Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile, with a target price raised to HKD 19.0, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 13.9 [4][6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's performance exceeded expectations in the first three quarters of 2024, achieving revenue of RMB 167.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a net profit of RMB 13.05 billion, up 358% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth in performance is attributed to steady sales growth and optimization of the product mix, with cumulative sales from January to October reaching 1.716 million units, a 28.9% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The introduction of the new generation Raytheon EM-i hybrid technology is expected to accelerate product updates, enhancing fuel efficiency and electric drive efficiency [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024E, sales revenue is projected to reach RMB 239.34 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [5]. - The net profit for FY2024E is estimated at RMB 15.78 billion, representing a significant increase of 197% compared to FY2023A [5]. - The gross margin for FY2024E is expected to be 15.5%, slightly up from 15.3% in FY2023A [5]. - The average ROE is projected to rise to 17.9% in FY2024E, indicating improved profitability [5]. Strategic Developments - Geely is strategically integrating its brands, with plans to transfer 11.3% of Zeekr Intelligent Technology shares to Geely Automobile, increasing its stake to approximately 62.8% [3]. - The restructuring aims to reduce redundant investments across market segments and enhance collaboration in branding, product development, technology, supply chain, marketing, and international expansion [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 496.8, representing a potential upside of 23% from the recent closing price of HKD 403.8 [6]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 FY2024 results exceeded market expectations, with a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year to HKD 167.19 billion, driven by robust growth in gaming and advertising sectors. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 59.81 billion, reflecting a 33% year-on-year increase [1][3]. Business Performance Summary - **User Engagement**: The combined monthly active accounts for WeChat and WeChat reached 1.382 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year. QQ's mobile terminal monthly active accounts were 562 million, up 0.7% year-on-year. The small program transaction ecosystem saw over HKD 2 trillion in transaction volume, growing by over 10% year-on-year [2][9]. - **Gaming Sector**: Tencent's gaming revenue was HKD 51.8 billion, a 12.6% year-on-year increase. Domestic game revenue grew by 14% to HKD 37.3 billion, driven by popular titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG MOBILE." International game revenue reached HKD 14.5 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, marking a quarterly record [11][12]. - **Advertising and Marketing Services**: The marketing services revenue grew by 17% year-on-year to HKD 29.99 billion, supported by strong demand for ads on video accounts and mini-programs. Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was HKD 53.09 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, with growth in wealth management services offset by a decline in payment services due to weak consumer spending [3][16]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The overall gross margin stabilized at 53%, benefiting from increased contributions from high-margin revenue sources such as domestic gaming and advertising. The adjusted net profit for Q3 was HKD 59.81 billion, significantly exceeding expectations [1][21]. - **Shareholder Value**: Tencent has been actively repurchasing shares, with a target of HKD 100 billion for the year, having already completed over HKD 90 billion in buybacks, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [23].

2024 年 11 月 18 日 联想集团 (992.HK) 三大业务板块增长迅猛，人工智能成关键驱动 事件：联想集团公布了 2024/25 财政年度中期业绩，截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日止三 个月(2024/25 Q2)，总收入约 178.5 亿美元，同比增长 24%，受益于全球对人工 智能领域的投资热潮，三大业务板块均有所增长；受低毛利率的 ISG 业务收入增 长较高影响，整体毛利率同比下降 1.8 个百分点至 15.7%，；归母净利润约 3.59 亿美元，同比大幅增长 44%。 报告摘要 数据来源：公司资料，国证国际预测 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------| | | 公司动态分析 证券研究报告 | | | 电脑及周边器材 | | 投资评级： | 买入 | | | 维持 评级 | | 6 个月目标价 | 11.0 港元 | | 股价 2024-11-15 | 9.17 港元 | | 总市值 ( 百万港元） | 113,750.7 | | 流通市值(百万港元） | 113,750.7 | | 总股本(百 ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|--------------|----------|---------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 11 月 21 日 | | 互联网 | 港元 46.40 | 港元 54.00 | +16.4% | | 3 季度业绩符合预期。快手 2024 年 3 季度总收入 311 亿元（人民币，下 同），同比增 11%，符合我们/市场预期。经调整净利润 39 亿元（同比 +24%），与我们/市场预期基本一致，对应经调整净利率 12.7%，环比降 2.4 个百分点，主要因奥运会内容版权摊销、短剧/电商补贴加大，以及 AI 研发投入增加。 业务概览：1）DAU 突破 4 亿，同比增 5%，总时长同比增 7%。2）电商 GMV 同比增 15%，符合预期，月均动销商家数（同比增 40%+）及月活跃 买家数（MAC 1.33 亿，同比+12%）维持增长趋势。泛货架 GMV 占比提升 至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, based on improvements in profitability and revised revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit, with a significant revenue increase of 26% year-on-year, reaching 7.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024. The revenue breakdown includes value-added services (2.8 billion yuan), advertising (2.1 billion yuan), games (1.8 billion yuan), and IP derivatives (600 million yuan) [3][4]. - The gross margin improved to 35%, a 10 percentage point increase from the previous year, attributed to substantial revenue growth while keeping operational costs stable [3]. - The company expects to continue enhancing its profitability, focusing on commercial monetization through high-margin businesses like advertising and gaming, while also fostering community growth [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.5%. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 30.31 billion yuan and 34.07 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14% and 12% [5][20]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve significantly, with projections of -175 million yuan in 2024, followed by positive net profits of 1.99 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.36 billion yuan in 2026 [5][20]. - The company’s gross profit margin is anticipated to rise to 32.7% in 2024, further increasing to 36.6% in 2025 and 38% in 2026 [20][23]. Advertising and Game Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue grew by 28% year-on-year to 2.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, driven by enhanced advertising products and efficiency. The company is implementing a multi-faceted advertising strategy to expand its market reach [4]. - Game revenue saw an impressive 84% year-on-year increase, reaching 1.8 billion yuan, with notable contributions from popular titles [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain a dual focus on commercial growth and community user growth post-profitability, leveraging its monetization strategies to support content creators and enhance community engagement [4]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21 USD or 162 HKD, reflecting a P/E ratio of 32x for 2025 and 19x for 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for XPeng-W (09868 HK) with a target price of HKD 57 8 and USD 14 9 for XPEV N [2][3] Core Views - XPeng is in a strong product cycle with improving profitability expected by 2025 [2] - New models like Mona M03 and P7+ are driving sales growth with Q3 revenue reaching RMB 10 1 billion up 18% YoY and 25% QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin exceeded expectations at 15 3% up 1 3pct QoQ driven by cost reductions and economies of scale [2] - The company aims to achieve breakeven at the operational level by the end of 2025 [2] - XPeng's overseas profitability is higher than domestic due to its premium positioning in international markets [2] Financial Performance - Q3 vehicle sales revenue was RMB 8 8 billion up 12% YoY while service and other revenue surged 91% YoY to RMB 1 3 billion [2] - Q3 net loss narrowed by 53% YoY to RMB 1 8 billion with a net loss margin of 18% [2] - Non-GAAP net loss was RMB 1 53 billion with a net loss margin of 15 2% [2] - Q3 vehicle sales gross margin improved to 8 6% up 2 2pct QoQ while service and other gross margin rose to 60 1% up 5 9pct QoQ [2] Product and Sales Outlook - Mona M03 and P7+ are expected to drive monthly sales to record highs in 2025 [2] - XPeng plans to launch 4 new models and multiple facelifts in 2025 [2] - The company targets monthly sales of 30 000 units in November 2024 and P7+ deliveries of over 10 000 units in December 2024 [2] Technological Advancements - XPeng introduced the Kunpeng Super Electric System featuring next-generation range-extending technology [2] - The company plans to enhance its intelligent driving capabilities with the Tianji 5 5 system aiming for one intervention per 100 kilometers by Q4 2025 [2] Overseas Expansion - Q3 overseas sales accounted for 15% of total sales with XPeng leading Chinese brands in the European mid-to-high-end EV market [2] - The overseas sales network expanded to 30+ countries and 110+ stores by Q3 2024 with plans to reach 140+ stores by end of 2024 and 300+ stores by 2025 [2] Financial Projections - XPeng is expected to sell 190 000 units in 2024 400 000 units in 2025 and 450 000 units in 2026 [2] - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 40 8 billion in 2024 RMB 73 2 billion in 2025 and RMB 88 2 billion in 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is forecasted at -14% in 2024 -5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of $108.00 USD / HK$168.05, implying a 26.05% / 24.39% upside potential for the US and HK markets respectively [2] Core Views - Blizzard games' return drives PC gaming revenue growth, with new product cycle expected in 2025 [2] - Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 26.21 billion, down 3.9% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 26.59 billion [2] - GAAP net profit of RMB 6.54 billion, down 16.6% YoY, while Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 7.50 billion, down 13.3% YoY [2] - Mobile gaming revenue under pressure due to lack of new titles, while PC gaming revenue grows 29.0% YoY [2] - Youdao achieves record operating profit in Q3, driven by smart hardware and advertising business growth [2] - Cloud Music enters Hong Kong Stock Connect, with Q3 revenue of RMB 2.0 billion, up 1.3% YoY [2] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 total revenue: RMB 26.21 billion, down 3.9% YoY [2] - Gaming and value-added services revenue: RMB 20.86 billion, down 4.2% YoY [2] - Mobile gaming revenue: RMB 14.3 billion, down 9.7% YoY [2] - PC gaming revenue: RMB 4.55 billion, up 29.0% YoY [2] - Youdao revenue: RMB 1.57 billion, up 2.2% YoY [2] - Cloud Music revenue: RMB 2.0 billion, up 1.3% YoY [2] Profitability - Operating profit margin: 27.3%, down 40bps YoY [2] - GAAP net profit: RMB 6.54 billion, down 16.6% YoY [2] - Non-GAAP net profit: RMB 7.50 billion, down 13.3% YoY [2] - Youdao operating profit: RMB 110 million, up 186% YoY [2] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR: 10.5% [2] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit CAGR: 8.5% [2] - 2025 PC gaming revenue expected to decline 12% to RMB 21.6 billion [2] - 2025 mobile gaming revenue expected to grow 5.4% to RMB 60.0 billion [2] Business Segments Gaming - Blizzard games' return drives PC gaming growth, with World of Warcraft and Hearthstone contributing to revenue increase [2] - New titles expected in 2025, including Marvel Rivals and Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng [2] - Pipeline includes Code: Infinity, Marvel Rampage, and Destiny: Rise [2] Youdao - Smart hardware revenue grows 25.2% YoY to RMB 320 million, driven by X7Pro dictionary pen sales [2] - Online marketing revenue grows 45.6% YoY to RMB 490 million, supported by AI optimization [2] Cloud Music - DAU/MAU ratio remains above 30%, with 24.4% paying user ratio [2] - ARPU reaches RMB 6.2 per month, with 730,000 independent musicians on the platform [2] Valuation - Target price of $108.00 USD / HK$168.05, based on 14.9x 2025 PE [2] - Gaming business valued at 1.2x PEG, with 12x PE for Non-GAAP net profit [2] - Youdao and Cloud Music valued based on NetEase's shareholding, with 5% discount applied to group valuation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - NIO's main brand requires a boost in sales momentum, with expectations for significant contributions from its budget sub-brands in 2025. Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 65.9 billion, 87.6 billion, and 93.4 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 33%, and 7% respectively. Non-GAAP net losses for the same period are projected to be -18.8 billion, -15.8 billion, and -14.5 billion CNY, with adjusted EPS of -9.2, -7.6, and -6.9 CNY [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, NIO reported revenue of 18.67 billion CNY, a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, but below Bloomberg consensus expectations of 19.19 billion CNY. The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 1.2% to 270,000 CNY due to increased promotions. Gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 10.7%, driven by a 0.9 percentage point increase in automotive gross margin to 13.1% due to lower material costs [7] Sales and Delivery Outlook - NIO's guidance for Q4 2024 indicates a delivery target of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles. The delivery of the budget sub-brand L60 is expected to ramp up, with 4,300 units delivered in October and a target of 10,000 units in December. The main brand's sales momentum is anticipated to rely on the refresh of older models, while the budget sub-brand is expected to drive overall sales growth in 2025 [8] Market Positioning - The product lineup for NIO in 2025 will include the luxury sedan ET9, two family SUVs from the L60 sub-brand, and the first model from the new budget brand Firefly. This comprehensive product matrix aims to cover price ranges from 150,000 to 800,000 CNY. The main brand's sales are expected to rebound with the refresh of existing models, while the new sub-brands are projected to stabilize production and increase volume [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 31.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and adjusted net profit of 3.948 billion RMB, up 24.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Daily Active Users (DAU) surpassed 400 million, with DAU and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reaching 408 million and 714 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 4.3% [2] - The company continues to enhance its AI capabilities, integrating large models for content generation and understanding, which is expected to drive traffic growth and improve monetization efficiency [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 127.77 billion RMB, 142.80 billion RMB, and 156.11 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10x, 8x, and 7x [4] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is revised to 17.6 billion RMB, 22 billion RMB, and 26.2 billion RMB respectively, indicating significant growth potential [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 50.58% in 2023, expected to rise to 57.05% by 2026, showcasing improving profitability [14] User Engagement and Advertising Performance - The company achieved a DAU/MAU ratio of 57.1%, indicating strong user engagement, with average daily usage time of 132 minutes, a 2% increase year-on-year [2] - Advertising revenue from external circulation remains robust, with online marketing service revenue growing by 20% to 17.6 billion RMB, driven by sectors such as media, e-commerce, and local services [3] - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% to 334.2 billion RMB, supported by a favorable consumption environment and competitive strategies from other platforms [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 21.80 [81][85]. Core Insights - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) is a leading domestic manufacturer in the ADC and fusion protein sectors, with a strong R&D pipeline [6][15]. - The company's core products, including the first domestic ADC, Vadisizumab (爱地希), and the dual-target biological drug, Taisip (泰爱), are expected to see rapid revenue growth [7][21]. - The revenue forecast for Vadisizumab is projected to increase from RMB 530 million in 2023 to RMB 1.31 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 35.3% [29][30]. - Taisip is anticipated to benefit from the strong demand for systemic lupus erythematosus treatments, with revenue expected to grow from RMB 520 million in 2023 to RMB 1.71 billion by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 48.8% [41][53]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical was established in 2008 and went public in Hong Kong in 2020, focusing on R&D and production in oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmology [15][19]. - The company has established three major technology platforms: ADCs, fusion proteins, and bispecific antibodies, with six additional products in the pipeline [15][19]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with six investigational drugs in oncology and ophthalmology, including RC28 and RC88, which are expected to have significant market potential [2][67]. - RC28 is in Phase III clinical trials targeting age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema, while RC88 is in Phase II trials for MSLN-positive solid tumors [2][67][71]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.08 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.05 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 41.5% [75]. - The company is expected to reduce shareholder net losses gradually, with a forecasted loss of RMB 432 million by 2026 [76]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Vadisizumab is the only approved domestic ADC in China, benefiting from increasing market demand for ADCs [29][30]. - Taisip's clinical data shows superior efficacy compared to its main competitor, Benlysta, which positions it favorably in the market for systemic lupus erythematosus [41][47]. Valuation and Investment Thesis - The report uses a DCF model to price the stock, indicating a target price of HKD 21.80, suggesting significant upside potential based on current valuations [86]. - The company’s current stock price reflects a lower valuation compared to peers, indicating room for growth as the market recognizes its product pipeline and revenue potential [81][85].