Inflation Data - In January, the US CPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, marking a 24-month high since February 2023[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.6% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month, and increased by 3.3% year-on-year[3][7] - Food prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, while energy prices rose by 1.9% month-on-month and 1.0% year-on-year[3][7] Price Trends - Housing prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the CPI rise[4][8] - Transportation prices rose by 1.0% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, showing a notable increase compared to the previous month[3][7] - The prices of clothing and entertainment also saw increases of 0.9% and 1.2% month-on-month, respectively[3] Economic Implications - The January CPI data does not support a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, indicating a trend of increasing inflation[8][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is unlikely to constrain China's monetary policy, which retains significant flexibility[10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" [7] Core Viewpoints - The continuous rise in gold prices post-Spring Festival is attributed to multiple factors, including traditional consumption peaks and the popularity of themed gold jewelry [2] - The financial attributes of gold are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies and inflation expectations, with a projected extended rate cut cycle in 2025 [2][3] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1000 tons of gold annually, contributing to supply-demand imbalances and increasing gold demand [3] - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies are driving heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 14, 2025, gold prices have shown significant growth, with COMEX gold futures closing at $2968.5 per ounce and SHFE gold at 684.5 yuan per gram [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Gold is recommended as a unique asset class for investment portfolios due to its hedging properties, low correlation, and value storage capabilities [4] - The report suggests that while short-term technical corrections may occur, the long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish [4] Industry Insights - Gold mining company stocks are closely tied to gold prices and can exhibit greater volatility based on company performance [8]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a fluctuating rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3346.39 points, up 0.85%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10708.88 points, up 1.43% [1][8] - Among the 30 first-level industries, 27 saw an increase, with comprehensive finance, real estate, and computer sectors leading the gains, while non-ferrous metals, coal, and textile sectors faced significant declines [1][8] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 17119 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][8] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.03%, while Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with EHang Intelligent soaring over 21% [2] Key News Highlights - Multiple regions are accelerating the special bond storage work to revitalize idle land, with over 100 plots planned for recovery at a total price exceeding 260 billion [11] - The Ministry of Finance announced the continuation of preferential policies for cultural construction fees from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, allowing a 50% reduction on fees [15] - MSCI announced the results of its February index review, including the addition of eight stocks to the MSCI China Index and the removal of twenty others, effective after the market close on February 28 [16] Inflation Data - U.S. inflation unexpectedly rose in January, with the unadjusted CPI increasing by 3% year-on-year, above the expected 2.9%, and the adjusted CPI rising by 0.5% month-on-month [9][18]

国内市场综述 震荡整理 小幅收跌 周二（2 月 11 日）大盘震荡整理，小幅收跌。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3318.06 点，下跌 0.12%；深成指收 于 10557.62 点，下跌 0.69%；科创 50 下跌 1.19%；创 业板指下跌 1.43%，万得全 A 成交额共 16780 亿元，较 前一日略有下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 11 个上涨，其中综合 金融、传媒及银行涨幅居前，而房地产、电力设备及新 能源、国防军工则跌幅较大。概念方面，黄金珠宝、小 红书平台及网红经济等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，特斯拉跌超 6% 周二（2 月 11 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指涨 0.28%，标普 500 指数涨 0.03%，纳指跌 0.36%。。 万得美国科技七巨头指数跌 0.18%，特斯拉跌超 6%，苹 果涨逾 2%。中概股多数下跌，金山云跌逾 7%。 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 分析师：彭竑/钟哲元 登记编码：S1490520090001/ S1490523030001 邮箱：penghong@crsec.com.cn/ zhongzhey ...

国内市场综述 震荡攀升 连涨三日 周一（2 月 10 日）大盘震荡攀升，连涨三日。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3322.17 点，上涨 0.56%；深成指收 于 10631.25 点，上涨 0.52%；科创 50 上涨 1.76%；创 业板指上涨 0.44%，万得全 A 成交额共 17596 亿元，较 前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个上涨，其中计算 机、传媒及综合金融涨幅居前，仅有电力设备及新能源、 煤炭、电力及公用事业小幅收跌。概念方面，医保支付 改革、DeepSeek。拼多多合作商等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨近 1% 周一（2 月 10 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 0.38%，标普 500 指数涨 0.67%，纳指涨 0.98%。麦当劳 涨超 4%，耐克涨逾 3%，领涨道指。万得美国科技七巨 头指数涨 0.8%，英伟达涨超 2%，亚马逊涨逾 1%。中概 股普遍上涨，有道涨超 41%，知乎涨逾 15%。 市场研究部证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 11 日 新闻精要 1. 李强主持召开国务院常务会议 2. 春节假期重点领域消费品以旧换新销量 ...

宏观研究 市场研究部 2025 年 2 月 10 日 1 月 CPI 同比明显回升 ——1 月物价数据解读 事件 1 月食品价格同比由跌转涨。1 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.5%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月小幅回落后回升。其 中，食品价格同比上涨 0.4%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 0.9 个百分点； 非食品价格同比上涨 0.5%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 0.3 个百分点， 核心 CPI 同比涨 0.6%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 0.2 个百分点。消费 品价格同比上涨 0.1%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 0.3 个百分点，服务 价格同比涨 1.1%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 0.6 个百分点。1 月 CPI 同比涨幅提高，食品价格同比由跌转涨是主要原因。 1 月生鲜类食品价格环比涨幅较大。 鲜菜价格环比上涨 5.9%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 8.3 个百分点； 鲜果价格环比上涨 3.3%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 4.3 个百分点； 水产品价格环比上涨 2.7%，比 2024 年 12 月提高 2.6 个百分 点； 奶类价格环 ...

未经授权引用或转发须承担法律责任及一切后果，并请务必阅读文后的免责声明 并购周报 并购周报 | 市场研究部 | 2025 | 年 2 | 月 10 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国资央企并购周度观察第 期 5 | | | | | | 国资央企并购 | | | | | | 本周（1.27-2.9）国资央企并购事件共 1 项，其中中央 | | | | | | 国有企业并购 0 项；地方国有企业并购 1 项，为百联股 | | | | | | 份收购长沙乐和城 60%股权。 | | | | | | 链长动态 | | | | | | 本周链长企业动态方面，华润集团有限公司下属上市公 | | | | | | 司华润三九（000999）发布"关于收购天士力医药集 | | | | | | 团股份有限公司获国务院国资委批复的公告"。 | | | | | | 技术创新并购 | | | | | | | 分析师：王闻 登记编码：S1490519010001 | | | | | 本周涉及技术创新类并购 0 项。 | 邮箱：wangwenyj@crsec.com.cn | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The release of the DeepSeek-R1 model by DeepSeek, a subsidiary of Huansheng Quantitative, significantly boosts domestic AI development, showcasing performance comparable to OpenAI's o1 model in various tasks [1]. - DeepSeek's R1 model employs reinforcement learning techniques during the post-training phase, enhancing its reasoning capabilities with minimal labeled data [1]. - The API pricing for DeepSeek's model is notably competitive, with costs of 1 RMB per million input tokens (cache hit) and 4 RMB (cache miss), and 16 RMB per million output tokens, which is 27-55 times lower than OpenAI's o1 model [1]. Summary by Sections Event - On January 20, DeepSeek officially launched the DeepSeek-R1 model, which performs exceptionally well in mathematical, coding, and natural language reasoning tasks [1]. Model Performance - The R1 model's performance is on par with OpenAI's o1 official version, indicating a significant advancement in AI capabilities [1]. Training Techniques - The model's training involved extensive use of reinforcement learning, which greatly improved its inference abilities despite limited labeled data [1]. API Pricing - DeepSeek offers a competitive pricing structure for its API, making it an attractive option for users compared to existing models in the market [1].

国内市场综述 量价齐升 延续上涨 周五（2 月 7 日）大盘量价齐升，延续上涨。截至收盘， 上证综指收于 3303.67 点，上涨 1.01%；深成指收于 10576 点，上涨 1.75%；科创 50 上涨 0.75%；创业板指 上涨 2.53%，万得全 A 成交额共 19919 亿元，较前一日 明显上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 29 个上涨，其中综合 金融、计算机、电力设备及新能源涨幅居前，仅有银行 小幅收跌。概念方面，算力租赁、DeepSeek 及医保支 付改革等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收跌，亚马逊跌超 4% 周五（2月7日），美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.99%， 标普 500 指数跌 0.95%，纳指跌 1.36%。耐克跌超 4%， 亚马逊跌逾 4%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数 跌 1.77%，特斯拉、谷歌跌超 3%。中概股普遍上涨，亿 航智能涨超 12%，大全新能源涨近 10%。 新闻精要 | 1. 资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"实施意见出台 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 1 0.7% | 月 | CPI | ...

市场研究部 2025 年 2 月 9 日 证监会《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章" 的实施意见》点评 事件 在全球竞争、大国博弈的当下，科技创新是制高点，加大科技创新 的支持既是资本市场引导资源配置方向的责任担当，也是投资收益 的重要驱动所在。近年来美股指数的持续走强，主要是科技龙头股 的带动。当前以 DeepSeek 等为代表的中国企业崛起，也带动全球 资本市场对中国创新能力的高度关注。 资本市场在分担创新风险、促进创新资本形成等方面具有独特优势。 通过推动科技金融发展，不仅有利于引导社会资源向科技创新配置， 同时也分散风险的同时，通过竞争中胜出的龙头企业快速发展，为 投资者带来更多的投资渠道、产品选择和相应回报。 看好 2025 年 2 月 7 日，中国证监会发布了《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇 大文章"的实施意见》（以下简称《实施意见》），围绕五个重点领域提 出 18 条具体措施，为贯彻中央精神，助力国家战略实施，积极发挥 资本市场功能，提升服务实体经济质效做出了明确指引。 2024 年 7 月政治局会议学习 科技金融多措并举 推进高质量发展 《实施意见》中科技金融不仅排在"五篇大文章"之首，同时也是 ...