Market Observations & Dot-Com Era Comparison - The report suggests the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble has been bursting for weeks, drawing parallels to the year 2000 dot-com collapse [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 228 points, the S&P 500 tumbled 1.16%, and the NASDAQ plunged 1.81% [5] "Lazy Susan" Deals & Ethical Concerns - The report defines a "lazy Susan deal" as an investment where the money is immediately returned to the investor's company through purchases [3] - Such deals are considered legally and ethically problematic from an investor's perspective [3] - OpenAI is reportedly in talks to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon, with some funds potentially used for Amazon's AI chips, raising concerns about "lazy Susan" deals [6] Personal Experience & Cautionary Tale - The author recounts a past experience where they were asked to invest in a company in exchange for purchasing goods from that company [1][2][3] - The author's lawyer advised against the deal, which proved wise as the other company later collapsed [3][4]

All right. Uh, you know, we don't talk a lot about oil recently. Uh, right now we're seeing oil move to the upside on on potential sanctions on Russia and sanctions on Venezuela.Does that change your view of the energy sector in any way. Yesterday, we saw every uh stock in the energy sector close lower. It closed down about 3%.Does it reshape any views for you. >> I think it's still a little bit too early to tell on that. I mean, we're certainly seeing moves, certainly seeing moves this morning on that news ...

All right, let's talk about this action in the private markets. Let's start off with SpaceX. The fact it's getting up to a $800 billion valuation.Clearly, there's a lot of demand for those shares. Part of the company's plan, just to be fair, is to build data centers up in space, here on land, here on Earth. We're seeing a lot of questions about the data center buildout.What's going on with that divergence. >> It's just one of the hottest private companies in the world. You're seeing SpaceX and a couple of t ...

All right. So, Rob, you have a 315 price target outperform rating. The street has it at 3 uh, excuse me, 336.So, you're a bit less bullish than your colleagues, but you still say that this is a buying opportunity. So, if you're less bullish, why do you still think this is a buying opportunity. What is exactly is the opportunity here.Well, I mean, first of all, Frank, the the the price targets are are hard to formulate right now because the numbers for free cash flow are so are so wildly variant and and that ...

A lot of great startup ideas are sort of in this gray area of like the law is not totally clear. It's a little bit murky whether it's legal or illegal. Even Open AI is like that, right.I mean, they they crawled the entire web without permission. You could argue that that's fair use or you could argue it's like massive copyright theft. I remember talking to the Lyft founders the week before they launched Lyft and they were extremely worried that they would go to jail and they decided to like roll the dice an ...

as well. And Dan, thank you for joining us. We're going to talk about Microsoft and Steve Kovak in just a minute based on this was going to be, by the way, the Microsoft stuff, our top of the show, as we call it, our lead in industry parliament.But when you got Jensen Wong making off-the- cuff comments to Emily Wilkins on Capitol Hill, we got to lead with that. Anything that you may have heard from Wong or anything recently that you have heard from him and Nvidia that changes your thesis on the AI game. No, ...

Nvidia's Market Position and Technology Transition - Nvidia's CFO suggests a shift from 90% CPU to 90% GPU in PC servers, indicating Nvidia's dominance in GPU technology [1] - New orders for Nvidia products are additive, meaning Blackwell doesn't replace previous iterations, highlighting sustained demand [1] Financial Performance and Capex Concerns - The CFO believes that concerns about excessive capex are unfounded, as companies are generating substantial revenue from Nvidia [1] - The report implies that companies are making significant profits from Nvidia's technology, despite claims to the contrary [2] Competition and Open AI - Open AI is identified as a key player in the industry [2] - The report suggests Open AI faces competition and scrutiny, advising a cautious approach [3][4] Strategic Considerations - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is highlighted as a significant entity [2]

Market Sentiment & Risk Aversion - Markets are in risk-off mode, influenced by potential Federal Reserve dovishness and crypto market risk aversion signals [1] - Algorithms are trading off Bitcoin as a proxy for risk aversion, with risk sentiment declining [4][9] - A backup in Japanese bond yields and a rise in the yen's price contribute to risk aversion, making carry trades more difficult [5] Interest Rates & Fed Policy - Markets had priced in a potential rate cut, with Fed funds expectations improving significantly [2][7] - The rally in the market was initially driven by improved Fed rate cut expectations, increasing from approximately 30% to over 80% [7][8] - The market is trading off the probability of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [10] - Concerns may arise regarding a rekindling of inflation if the Fed pursues a policy of lower rates indefinitely [9] AI & Technology - There's a reassessment of whether AI is bringing bottom-line efficiencies to end-users, not just producers and hyperscalers [12] - The market is becoming more discriminating about AI investments, focusing on the end results [12] - Enthusiasm for the AI trade may be temporarily diminished, but the underlying mentality remains strong due to its dominant force in the market [11][12] Market Catalysts & Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and incoming economic data will be significant catalysts [13] - The market will likely enter a low-volume period, with seasonality and Santa Claus rallies becoming a focus [14] - Window dressing occurred at the end of the month, contributing to market movements [3][4]

Industry Shift & Technological Advancement - The computing world is undergoing a platform shift from classical general-purpose computing on CPUs to accelerated computing on GPUs [3] - This platform shift towards accelerated computing is driven by efficiency, regardless of AI or chatbots [4] - General-purpose computing is reaching its limits as Moore's Law slows down [5] - AI is transforming various industries beyond chatbots, including physical AI, industrial AI, robotics, sciences, and digital biology [5] Investment & Sustainability - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of capital expenditure (CAPEX) for hyperscalers investing in AI for data centers [2] - The cash flow of the world's hyperscalers is fundamentally supporting this platform shift [4] Industrial Applications - Accelerated computing and AI are revolutionizing foundational industrial tools, making them essential [7] - These industrial applications are less visible to consumers but critical for companies using tools from Synopsys, Cadence, and others [6]

Market Trends & Competition - The AI sector is characterized by a race to the frontier, with companies like Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Microsoft competing to achieve artificial general intelligence [2] - Model leapfrogging is expected to continue with each iteration of GPT, Gemini, Claude, and XAI [2] - Investors should be concerned if models stop leapfrogging each other, as it would suggest diminishing scaling laws and potentially slow infrastructure demand [4] Infrastructure & Investment - Remarkable Nvidia earnings and Gemini 3 imply that scaling laws are firmly intact, leading to aggressive demand for GPU/TPU accelerators during the training phase [2] - Hyperscalers continue to raise capex expectations, indicating sustained investment in infrastructure [6] - The infrastructure build is expected to be prolonged due to natural governors such as data center construction speed, permitting, and power availability [6] - Every GPU from TSMC's foundry has high demand, indicating that the deployment of these assets into data centers is just beginning [6] Risk Assessment - The market may take a breather after a strong infrastructure trade, but recent data has not changed expectations for the infrastructure build [5][6] - Short-lived assets like GPUs/TPUs are not deployed until the data center shell is up and power is available due to high carrying costs [6]