Core Viewpoint - Technology stock valuations are at all-time highs, but there are undervalued opportunities, particularly in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) [1][2][3] Company Overview - TSMC specializes in fabrication and foundry services, holding a 68% share of the global wafer foundry market [5][6] - The company plays a crucial role in the semiconductor supply chain, supporting major players like Nvidia and AMD [4][6] Market Trends - The total addressable market for semiconductors is projected to reach $996 billion by 2033, up from $530 billion two years ago [8] - The semiconductor foundry market is expected to grow at an 8.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2033, reaching $276 billion [8] - AI infrastructure spending could approach $7 trillion by the middle of the next decade, with chips and related hardware for AI data centers receiving nearly half of this investment [9] Growth Prospects - Rising demand for chips is a direct tailwind for TSMC's foundry business, with analysts forecasting continued revenue and earnings acceleration [11][14] - TSMC's current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.3 indicates it is trading at a discount compared to other leading chip stocks [12][15] Investment Opportunity - TSMC is viewed as a hidden bargain amidst overpriced growth stocks, presenting a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity for long-term investors [16]

Group 1 - Kennedy is a GARP-themed investor focusing on companies with aggressive growth prospects that are expected to become highly profitable within 1-2 years [1] - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term discipline, consistent alpha generation, and a consideration of risk [1] - The Curious Analyst is an associate of Kennedy Njagi, indicating a collaborative approach in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to any companies or industries [2]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with a projected EPS of $2.37, reflecting a 60.1% year-over-year increase [1][6]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSM's Q2 earnings is $2.37 per share, revised upward by 3 cents over the past week [1][2]. - Revenue expectations for TSM are between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with the consensus estimate at $30.04 billion, indicating a 44.3% increase from the previous year [2][5]. Earnings Surprise History - TSM has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.9% [3]. Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - TSM has an Earnings ESP of +3.25%, indicating a favorable outlook for earnings performance [4]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting positive market sentiment [4]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rebound driven by the increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, which is a significant growth catalyst for TSM [5][6]. - TSM's leadership in advanced chip technologies, particularly in 3nm and 5nm processes, is expected to contribute to its growth [6][8]. Strategic Investments - TSM is investing heavily in next-generation technologies, with a capital expenditure forecast of $38 billion to $42 billion for 2025, focusing on advanced manufacturing processes [20]. - The company is expanding into high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphone sectors, which are anticipated to enhance its performance [8][9]. Market Position and Valuation - TSM shares have increased by 16.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 7.4% rise [11]. - TSM is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 22.48X, lower than the sector average of 27.39X and peers like NVIDIA and AMD [14][17]. Future Outlook - AI-related revenues for TSM tripled in 2024 and are expected to double again in 2025, with a projected 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [19]. - The company's strategic focus on growth opportunities is likely to continue boosting its financial performance [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for GigaDevice and AP Memory, while upgrading AP Memory's price target to NT$390.00 from NT$235.00 [6][12][13]. Core Insights - The wafer-on-wafer (WoW) stacking technology is expected to significantly enhance edge AI computing capabilities by improving memory bandwidth and reducing power consumption, thus facilitating the adoption of advanced AI tools in various devices [8][10][39]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for WoW technology is projected to grow from US$10 million in 2025 to US$6 billion by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 257% [10][40][84]. - Specialty memory players are anticipated to benefit the most from WoW technology due to their technological readiness and market positioning [12][13][40]. Summary by Sections Industry View - The report highlights a shift in investment ratings for specific companies, with GigaDevice's price target raised to Rmb169.00 and AP Memory upgraded to "Overweight" [6]. Key Takeaways - WoW technology is set to unlock the potential of edge AI devices by addressing limitations in size, shape, and layout through 3D memory stacking [8]. - The current mainstream solution, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), is not suitable for edge devices due to cost and form factor constraints, making WoW a more viable alternative [9][10]. Market Potential - The TAM for WoW is expected to reach US$622 million by 2027, with significant growth anticipated in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [40][84]. - The report identifies key beneficiaries of WoW technology, including niche memory players like Winbond and GigaDevice, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging market [12][13][40]. Technology and Adoption - WoW stacking technology is compared favorably against HBM, with potential improvements in memory bandwidth by 10-100 times and a significant reduction in power consumption [10][39]. - The report outlines the main hurdles for edge AI deployment, including power consumption, memory bandwidth, and cost, which WoW technology aims to overcome [38][46].

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a crucial player in the AI chip manufacturing space, serving as a reliable partner for AI chipmakers despite not designing chips itself [1][7]. Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC is recognized as the world's most advanced semiconductor foundry, with major clients including Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Apple, giving it unmatched scale and technological leadership [2]. - The company has a significant market share lead in the advanced node market, outperforming competitors like Intel and Samsung [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Growth - In Q1, TSMC's revenue increased by 35% to $25.5 billion, driven by high-performance computing (HPC) growth, and preliminary Q2 revenue is estimated to have risen by 39% to $31.9 billion [4]. - Chips manufactured on 7nm and smaller nodes accounted for 73% of TSMC's revenue in Q1, up from 65% the previous year, with 3nm nodes contributing 22% [3]. Group 3: Pricing Power and Margins - TSMC's strong pricing power is evident as it raises prices to counteract margin dilution from new fabs, with gross margin rising by 190 basis points to 58.8% in Q1 [4][5]. - The company plans to increase AI chip prices, with Arizona-made chips potentially commanding a 30% premium [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Prospects - TSMC anticipates AI-related revenue to grow at a mid-40% compounded average growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years starting in 2024 [8]. - The company is also positioned to benefit from the growth of autonomous driving and robotaxis, which will require advanced chips [9]. Group 5: Investment Appeal - TSMC is viewed as a safe investment in the AI semiconductor space, as it provides manufacturing services to all major players without needing to bet on a single chipmaker [11]. - The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24 based on 2025 estimates and a PEG ratio of less than 0.7, indicating it is undervalued [12].

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has recently joined the trillion-dollar club, highlighting its significant growth and market leadership in the semiconductor industry Group 1: Market Position and Leadership - TSMC holds approximately 70% market share in the semiconductor foundry market, far surpassing its closest competitors, with no foreseeable path for rivals to catch up [3] - The company is a critical supplier for major tech firms, including Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and AMD, indicating its integral role in the tech ecosystem [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1, TSMC reported revenue of $25.5 billion, reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase, with net income rising 60% year-over-year in local currency, showcasing strong financial health [5] - TSMC's customers typically engage in long-term contracts, contributing to predictable revenue streams [7] Group 3: Growth Drivers - Demand for AI chips is surging, with management estimating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the mid-40% range for AI accelerator revenue until 2029 [8] - TSMC is expanding its operations internationally, establishing manufacturing plants in the U.S., Germany, and Japan to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with Taiwan [10] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The semiconductor industry has high barriers to entry, requiring significant capital investment and advanced technology, which keeps competitors at bay [9] - TSMC has a monopoly on the production of the most advanced semiconductors, with smaller manufacturing nodes (e.g., 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and upcoming 2nm) that enhance performance [14] Group 5: Investment and Future Outlook - TSMC is committed to growth, with capital expenditures expected to rise from over $30 billion in 2024 to between $38 billion and $42 billion in the current year, aligning with increasing demand for AI chips [15][17] - The company has demonstrated resilience since its inception in 1987, successfully navigating economic cycles and technological changes, positioning itself for long-term growth [18]

Group 1: Visa's Growth Potential - Visa processed $13.2 trillion in digital payments through 233.8 billion transactions last year, with 4.8 billion cards in circulation [4][5] - Visa benefits from multiple tailwinds including income growth, increased consumer spending, and the shift from cash to digital payments [5][6] - Revenue has increased by 171% over the past 10 years, and the company is focusing on value-added services which grew revenue by 22% year over year last quarter [6][7] - Visa's profit margins are high at 66%, and operating income is expected to double to between $50 billion and $100 billion in the next 10 years [8][9] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor's Explosive Growth - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors, with a revenue growth of 250% over the past 10 years to $97 billion [11][14] - TSMC's growth is driven by the increasing demand for AI-related chips from customers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, with expectations for revenue to exceed $250 billion in the next decade [13][14] - With profit margins around 45%, TSMC could achieve over $100 billion in annual earnings, positioning it alongside current technology giants [14][15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of innovation and disruption in the financial sector, particularly focusing on high-tech and early growth companies [1] Company Analysis - The analysis highlights a beneficial long position in TSM shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article reflects a personal opinion of the author, suggesting a strong belief in the potential of TSM and its market position [2] Industry Trends - There is a growing interest in growth buyouts and value stocks, which are seen as key investment opportunities in the current market landscape [1] - The pace of technological advancement is a critical factor influencing investment decisions in the industry [1]

Group 1 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is considered a crucial player in the world economy for the coming years [1] - The focus is on identifying companies with a market capitalization of less than $10 billion that can reinvest capital for impressive returns [1] - The ideal companies should demonstrate a long-term capability of capital compounding with a high compound annual growth rate to potentially deliver tenfold returns or greater [1] Group 2 - A conservative investment strategy is primarily adopted, with occasional pursuit of opportunities that have a favorable risk-reward ratio [1] - The approach emphasizes maintaining a long-term perspective on investments to generate higher returns compared to market indices [1] - The allocation of investments is carefully considered to maintain overall portfolio stability [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as In-Line [8]. Core Insights - The report addresses the mismatch in AWS Trainium2/2.5 chip shipments attributed to unstable PCB yield rates, with an expectation of approximately 1.1 million chip shipments in 2025 [1][3]. - Supply chain checks estimate total shipments for the Trainium2/2.5 life cycle (2H24 to 1H26) at 1.9 million units, with a focus on production and consumption in 2025 [2][11]. - The report highlights a significant gap between upstream chip production and downstream consumption, suggesting improvements in yield rates may reduce this gap by 2H25 [6][11]. Upstream - Chip Output Perspective - As of late 2024, 0.3 million units of Trainium2 chips were produced, with a projected total of 1.1 million shipments in 2025, primarily packaged by TSMC (70%) and ASE (30%) [3][11]. - An additional 0.5 million Trainium2.5 chips are expected to be produced in 1H26, bringing the total life cycle shipments to 1.9 million units [3]. Midstream - PCB Perspective - Downstream checks indicate potential shipments exceeding 1.8 million units of Trainium chips, averaging around 200K per month since April [4][11]. - Key suppliers for PCB boards include Gold Circuit and King Slide, which provide essential components for Trainium computing trays [4]. Downstream - Server Rack System Perspective - Wiwynn is identified as a key supplier for server rack assembly, with revenue from AWS Trainium2 servers increasing in 1Q25, aligning with the upstream chip production estimates [5][11]. - The report notes that each server rack can accommodate 32 chips, supporting the projected consumption figures [5]. Component Suppliers - Major suppliers for Trainium2 AI ASIC servers include AVC for thermal solutions, Lite-On Tech for power supply, and Samsung for memory components [10][18]. - Other notable suppliers include King Slide for rail kits and Bizlink for interconnect solutions [10][18]. Future Projections - For Trainium3, shipments are estimated at 650K for 2026, with production managed by Alchip [12][13]. - The report anticipates that Trainium4 will enter small production by late 2027, with a rapid ramp-up expected in 2028 [14].