This morning, though, we get results from Target. Target and target narratives, profit forecasts, as we were talking about discounts and slowing demand weighing on earnings. Bloomberg retail reporter Emily Cohen joins us now.So what are we learning about the consumer that we're already a little bit worried about, Emily. Yeah, I mean, Target is seeing a consumer that is shopping. It's spending, not leaning into the the discretionary things that target is known for.The the retailer trimmed its forecast again ...

after what we saw yesterday and now this morning following Cororeweave's earnings. Again, we just mentioned uh Megga Cap Tech uh MAX7 I should say, adding over $500 billion in market cap and this morning under pressure once again following Coree. Are you starting to get concerned about some of the volatility in the tech trade.>> I I think it's actually been pretty volatile for a while. Um I I made a call uh at the end of last year saying that a VIX which is like volatility of volatility uh would be elevated ...

Core Insights - Peter Lynch, a legendary fund manager, achieved an annualized return of 29.2% while managing the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, growing it from $18 million to $14 billion [5][6]. - Lynch emphasizes the importance of understanding what one is buying and suggests that investors should write down their reasons for purchasing a stock before buying it [7][10]. - He warns that the real danger in investing is not market volatility but being scared away by it, noting that the average stock on the NYSE experiences a 100% annual volatility [8][9]. Investment Philosophy - Lynch's key investment principle is to know what one is buying; if an investor cannot explain their investment to an 11-year-old in a minute, they should not buy it [10][81]. - He believes that successful investing is not about predicting the future but understanding the present and relying on diligence, common sense, and real-world observation [13][110]. - Lynch advises investors to write a script before buying stocks, detailing why they are buying and why the stock is undervalued [84][91]. Market Insights - Lynch acknowledges the current high valuations in the market, with the S&P 500 trading at a 22x P/E ratio, which he does not consider catastrophic [11]. - He expresses skepticism about the AI hype, stating he has not invested in any AI stocks and only recently learned how to pronounce "Nvidia" [10][161]. - Lynch reflects on the market's tendency to overlook companies that are undervalued or in distress but have potential for recovery, suggesting that these can be lucrative investment opportunities [170][171]. Personal Experience and Lessons - Lynch shares his journey from being a caddy to becoming a successful analyst at Fidelity, highlighting the importance of real-world experience in understanding investments [32][39]. - He recounts the pressure of managing funds for many American families and how he navigated market downturns by maintaining confidence in his investments [22][24]. - Lynch emphasizes that ordinary investors can succeed by applying diligence and common sense, rather than relying solely on complex models or predictions [172][174].

And maybe you buy stuff while watching stuff. Well, Amazon certainly hopes so, and it's kicking off its big deal Prime Days tomorrow with Walmart and Target holding their own sale events this week. Target obviously the notable underperformer of the group, down more than 30% this year and announcing a CEO change.Let's bring in a retail analyst that knows or has forgotten more about retail that most of us have ever known. That is Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO and chief research partner. How was that ...

Inflation Concerns - Service sector inflation is showing signs of life, with prices paid by service sector companies for inputs increasing, suggesting upside risks to service sector inflation [1] - Services make up 60% of the CPI index, so a higher rise in service sector inflation suggests that overall inflation may be more sticky and elevated [1] - The consensus forecast expects inflation to be 3% for the next 12 months, while the Fed's target is 2%, indicating a potential upside risk to inflation if the economy doesn't slow down [2] - Goods inflation is moving higher partly because of tariffs, and service sector inflation is also showing upward pressure, leading to the conclusion that a pause in rate cuts may be warranted to assess alternative inflation indicators [2] - If inflation stays higher for longer, consumers will face higher prices, impacting real spending, especially for price-sensitive consumers [2] Economic Outlook - The absence of government data on non-farm payrolls and inflation makes it challenging for markets and the Fed to assess the true state of the economy [1] - Economists have been predicting slowdowns that haven't materialized, and the delayed negative effects of the trade war may not arrive, suggesting the economy may not slow down as expected [1] - Alternative data sources to watch in the absence of government data include Redbook same-store retail sales (weekly), OpenTable restaurant data (daily), and Star hotel data (weekly) [1] AI Impact - The AI story now makes up 35% of the S&P 500, with the 10 biggest stocks accounting for almost 40% of the overall S&P, indicating a high concentration [2] - Larger companies are beginning to report a slowdown in their adoption rate of AI, posing a risk to the economic outlook if the AI story starts to fade [3] - There is a very high concentration in the AI story that's driving the stock market forward, which is somewhat disconnected from what's going on in the economic outlook [5]

Consumer Spending Trends - High-income shoppers are increasingly shopping at discount retailers like Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree [1] - High-income consumers are spending more at resale companies, indicating a search for deals and value [7] - Low-income consumers are not holding up as well, showing pullback on discretionary items like travel and full-service restaurants [7][8] Retailer Performance - Luxury goods are showing weakness, potentially benefiting mid-range brands like Coach [4] - Off-price retailers such as TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Burlington are performing well [6] - Resale companies like Savers Value Village and Depop are among the best-performing sectors [6] Pricing and Inflation - Retailers are finding it difficult to pass on price increases to consumers [9] - Pricing at Walmart and Target has been rangebound, with no broad-based price increases outside specific categories [10][11] - Fast fashion company Shein successfully raised prices after the de minimis exemption was removed [12] Economic Outlook - Overall consumer spending is holding up relatively well, better than feared [13] - The high-income consumer is crucial to overall spending, and their behavior during the holiday season is a key indicator for the retail landscape [13][14]

mentioning some weakness. But it does seem to have come back and they've regained confidence a little bit. Look, the takeaway from Ross and TJ Maxx is off.Price is the way to go. That's what's working in this consumer environment. Pressure on the low income consumer trade down from the upper income consumer.Everybody wants a deal. That's why these stocks are the performance of these retailers are quite good right now. >> Yeah.Let's get the opening bell here in the real time experience in the big board. It's ...

Financial Performance - TJ Maxx's parent company raised its full-year earnings per share outlook [1] - The improved outlook follows better-than-expected results in the most recent quarter [1] Market Trends - Shoppers wary of economic uncertainty are turning to discounters like TJ Maxx [1]

ThredUp (TDUP) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ThredUp (TDUP) - **Industry**: Resale and second-hand apparel market - **Founded**: February 2009 - **CEO**: James Reinhart Key Financial Metrics - **Q1 Revenue**: $71 million - **Gross Margins**: 79% - **EBITDA Margin**: 5% - **Stock Performance**: Up over 400% year-to-date [3][14][15] Core Business Insights - ThredUp aims to transform the resale sector by leveraging technology to create the world's largest resale platform for apparel, shoes, and accessories [2][3]. - The company has processed over 200 unique second-hand items, indicating a significant scale in operations [3]. - ThredUp has achieved seven consecutive quarters of EBITDA positivity and has been cash generative for several quarters [14][15]. Market Dynamics - The resale industry has seen a shift from growth at all costs to a more disciplined approach focusing on profitability [11][14]. - The second-hand market is expected to grow at strong double-digit rates, driven by changing consumer behaviors, particularly among younger generations who view second-hand shopping as a norm [42][43]. - The company has positioned itself to benefit from potential increases in new apparel prices due to tariffs, making ThredUp a more attractive option for consumers [39][40]. Competitive Landscape - ThredUp competes with off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, but there are no current merger plans [20][21]. - The company has established itself as a marketplace rather than a traditional retailer, which provides competitive advantages [62][64]. - The rise of peer-to-peer platforms may lead to a race to zero in seller fees, impacting the overall market dynamics [48][50]. Technological Advancements - ThredUp has invested heavily in AI to improve product discoverability and customer experience, resulting in significant improvements in conversion rates [27][29][55]. - The implementation of AI-driven search capabilities has allowed for better tagging and personalization of products, enhancing the shopping experience [27][29]. - The company has seen a 95% year-over-year growth in new customer acquisition, indicating successful marketing and product strategies [18][19]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are increasingly seeking convenience, leading to a preference for platforms that simplify the selling and buying process [35][51]. - The company anticipates that the trend of laziness among consumers will continue, necessitating a focus on making the resale process as easy as possible [35][51]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The CEO acknowledges the challenges faced in the past, particularly with international operations, but is optimistic about focusing on the U.S. market moving forward [79][80]. - ThredUp's future growth will depend on its ability to leverage technology and maintain a competitive edge in the evolving resale market [80]. Additional Insights - The company has been a pioneer in the "resale as a service" (RAS) model, collaborating with various brands to enhance its market presence [24][25]. - ThredUp's efforts to destigmatize second-hand shopping have contributed to its growth and acceptance in the mainstream market [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the ThredUp FY Conference, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, technological advancements, and future outlook.