Welcome back. We're watching some big moves in the housing space. Diana Olic is here with more on that.Hi, Diana. Hey, Mike. Yeah, for builders, it's all about the mortgage rates. And today, it's the potential for even lower mortgage rates that has the stocks rallying.The average rate on the 30-year fix fell to 65.55% this morning, according to Mortgage News Daily. That's the lowest since October. Now, it has been on the lower side all month, but really struggling to break out over the last few weeks.Today' ...

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected Q3 fiscal 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding estimates but showing a year-over-year decline [2][6][7]. Earnings, Revenue & Margin Discussion - Adjusted earnings were $3.36 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90 by 15.9%, but down 18% from $4.10 a year ago [6]. - Total revenues reached $9.23 billion, a 7% decrease year-over-year, yet exceeding analysts' expectations of $8.78 billion by 5.1% [7]. - The consolidated pre-tax profit margin was 14.7%, down from 18.1% a year ago [7]. Segment Details - Homebuilding revenues were $8.58 billion, down 7% year-over-year, with home sales totaling $8.56 billion, reflecting a 7.3% decline [8]. - Home closings decreased by 4% year-over-year to 23,160 homes [8]. - Financial Services revenues fell 6% to $227.8 million, while Forestar contributed $390.5 million, up from $318.4 million a year ago [10]. Balance Sheet Details - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaled $2.66 billion as of June 30, 2025, down from $4.54 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [12]. - Total liquidity stood at $5.5 billion, with $2.9 billion available on the revolving credit facility [12]. - Debt totaled $7.2 billion, with a debt-to-total capital ratio of 23.2% [14]. Fiscal 2025 Guidance Updated - The company expects consolidated revenues between $33.7 billion and $34.2 billion, down from the previous range of $33.3 billion to $34.8 billion, compared to $36.8 billion in fiscal 2024 [15]. - Homes closed are anticipated to be between 85,000 and 85,500, slightly reduced from the previous estimate of 85,000 to 87,000 [15]. Outlook - Estimates for the stock have trended downward, indicating a potential in-line return in the coming months [19].

Market Expectations & Rate Cuts - Market anticipates potential rate cuts, influencing stock market trends [1] - Rate cut hopes drive market leadership, especially in economically cyclical sectors [2] - Two-year yield at 375%, suggesting a modest easing cycle is probable [8] - Market implies the Fed may implement a 25 basis points cut in September [9] Sector Rotation & Performance - Homebuilders, biotech, and small caps show signs of revival, indicating a rotation from mega-cap stocks [2] - Homebuilders began to show trend changes 3-4 months prior to the report [3] - Global autos, including Toyota and GM, demonstrate resilience despite challenging macro conditions [4] - Small cap industrials and healthcare sectors are performing strongly [7] Economic Outlook & Curve Steepening - A steeper yield curve suggests a positive economic outlook [7] - The economy is considered to be in decent hands [7] - Homebuilding stocks, previously in a bear market with declines of 40-50%, may be recovering [10]

Home builders sentiment pulling back in August as elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic, ongoing supply side challenges, all weighing on the market. This comes as Warren Buffett's Bergkshire Hathaway increased its exposure to the sector last week. It did add shares of LAR.It initiated a stake as well in Dr. . Horton. Wed Bush analyst Jay McCandal joins us now.He's got his outlook for the sector. We also got some sentiment numbers at the top of the hour. Jay, despite what was a fall in mortgage rates, ...

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's share price is showing bearish technical signals, spending six consecutive weeks below its 200-day moving average, indicating potential long-term weakness [1][4] - The stock is currently consolidating under the long-term trend line after a significant pullback from record highs, reminiscent of the late-2022 base that preceded a strong rally [2] - A decisive close above the 200-day moving average would signal a trend resumption, while continued rejection could lead to a deeper retracement [4] Group 2 - Since Warren Buffett announced his intention to step down as CEO at the end of 2025, the stock has declined approximately 11%, although it remains up nearly 6% year-to-date, trading at $477 [5] - In the second quarter, Berkshire made significant portfolio moves, including a new $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth, which positively impacted the stock [7] - Berkshire initiated smaller positions in Allegion, D.R. Horton, Lamar Advertising, and Nucor, while fully exiting T-Mobile and reducing its Charter Communications holding by nearly half [7] Group 3 - Adjustments to core holdings included trimming 20 million shares from its approximately 300 million Apple stake and selling 26 million of its 630 million Bank of America shares [8] - Berkshire added 3 million shares of Chevron while maintaining long-standing positions in Coca-Cola and American Express [8] - Homebuilders emerged as a theme, with Berkshire increasing its stake in Lennar to about 7 million shares from just 150,000, indicating a portfolio tilt towards healthcare, energy, and housing [9]

value has been quietly outperforming growth this month. He says the shift is real. Joining me now, Charles Bravinskoy, vice chairman of Aerial Investments.It's good to see you today, Charlie. Okay, first of all, what do you make of the investments in uh Dr. . Horton and Lenar because you know I was looking at the front page of the Wall Street Journal right before I came on.Nobody's buying homes. Nobody's switching jobs. That's the headline.Yeah, I think uh it's clearly Buffett related here. He Buffett think ...

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) shares are experiencing upward movement, indicating a potential breakout that could lead to a new uptrend [1] Price Dynamics - Support levels are price points where buying interest is significant, preventing further declines, while resistance levels are where selling interest is high, halting price increases [2] - The stock previously fell sharply in late October, finding support around $151, but broke this support in December, leading to buyer regret [3][5] Market Behavior - Many investors chose to hold their losing positions, hoping to exit at breakeven, which resulted in a concentration of sell orders at the previous support level of $151, now acting as resistance [5] - A false breakout can occur when a stock appears to break resistance but quickly reverses downward [6] - A true breakout happens when buyers surpass sellers at resistance, indicating that sellers have exited the market, potentially leading to a new uptrend for D.R. Horton [7]

Group 1 - D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) shares have increased by over 17% following a positive earnings report, indicating that the worst of the cycle may be behind the company [1] Group 2 - The company aims to invest in firms with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals, and holding them long-term [2] - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a concentrated portfolio to avoid underperformers while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [2]

Group 1 - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, with a focus on banks, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines has influenced investment strategies, leading to diversification beyond traditional savings in banks and properties [1] - The investment approach has evolved from focusing solely on blue-chip companies to a more diversified portfolio across various industries and market capitalizations [1] Group 2 - The entry into the US market occurred in 2020, following a period of learning and analysis through platforms like Seeking Alpha [1] - The investor has holdings in US banks, hotels, shipping, and logistics companies, indicating a strategic approach to portfolio diversification [1] - The comparative analysis between the US and Philippine markets has been a key aspect of the investment strategy, enhancing market awareness and decision-making [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment perspective on D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), highlighting a previous hold rating due to valuation concerns despite a favorable demand outlook [1]. Company Analysis - D.R. Horton Inc. is noted for its decent demand outlook, which may present potential investment opportunities [1]. - The author emphasizes a cautious approach to the stock's valuation, indicating that it may not be an attractive buy at current levels [1]. Investment Strategy - The author employs a diverse investment strategy that includes fundamental, technical, and momentum investing, suggesting a comprehensive approach to capital management [1]. - The intention behind writing on Seeking Alpha is to track investment ideas and connect with like-minded investors, indicating a focus on community engagement and performance tracking [1].