Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing adjustments due to intensified geopolitical tensions, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the critical 20-day moving average [1] - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown while simultaneously increasing sanctions against China, including restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports and imposing high tariffs on Chinese shipping [1] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth materials and other critical resources, indicating a shift from defensive to offensive measures in trade relations [2] Group 2 - The global trend shows central banks, including China, are increasing gold reserves while reducing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, marking a significant shift in asset allocation [3] - The cobalt market is transitioning from a surplus to a shortage, with the Democratic Republic of Congo implementing export quotas that will likely drive prices higher [4][5] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt are adjusting their export quotas, indicating a strategic response to the changing market dynamics [4][5] Group 3 - The focus on companies such as Liqian Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jinchuan International highlights the investment opportunities in the resource sector amid changing geopolitical landscapes [6] - The Hang Seng Index is currently positioned at 26,290 points, with market sentiment leaning towards bearish due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations [7]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3222 trillion by the end of August 2025, marking an increase of $29.9 billion from the end of July, with a growth rate of 0.91% [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 7.406 million ounces (approximately 2306 tons) by the end of September [1][3] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves have shown a consistent growth trend in 2025, with only one month (July) experiencing a decline of $25.2 billion [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, alongside a slight fluctuation in the dollar index [2][3] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to enhance the stability and risk management of foreign exchange reserves [3][5] - The rise in gold reserves supports the internationalization of the Renminbi, as gold reserves are a key indicator of a country's currency creditworthiness [4] Economic Context - The current global economic uncertainty highlights the strategic value of China's $3.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves as a buffer against external risks [3] - The ongoing adjustments in the global economic landscape and the international monetary system are prompting a shift from dollar-denominated assets to gold and other physical assets [4][5] Market Dynamics - The dollar index remained stable at 97.8 in September, with market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts already priced in, leading to a release of downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Global financial asset prices have generally risen, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 3.5% in September, indicating strong market conditions [2]

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘诗瑶 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 海外主要利率 货币市场计入全年86.8bps的降息幅度 1999年国际先驱论坛报撰写了一篇著名的评论，名为"Who Needs Gold When We Have Greenspan?"，放到今天来看，恍如隔世。 我们认为，在特朗普的影响下，谁会不想拥有黄金？ 需要过度担心回调压力吗？尽管有投资者担心，若中美贸易问题达成和解，推动金价上涨的"关税"因素可能弱化，导致金价回调。 但美国联邦债务正走向不可持续之路，其在充分就业状态下仍维持巨额赤字，特朗普的反复无常更加速暴露了美元信用问题。据世 界黄金协会数据，中国、日本的黄金储备占比均低于6%，而两国持有的美国国债均在1万亿美元左右。各国官方从美元储备向黄金 储备切换的配置需求，将长期推动黄金价格上涨。 为什么亚盘黄金如此强劲？4月以来，黄金内外盘溢价波动加剧，月初时溢价最高接近15元/克。我们分析，内盘需求持续旺盛的原 因可能有：一是商业银行黄金进口配额紧张，受人民 ...