More people than ever expected to shop this Thanksgiving weekend. For many customers, sales day. And for many companies, payday.Ahead of what the National Retail Federation predicts will be a shopping season that tops a trillion dollars. For the first time, the average customer spending nearly 900 bucks. >> They might be doing what makes sense for their family to make ends meet.Um, we also know that consumers, they're prioritizing this, but they're doing what makes sense elsewhere. >> Still, this year, tari ...

Core Insights - Global inflation remains persistent, leading to a decline in discretionary spending, which significantly impacts retailers [1] - Retailers face weaker pricing and increased cost pressures, affecting even those with strong brand recognition [1] Industry Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing challenges due to inflation and changing consumer spending patterns [1] - Retailers are often the first to feel the effects of economic downturns, resulting in a ripple effect across various sectors [1] Company Summary - Companies with established domestic footprints are not immune to the pressures of inflation and changing consumer behavior [1] - The article highlights the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, particularly in sectors like banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels [1]

分组1 - Nvidia reported strong earnings, beating estimates and providing bullish guidance for the fourth quarter, with a significant AI chip backlog projected to exceed $500 billion [3][13][27] - CEO Jensen Wong dismissed concerns about an AI bubble, stating that demand for Nvidia's products remains robust and supply constraints have been alleviated [20][24][60] - The stock market reacted positively to Nvidia's performance, with major indices like the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 showing substantial gains [4][8][12] 分组2 - Walmart also reported strong earnings, beating estimates and raising its sales and profit outlook, driven by a 27% increase in e-commerce sales [14][38][41] - The retail landscape is mixed, with Walmart performing well while competitors like Target and Home Depot faced challenges [46][55] - The economic outlook remains uncertain, with inflation pressures affecting low-income consumers, despite positive indicators from Walmart's performance [35][39][39] 分组3 - Analysts are optimistic about Nvidia's future, with over 30 firms raising their price targets following the earnings report, reflecting confidence in sustained AI demand [26][28][29] - The AI sector is becoming increasingly dominant in the market, with Nvidia's influence being compared to historical market themes like the railroads [60][63] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are being overshadowed by the excitement surrounding Nvidia and the AI trade, indicating a shift in market focus [64][65]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. is facing stock price fluctuations and is under scrutiny ahead of its upcoming earnings report, with Citigroup adjusting its rating to Neutral and revising the price target to $19 [1][5]. Stock Performance - Macy's stock closed at $19.15, reflecting a 4.2% decline from the previous day, which is more significant than the broader market declines of the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq [2][5]. - Over the past month, Macy's shares have increased by 12.18%, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.48% and the S&P 500's increase of 1.48% [2]. Earnings Expectations - The company is expected to report an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.14, representing a 450% decrease from the same quarter last year [3]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $4.59 billion, indicating a 3.25% decline from the previous year [3][5]. - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $2 per share [3]. Stock Metrics - Currently, Macy's stock is priced at $19.51, with a daily increase of 1.88% or $0.36, and has fluctuated between a low of $19 and a high of $19.68 during the trading day [4]. - Over the past year, the stock has reached a high of $21.25 and a low of $9.76, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.24 billion and a trading volume of 4,723,131 shares [4].

Group 1 - The consumer landscape this holiday season is diverse, with low-income consumers facing challenges while high-income earners and the wealthy continue to spend aggressively [1] - The spending patterns observed during this holiday season may significantly influence economic conditions leading into 2026 [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different consumer segments rather than viewing "the consumer" as a single entity [1]

Market Performance - Major U.S. indexes showed mixed performance last week, with the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 2.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Investors are shifting focus from high-valuation technology and AI stocks to more defensive sectors due to market volatility [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The end of a 43-day government standoff has reduced political risks, but delays in key economic data releases have created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve and investors [2] - The Fed is balancing economic growth and inflation, with inflation remaining above the 2% target and a resilient labor market casting doubt on December rate cut expectations [2] Zacks Research Performance - Zacks Research has provided guidance that led to significant stock performance, with Macy's shares increasing by 14.9% since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on September 18, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.2% increase [3][4] - Fresnillo plc also saw a 7.2% return since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on September 19, compared to the S&P 500's 1.8% increase [4] Zacks Model Portfolio Returns - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +8.64% in 2025 through September 1, outperforming the S&P 500's +7.60% [4] - The Zacks Model Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 index by over 12 percentage points since 1988, with an annualized average return of +23.8% compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 [5] Specific Stock Performances - United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) shares increased by 32.4% after its Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform [7] - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) gained 35.9% over the past 12 weeks, while CACI International Inc. (CACI) returned 20.1% during the same period [10] Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) - The ECAP returned -1.30% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's +8.1% gain, and +2.72% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's +14.84% [15] - The portfolio aims to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies with a proven track record of earnings stability [16] Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) returned 10.9% over the past 12 weeks, while UnitedHealth Group (UNH) increased by 5.9% [18] - The ECDP returned -0.01% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's +8.1% gain [20] Top 10 Stock Portfolio - MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) has jumped 41.2% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 14.7% increase [22] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,553.1% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +545.2% [24]

Group 1 - Dillard's reported quarterly earnings of $8.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.5%, surpassing analyst expectations [1] - The strong earnings performance of Dillard's is seen as a positive indicator ahead of major retail earnings reports [1] - The stock of Dillard's broke out past a buy area, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - Kohl's received a Relative Strength Rating upgrade to 91, indicating improving technical performance [2][4] - Dillard's earned a Relative Strength Rating of 92, showcasing its market leadership [4] - Macy's chart improved following a Q2 earnings beat, with a key metric reaching a three-year high [4]

Market Overview & Strategy - The market demonstrates strength with rotation into reasonably priced stocks outside the AI space, indicating a broader base beyond data center spending [2][3][4] - A rotation into undervalued companies that could catch fire is happening, defying the bears [4] - Growth investing in non-tech style is making a comeback [22][26] Travel & Leisure Sector - Travel stocks, including airline stocks like United and Delta, and Expedia, are recovering as the government shutdown ends [5] - Cruise lines and hotels are expected to experience similar gains as travel stocks [5] - Analysts are anticipated to turn positive on travel stocks, including Marriott and Wynn Resorts, as the government reopens and China's economy strengthens [6][7] Restaurant Sector - Restaurants like Brinker (parent of Chili's), Texas Roadhouse, and Chipotle are showing signs of recovery [11] - Brinker reported a terrific quarter, while Texas Roadhouse was impacted by beef inflation [11][12] - Starbucks' last quarter was positive, and Darden (Olive Garden) is a buy due to consumer confidence [13][14] Retail Sector - Retail owners are encouraged to promote usual suspects, especially with the collapse of oil prices [14] - On Holdings reported a remarkable quarter with no planned holiday discounts [15] - Retailers like Urban Outfitters, Macy's, and Costco are highlighted as potentially undervalued [16][17] Financial Sector - Bank stocks are considered absurdly cheap compared to the rest of the market [18] - A surge in IPO filings is expected from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo [19] Healthcare Sector - Amgen announced a breakthrough in Repatha, an injection to prevent heart attacks [20] - Pfizer is suggested as a potential buy to enter the lucrative weight loss business [20] Company Specific - Celsius had a bad miss in the last quarter, and it's recommended to wait another quarter [23][24] - Deere is expected to benefit from farmers receiving checks [25] - Flood Entertainment is on the move after reporting good earnings [27] - AMG soared 9% on the heels of its Analyst Day [27]

Pricing Trends in Apparel and Footwear - A third-party data source tracking e-commerce prices indicates a slight increase in apparel prices, but it's not a huge jump from previous trends [2][3][4] - The apparel industry has seen a mix shift into higher price point categories like work wear and tailored pants, contributing to gross margin highs [6][7] - Economists believe the full impact of tariffs hasn't been seen yet due to inventory timing, with potential one-time hits later on [8][9] - Apparel retailers typically hold three months of inventory, suggesting that the real pricing impact from tariffs will likely flow through P&Ls from November onwards [9][10] - Footwear businesses, often run as wholesale models, may see price increases more clearly in the first half of next year due to forward order books locked in for six months [11][12] Company-Specific Observations - Torrid and Anthropology (within Urban Outfitters) have shown the biggest price jumps since Liberation Day, potentially due to mix shift and strategic assortment changes [14][15] - On the footwear side, Hey Dude, Macy's, and Kohl's are showing more price increases compared to pre-liberation day levels, possibly due to a mix shift dynamic [16] - Department stores are trying to fortify themselves with popular and premium brands, actively adjusting their business model [17] Data Considerations - The pricing data factors in discounting and mix shift, but it's not possible to see exactly how these are factoring into the pricing [3] - The prices reflect the final selling price, taking into account discount codes and what shoppers actually paid [5]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's is positioned well to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, supported by a strong history of performance in recent quarters [1][2]. Earnings Performance - Macy's has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, achieving an average beat of 65.04% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, Macy's reported earnings of $0.41 per share against an expectation of $0.19, resulting in a surprise of 115.79% [2]. - For the previous quarter, the company reported $0.16 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.14, which was a surprise of 14.29% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Macy's have been revised upward, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [5]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Macy's is currently +14.82%, suggesting bullish expectations for upcoming earnings [8]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat [8]. Statistical Insights - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [6]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]. Importance of Earnings ESP - Monitoring a company's Earnings ESP before quarterly releases is crucial for increasing the likelihood of successful investment decisions [10].