Group 1 - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) is currently viewed as one of the most profitable new stocks to buy, despite recent downgrades from analysts [1][5] - Susquehanna downgraded Kaspi.kz from Positive to Neutral and reduced its price target from $130 to $87, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1][5] - JPMorgan maintained a Hold rating on Kaspi.kz while lowering its price target from $96 to $88, reflecting concerns over slower fintech sector growth due to macroeconomic factors [2] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, Kaspi.kz reported a 10% increase in overall revenue and a 12% rise in net income, driven by strong performance in its Fintech and Payments segments [3] - Fintech revenue grew by 24%, while Payments experienced an 18% increase in Total Payment Volume, showcasing the company's robust operational performance [3] - The E-grocery business saw a significant 53% surge in GMV, and the advertising sector grew 56% year-over-year, indicating diverse growth avenues for the company [3]

Core Viewpoint - Kaspi.kz is set to report its financial results for the quarter and year ending December 31, 2025, on March 2, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am EST to discuss the results [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Kaspi.kz aims to enhance people's lives through innovative mobile products and services, operating a unique two-sided Super App model for consumers and merchants [3]. - The Super Apps provide access to leading Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech Platforms, facilitating transactions between consumers and merchants [4]. - The company has a significant stake in Hepsiburada, owning 85.17%, which is a leading e-commerce platform in Türkiye [5]. Group 2: Business Model and Growth - The combination of a large, engaged consumer and merchant base, along with high-quality digital products and a capital expenditure-light approach, contributes to strong top-line growth and a profitable business model [5]. - Kaspi.kz has been recognized in academia, with Harvard Business School producing two case studies on the company, which are taught to MBA students [6]. - The company has been publicly listed on Nasdaq since January 2024 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is considered an undervalued stock with significant growth potential in the Kazakh market, which is underpenetrated compared to Turkey, with growth rates potentially exceeding 20% [1] Company Analysis - The investment philosophy focuses on a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) approach, seeking companies with sustainable growth potential that are trading at attractive valuations [1] - The research process emphasizes fundamental analysis and unit economics as key indicators of a company's long-term viability [1] - Proprietary Excel models are built for each analysis to break down revenue streams and cost structures, providing a deeper understanding of the business mechanics [1] Market Insights - The Kazakh market is highlighted as having significant growth opportunities that are currently not fully realized, contrasting with the more saturated Turkish market [1]

Group 1 - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) is considered one of the most undervalued foreign stocks to buy, with analysts projecting a 12-month price target indicating over 23.8% upside and 67% of analysts maintaining a Buy rating [1] - Citi has reiterated a Buy rating on Kaspi.kz with a price target of $100, while J.P. Morgan has lowered its price target from $96 to $88, maintaining a Hold rating [2] - J.P. Morgan's analyst Reginald Smith noted that the cautious outlook for the fintech sector in 2026 is due to expected slower growth from a weaker labor market and tariffs, although tax rate cuts may offset this slowdown [3] Group 2 - Wall Street anticipates that Kaspi.kz will report revenue of approximately $2.31 billion and GAAP EPS of around $3.12 for fiscal Q4 2025 [4] - Kaspi.kz operates in three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, providing solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine [4]

Core Insights - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.89 times earnings [1] - It boasts a return on equity of 59.6% [1] - The company has a gross margin of 68% [1] - Revenue growth stands at an impressive 73% [1]

Group 1 - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) is considered one of the most undervalued fintech stocks to buy now, with Wolfe Research reiterating a Buy rating and a price target of $95 [1] - J.P. Morgan has a Hold rating on the stock, lowering its price target from $96 to $88, reflecting a cautious outlook on financial technology stocks due to expected slower growth in 2026 [2] - Kaspi.kz is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 24, with Wall Street expecting quarterly revenue of approximately $2.31 billion and a GAAP EPS of $3.12 [3] Group 2 - Kaspi.kz operates in three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, providing solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine [3]

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call covered various companies within the North American Internet sector, specifically focusing on web builders, digital advertising, eCommerce, EdTech, and online dating. Company-Specific Insights GoDaddy (GDDY) - Management is positive about GoDaddy's vibe coding strategy, focusing on current customers and web building, with cost guardrails in place [5] - The ANS marketplace was launched, but significant financial contributions are not expected until 2026 [5] - Growth drivers for A&C bookings in 2026 include Airo, P&B strategy, and seamless commerce experiences [5] - Airo is improving average order value (AOV) and retention metrics, with a focus on high lifetime value (LTV) customers [5] Wix (WIX) - Management expects approximately 25% free cash flow (FCF) margins in 2026, despite anticipated margin compression [7] - Gross margins are improving, but variability exists due to free users abandoning projects [7] - Wix is testing a new self-creator platform with more GenAI features, but price increases in 2026 are less likely [7] - Core Wix performance remains strong, but growth acceleration may be challenging [7] The Trade Desk (TTD) - Recent layoffs affected only 1% of headcount, aligning with product and engineering initiatives [8] - No expected impact from OMC and IPG consolidation; strong relationships with both companies [8] - Kokai adoption reached 85% in November, with expectations to reach 100% soon [8] Criteo (CRTO) - Management sees agentic commerce as a significant opportunity, leveraging commerce data for better ad spend efficiency [8] - Retail Media core is performing well, with good traction in auction-based display products [8] Zeta (ZETA) - OneZeta is a key growth factor for 2026, part of the Marigold acquisition strategy [9] - Athena is on track for general availability in 1Q, but management is cautious about setting high expectations [9] IAC (IAC) - Core assets are People and MGM, with management believing both are undervalued [9] - The M&A strategy will focus on digital publishing and content sites [9] eBay (EBAY) - Guidance indicates healthy US consumer spending but weak trends in Europe [10] - eBay's holiday window extends into 1Q, with a focus on collectibles [10] - Management expects to buy back 90-100% of normalized FCF in 2026 [10] Wayfair (W) - Management reiterated 4Q guidance, noting slight deterioration in industry volume levels [11] - Success in initiatives like loyalty programs and influencer marketing is driving share gains [11] - AI initiatives are expected to roll out in 2026, enhancing user experience [11] Duolingo (DUOL) - Focus remains on user growth trends, with certain features moved back in front of the paywall [12] - Management is experimenting with GenAI features to drive user engagement [14] Match Group (MTCH) - Product testing at Tinder is ongoing, with a focus on product outcomes over near-term monetization [15] - Face Check has been rolled out in the US, with revenue impact being optimized [15] Bumble (BMBL) - Management expects a peak in declines in 4Q, with initiatives aimed at improving user experience [15] - A new AI app is being tested to enhance onboarding and matching processes [15] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment across the companies indicates a cautious optimism, with many focusing on strategic initiatives to drive growth while managing costs and market challenges [5][7][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]

Group 1: Fintech Stocks Overview - Five fintech stocks to watch include Rocket Companies, UP Fintech, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, DeFi Development, and Society Pass, identified by MarketBeat's stock screener tool [2] - Fintech stocks represent companies that utilize technology to provide financial services, such as payment processing, digital banking, and online lending, offering exposure to innovation-driven growth in finance [2] Group 2: Rocket Companies (RKT) - Rocket Companies, Inc. is a fintech holding company that provides mortgage lending, title and settlement services, and other financial technology services in the U.S. and Canada [3] - The company operates through two segments: Direct to Consumer and Partner Network, with solutions including Rocket Mortgage, Amrock, Rocket Homes, and Rocket Loans [3] Group 3: UP Fintech (TIGR) - UP Fintech Holding Limited focuses on providing online brokerage services primarily for Chinese investors, offering a platform for trading stocks, options, and other financial instruments [4] - The company also provides value-added services such as investor education and community engagement [4] Group 4: Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz offers payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions in Kazakhstan, operating through three segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platform, and Fintech Platform [5] - The Payments Platform facilitates transactions between customers and merchants [5] Group 5: DeFi Development (DFDV) - DeFi Development is a B2B fintech marketplace that connects commercial property borrowers and lenders, aiming to enhance efficiency and transparency in the commercial real estate lending market [6] - The platform provides technology to assist borrowers in refinancing, building, or purchasing commercial properties [6] Group 6: Society Pass (SOPA) - Society Pass Incorporated operates fintech and e-commerce platforms across multiple countries, including Singapore, Vietnam, and the U.S., focusing on various segments such as online grocery delivery and digital marketing [7][8] - The company aims to serve both consumers and merchants through its diverse range of services [8]

Group 1: Energy Sector - Equinor (EQNR) ranks first with an Acquirer's Multiple (AM) of 2.3 and a free cash flow yield of 11.9%, demonstrating efficient conversion of commodity income into excess cash despite market pessimism regarding earnings normalization [2] - Petrobras (PBR) is highlighted as one of the cheapest major producers with an AM of 4.3 and a remarkable 27.7% shareholder yield, indicating strong operational execution amidst political challenges [3] Group 2: Financial Sector - Synchrony Financial (SYF) appears with an AM of 2.6 and a 9.0% shareholder yield, yet the market undervalues its strong fundamentals due to fears of a consumer-credit downturn [4] Group 3: Global Diversification - Kaspi.kz (KSPI) shows an extraordinary 42.7% free cash flow yield and an AM of 5.4, with its fintech ecosystem underappreciated by Western investors despite delivering strong returns and margin expansion [5] Group 4: Materials Sector - Alcoa (AA) has an AM of 6.7 and a 4.5% free cash flow yield, positioned for upside as metals sentiment remains cautious, with investors pricing in prolonged commodity weakness [6] Group 5: Defensive Value - A mix of utilities and essential-service companies are appearing at attractive valuations, providing reliable earnings and stable cash flow, serving as a counterweight to the more volatile sectors [7] Group 6: Macro Context - The market shows a consistent pattern of deep value in Energy, Financials, and Materials, with these sectors generating robust free cash flow and improving balance sheets, yet facing market pricing that may overstate risks [8] Group 7: Bottom Line - The analysis indicates that the deepest value exists in capital-intensive companies producing significant free cash flow, presenting a durable source of potential alpha for disciplined value investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - Kaspi.kz is identified as a promising tech stock, but JPMorgan has lowered its price target for the company, reflecting a cautious outlook for the fintech sector in 2026 due to economic factors [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Kaspi.kz reported a total revenue increase of 20% year-over-year, reaching KZT797 billion, excluding Turkey [2]. - Total Payment Volume (TPV) grew by 18%, while transaction volume increased by 14% [2]. - The fintech segment's revenue rose by 24%, driven by a 16% increase in Total Financial Engagement (TFE) and strong performance in merchant lending [3]. - The fintech loan portfolio expanded significantly, growing by 30% year-over-year [3]. - Advertising revenue surged by 56%, supported by new services enabling merchants to advertise on platforms like Facebook and Instagram [3]. Company Overview - Kaspi.kz operates in three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, providing solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine [4].