Core Insights - The article introduces Arav Shah as a new contributing analyst for Seeking Alpha, highlighting the opportunity for others to share investment ideas and get published [1]. Group 1 - Arav Shah is a second-year finance student at Northeastern University with a long-standing passion for investment, having started at the age of 14 [2]. - Shah is committed to deepening his knowledge in finance and aims to become an expert in the field [2]. Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure stating that the author has no current stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned but may initiate a long position in MRK within the next 72 hours [3]. - Seeking Alpha emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that no specific investment recommendations are provided [4].

July 3, 2025 03:28 AM GMT M Foundation Investor Presentation | Japan Pharmaceuticals Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Shinichiro Muraoka Equity Analyst Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5424 Jaeheon Lee Equity Analyst Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8443 Pharmaceuticals Japan Industry View In-Line Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of i ...

Is it worth it to buy a stock after it experiences significant market gains? The answer is, it depends. Some companies don't have much growth fuel left in the tank after a nice run, while others still boast significant upside potential after juicy gains. It's best to stay away from the former, but the investing wisdom according to which we should "buy low" still applies to the latter.Let's consider two companies that have performed exceptionally well recently but still have excellent long-term prospects: Su ...

Core Insights - Merck's Keytruda, a PD-L1 inhibitor, is the primary revenue source, contributing approximately 50% of pharmaceutical sales and driving top-line growth [1] - The company is heavily reliant on Keytruda, which is set to lose exclusivity in 2028, prompting strategies for long-term growth [2][3] - Merck is developing a subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda and diversifying its product lineup, particularly in non-oncology areas [3] Winrevair Development - Merck is optimistic about Winrevair, a newly launched pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) drug, to enhance revenue post-Keytruda exclusivity [4] - Winrevair received FDA approval in March 2024 based on the STELLAR study, with EU approval following in August 2024 [4] - The drug has shown significant efficacy in late-stage studies, leading to early stoppages due to overwhelming results [6][8] Regulatory Updates - The FDA has accepted Merck's supplemental biologics license application (sBLA) for Winrevair, with a decision expected on October 25, 2025 [7][10] - The ZENITH study demonstrated a meaningful reduction in morbidity or mortality events, supporting the drug's efficacy [6] Financial Performance - Winrevair generated $280 million in sales in Q1 2025, with expectations for increased revenue following a successful label update [11] - Merck's shares have decreased by 17.1% year-to-date, contrasting with a 0.6% decline in the industry [15] - The company's price/earnings ratio is currently 8.84, lower than the industry average of 15.05, indicating attractive valuation [16] Market Competition - Winrevair faces strong competition in the PAH market from United Therapeutics and Johnson & Johnson, which have established products and significant sales [11][12]

Core Insights - AbbVie has emerged as a top performer in the healthcare sector, with its stock increasing by 6% while the S&P 500 healthcare index declined by 1%, reflecting strong investor confidence in its transformation strategy post-Humira [2] - The company faces significant challenges due to the decline in Humira sales, which dropped 58% from a peak of $21.2 billion in 2022 to $9 billion last year, highlighting a substantial revenue gap [3] - AbbVie has adopted an aggressive acquisition strategy, totaling over $22 billion since the start of 2024, aimed at diversifying its portfolio and securing leadership in high-growth therapeutic areas [5] Acquisition Strategy - The acquisitions include ImmunoGen for $10.1 billion, Cerevel Therapeutics for $8.7 billion, Aliada Therapeutics for $1.4 billion, and Capstan Therapeutics for up to $2.1 billion, among others, indicating a strategic focus on oncology, neuroscience, and Alzheimer's [7] - AbbVie's past success with acquisitions, such as the collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim that led to Skyrizi, which generated $11.7 billion in sales in 2024, serves as a model for potential future successes [6] Financial Performance - Despite the decline in Humira sales, AbbVie achieved 4% revenue growth last year, demonstrating the resilience of its broader portfolio and the initial benefits of its acquisition strategy [8] - The company anticipates revenue growth accelerating to high single-digits in the coming years, with even greater earnings growth expected as margins improve [8] Valuation and Market Position - AbbVie's stock is currently trading at approximately $190 per share, with a valuation of 18.5 times its trailing adjusted earnings of $10.27 per share, representing a premium compared to its historical average of 14x and other major pharmaceutical competitors [9][10] - The elevated valuation reflects investor confidence in AbbVie's growth strategy and operational capabilities, supported by a robust revenue growth trajectory and ongoing pipeline expansion [11] Balance Sheet Considerations - AbbVie currently holds $70 billion in debt against a market capitalization of $336 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 21.3%, which is moderately above the S&P 500 average [12] - The company's cash position is concerning, with only $5.2 billion in cash and equivalents out of $136 billion in total assets, leading to a low cash-to-assets ratio of 3.8%, which may limit future strategic opportunities [13] Strategic Outlook - AbbVie's transition from reliance on Humira to a diversified pharmaceutical company represents a significant strategic shift, positioning it as a potentially attractive long-term investment for those willing to accept balance sheet risks and a premium valuation [14]

Ted Waller is a private investor who bought his first stock at age 13 (GTE) and has over 55 years of investing experience. His focus is on value and favorable risk/reward ratio, and special situations. Acquiring wealth is an incremental process that requires setting goals, adherence to principles, and patience.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the pu ...

Core Insights - Esperion has appointed Craig Thompson, CEO of Cerevance, as an independent director on its Board of Directors, expanding the board to eight members [1][2]. Company Overview - Esperion Therapeutics is a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and marketing innovative medicines for cardiovascular disease, specifically targeting patients with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) [7]. - The company has developed the only FDA-approved oral, once-daily, non-statin medications for at-risk cardiovascular patients, supported by the nearly 14,000 patient CLEAR Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial [7]. Leadership Experience - Craig Thompson brings over 20 years of biopharmaceutical leadership experience, with a strong background in pharmaceutical commercialization and clinical development, which aligns with Esperion's mission [2][3]. - Prior to joining Esperion, Mr. Thompson held leadership roles at various biotechnology companies, including Cerevance, Neurana Pharmaceuticals, and Anthera Pharmaceuticals, and has experience in global marketing at Pfizer and Merck [4][5][6]. Strategic Focus - The appointment of Mr. Thompson is expected to enhance Esperion's strategic insight and operational expertise as the company aims to expand its impact in cardiovascular and cardiometabolic drug development [2][3]. - Esperion is advancing its pre-clinical pipeline and focusing on developing ATP citrate lyase inhibitors (ACLYi), which are expected to enable rational drug design and the development of highly potent inhibitors [7][8].

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 39 years of trading experience, emphasizing his contrarian stock selection style and the development of a system called "Victory Formation" for identifying stocks based on supply/demand imbalances [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Paul Franke suggests using a diversified approach by owning at least 50 well-positioned stocks to achieve regular stock market outperformance [1]. - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles focus on deep value candidates or stocks that are experiencing a significant reversal in technical momentum to the upside [1]. - The "Volume Breakout Report" articles discuss positive trend changes supported by strong price and volume trading action [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of June 2025, Paul Franke was ranked in the Top 4% of bloggers by TipRanks for 12-month stock picking performance based on suggestions made over the last decade [1]. - He was consistently ranked among the top investment advisors nationally for stock market and commodity macro views during the 1990s [1]. - Franke achieved the 1 ranking in the Motley Fool CAPS stock picking contest during parts of 2008 and 2009, out of over 60,000 portfolios [1].

Group 1 - Merck & Co., Inc. acquired Prometheus Biosciences for $11 billion, enhancing its pipeline amid high demand [1] - The investment group "Value In Corporate Events" focuses on identifying opportunities in major corporate events such as IPOs, M&A, and earnings reports [1] - The service covers approximately 10 major events monthly, aiming to find the best investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen is competing in the rapidly growing obesity drug market, which is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with its drug MariTide being a key focus in this race [1]. Company Overview - Amgen is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, designed for convenient monthly dosing via an autoinjector, distinguishing it from competitors' weekly injection options [2]. - In phase II studies, MariTide demonstrated an average weight loss of approximately 20% over 52 weeks in obese or overweight individuals without type II diabetes, although this was at the lower end of investor expectations [3]. - Amgen has initiated two phase III studies for MariTide as part of its MARITIME program, with additional studies planned for 2025 targeting various cardiovascular conditions [4]. Competitive Landscape - The obesity drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Viking Therapeutics developing their own candidates, such as VK2735, which is being evaluated in late-stage studies [6]. - Other major pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Merck, and AbbVie, are also entering the obesity space, potentially challenging the market positions of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [7]. Financial Performance - Amgen's stock has increased by 8.9% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average decline of 0.7% [8]. - The company's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.26, which is lower than the industry average of 14.87 and below its five-year mean of 13.77 [10]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen upward revisions, with the consensus for 2025 rising from $20.57 to $20.82 per share and for 2026 from $21.13 to $21.29 per share [11].