以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘诗瑶 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 海外主要利率 货币市场计入全年86.8bps的降息幅度 1999年国际先驱论坛报撰写了一篇著名的评论，名为"Who Needs Gold When We Have Greenspan?"，放到今天来看，恍如隔世。 我们认为，在特朗普的影响下，谁会不想拥有黄金？ 需要过度担心回调压力吗？尽管有投资者担心，若中美贸易问题达成和解，推动金价上涨的"关税"因素可能弱化，导致金价回调。 但美国联邦债务正走向不可持续之路，其在充分就业状态下仍维持巨额赤字，特朗普的反复无常更加速暴露了美元信用问题。据世 界黄金协会数据，中国、日本的黄金储备占比均低于6%，而两国持有的美国国债均在1万亿美元左右。各国官方从美元储备向黄金 储备切换的配置需求，将长期推动黄金价格上涨。 为什么亚盘黄金如此强劲？4月以来，黄金内外盘溢价波动加剧，月初时溢价最高接近15元/克。我们分析，内盘需求持续旺盛的原 因可能有：一是商业银行黄金进口配额紧张，受人民 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink suggests updating the traditional 60/40 portfolio to a 50/30/20 allocation, reflecting changes in the investment landscape [1][4] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio consists of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, which can be easily managed with just two ETFs and two trades annually [2][3] - Fink's updated allocation includes 50% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 20% in alternative assets such as private equity, real estate, and infrastructure [4][8] Group 2 - The new asset classes proposed by Fink are seen as differentiated enough to warrant inclusion in a modern portfolio, acknowledging the evolution of investment opportunities [4][5] - Suggested ETFs for real estate and infrastructure include Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF with an expense ratio of 0.13% and SPDR S&P Global Infrastructure ETF with an expense ratio of 0.4% [6][7] - The shift to a 50/30/20 allocation is not considered radical, as it merely reallocates a small percentage from bonds and stocks to new asset categories [8][9]