Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. Let's focus on chip stocks. Now, Intel is selling off this morning after earnings.More on that momentarily, but here is the price action for the other major names in the space. So, we do have Nvidia high by 1 and a half% right now. AMD is also higher by 4% almost and Broadcom is lower on the day.So, a very mixed split picture across our major semiconductor stocks this morning. So, let's get the details on this. Intel is the focus of the morning trade.Obviously, joining us ...

Core Insights - Intel Corp. reported mixed fourth-quarter results, beating profit expectations but guiding for weaker near-term revenue and flat earnings, indicating uneven progress in its turnaround [1] - The company posted revenue of $13.67 billion, exceeding the consensus of $13.37 billion, while adjusted earnings reached 15 cents per share, surpassing expectations of eight cents [2] - Revenue declined 4% year over year, with strength in Data Center and AI partially offsetting weakness in the Client Computing Group [2] Financial Performance - For the first quarter, Intel forecasts revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, below the Street estimate of $12.49 billion, and guided for breakeven adjusted earnings, contrasting with expectations for a modest profit [2] - Analysts noted that tight chip supply continues to cap shipment volumes, particularly affecting Intel 10 and 7, where much of the company's output is concentrated [3] Analyst Perspectives - Needham analyst maintained a Hold rating, highlighting that Intel's guidance fell below both his forecast and Wall Street's despite beating fourth-quarter expectations [3] - Benchmark analyst reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price forecast to $57 from $50, suggesting that the stock pullback was driven by cautious guidance despite a solid quarter [5] - JP Morgan analyst maintained an Underweight rating and increased the forecast to $35 from $30, citing weaker guidance due to persistent internal wafer capacity limits [6] Market Outlook - Looking ahead, analysts expect Intel to streamline its server roadmap and accelerate product timing to mitigate share losses to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. [7] - JPMorgan's global team anticipates a 9% decline in PC shipments next year, but demand in Data Center and AI is expected to drive low- to mid-single-digit overall revenue growth for Intel this year [7] Stock Performance - Intel shares were down 15.70% at $45.78 at the time of publication [8]

分组1 - The company experienced strong data center demand in Q4 but provided weaker guidance for Q1 revenue and gross margins, leading to a 50% drop in shares [1] - Intel's management acknowledged being unprepared for the surge in AI server demand, resulting in capacity constraints on older manufacturing processes [1] - The CEO indicated that chip yields are below desired levels, contributing to further declines in stock value [1] 分组2 - Analysts noted that the stock had risen over 100% in the past year but was deemed overvalued at nearly 83 times 2027 earnings compared to 27 times for the SMH [2][1] - There is a cautious outlook on the company's turnaround, with investors potentially needing to wait longer for improvements [2] - The company is facing challenges in fulfilling demand due to older manufacturing processes and inventory depletion, with expectations of peak supply issues in Q1 [5][6] 分组3 - Nvidia is reportedly receiving favorable treatment from China regarding the approval of H200 chip shipments, which could benefit larger companies like ByteDance and Tencent [8] - The ongoing situation with China remains uncertain, but there are indications that sales of Nvidia chips may proceed [9]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are selling Intel shares after the company reported strong Q4 earnings but provided disappointing guidance, primarily due to demand outpacing supply [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Guidance - Intel's Q4 earnings exceeded market expectations, but the guidance was soft, indicating a mismatch between demand and supply [1]. - The company's management acknowledged that they do not have enough products to meet customer demand [1]. Group 2: Analyst Recommendations - Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya advises investors to sell Intel shares, citing valuation concerns despite the stock being up over 15% year-to-date [2][3]. - Arya's bearish stance is not linked to Intel's outlook but rather to its high valuation compared to competitors like Nvidia [3][4]. - Arya highlighted that Intel's stock is trading at 90 times price earnings, while Nvidia trades at about 25 times [4]. Group 3: Competitive Position and Future Outlook - Arya expressed concerns about Intel's ability to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor in manufacturing and with Nvidia or AMD in design in the near term [4]. - Intel's commitment to establishing chip manufacturing in the US is seen as positive, but it will take another two to three years to realize [6]. - The stock has appreciated ahead of what Intel can realistically deliver by 2026, suggesting a potential sell-off at current levels [6]. Group 4: Price Targets and Market Sentiment - Arya reiterated an "underperform" rating on Intel with a price target of $40, indicating a potential downside of 13% from current levels [7]. - Intel shares are currently above their 20-day moving average, and a drop below $44 could lead to increased downward momentum [7]. - Other Wall Street firms share a similar cautious view, with a consensus rating of "hold" and a mean target of about $41, suggesting over 10% downside potential [9].

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content delivered includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for being a forward-looking technology adopter, utilizing decades of expertise and experience among its content creators [4] - The company employs automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all published content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Group 1 - The Commerce Department acquired a total of 278 million shares of Intel by the end of the previous year [1]

分组1: Intel - Intel shares are declining due to a disappointing outlook and ongoing manufacturing issues, particularly supply constraints affecting their ability to meet demand for traditional CPUs and AI data center chips [1][5][6] - The company reported earnings of 15 cents per share, exceeding expectations of 8 cents, marking an 88% beat, but guidance for the upcoming quarter was disappointing due to supply chain challenges [18][19] - Intel's foundry business is a key focus for investors, with anticipation around potential customer announcements and the need for significant contracts before ramping up capital expenditures [9][14][21] 分组2: Broader Market - The S&P 500 is facing back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since June, indicating a volatile market sentiment [2][4] - Gold prices are rising, surpassing $4,900 per ounce, as investors shift money from stocks to gold, marking its best week since 2020 [5] - The technology sector is experiencing volatility, with concerns about AI investments and the overall market performance affecting investor sentiment [22][25] 分组3: TikTok - TikTok has finalized a deal to continue operating in the US, establishing a US entity led by Oracle to alleviate concerns about data security and potential bans [3][55] - The deal allows TikTok to retain its algorithm while ensuring US data is secured by American companies, addressing previous fears of foreign influence [56][58] - The platform currently has 200 million users and 7.5 million businesses utilizing its services, indicating its significant market presence [59] 分组4: Capital One - Capital One is acquiring Brex for over $5.1 billion, focusing on expanding its corporate credit card business [45][46] - The acquisition is structured as a 50/50 cash and stock deal, which may require issuing more stock and could impact investor sentiment due to recent earnings misses and increased provisions for credit losses [47][49] - The company reported a 64% increase in net interest from credit cards last quarter, highlighting its profitability despite current challenges [49] 分组5: Airlines - Airlines are facing significant disruptions due to a winter storm, with over a thousand flight cancellations expected, which could impact their financial performance [50][51] - The cancellations are likely to lead to increased costs related to travel vouchers and rescheduling, affecting the bottom line of the airlines involved [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - Intel Corp's stock has dropped 15.5% to $45.88 despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, primarily due to a forecast for first-quarter profit and revenue that fell below estimates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Intel reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations [1] - The company's forecast for first-quarter profit and revenue is below estimates, attributed to insufficient supply to meet seasonal demand [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Intel's stock had been performing well, reaching a four-year high of $54.60 in late December, with a year-over-year increase of 112.1% and a solid gain of 24.2% in 2026 [2] - The stock's recent pullback may have been anticipated, as indicated by a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 82.3, which is in "overbought" territory [2] Group 3: Options Trading Activity - There has been significant options trading activity, with 757,000 calls and 590,000 puts exchanged, which is six times the typical overall options volume [3] - The most popular option expiring today is the weekly 1/23 45-strike put, with new positions being opened [3]

Core Viewpoint - Intel is facing supply chain constraints and challenges in improving manufacturing yields, which are critical for stabilizing its market position and achieving growth in the server and PC segments [2][3][7]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Manufacturing - The CFO indicated that while supply chain improvements are ongoing, they are insufficient, leading to potential revenue loss in Q1 [2]. - The company is still working on enhancing yields for its 18A manufacturing node, which is essential for increasing capacity and stabilizing margins [3][7]. - Foundry services are a significant focus for Intel, with plans to ramp up advanced packaging and attract new customers, although this remains uncertain [4][7]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - Intel's stock experienced a 15% decline after a 40% increase earlier in the month, indicating volatility driven by market sentiment [5]. - Over the past year, Intel's stock has more than doubled, outperforming competitors like Nvidia and AMD, but is now facing challenges that could impact future performance [6]. - The current valuation is around five times forward sales, which some analysts consider high given the company's need to meet critical milestones [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Customer Engagement - Key milestones for Intel include stabilizing its server market share, improving the PC roadmap with Panther Lake, and achieving better yields on the 18A node [7][8]. - Customers may be hesitant to commit until they see Intel making capital expenditures to ramp up production, which is crucial for building confidence [8]. - Achieving good yields and meeting margin targets are essential for attracting and retaining customers in the long term [8].

Core Insights - Intel's stock surged 47% in the three weeks leading up to the earnings report, driven by market sentiment rather than fundamentals [1] - The earnings report did not meet the high expectations set by the recent stock performance, indicating a disconnect between market perception and company reality [1] Company Performance - The earnings report was anticipated to be "perfect" due to the stock's recent rise, but it ultimately fell short of expectations [1] - Analyst Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein highlighted that the stock increase was "mostly on vibes and tweets," suggesting a speculative nature to the recent price movement [1]