10-20 percentage points [1] - Ideal Auto aims for 700,000 units, while NIO targets 444,000 units, doubling their sales [1] - Other targets include 500,000 units for Leap Motor and 300,000 units for Xiaomi [1] January Sales Performance - BYD leads with 300,500 units sold in January, a 49% increase, with over 80% being NEVs [2] - Geely sold 267,000 units, a 24.9% year-on-year increase, with NEV sales up 84% [2] - Chery's sales reached 224,000 units, a 10.3% increase, with NEV sales soaring 172% [2] New Energy Vehicle Trends - The penetration rate of NEVs in January reached approximately 41.1%, with sales expected to hit 720,000 units [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards multi-brand strategies and innovations in supply chain integration, autonomous driving, and smart cockpit configurations [9]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a weak consolidation with a decrease in trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3213.62 points, down 0.89%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10225.87 points, down 0.77% [1][5][10] - Out of 30 sectors, 29 saw declines, with real estate, consumer services, and food and beverage sectors leading the losses, while only the communication sector saw a slight increase [1][10] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 1.1477 trillion yuan, which was a decrease compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 up 0.61%, and the Nasdaq up 1.28% [2][5] - Notable gains were seen in Nvidia and Microsoft, both rising over 4%, leading the Dow [2][5] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with Global Data dropping over 12% and Dingdong Maicai down over 5% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued the "Rural Comprehensive Revitalization Plan (2024-2027)", aiming for substantial progress in rural revitalization by 2027 [13] - A joint implementation plan was released by the Central Financial Office and six departments to promote long-term capital entering the market, focusing on increasing the investment ratio of commercial insurance funds and social security funds in A-shares [11][14] - The first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETFs was officially approved, with 12 products set to launch after the Spring Festival [19][20] - Three major tech companies in the U.S. announced a $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure, expected to create 100,000 jobs [22]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3250.6 points, down 0.06%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10156.07 points, down 1.33%. The ChiNext Index fell by 2.73% [1][5][10] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 12 sectors saw gains, with banking, electricity and utilities, and coal leading the increases, while communication, electronics, and retail sectors lagged [1][5][10] - The total trading volume across both markets was 112.76 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][5][10] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up 1.35%. Major tech stocks like Chevron and Apple rose over 2% [2][5] - Chinese concept stocks also saw a general increase, with Tuya Smart rising over 20% and XPeng Motors up over 8% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The State Council Tariff Commission announced that starting February 10, 2025, tariffs will be imposed on certain imported goods from the U.S., including a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery [3][13] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium-related items [3][14] - Google is under investigation by the market regulatory authority for suspected antitrust violations [3][15] Economic Data - China's January Caixin Manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.1, down from 50.5, marking the fourth consecutive month in the expansion zone [23] - The U.S. January ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.9, indicating expansion for the first time since October 2022 [23] - Eurozone January CPI preliminary year-on-year increase was 2.5%, slightly above expectations [23]

美国三大股指全线收涨，标普 500 创收盘历史新高 周四（1 月 23 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 0.92%，标普 500 指数涨 0.53%，纳指涨 0.22%。卡特彼 勒、波音涨超 2%，领涨道指。万得美国科技七巨头指 数涨 0.15%。中概股涨跌不一，好未来涨超 21%。 新闻精要 国内市场综述 冲高回落 走势分化 周四（1 月 23 日）大盘冲高回落，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3230.16 点，上涨 0.51%；深成指收 于 10176.17 点，下跌 0.49%；科创 50 下跌 0.95%；创 业板指下跌 0.37%，万得全 A 成交额共 13695 亿元，较 前一日明显上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 13 个收涨，其中银行、 综合金融及非银行金融涨幅居前，而电子、通信及国防 军工则跌幅较大。概念方面，保险精选、央企银行及金 特古等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 1. 证监会主席吴清：打通中长期资金入市的卡点堵点 2. 国家医保局：确保各统筹地区医保数据工作组全面 覆盖 3. 国家能源局修订分布式光伏发电开发建设管理办法 4. 美希望拥有 50%TikTok 股份，商 ...

Demographic Trends - By the end of 2024, China's total population is projected to be 1,408.28 million, with 857.98 million aged 16-59 and 310.31 million aged 60 and above, including 220.23 million aged 65 and older[2] - The birth rate has increased, with 9.54 million births in 2024, up by 520,000 from 2023, marking the first rise since 2017[3] - The death toll is expected to be 10.93 million in 2024, a decrease of 170,000 from 2023, contributing to a slower decline in total population[3] Urbanization Insights - The urban population is projected to reach 943.50 million by the end of 2024, an increase of 10.83 million from 2023, with an urbanization rate of 67.00%, up by 0.84 percentage points[8] - Urbanization has slowed significantly, with an average annual increase of 1.394 percentage points from 1996 to 2020, compared to just 0.84 percentage points in 2024[8] Economic Implications - The continuous decrease in birth and total population is expected to negatively impact consumption[9] - The aging population presents opportunities for the elderly care industry as the proportion of individuals aged 60 and above continues to rise[9] - The slowdown in urbanization may put pressure on the real estate sector, indicating potential challenges ahead[9]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3236.03 points, up by 0.28%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10101.1 points, up by 0.41% [1][5][9] - A total of 25 out of 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and retail trade leading the increases, while food and beverage, electronics, and defense industries faced declines [1][5][9] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.293 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][5][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq down by 0.89%, the S&P 500 down by 0.21%, and the Dow Jones down by 0.16% [2][5] - Major technology stocks fell significantly, with Apple dropping over 4%, Tesla over 3%, and Nvidia over 1% [2][5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.22% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The domestic chip industry is facing pressure from low-priced imports of mature process chips from the U.S., prompting concerns about unfair competition [12][6] - The Ministry of Commerce announced adjustments to the export control list for dual-use items based on actual conditions [13][6] - A national tax work conference emphasized the implementation of structural tax reduction policies to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand [14][6] - Reports indicate that Vanke may face restructuring as a related working group has fully intervened in the company [15][6]