We worry about drought, we worry about pricing. We worry about equipment. We worry about financing. This tariff is just another thing that we have to worry about.Todd Western, the third is a soybean farmer in Waterloo, Iowa. He says trade tensions between the U.S. and China are fueling uncertainty for his business. China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans, hasn't pre-purchased any soybeans for the upcoming US harvest.The revenue on our farm is just like any other farm. It's volatile. Western and other f ...

Core Insights - The investment approach focuses on identifying businesses with potential for long-term growth and significant terminal value generation [1] - Emphasis is placed on understanding core business economics, including competitive advantages, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] - The goal is to generate long-term free cash flow and create shareholder value through fundamental research in sectors with strong secular tailwinds [1] Investment Philosophy - The investor is self-educated and has been active in the investment field for 10 years, currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1] - The motivation for sharing insights on platforms like Seeking Alpha is to provide valuable analysis and receive feedback from other investors [1] - The analysis aims to help readers focus on the key drivers of long-term equity value, promoting both analytical rigor and accessibility [1]

Core Insights - Deere & Company (DE) stands out in the Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry with a dividend yield of 1.37%, surpassing the industry average of 1.20% [1] - The company has consistently increased its dividends since resuming growth in 2020, with a five-year dividend growth rate of 18% [2] - Despite facing sales declines and negative earnings growth, Deere has maintained a strong shareholder return strategy through regular dividend increases and share repurchases [3][4] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Deere raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.62 per share, marking the eighth increase in five years and more than doubling the payout from 76 cents [2][11] - In fiscal 2023, Deere returned $8.6 billion to shareholders, representing 73% of cash flow from equipment operations, with continued momentum into fiscal 2024 and 2025 [3] - The current payout ratio of 33.09% is higher than the industry benchmark of 25.75%, indicating a strong commitment to rewarding investors [1] Financial Performance and Projections - For fiscal 2025, Deere expects net income between $4.75 billion and $5.25 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of approximately 30% [5] - Cash flow from equipment operations is projected at $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion, with capital expenditures budgeted at around $1.4 billion, allowing for sufficient free cash flow to cover dividends [5] - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 indicate a decline of 27.5%, while fiscal 2026 shows a potential recovery with a 12% growth forecast [14] Market Position and Valuation - Deere's stock has gained 11.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 10.6% and the S&P 500's increase of 10.8% [12] - The company is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 23.10X, compared to the industry average of 21.27X [13] - Recent earnings estimates have been revised downward over the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [14]

♪♪ >>> THIS SUNDAY, TRADE TENSIONS. WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS HEADED TO THE SUPREME COURT, A NEW JOBS DATA FUELING DOUBT, WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY? >> IF YOU TOOK AWAY TARIFFS WE COULD END UP BEING A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY. >> I'LL TALK EXCLUSIVELY TO TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT. PLUS FILE FIGHT. AS CONGRESS RETURNS PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES. >> THIS IS A DEMOCRAT HOAX THAT NEVER ENDS. >> JUST PASS THE VOTE. LISTEN TO US. THIS IS NOT A HOAX. I'L ...

Joining me now is US Senator Amy Clolobachar, a Democrat of Minnesota. Senator Clolobachar, thank you for being with us. You just heard about >> again now. >> You just heard about the situation in Chicago and back in Washington DC.We're monitoring demonstrations against the federal crackdown there. What are your thoughts on the president's escalating targets of American cities, something he has now compared in his social media posts to waging war. >> It's unbelievable.I uh believe as someone who used to be ...

Tariffs and Trade - The administration believes good policies are in place to create high-paying jobs [1] - The US has lost 42,000 manufacturing jobs since the tariffs were announced in April [1] - John Deere reported a 29% decrease in net income in its most recent quarter due to higher tariffs, costing the company $300 million so far, with another $300 million expected by year-end, and laid off 238 employees [2] - Nike anticipates tariffs will cost the company around $1 billion this year, while Black & Decker expects $800 million in costs, and the big three automakers have paid over $2 billion in tariffs [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that 86% of the tariff revenue collected so far has been paid by American businesses and consumers [7] - The administration is confident it will win at the Supreme Court regarding reciprocal tariffs, but there are other avenues to take if not [12] - The administration may have to refund about half of the tariffs if the court rules against them [13] Economic Indicators and Policy - The National Economic Council Director called the jobs numbers "weak," and Moody's chief economist called it a "jobs recession" [1] - The Treasury Secretary anticipates a substantial acceleration in the economy by the fourth quarter [1] - The administration believes the Federal Reserve is too late in cutting rates [1] - The US bond market has been the best performing bond market in the developed world, attributed to tariff income and fiscal improvement [14] Federal Reserve - The administration is interviewing potential successors for Fed Chair Jerome Pal, whose term ends in May [15] - The administration seeks a Fed chair with an open mind who will factor in different policies [16] - The administration claims the Fed has consistently overestimated GDP when Democrats are in office and underestimated GDP when Republicans are in office [17] Russia and Sanctions - The administration is prepared to increase pressure on Russia and needs European partners to follow suit with sanctions and secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil [21][22]

But Mr. . Secretary, it's not just John Deere. We've heard from a lot of different companies around the country.Nine Nike says that tariffs will cost the company around $1 billion dollar this year. Black & Decker says $800 million. The big three automakers all say they've had to pay more than $2 billion in tariffs.The list goes on and on. Bottom line, do you acknowledge that these tariffs amount to attacks on the American people. Uh well, first of all, let let's back up because what we've seen, for instance ...

The last word with Lawrence O'Donnell starts right now. Hey, Lawrence. >> Hey, Jen.We have uh Abigail Spamberger joining us tonight, candidate for governor in Virginia, the most important election of the year, as you know. Of course, >> my home state. >> Yeah.And uh it's always it's um it's as if some uh political science class designed this that there's always the governor's election in Virginia the year after the presidential election because Virginia has that one term limit >> for the governor four years ...

The August jobs report was released moments ago, showing that the US added just 22,000 jobs last month, much much less than the 75,000 that economists expected. The unemployment rate also saw a slight increase to 4.3%. This, of course, the first jobs report released since President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month after that report showed not just a weak level of job creation, but also a dramatic reductions in previous month's totals.There's no way to sugarcoat this. This jo ...

Trade Policy & Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court is considering the legality of Trump's AIPA tariffs, which account for a significant portion of the $180 billion+ collected by the government this fiscal year [3] - A ruling against the tariffs could force the Trump administration to offer refunds, potentially causing chaos [3][4] - Experts note that a rapid decision from the Supreme Court is rare, usually requiring a hard deadline [6] - The Supreme Court may side with lower courts, finding that the president lacks the authority to impose these tariffs under the 1977 International Economic Power Emergency Act [9][10] - A base case scenario suggests a 50-65% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against the president's authority [12] Potential Economic Impact - Sectors like furniture, lumber, timber, aircraft, trucking, pharma, and semis could be aggressively hit if the AIPA authority is overruled [13][14] - Domestic importers, like those selling learning materials and companies like John Deere and Caterpillar, want refunds with interest if the tariffs are deemed illegal [17] - Refunds could amount to roughly $150 billion to $300 billion, creating a complicated process for the Treasury [18] - If the Supreme Court rejects the tariffs, Trump could still implement tariffs on specific sectors or pursue Section 301 investigations, similar to those already in place on $350 billion worth of goods from China [19][20] - Congress could grant the president the authority to tariff every single import, potentially costing the average family $2,700 per year [21] Tech Industry & White House - President Trump is hosting top business, political, and tech leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Tim Cook, at the White House [23][25] - The event is being called the "Rose Garden Club" and is seen as a way for Trump to showcase the remodeled Rose Garden patio [26][27]