M Idea Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics | Asia Pacific October 20, 2024 11:20 PM GMT Research Tactical Idea We believe the share price will fall relative to the country index over the next 30 days. This is because of an earnings release. The company announced preliminary 3Q24 earnings will be around Rmb77mn, down 59% QoQ and 62% YoY. This would represent only 18% of our 2H24 estimate of Rmb423mn, well below normal seasonality. The company has lowered some product pricing in the face of intense competition, a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Chalco and Hongqiao, indicating a positive outlook for these companies due to expected benefits from rising alumina prices [15][23][26]. Core Insights - China alumina prices are expected to remain strong due to tight bauxite and alumina supply, influenced by recent production cuts and adverse weather conditions affecting shipments [12][14]. - Chalco and Hongqiao, as vertically-integrated aluminum producers, are projected to benefit from higher alumina prices, with estimated net profit increases of 2% and 4% for 2024E, respectively, for a 5% rise in alumina prices [15][23]. - A 30-day Positive Catalyst Watch has been initiated for both Chalco and Hongqiao, reflecting the anticipated positive impact of strong alumina prices on their financial performance [15][23]. Summary by Sections Bauxite Supply - Following production cuts since November 2023, the government has begun approving production resumption for bauxite mines in Henan, but the process in Shanxi is slower. Stricter safety requirements may prevent output from returning to previous levels [13]. Alumina Price - As of October 14, 2024, the spot alumina price in China reached Rmb4,350 per ton, marking a 9.4% month-over-month increase and a 46.5% year-over-year increase. The alumina output in September 2024 was 6.91 million tons, reflecting a 2.69% year-over-year increase but a 4.27% month-over-month decrease due to tight bauxite supply and maintenance work [14]. Financial Projections for Chalco - The report revises Chalco's net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 upwards by 44%, 23%, and 6% respectively, with new target prices set at HK$9.09 for H-shares and Rmb10.96 for A-shares [23][26]. Financial Projections for Hongqiao - Hongqiao's net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are revised upwards by 11%, 5%, and -6% respectively, with a new target price of HK$14.80 [23][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Shenzhen Inovance Technology, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance due to potential risks associated with revenue guidance cuts [3][7]. Core Insights - The report expresses concerns about the company's ability to meet its 2024 revenue growth guidance of 20% year-over-year, particularly in the general automation sector, due to a high base effect from previous quarters and weaker demand from new energy sectors [7]. - The target price for Shenzhen Inovance Technology is set at Rmb55.0, reflecting a valuation based on approximately 30 times the estimated earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E [3][7]. Financial Summary - The earnings summary indicates a net profit of Rmb4,320 million for 2022, projected to increase to Rmb4,911 million in 2024, with a diluted EPS growth from Rmb1.640 in 2022 to Rmb1.847 in 2024 [4]. - The expected total return for the stock is projected at -5.8%, with an expected share price return of -6.6% and a dividend yield of 0.8% [3][4]. Market Capitalization - The market capitalization of Shenzhen Inovance Technology is reported at Rmb157,769 million, equivalent to approximately US$22,260 million [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yealink Network Technology with a target price raised to Rmb50, implying an expected share price return of approximately 25.4% [4][24]. Core Insights - Yealink's 3Q24 preliminary results slightly exceeded forecasts, leading to an upgrade in EPS forecasts by 7%, 6%, and 3% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][24]. - The company achieved a net profit growth of 27.5% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2024, surpassing the management's target of over 20% for the year [3][4]. - The report highlights the anticipated increase in corporate capital expenditures in the US and EU due to rate reductions, which is expected to drive demand for Yealink's communication systems [5][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the expected net profit is projected at Rmb2,511 million, reflecting a growth of 40.4% year-on-year, with a diluted EPS of Rmb1.987 [6][11]. - The revenue split for the first half of 2024 shows SIP phone systems contributing 57%, video conferencing systems 36%, and cloud office systems 7%, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 51.3%, and 29.3% [14][24]. Market Position and Strategy - Yealink is positioned as a leading provider of unified communication solutions, holding over 30% of the global SIP phone market share in 2023 [25]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend towards hybrid workplaces, which is anticipated to enhance its market share in enterprise communication [24][25]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of Rmb50 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, assuming a discount rate of 9.1% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%, which aligns with the stock's historical mean PE ratio of 25-26x [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp with a target price of Rmb81.000, indicating an expected share price return of 17.3% and an expected total return of 19.5% [1][11]. Core Insights - The preliminary results for 9M24 show a revenue drop of 15% year-on-year to Rmb43 billion and a net profit decline of 25% year-on-year to Rmb3.9 billion. In 3Q24, revenue decreased by 22% year-on-year to Rmb11.7 billion, with net profit down by 53% year-on-year to Rmb632 million [3][4]. - The decline in performance is attributed to weak sales in the Hainan duty-free market, which saw a 34% year-on-year drop in sales during July and August 2024. However, there was a significant rebound in airport duty-free sales, with Beijing airports reporting over 140% year-on-year growth in 9M24 [3][4]. - The report anticipates that weak consumer sentiment will continue to impact sales trends into 4Q24 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 3Q24, total revenue was Rmb11.7 billion, a 22% decline year-on-year. The net profit margin fell to 5.4%, with operating profit dropping by 42% year-on-year [3][8]. - The core business gross margin improved by 1.09 percentage points year-on-year to 32.6%, although it was slightly lower than the 32.9% in the first half of 2024 [3][8]. Hainan Duty-Free Market - Hainan duty-free sales during the National Day Golden Week totaled Rmb785 million, with average daily sales down 33% year-on-year to Rmb112 million. The decline was primarily due to a 26% drop in the number of buyers [4][8]. - The report suggests that the Hainan duty-free market will remain soft in the short term, reflecting ongoing consumer sentiment challenges [4][8]. Valuation - The report utilizes a DCF-based valuation approach with a target price of Rmb81, based on a WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 4% [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a price target of HK$20.20 for Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HK$16.88 as of October 14, 2024 [4]. Core Insights - Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd has guided for a 9M24 net profit range of Rmb1.85-2.25 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 38-67%. The reported net profit for 1H24 was Rmb1.38 billion, suggesting a 3Q24 net profit range of Rmb467-867 million, compared to Rmb684 million in 2Q24. The company needs to achieve the upper end of this guidance to meet market expectations [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The fiscal year ending for Shandong Gold is December 2023, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of Rmb0.52 for FY23, increasing to Rmb0.86 in FY24e and Rmb1.25 in FY25e [4]. - Revenue projections are Rmb59.275 billion for FY23, Rmb63.878 billion for FY24e, and Rmb71.614 billion for FY25e [4]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb8.414 billion in FY23 to Rmb12.058 billion in FY24e and Rmb15.450 billion in FY25e [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently Rmb114.234 million, with an enterprise value of Rmb161.343 million [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 25.9 for FY23, decreasing to 17.8 for FY24e and further to 12.3 for FY25e [4]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 16.8 in FY23 to 12.8 in FY24e and 9.5 in FY25e [4].

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 15 Oct 2024 18:53:38 ET │ 10 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS) Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch shuinu9870 View original report on this Catalyst Watch Direction: Upside 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Duration: Within 30 Days (expires 15 Nov 2024) Catalyst: Strong alumina price With limited alumina and bauxite supply, we expect alumina pri ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Unicom [3][10][17] - The price target is set at HK$6.50, indicating a downside of 7% from the current price of HK$6.96 [3][10] Core Insights - China Unicom showcased a flagship 5G smart factory project with Paideer Battery, which significantly improves production efficiency by reducing production tasks from two days to just two hours [3][10] - The company views data as a crucial driver for future growth, engaging in the construction of third-party trustable data spaces to enhance AI development [3][10] - China Unicom is enhancing its receivables collection process by switching to continuous collection throughout the year, aiming for better cash flow management [3][10] Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, the projected revenue is Rmb 372.6 billion, with an EBITDA of Rmb 82.7 billion [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected to grow from Rmb 0.61 in 2023 to Rmb 0.82 by 2026 [3][10] - The net income is expected to increase from Rmb 18.7 billion in 2023 to Rmb 25.0 billion by 2026 [3][10] Market Position - China Unicom's market capitalization is currently US$27.4 billion, with an enterprise value of US$12.1 billion [3][10] - The company has a significant stake in China Tower, valued at HK$0.9 per share, contributing to its overall valuation [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of $230, reflecting a downside potential of 3.7% from the current price of $238.77 [11][14]. Core Insights - Tesla showcased significant advancements in its Optimus humanoid robot and introduced the Cybercab and Robovan at the 'We, Robot' event, indicating strong progress in autonomous vehicle technology [1][2]. - The company plans to initiate unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) robotaxi operations in Texas and California next year, with production of the Cybercab expected to start in 2026 or before 2027 [2][4]. - Tesla anticipates that its Cybercab will have an average operating cost of approximately $0.20 per mile, with pricing expected to be around $0.30 to $0.40 per mile [3][4]. - The long-term revenue potential from robotaxis is significant, although initial deployments may yield limited revenues [4][6]. Summary by Sections Cybercab and Robovan - The Cybercab is a two-seat vehicle designed without traditional controls, while the Robovan can accommodate up to 20 passengers or transport goods [2]. - Tesla aims for the Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30,000 or less, with plans for inductive charging and self-cleaning capabilities [3][4]. Optimus Robot - The Optimus robot demonstrated impressive capabilities, including lifelike movements and interactive features, suggesting a growing role in Tesla's future [10][11]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for high-end humanoid robots could exceed $10 billion by 2030, with limited production of Optimus Version 1 expected to start early next year [11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Tesla indicate growth from $96.77 billion in 2023 to $140.04 billion by 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from $16.63 billion to $29.54 billion in the same period [13]. - The EPS is projected to increase from $2.60 in 2023 to $4.20 by 2026, reflecting anticipated growth in the company's software and FSD business [13].

October 10, 2024 04:18 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|--------- ...